Pessimistic Outlook Research Articles

A behavioral gap in survival beliefs

AbstractLife span uncertainty (longevity risk) impacts several economic decisions. Individuals can form and revise their survival beliefs making use of behavioral heuristics. We propose a model of sentiment, in which individuals are assumed to switch between optimistic and pessimistic expectations of their health. When optimism is persistent in the face of health shocks, or when individuals are more likely to change their sentiment from pessimistic to optimistic than otherwise, our model predicts survival underestimation at young ages and overestimation at old ages. An empirical analysis based on the longitudinal data from Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe validates our model.

A study of financial market resilience in China — From a hot money shock perspective

Given the huge impact of hot money on the China's financial market, it is crucial to evaluate and improve the ability to withstand such shocks. This paper measures the resilience of China's financial markets to hot money shocks, and examines the connectedness mechanism among submarket resilience. Our findings indicate that, first, China's overall financial market resilience is characterized by cyclical changes. Among all markets, the bond market exhibits the strongest ability to absorb shocks, while the real estate market shows the weakest. Second, there is a considerable association between financial submarket resilience, which is further strengthened by panic and pessimistic expectations in tail scenarios. The stock market holds the central position in the resilience connectedness structure and shows the greatest impact on other markets. This study suggests that focusing on real estate and stock market conditions is the key to accelerating financial market recovery from hot money shocks.

Assessing prognosis in depression: comparing perspectives of AI models, mental health professionals and the general public

BackgroundArtificial intelligence (AI) has rapidly permeated various sectors, including healthcare, highlighting its potential to facilitate mental health assessments. This study explores the underexplored domain of AI’s role in evaluating prognosis...

유럽사법재판소의 입법과정심사

Along with the development of legisprudence that explores how to ensure the ‘quality’ of legislation, ‘ex-ante’ control devices to improve the ‘rationality’ of the legislative process and legislative decision-making have been discussed. A representative example of such a proactive control device is ‘legislative impact assessment,’ adopted in the European Union legislative process and becoming increasingly common worldwide. As the legislative process is documented in the form of legislative impact assessments, judicial review bodies are also forced to consider the rationality of the legislative process in ‘ex-post’ constitutionality or legality judgments. Today, the European Court of Justice is the representative judicial review body that examines the legislative process in judicial review. Regarding the legislative process review emerging at the European Court of Justice, there is a conflict between the optimistic outlook that it will improve the quality of legislation by enhancing the rationality of the legislative process and the pessimistic outlook that it will damage legislative discretion by causing excessive judicialization. This article analyzes the decisions of the European Court of Justice that include argumentations that can be classified as legislative process review, identifies its methods and scope of application, and considers the relationship with the proportionality principle. Then, it provides implications for our constitutional court jurisprudence and the limitations of such judicial review.

Affect-congruent attention modulates generalized reward expectations.

Positive and negative affective states are respectively associated with optimistic and pessimistic expectations regarding future reward. One mechanism that might underlie these affect-related expectation biases is attention to positive- versus negative-valence features (e.g., attending to the positive reviews of a restaurant versus its expensive price). Here we tested the effects of experimentally induced positive and negative affect on feature-based attention in 120 participants completing a compound-generalization task with eye-tracking. We found that participants' reward expectations for novel compound stimuli were modulated in an affect-congruent way: positive affect induction increased reward expectations for compounds, whereas negative affect induction decreased reward expectations. Computational modelling and eye-tracking analyses each revealed that these effects were driven by affect-congruent changes in participants' allocation of attention to high- versus low-value features of compounds. These results provide mechanistic insight into a process by which affect produces biases in generalized reward expectations.

Large discrepancy between future demand and supply of agricultural water in northwestern Iran; evidence from WEAP-MODFLOW-machine learning under the CMIP6 scenario

The agricultural sector in northwestern Iran uses about 95 % of the region’s available water resources and nearly 98 % of are aquifer water. Despite the regiońs previous richness in water resources, the supply is now quickly decreasing. The Ghorveh-Dehgolan sub-basin in northwestern Iran consists of three dams as well as three aquifers that supply water resources for agriculture, domestic uses, and industry. We used the Water Evaluation and Planning System (WEAP) and MODFLOW hydrologic model together with machine learning to investigate the status of future water resources in this region under the influence of climate change. At first, the current status of water resources in the area was simulated using WEAP and MODFLOW for the period 2008–2021. Then, the impact of climate change on surface water and groundwater resources in 2026–2045 was evaluated under the SSP2.6 and SSP8.5 emission scenarios. Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) were used to generate future runoff and least-squares support vector regression (LSSVR) was used to predict the groundwater levels for the period 2026–2045. The results showed that under the SSP8.5 scenario, precipitation may decrease by about 15 % in the future compared to the reference period (1987–2005). The reservoir inflow is thus likely to decrease by 25 %, which may decrease the groundwater level by 1.2 m per year in the coming period. The groundwater level in Ghorveh and Dehgolan aquifers dropped by nearly 20 m during the period 2008–2021 and still about 5 to 25 million cubic meters (MCM) of water demand for the agricultural sector were not supplied. If the current trend continues, up to 65 MCM of water demand in the region will not be met in the near future. These results call for immediate action by government and water managers. We outline different alternatives to improve the pessimistic future outlook that can be used to amend the water management in the basin.

Disability and employability in the audio-visual sector: the (dis)connection between corporate social sustainability goals and the employment experiences of people with disabilities

People with disabilities (PwD) have made significant progress in having their rights acknowledged, yet the ongoing presence of stigmas continues to hinder their full inclusion. The approach of the 2030 Agenda, as well as legislative developments focussed on improving the employment status of this group, have encouraged companies to express growing concern for this issue in their sustainability reports. However, such efforts have not resulted in a substantial increase in employment of PwD. The aim of this research is to gain knowledge regarding the dis(connection) between the corporate discourse of large Spanish audio-visual companies and the reality experienced by PwD employed in this sector. Using Atlas.ti software, a thematic relational analysis of two discourses has been carried out: firstly, the corporate narrative, which has been published in the sustainability reports of the three most prominent audio-visual groups in Spain; and secondly, the discourse regarding the experiences of three focus groups consisting of PwD employed in the audio-visual job market. The findings reveal that while these companies disseminate a positive view of diversity and inclusion, workers with disabilities continue to have a pessimistic outlook towards the situation. Moreover, companies are acutely interested in issues such as the commitment to inclusion and social equality, which they promote as part of their image. Furthermore, these companies include a variety of socially diverse factors, such as race, gender, age and/or general ability. On the contrary, the experiences related by the focus groups convey special concern for the role of different agents involved in the employment of PwD, such as companies, governments and associations, as well as apprehension regarding the policies and resources needed to achieve labour inclusion. Such discrepancies highlight the lack of cohesion between corporate policies of the audio-visual sector and the professional reality experienced by PwD.

전쟁의 위기와 유럽통합

The European Union (EU), which guaranteed peace and prosperity in Europe after the two World Wars, has faced a series of consecutive crises and challenges since the late 2000s. Some analysts have even diagnosed a pessimistic outlook for the future of Europe due to this continuous string of crises. Such a reality has prompted inquiries into the continuity of the EU itself. Is the EU genuinely sustainable? If it endures, can it evolve into a more robust political integration body? Enduring amidst the prevailing ascendancy of nationalism and external pressures, can the EU steadfastly preserve unity within diversity? This study, which discusses the relationship between the crisis of war and the development of European integration, primarily aims to find insights into the current future of the EU and the correlation between crises and the development of European integration.
 Throughout the past 70 years of European integration, Europe has faced numerous crises. In 1954, with the failure of the European Defense Community (EDC) treaty, journalists questioned the uncertain future of integration. Jean Monnet, in response, asserted that Europe would learn about integration through crises. Moreover, the development of the European Coal and Steel Community (ECSC), the first institution of European integration, is closely linked to the crises in Europe during the 20th century, including the World Wars and the Cold War. Therefore, Monnet explained that Europe was born out of crises. This study will explore the origins of the ECSC and the significance of supranational European integration methods, examining how crises of war can strongly reinforce the necessity for integration.

Let it go: How exaggerating the reputational costs of revealing negative information encourages secrecy in relationships.

Keeping negative interpersonal secrets can diminish well-being, yet people nevertheless keep negative information secret from friends, family, and loved ones to protect their own reputations. Twelve experiments suggest these reputational concerns are systematically miscalibrated, creating a misplaced barrier to honesty in relationships. In hypothetical scenarios (Experiments 1, S1, and S2), laboratory experiments (Experiments 2 and 6), and field settings (Experiments 3 and 4), those who imagined revealing, or who actually revealed, negative information they were keeping secret expected to be judged significantly more harshly than recipients expected to judge, or actually judged, them. We theorized that revealers' pessimistic expectations stem not only from the cognitive accessibility of negative information (Experiment S3) but also from a perspective gap such that the negative outcomes of disclosing this information, compared to positive outcomes, are more accessible for prospective revealers than for recipients. Consistent with this mechanism, revealers' expectations were better calibrated when directed to focus on positive thoughts or when they considered revealing positive information (Experiments 5, 6, and S4). Revealers' miscalibrated expectations matter because they can guide decisions about whether to reveal information or conceal it as a secret (Experiment S5). As predicted, calibrating revealers' expectations increased their willingness to reveal negative information to others (Experiment 7), suggesting that miscalibrated fears of others' judgment create a misplaced barrier to honesty in relationships. Overestimating the reputational costs of disclosing negative information might leave people carrying a heavier burden of secrecy than would be optimal for their own well-being. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

ЭТНОЛИНГВИСТИЧЕСКИЕ АСПЕКТЫ ФОРМИРОВАНИЯ ТРУДОВОЙ ЭТИКИ И ПРОЦЕССА НАЦИОНАЛЬНОГО СТРОИТЕЛЬСТВА

В статье анализируются этнолингвистические аспекты созидания трудовой этики и предпосылки для национального строительства.Ожидания социально-экономического характера (динамика экономического роста, и, как следствие, ожидания улучшения материального положения, повышения социального и имущественного положения), и, напротив, пессимистические ожидания есть переменные, а этнические и лингвистические особенности общества являются устойчивыми и постоянными признаками. Описывается на примере немецкого языка как изменение Мартином Лютером семантического коннотативного компонента в слове Beruf привело к созданию новой трудовой этики, известной как трудовая этика протестантизма. Кроме этого, был поставлен вопрос о ненадобности церковной иерархии в католичестве и освящено установление горизонтальных отношений в общинах протестантов вместо вертикальных, иерархичных отношений в католической церкви. Этим самым был открыта возможность национального строительства в странах Западной Европы. Проведено сравнение слов немецкого и казахского языков о труде и работе. Опыт Западной Европы демонстрирует, что необходима семантическая депривация, по существу, семантическая революция, в мировоззрении для формирования трудовой этики и прогресса в процессе национального строительства в Казахстане.

Melanie: A Novel Exploring How Trauma Affects a Teenager’s Mental Health

When a teenager accidentally commits a killing in self-defense, such an experience will have a tremendous effect on her psychological condition. From the accidental killing, she suffers from a post-traumatic stress disorder, which negatively affects her mental health. She will then use a variety of defense mechanisms to cope. This work applies the theory of traumatic stress, post-traumatic stress disorder, and defense mechanisms. This creative thesis is written in the form of a novel to showcase the effects of a self-defense killing on a person’s psyche, and how she uses defense mechanisms to deal with the effects. The novel shows how Melanie, the main character, suffers from the symptoms of post-traumatic stress disorder, such as strong emotions, overreaction, disturbed sleeping patterns, withdrawal from family and friends, depression, pessimistic outlook on life, and feelings of hopelessness, and she utilizes avoidance, acting out, repression and denial as defense mechanisms to deal with the stress.

What is Old Age? Elderly’s Perception and Understanding: A Qualitative Study

The current study focuses on the lives of the elderly people and tries to understand how they conceptualise old age and how they believe their lives to be as they get older. The study was conducted among two groups of old people—one living in their homes and the other in religious ashrams—to accomplish this goal. Participants were surveyed individually in 16 separate interviews for the data, which were then analysed using thematic analysis to provide themes. The findings indicate that, for the most part, both participant groups viewed old age as a time of physical and mental deterioration as well as changes in appearance brought on by ageing. Second, both participant groups saw this age as a time of eroding social ties. Participants also varied in how they felt about getting older. The elderly who resided in ashrams were positive and demonstrated their ability to have spiritual experiences; in contrast, the elderly who lived alone had a pessimistic outlook and believed that old age was the result of previous bad acts.

LNG 추진선박 도입 전망에 관한 연구

Purpose - This research aims to forecast the scale of LNG-fueled ships from 2020 to 2035 based on an economic performance analysis.
 Design/Methodology/Approach - This research compares the present value of costs for three alternatives (using low-sulfur fuel, installing scrubbers, and LNG-fueled ships). According to the two scenarios set in this study, the scale of LNG- fueled ship introduction was predicted from 2020 to 2035.
 Findings - The result showed that the proportion of LNG-fueled ships (based on DWT) will be 34.9% in 2035 by Scenario 1, and 20.1% in 2035 by Scenario 2. A one-year delay in global LNG bunkering infrastructure construction would reduce the introduction of LNG-fueled ships by about 2% in 2035. As a result of comparing the current situation with the results of this study, it was found to show a pattern similar to Scenario 2 assuming a pessimistic outlook.
 Research Implications - In order to activate the introduction of LNG-fueled ships, it is necessary to expand the LNG bunkering infrastructure, which is considered the most important factor hindering the introduction of LNG-fueled ships. Also, it would be a meaningful task to try forecasting considering the volume of goods transported. In addition, it would be interesting to evaluate the performance on climate change and the environment following the introduction of LNG-fueled ships.

Happiness and its relationship to expectations of change and sustainable behavior in a post-COVID-19 world

PurposeThis study aims to analyze the relationship between expectations of change after a crisis, such as that generated by COVID-19, people's levels of happiness and the propensity for pro-sustainable behavior.Design/methodology/approachSurveys were conducted using 1,130 observations. The aim was to measure expectations of change during the pandemic. Furthermore, the relationship between these expectations, happiness levels, and attitudes towards sustainability was analyzed for various elements of daily life. Statistical techniques such as principal component analysis (PCA), cluster analysis, variance analysis and correlation analysis were utilized to explore the underlying patterns and relationships.FindingsOptimistic expectations for post-pandemic change are associated with a greater likelihood of engaging in environmentally beneficial behaviors, leading to higher levels of life satisfaction. This correlation is particularly significant when individuals envision broader transformations in the collective behavior of humanity. These findings suggest a strong link between beliefs in positive societal transformations and both pro-environmental actions and personal well-being.Research limitations/implicationsThe unique circumstances of the pandemic, characterized by heightened media consumption, likely influenced the expectations of individuals, particularly fostering pessimistic outlooks in critical situations. Clear and solid variables were utilized despite not employing validated scales to measure expectations. However, it has been proven that there is a clear link between change expectations, happiness, and the propensity for a more sustainable daily life.Practical implicationsThis study identifies guidelines that strengthen brands' communication strategies based on individuals' sustainability profiles and visions of the future.Social implicationsThere is a need to target skeptical, change-resistant segments of the population with a more convincing and solid discourse to promote sustainable consumption and behavior.Originality/valueThis is the first study to simultaneously address the relationship between individuals' expectations of change following traumatic events such as the pandemic, their engagement in sustainable behavior, and their increased levels of happiness.

Cefic and VCI share pessimistic outlook

Cefic and VCI share pessimistic outlook

PEOPLE’S CONTROL AS A METHOD OF COUNTERING CORRUPTION

The paper aims to illustrate that corruption is not solely a negative occurrence that damages public interests; it is also a force that cultivates a pessimistic outlook among citizens towards state structures. The author evaluates the extent of influence and scrutinizes the role of legal nihilism on the paradigm of civil society development and the establishment of citizens’ trust in the authorities over an extended period. By examining examples, the potential of employing the principles of people’s control as a tool for citizen-authority interaction is assessed. Options are presented to enhance the quality of the system’s functioning.

Can a Pessimistic Outlook Moderate the Victimization-Delinquency Relationship?

This study was designed to shed light on the relationship between victimization and offending, a pattern commonly known as the victim-offender overlap, by exploring whether victimization and pessimism toward the future interact in association with self-reported delinquency. This study was performed on 1,300 (444 males, 645 females, and 211 sex not identified) members of the 2018 High School Senior Monitoring the Future cross-sectional study. Multiple regression analysis was conducted using a maximum likelihood estimator and bias-corrected bootstrapped 95% confidence intervals. The analysis revealed that victimization and the victimization × pessimism interaction correlated significantly with delinquency, after controlling for a series of demographic, family, and peer factors. These results indicate that pessimism toward the future may exacerbate the already strong relationship known to exist between victimization and delinquency.

Visualising the Optimistic, Realistic, and Pessimistic Financial Distress Outlooks for Airport Operations in Malaysia

This paper aims to visualise three financial distress outlooks using computer simulations. The financial distress exposure for airport operations in Malaysia between 1991 and 2021 is given by Altman Z”-score and modelled by the multivariate generalized linear model (MGLM). Seven determinants contributing to the financial distress from literature are examined. The determinant series are fitted individually by using linear model with time series components and autoregressive integrated moving average models to forecast values for the next 10 financial years. Future short- to long-term memory effects following COVID-19 are apparent in time series plots. In the simulations, the MGLM procedure utilised Gaussian, gamma, and Cauchy probability distributions associated with expectations and challenges of doing business as well as uncertainties in the economy. The underlying trends of realistic, optimistic, and pessimistic financial distress outlooks insinuate that the increasing risk of financial distress of airport operations in Malaysia is expected to continue for the next decade.

Policy uncertainty and inventory behavior: Evidence from the US manufacturing sector

AbstractThis study investigates the impact of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on asymmetric inventory investment (i.e., inventory stickiness or sticky inventory management). Using a sample of 74,912 US firm‐year observations over the 1984–2021 period, we observe a significantly negative relationship between EPU and asymmetric inventory investment. Our cross‐sectional analyses reveal that managers' pessimistic expectations regarding future demand and higher cost of funding and maintaining capacity are the channels through which EPU affects asymmetric inventory behavior. Moreover, this negative impact is more pronounced for firms that face longer‐duration uncertainty, rely heavily on government purchases, and have higher firm‐specific political risk. Lastly, we find that reducing inventory stickiness leads to improved firm performance during periods of increasing policy uncertainty.

Asian Drama Revisited: Myrdal’s Insight in the Development of Southeast Asia

Abstract Gunner Myrdal’s Asian Drama was the first serious and somewhat pessimistic study on the postcolonial development prospects of newly independent Asian countries. Since the world is in the grips of covid-19 pandemic and facing disrupted global supply chains, it is worth reflecting on the Asian Drama and rediscovering some of its insights. The rapid growth of Southeast Asian countries at the beginning of the twenty-first century may have proved Myrdal’s pessimistic outlook wrong, but his concern over the balance between state and market is still valid as it informs countries in the region that they should be more cautious in pursuing their current industrial policies. This is more so when Keynesian foresight is married to Myrdal’s forecast of development and economic growth, the precariousness of Southeast Asia’s development prospects post-pandemic is more pronounced.