Hybrid Warfare: A Reorientation of Russian foreign policy in Syria

Saira Nawaz Abbasi, Sadia Nasir Saira Nawaz Abbasi, Sadia Nasir

doi:10.52337/pjia.v4i2.177

Abstract

The primary focus of this research is to understand Russian hybrid warfare as a tool of Russian Foreign policy in contemporary Syria. Although hybrid warfare is not new, however Russian focus on hybrid warfare appears to signal a reorientation of its foreign policy, most visibly in Syria. Russian resurgence has caused a stir in the international community, particularly after the 'colour revolution' in Georgia in 2008. The threat seems to have grown with the Crimean Annexation of 2014 and the alleged Russian role in the U.S presidential election 2016. Russian hybrid warfare became noticeable in the Middle East, specifically in Syria after the infamous 'Arab Spring' 2011. The use of controlled warfare tactics in countering the enemy, aiding the proxies, and public opinion formation (misinformation); working aside from the governmental presentation has accelerated the international concern, as the legal uncertainties in the international law, leaves room for use of hybrid means. Consolidation of Bashar Al Assad regime, aided by Russian intervention, on the pretext of 'fighting terrorism' in 2015, also highlighted Russian resurgence in the Middle East. This research would primarily study the prospects of understanding hybrid warfare as the significant emerging generation of warfare in contemporary times, understanding the nature of Russian hybrid warfare, its implication in the Middle East and in particular on Syria. The Paper will in particular look at Maskirovka - the military strategy employed by Russia, which explains its hybrid tactics and aims particularly in Syria.

Highlights

The concept of warfare evolved in modern times, despite having military capacity, is to avoid direct military confrontation
The primary focus has been to elaborate and predict the nature of Russian hybrid warfare, understanding its execution in a basic manner starting from the Russian security policy of Maskirvoka to modern-day up-gradation to Gerasimov Doctrine
The Russian hybrid warfare is the depiction of such deceptive measures ranging from Crimean annexation to the Syrian civil war

Summary

Introduction

The concept of warfare evolved in modern times, despite having military capacity, is to avoid direct military confrontation. Instead of maximising the tangible military elements, Russia kept the modern techno-advancements in the account It devised an all-out warfare technique based on unarmed aircraft system, electronic warfare jamming equipment, spying, cyber hacking, espionage, psy-ops and propaganda. Hybrid warfare has gained significant attention from scholars It remains an ill-defined concept but broadly refers to the “use of unconventional methods as part of a multi-domain warfighting approach. Russia intervened with air operations from the Kheimeim base to attack the rebels, deploying PMC (Private Military Companies) in Syria, even though these PMCs were banned in Russia, while ostensibly declaring the main agenda to be counter-terrorism in Syria by eliminating ISIS This rhetoric is contradictory to the ongoing Syrian crisis, implying the strengthening of Bashar Al Asad's regime as the primary purpose of Russian intervention. The continued competition between Saudi Arabia and Iran provides Russian with avenues to sell its ammunition in the region and creating a route for its economy (Canadian Forces College, 2017)

Theoretical Understanding of Russian Hybrid Warfare

Nature Of Russian Hybrid Warfare Post Arab Spring

Gerasimov Doctrine and Hybrid Warfare In The Middle East

Russian Reaction to Arab Spring

Russian Hybrid Warfare in Syria

Conclusion