Syria Policy Research Articles

Martyrs as a conduit for legitimacy – explaining Iran’s foreign policy towards Syria

What explains the Islamic Republic of Iran’s considerable financial, military and diplomatic support for the nominally secular Bashar al-Asad government in the wake of the 2011 Syrian uprising? Iranian foreign policy is subject to realist considerations (security and power). However, realism does not adequately explain Iran’s Syria policy since 2011, given the price Iranian citizens are paying in casualties on the Syrian battlefield. This paper uses a constructivist framework to examine the role of identity in Iran’s foreign policy towards Syria. Moreover, it sketches Eid al-Ghadir as an identity marker for Twelver Shia Muslims. The aim of this paper is to show that Iranian martyrs are not only a consequence of Iran’s foreign policy towards Syria, but that martyrdom serves as a conduit for legitimacy.

Hybrid Warfare: A Reorientation of Russian foreign policy in Syria

The primary focus of this research is to understand Russian hybrid warfare as a tool of Russian Foreign policy in contemporary Syria. Although hybrid warfare is not new, however Russian focus on hybrid warfare appears to signal a reorientation of its foreign policy, most visibly in Syria. Russian resurgence has caused a stir in the international community, particularly after the 'colour revolution' in Georgia in 2008. The threat seems to have grown with the Crimean Annexation of 2014 and the alleged Russian role in the U.S presidential election 2016. Russian hybrid warfare became noticeable in the Middle East, specifically in Syria after the infamous 'Arab Spring' 2011. The use of controlled warfare tactics in countering the enemy, aiding the proxies, and public opinion formation (misinformation); working aside from the governmental presentation has accelerated the international concern, as the legal uncertainties in the international law, leaves room for use of hybrid means. Consolidation of Bashar Al Assad regime, aided by Russian intervention, on the pretext of 'fighting terrorism' in 2015, also highlighted Russian resurgence in the Middle East. This research would primarily study the prospects of understanding hybrid warfare as the significant emerging generation of warfare in contemporary times, understanding the nature of Russian hybrid warfare, its implication in the Middle East and in particular on Syria. The Paper will in particular look at Maskirovka - the military strategy employed by Russia, which explains its hybrid tactics and aims particularly in Syria.

Understanding the Obama Administration’s Syria Policy

President Obama’s Syria policy and his decision not to intervene in Syria had long been criticized by the US political elites, scholars, and pundits. Most of the explanations of the US policy towards the Syrian civil war are based on realpolitik arguments. Realpolitik explanations of foreign policy analysis tend to overlook other key factors that play a vital role in foreign policy decision making processes. Therefore, these studies fail to explain Obama’s Syria policy adequately. This article aims to provide a more comprehensive explanation of Obama’s Syria policy. I argue that Obama’s Syria policy can be better explained by two other approaches: mass politics and psychological and cognitive approaches. After a thorough examination of relevant literature and President Obama’s interviews and speeches, I argue that President Obama chose not to intervene in Syria because US public opinion was extremely reluctant to send US troops to Syria, and there was not an effective interest group that could impact the public opinion and the administration’s policies. Further, President Obama’s beliefs and attitudes also played a vital role in determining his Syria policy. First, Obama’s fundamental beliefs shaped how he approached the Syrian crisis. Then, his interaction with several actors and crises affected his attitude towards Syria and how the situation should be handled. His speeches and interviews show that Libyan intervention affected his perceptions. Therefore, he did not implement the same option in the Syrian case. Likewise, Obama’s categorization of the Middle East leaders and threats affected his Syria policy. Last but not least, diplomatic encounters and his personal experience also played a role in determining his Syria policy.

Turkey’s Policy in Syria: Strategic Objectives, Tactics, and Constraints

Turkey’s Policy in Syria: Strategic Objectives, Tactics, and Constraints

Russian Church Policy in Syria in the 19th Century: Main Tendencies and Dynamics of Its Development

The article is focused on the main tendencies of Russian policy in the Patriarchate of Antioch during the 19th century. Following the traditional support of Orthodoxy, in the situation of concurrence of the Great Powers in the Middle East Russia had to make a revision of the old methods of policy. The journey of Archimandrite Porfirii Uspenskii in 1843 and the foundation of the Russian Ecclesiastical Mission in Jerusalem in 1847 were aimed at strengthening of Russian positions in the region. The conflicts between the nations in the end of the 1850s and he struggle of the Arabs for church and national independence forced he Russian diplomacy to support them against the Greeks. The struggle ended in the election of an Arab Patriarch at the Antiochian see. The activities of the Imperial Orthodox Palestine Society for foundation of schools for the Orthodox Arabs as well as financing of the schools of the Patriarchate created a strong base for national education. The peak of Russian influence in Syria is in the beginning of the 20s century: at that time the sums for material support increase enormously. As a whole it was in Syria during the 19th century that Russian policy in the Christian East was most efficient.

Turkey's Syria Policy Regarding Husni Zaim Coup

II. Dünya Savaşı’ndan günümüze kadar askeri darbeler Orta Doğu’da değişmeyen siyasal olgulardan biridir. Suriye, tartışmalı sınırları ve çoklu toplum yapısı dolayısıyla darbelerin en yoğun yaşandığı ülkelerden biri olmuştur. 30 Mart 1949 tarihinde Suriye’de gerçekleşen Albay Zaim Darbesi, Orta Doğu’da II. Dünya Savaşı sonrasındaki askeri darbe dalgasının başlangıcını ve prototipini oluşturur. Bu darbeyle ilk defa ABD, Orta Doğu’da ki ulusal çıkarlarını, askeri diktatörlüklerle rahatlıkla koruyabildiğini görerek, bölgede birçok askeri darbenin aktörü oldu ve çeşitli ülkelerde diktatörleri iktidara getirdi. Dört buçuk ay gibi kısa süreli bir tarih kesitini işaret eden Zaim yönetimi, günümüze kadar Hatay’ın Türkiye toprağı olduğunu kabul ederek Türkiye’nin siyasal egemenliğini ve toprak bütünlüğünü tanıyan tek Suriye iktidarıdır. Zaim’in bu dostane politikasına karşılık Türkiye de iyimser bir yaklaşımla darbe yönetimini erken tanıyan ülkelerden biri olmuştur. Ancak Türkiye’nin Albay Zaim iktidarı döneminde Suriye politikası makro planda SSCB tehdidi, Arap devletleri arasında güç mücadeleleri ve Suriye’nin iç politik konjonktürünün zorlamalarının da etkisiyle kontrollü olmuştur.

Contemporary Russian Messianism under Putin and Russian Foreign Policy in Ukraine and Syria

When Vladimir Putin returned to the Russian Presidency in 2012 his mistrust of the West, paranoia towards democracy and fear of the burgeoning liberal-democratic middle class reached new heights. In response, Putin shaped an instrumental and malleable form of contemporary Russian messianism, built upon the four intertwining pillars of messianism, nationalism, Eurasianism and politicized memory. This article seeks to illustrate how the proposed components of contemporary Russian messianism under Putin both interconnect and broaden the reach of Putin's pseudo-ideological turn. It will then examine how this is used in the actions and portrayal of the 2014 Ukraine Crisis and 2015 Syria intervention in order to domestically legitimate Putin as the Russian leader and propose its messy and contradictory nature allow a constantly evolving narrative that adapts to new circumstances and audiences.

Конфликт в Сирии и внешняя политика России

Конфликт в Сирии и внешняя политика России

20. Yüzyılın İlk Yarısında Lübnan’da Arap Milliyetçiliğinin Edebiyatçı ve Çevirmen Önderlerinden Birisi: Flîks Fâris

Arap çeviri tarihinde bireysel bir bilimsel etkinlik olarak görülen çevirinin devlet politikası kabul edildiği, devlet tarafından teşvik edilerek desteklendiği, bunun da ötesinde çevirmenlerin siyasi otorite tarafından yönlendirildiği iki dönem vardır. Bunlardan birincisi Abbasi halifelerinden 2. Mansur döneminde başlatılan ve Me’mun döneminde zirveye ulaşarak kurumsallaşan dönemdir. Bu dönemin çevirileri genellikle tıp, kozmografya, mühendislik ve mantık ile ilgili olup, daha çok Farsça ve Sanskritçe gibi ara dil üzerinden Arapçaya yapılmıştır. Bu nedenle dönemi felsefi-tıbbî çeviri dönemi olarak isimlendirebiliriz. İkinci dönem 1773 yılında Katolik Hıristiyan grupların Fransa’dan Lübnan’a göç ederek, burada birçok okul kurmalarıyla başlayıp Kavalalı Mehmet Ali Paşa’nın Mısır valiliği döneminde (1805-1848) zirveye ulaşan dönemdir. Avrupa üniversitelerinin ders kitaplarının ve mühendislik bilimlerinin Arapçaya çevirisine ağırlık verildiği bu dönemi de bilimsel çeviri dönemi olarak isimlendirebiliriz. 1850’lı yıllarda Batıda dil ve çeviri eğiti alarak ülkelerine dönen burslu öğrencilerin Avrupa ülkelerinde tanıdıkları öykü, hikâye, roman, masal, tiyatro, anı, seyahatname gibi edebi türleri Arapçaya çevirmeleriyle başlayan dönemi de edebi çeviri dönemi olarak isimlendirebiliriz. Bu dönemde çevrilen eserler öncelikli olarak özgürlük, eşitlik ve kardeşlik temalarını ele alarak Fransız ihtilalini Arap ülkelerine yaymayı hedeflediğinden bu dönemi ideolojik çeviri dönemi olarak adlandırmak da mümkündür. 1882 Lübnan doğumlu Flîks Fâris edebi/ideolojik çeviri döneminin önde gelen temsilcilerinden birisidir. Şair, hatip, yazar, çevirmen ve hukukçu birisidir. Arap olmasına karşın İttihat ve Terakki Cemiyetinin Lübnan sorumlusudur. Osmanlı devletinin Lübnan’ı idaresine şiddetle karşı çıkmış, bu uğurda başta gazete ve dergiler olmak üzere edebiyat mahfilleri, gizli cemiyetler ve masonik yapılanmalarla omuz omuza mücadele ederek, Suriye ve Lübnan’da Osmanlı karşıtı bir Arap milliyetçilik akımının başlaması ve Arap ulus devlet anlayışın gelişmesi için elinden gelini yapmıştır.

Syria Policy of Russia as a Permanent Member of the United Nations Security Council

Syria Policy of Russia as a Permanent Member of the United Nations Security Council

Realpolitik and Jihad: The Iranian Use of Shiite Militias in Syria

AbstractThe Shi‘a militias that have been involved in the war in Syria since 2011 were dispatched by Iran from neighboring countries, and they have exploited their position as aid‐givers by implementing a long‐term scheme of Iran regarding Syria. This article seeks to define the purpose and modus operandi of the involvement of these militias in Syria, as a case study of Iranian policy throughout the region. The essence and purposes of this regional policy has been analyzed using realistic and soft power approaches, alongside political thought from the Sh'ia Islam and the fundamentals of the Islamic Revolution; the reflection of this policy in Syria is identified by tracing reports and publications regarding the complicity of the Shi‘a militias in the war. The article claims that war‐racked Syria is a sort of test case for Iran protecting itself by attempting to spread its hegemony — and thus deterrence — across the region, a plan that is combined with and carried out through an ideological Jihadist promotion of an Islamic order. Accordingly, the Shi‘a militias are striving to ensure a lasting foothold for Iran in the areas in Syria that are essential to Iranian regional aspirations, by imposing Iranian political, military, and religious influences among these territories and populations.

AGENT-STRUCTURE RELATIONS IN FOREIGN POLICY: AN ANALYSIS OF TURKEY-SYRIA RELATIONS DURING THE ARAB SPRING ON A DYNAMIC FOREIGN POLICY ANALYSIS MODEL

The main focal point in this study analyzing the change of Turkey-Syria relations during the Arab Spring is the agent-structure problem. The change that took place in Turkey-Syria relations is analyzed in the light of “the beginning of the demonstrations in Daraa and the Siege of Hama”, “shooting down of Turkish RF-4E reconnaissance aircraft”, “violation of rules of engagement”, and “Operation Euphrates Shield” in the framework of Dynamic Foreign Policy Analysis Model (DFPAM) developed by Carlsnaes based on Margaret Archer’s Morphogenetic Approach. It is concluded that Turkey’s Syria policy changed in the process as a result of the interaction with the “structure” and that these foreign policy actions led to a new structuring at the same time.

Regime Change, Deferred: Regarding United States’ Foreign Policy in Syria

Regime Change, Deferred: Regarding United States’ Foreign Policy in Syria

A Cyber Storm on the Horizon?

In November 2017, a major local authority in the south west came under sustained cyber-attack. Senior lecturer John Curry, of Bath Spa University, explains the cause of the attack was nothing to do with the local authority – it was linked to British foreign policy in Syria

Turkey’s Syria Policy: Constant Objectives Shifting Priorities

Turkey’s foreign policy approach started to transform from a more liberal and humanitarian foreign policy to a more realistic and pragmatic one in 2016, which was manifested in the Syrian civil war. In this period Turkey started to prioritize the use of hard power in order to prevent the threats resulting from the civil war. This paper asserts that while Turkey’s objectives in the Syrian crisis have remained stable, its priorities have changed especially in recent years. So, while from 2011-2016 humanitarian norms dominated Turkey’s Syria policy, after 2016, these norms became secondary priorities, and were replaced by hard power-based military assertiveness. To support this hypothesis, six main objectives of Turkey’s foreign policy are taken into consideration: Managing the humanitarian crisis, materializing the fall of the Assad regime, aiding the opposition forces, waging a proxy war with Iran, eliminating the threat of Daesh, and preventing the PYD/YPG from creating an area of dominance.

Розвиток курдської національної свідомості в умовах збройного конфлікту в Сирії.

The article analyzes the influence of the armed conflict in Syria on the development of the Kurdish national consciousness. A particular attention is paid to determining the preconditions and challenges faced by the Syrian Kurds in the process of designing their own autonomy. Thus, the author stressed that the beginning of the armed conflict in Syria, on the one hand, destabilized the situation in the region, but on the other hand, opened the window of opportunity for the Syrian Kurds who suffered institutionalized discrimination before 2011. An event study in Syria in the context of an armed conflict indicates the transformation of the Syrian Kurds into one of the leading players in the fight against any force that could threaten the autonomy of their country in the north, the Democratic Federation of Northern Syria, built on the principles of a social contract. The content analysis of the temporary (Charter of Social Contract) and the permanent Constitution ("Social Contract of the Democratic Federation of Northern Syria") of Rojava gives grounds to conclude that the autonomy of the Syrian Kurds is based on the innovative legal system, from the point of view of international law and the entire international the community. However, the internal split, both within the Kurdish national movement in Syria and in the entire kurdish dialogue, assistance given to the Syrian Kurds from both the United States and Russia with the fundamental differences between these states regarding the Syrian conflict, the terrorist threat from the IS and the total dependence of Kurdish combatants on external supplies of weapons made the author to conclude that it will be very difficult for the Kurds of Syria to continue their existence as an independent fragment that splits off the fragmented republic. That is why the key task for the Syrian Kurds is to preserve a truly working autonomy within Syria, which is still undergoing the process of political transformation.However, it is obvious that in case of preservation of territorial integrity, Syria after the end of the civil war will be radically different from Syria before 2011. It is the enhanced role of the Kurdish factor that will determine the new policy of post-crisis Syria, in which the Kurds are given one of the main roles.

İran’ın Ortadoğu Güvenlik İkilemi: Yeni Gerçekçilik Kuramına Göre İran’ın Suriye Dış Politikası

Iran’s foreign policy in the Middle East has often been analyzed through the lenses of religion which seen as an inseparable component of state identity of Iran. Iran’s foreign policy actions in the region have often been interpreted as suspicious as well as posing ideological and sectarian threat by the other Middle East countries that have Shia minorities/majorities in their territories. At that point, Syria war constitutes a relevant example to analyze the determinants of Iran’s foreign policy in the Middle East. This study attempts at applying neorealism to analyze the motivations of Iran’s foreign policy in the Middle East. It argues that Iran’s foreign policy in Syria needs to be seen beyond the discourse of proxy war; rather it aims at securing Iran’s regional power bases as well as projecting Iranian power to Syria and across the region.

Turkey’s interests in the Syrian war: from neo-Ottomanism to counterinsurgency

ABSTRACTWith the outbreak of the Syrian war in 2011, Turkey quickly embroiled itself in the conflict by supporting, arming and funding armed militants against the Syrian government. The paper contends that the Turkish leadership found the Syrian war was an opportunity to engage in territorial expansionism. What was not envisaged however was the rise of the Kurdish YPG, the Syrian branch of the Turkey-based Kurdistan Workers’ Party, who are recognized by Ankara as a terrorist organization. The rise of the YPG directly threatens the sovereignty of Syria and portends to establish a Kurdish state right on the border of Turkey’s Kurdish-majority eastern Anatolia where autonomous and secessionists movements are strong. This has effectively meant that Turkey’s Syria policy went from one of neo-Ottomanism to counterinsurgency as they attempt to defeat the Kurdish secessionist movement in Syria.

The Syrian Civil War, sectarianism and political change at the Turkish-Syrian border

The Syrian Civil War has displaced millions of Syrian citizens since March 2011 and has drastically changed the lives of those in the Turkish–Syrian borderlands. Antakya (Hatay), which was annexed by the Republic of Turkey from Syria under the French Mandate in 1939, is a border province that hosts tens of thousands of Syrian refugees today. Although the province has long been renowned for its ethnic and religious diversity, the influx of Syrian refugees and Turkey's Syria policy have created new ethno-religious conflicts and have shifted the dynamics of everyday life in Antakya. Drawing on micro-historical approaches towards boundary-making and state formation, this ethnographic study focuses first on how the Syrian Civil War has transformed urban everyday life in this border city and has redefined ethno-religious boundaries and locals’ relationships to the state since 2011. Second, this article investigates the ways in which ‘sectarianism’ is implicated in the Turkish regime's approach to the Syrian Civil War and how sectarian discourses have shifted the political landscape in Antakya. This project suggests that in international conflicts between neighbouring states, the spatial, political and social divisions in border cities will increase as ethnic and religious identities become more politicised.

The future of US Syria policy

Despite campaign rhetoric suggesting bold changes to US Syria policy, President Trump has few realistic military or political options for major departures from Obama's policy. US policy will probably change only at the margins.