Pessimistic Outlook Research Articles

The cognitive source of philosophical intuitions: Troubles for the etiological project

The advent of experimental philosophy has generated a renewed interest in the nature of philosophical intuitions. This has led many to assume that understanding the psychological processes that generate philosophical intuitions will provide a much needed source of answers for various questions about their nature. It is widely assumed that if we are to gain a good sense of the reliability of philosophical intuitions (and the degree to which experimental philosophy challenges their role in philosophy) it is critical to learn more about the sort of cognitive faculties and processes that produce them. However, here, I'm going to present a more pessimistic outlook about what we should expect from such a project in the case of philosophical intuitions. More specifically, I'll suggest that there are two central problems that prevent a deeper understanding of the cognitive source of intuitions from doing much of what we would like it to do. The first problem is that for an important range of philosophical intuitions, it is doubtful that there is a stable set of cognitive processes and mechanisms generating them that is sufficiently universal to allow for the sort of generalizations we would like. Philosophical intuitions are likely created by an assortment of varying psychological operations, and that learning about how a particular intuition is created is unlikely to tell us much about how other intuitions are formed. In short, there is no faculty of intuition in any meaningful sense. I call this the 'Etiological-Diversity Problem'. The second problem stems from the fact that one of the primary things we want knowledge of the intuition-producing cognitive machinery to tell us about is the reliability of the intuitions they produce. However, this expectation gets the normal order backwards. The evaluation of cognitive processes or mechanisms typically requires a prior evaluation of the normative status of the states it produces in different contexts, distinguishing proper functioning and competence from improper functioning and performance errors by virtue of the quality of the mechanism's output. It is far less clear how this order can be reversed. Consequently, it is hard to see how an understanding of intuition-producing mechanisms will allow us to evaluate the epistemic status of philosophical intuitions without already having such an evaluation in hand. I call this the 'The Secondary Calibration Problem'. The upshot is that even though I believe there is much to learn about the etiology of intuitions that will be useful, these problems severely hamper our ability to answer many of the central questions we have about the nature and trustworthiness of philosophical intuitions.

Excremental Happiness: From Neurotic Hedonism to Dialectical Pessimism

This essay resists steering an unhappy third-way between avowedly “critical” approaches to happiness (Freud, Žižek) and more “positive” perspectives (Benjamin, Badiou), and instead turns the tables. In the first half, focusing upon Thomas Mann’s short story “The Will to Happiness,” it examines neurotic hedonism—a more sophisticated variant of the hysteric’s old game of deriving satisfaction from unsatisfied desire itself—and some of the “necessary fictions” which undergird it. In the second half, it explores what it might mean, at least in theory, to move beyond neurotic hedonism by embracing a different perspective: dialectical pessimism. This pessimistic outlook is allied to the activity of critique, but it also requires a specific conception of the self; namely, the self as the “manure” (Gramsci) of history. How can the very idea of happiness be rethought from this “excremental” perspective?

The Impact of Green Preferences on the Relevance of History Versus Expectations

In an OLG model with multiple steady states we analyse the impact of endogenous environmental policies on the relevance of history and expectations for the equilibrium selection. In a polluting regime environmental preferences cause an increasing energy tax which raises the risk that the economy transits to the inferior equilibrium under pessimistic expectations. However, higher environmental preferences imply an earlier switch to the clean energy regime. Then, the conflict between production and environmental preferences is resolved and the prospects to select the superior equilibrium improve, since positive expectations become more relevant. In an empirical analysis we find that people with environmental preferences tend to have more optimistic expectations about economic development. Using these findings to analyse the steady state dynamics implies that agents with environmental preferences support higher energy taxes and switch faster to clean production. Due to their optimism, the likelihood to reach the superior stable steady state increases.

Digital Control in Value Chains: Challenges of Connectivity for East African Firms

In recent years, Internet connectivity has greatly improved across the African continent. This article examines the consequences that this shift has had for East African firms that are part of global value chains (GVCs). Prior work yielded contradictory expectations: firms might benefit from connectivity through increased efficiencies and improved access to markets, although they might also be further marginalized through increasing control of lead firms. Drawing on extensive qualitative research in Kenya and Rwanda, including 264 interviews, we examine 3 sectors (tea, tourism, and business process outsourcing) exploring overarching, cross-cutting themes. The findings support more pessimistic expectations: small African producers are only thinly digitally integrated in GVCs. Moreover, shifting modes of value chain governance, supported by lead firms and facilitated by digital information platforms and data standards are leading to new challenges for firms looking to digitally integrate. Nevertheless, we also find examples in these sectors of opportunities where small firms are able to cater to emerging niche customers, and local or regional markets. Overall, the study shows that improving connectivity does not inherently benefit African firms in GVCs without support for complementary capacity and competitive advantages.

Enhancing knowledge sharing in high-tech firms

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to explore the development of knowledge sharing from the perspectives of broaden-and-build theory and expectancy theory. Its research purpose is to understand how knowledge sharing is driven by such predictors as optimism, pessimism, and positive affect through their complex interactions with collectivism or power distance. In the proposed model of this study, knowledge sharing relates to optimism and pessimism via the partial mediation of positive affect. At the same time, the influence of optimism, pessimism, and positive affect on knowledge sharing are moderated by the national culture of collectivism and power distance, respectively. Design/methodology/approach This study’s hypotheses were empirically tested using data from high-tech firms across Taiwan and Malaysia. Of the 550 questionnaires provided to the research participants, 397 usable questionnaires were collected (total response rate of 72.18 percent), with 237 usable questionnaires from Taiwanese employees and 160 usable questionnaires from Malaysian employees. The data from Taiwan and Malaysia were pooled and analyzed using: confirmatory factor analysis for verifying data validity, independent sample t-tests for verifying the consistency with previous literature regarding cultural differences, and hierarchical regression analysis for testing relational and moderating effects. Findings This study demonstrates the integrated application of the broaden-and-build theory and expectancy theory for understanding optimism, pessimism, and positive affect in the development of knowledge sharing. The test results confirm that positive affect partially mediates the relationship between optimism and knowledge sharing and fully mediates the relationship between pessimism and knowledge sharing. Moreover, collectivism and power distance have significant moderating effects on most of the model paths between knowledge sharing and its predictors except for the relationship between pessimism and knowledge sharing. Originality/value This study extends the expectancy theory to justify how optimistic and pessimistic expectations are stable traits that dominate the way employees share their knowledge sharing. This study shows how collectivism and power distance of Hofstede’s cultural framework can be blended with the broaden-and-build theory and expectancy theory to jointly explain knowledge sharing. Besides, this study provides additional support to the adaptation theory of well-being that suggests psychosocial interventions, which manage to enhance well-being by leveraging positive affect, hold the promise of reducing stressful symptoms and boosting psychological resources among employees.

Life Events and Pension Plan Participant Engagement

We study the use of life events (e.g., getting married, starting a new job) for effective pension communication. Pension plan participants are often not open to pension communication, nor do they engage in pension planning. Overcoming this lack of engagement is important: participants should form realistic expectations about their retirement finances, discover pension gaps early enough to be able to take appropriate action, and experience less negative emotions and retirement anxiety in case of unwarranted pessimistic expectations. Sending pension-related information when important life events take place is often suggested to enhance the effectiveness of communication. Life events may represent teachable moments and thus lead to more openness to pension communication and planning. In this paper, we first review the literature on life events as teachable moments. Second, we provide an overview of life events that are especially suited to increase engagement. Third, we present empirical evidence on life events and participant engagement. Finally, we derive implications for theory as well as practice. Overall, we find that in theory life events appear to be good points to improve communications. The evidence from in-depth interviews with experts and pension plan participants, as well as survey data from participants, shows mixed results. It seems that several major challenges need to be addressed for successfully using of life events.

P.3.a.005 - Disrupting protein-protein interactions of neuronal nitric oxide synthase: implications in schizophrenia-related behaviours

Expectancies play an important and understudied role in influencing a negotiator's decision to be deceptive. Studies 1a–1e investigated the sources of negotiators' expectancies, finding evidence of projection and pessimism; negotiators consistently overestimated the prevalence of people who share their views on deception and assumed a sizable share of others embrace deceptive tactics. This phenomenon generalized beyond American samples to Chinese students (Study 1d) and Turkish adults (Study 1e). Study 2 demonstrated that pessimistic expectancies about others' ethics positively predicted the degree to which negotiators were dishonest, above and beyond their own stated ethical views, and that it did so across both distributive and integrative negotiations. Study 3 provided evidence of a causal relationship between expectancies of others' ethical views and dishonest behavior by manipulating expectancies. Study 4 provided additional evidence of this causal relationship in a live, dyadic exchange where performance was incentive compatible. Negotiators' deceptive behavior was shaped by their pessimism about others' ethical standards. We consider the implications of these findings for preventing deception in negotiations.

Statistical Analysis of the Development of Ukrainian Industry: Has It Reserves?

The current of prospective trends in investment processes at industrial enterprises of Ukraine are studied using the data from Business Tendency Surveys (BTS), which tend to be overlooked by domestic analysts. The study is made by the system of survey indicators, proposed by the author, and in comparison with the data on EU as the whole, and Lithuania and Poland in particular. The study’s objective is to find out whether or not Ukrainian enterprises need external or internal investment given a high ratio of production capacities utilization, if the respondents’ treatment of this indicator may be ambiguous.
 Ukrainian industrial enterprises have the non-stop feeling of investment shortage and report very pessimistic expectations in this respect. The situation is ultimately different at industrial enterprises in European countries: at EU level the respondents’ attitudes are moderately positive regarding both expected and reported investment As regards Lithuanian enterprises, they might have received sizeable financial “injections” and, therefore, have quite optimistic expectations for future.
 The utilization of production capacities at enterprises is analyzed in parallel with the dynamics of investment processes, because when an enterprise has idle capacities, the question arises: does it really need any investment? The enterprise’s capacities may not be utilized optimally due to technical or technological reasons, but they are recorded anyway in calculating the utilization ratio; it is not known, therefore, what made respondents give such assessments. According to the information coming from Ukrainian surveys, with production capacities more than sufficient and utilization ratio lower than the normal, the significant lack of demand for products is reported. In European countries, where the demand has to stimulate further investment growth, much higher ratio of production capacities utilization is fixed.
 Therefore, Ukrainian enterprises need investment because of no massive renovation of facilities, which means that their production capacities cannot produce the output that could have been generated in case of their moral and physical renovation. This could have resulted in the enhanced competitiveness of Ukrainian products and the higher demand for them.

A multi-facet pain survey of psychosocial complaints among patients with long-standing non-malignant pain

Background and aimsPsychometric inventories and scales intended to measure cognitive, emotional and behavioural concomitants of pain are typically constructed by deducting items from theoretically derived concepts related to pain states, e.g. social support, perceived control, depressiveness, and catastrophizing. The aim of this study was to design a clinically useful, generic pain distress inventory – The Multi-Facet Pain Survey (MFPS) – inductively derived from psychological and social complaints reported by a study group of individuals with severe chronic nonmalignant pain. MethodsExtensive clinical interviews with hospitalized chronic pain patients were made by clinical psychologists. The purpose was to highlight the patients’ pain histories and their beliefs and feelings about the pain, and to determine factors possibly influencing their rehabilitation potential. The types of distress reported were sorted into categories with a procedure similar to content analysis. Distress reports were converted to statements, forming items in a questionnaire, the Multi-Facet Pain Survey. ResultsOur analyses supported a distress structure including 15 categories, or “facets”, comprising in all 190 types of psychosocial distress. Ten of the facets denote beliefs about the present condition and aspects of distress experienced in daily life (e.g. cognitive problems); three facets reflect the illness history, and two the patient's views on future prospects. To improve the clinical utility, we shortened the scale into a 53 items inventory. A factor analysis of these 53 items revealed four clinically meaningful factors: (1) stress-related exhaustion; (2) impact of pain on daily life; (3) self-inefficacy in regard to future prospects; and (4) negative experiences of health care. While the second factor represents distress directly related to the pain, the first factor reflects long-term exhaustion effects of the pain condition similar to those seen in individuals exposed to long periods of stress. Items loading in the third factor reflect a pessimistic outlook on the future. The content validity of the scale was explored by predicting and testing correlations between the 15 MFPS facets, and the Symptom Checklist (SCL-90) and the West Haven Yale Multidimensional Pain Inventory (MPI). Some of the MFPS facets showed little or no agreement with any of the subscales of the comparison measures. The homogeneity was satisfactory both for facets and factors. ConclusionsThe Multi-Facet Pain Survey (MFPS) facets cover a broad array of experienced psychosocial distress in patients with severe, longstanding pain. Some facets of psychosocial impact of longstanding pain states shown in the qualitatively derived distress facets, or by the latent factors found in the factor analysis, may complement our understanding of the long-term impact of pain. Consequently, MFPS may improve the assessment of psychological and social complaints and complications in patients with chronic pain. ImplicationsThe MFPS will hopefully be an assessment tool supporting the psychological contribution to a biopsychosocial evaluation of patients with severe, longstanding pain. By exposing a broad range of suffering, MFPS may contribute to alternative treatment options and a better prognosis of future rehabilitation.

The Process of Developing a Co-design and Co-delivery Initiative for Mental Health Programming

In a field traditionally fraught with pessimistic expectations and lower client satisfaction, recovery in mental health care is a beacon of light guiding practitioners and clients alike toward a more hopeful, optimistic future where possibility exists. An important component of the recovery model is the inclusion of service users in the management of their illness, developing wellness, and treatment planning. However, recovery in mental health is a relatively young theoretical and philosophical approach: efforts to shift from philosophy and theory to actual system change within the Canadian mental healthcare system have proven challenging. In our experience implementing a recovery-oriented program to support service users to co-design and co-deliver wellness groups, we learned about our hospital’s readiness for transformational system change and the specific needs with regard to this type of change. The purpose of this article is to describe our process, and share our successes and obstacles in order to inspire and support others who are interested in attempting to incorporate recovery-oriented practices into their settings.

On the implications of declining population growth for regional migration

Although many advanced economies nowadays experience decreasing populations, migration in models of economic growth has so far been almost exclusively analyzed for the case of non-negative population growth rates. This paper considers decreasing and possibly negative population growth rates in two two-sector growth models. As long as preferences are homothetic, neither a decrease in population growth rates nor an actual population decline does induce migration in either direction. Introducing quasi-linear preferences implies that a decline in population growth leads to migration from the rural to the industrial region. A complete depopulation of the rural region takes place if the population growth rate falls short of minus the rate of physical capital depreciation. These results reinforce pessimistic expectations about a rural exodus.

Foreign Aid as a Counterterrorism Tool

Is foreign aid effective in reducing terrorism? The existing evidence is mostly negative. We argue that this pessimistic outlook on the efficacy of aid as a counterterrorism tool is partly a function of focusing on only one type of aid: economic aid. Governance and civil society aid can dampen the participation in and support for terrorism by altering the political conditions of a country. We expect countries that receive high levels of governance and civil society aid to experience fewer domestic terrorist incidents than countries that receive little or none. Using a sample of aid eligible countries for the period from 1997 to 2010, we find that governance and civil society aid is effective in dampening domestic terrorism, but this effect is only present if the recipient country is not experiencing a civil conflict. Our findings provide support for the continued use of democracy aid as a counterterrorism tool.

The entanglement of emotion and reality: an investigation of the Taiwanese people’s attitudes towards Taigi

ABSTRACTThis study adopted both indirect and direct methods to probe into Taiwanese people’s attitudes towards Taigi. The indirect method involved a verbal guise experiment with four Taigi speakers – Old-H (higher competence), Old-L (lower competence), Young- H, and Young-L. Participants, including old and young, must complete a questionnaire indirectly investigating their attitudes towards these four guises. The direct method involved a direct questionnaire. Results showed both pessimistic and optimistic outlooks of Taigi. Pessimistically, the participants, both the old and young, evaluated H competence Taigi higher. This result suggested that Taigi revitalisation is being confronted with the potential challenge of Taigi purism, since revitalised Taigi can hardly avoid the influences from Mandarin, the dominant language in Taiwan. In addition, Taigi was considered being alienated from the dimension of youthfulness. However, optimistically, within the H speakers, Young-H were preferred than Old-H, who were in fact more native in Taigi than Young-H speakers. This study, based on the results, further offered suggestions towards the Taigi language policy of Taiwan.

Breaking the “Iron Rice Bowl” and Precautionary Swings: Evidence from Chinese State-Owned Enterprises Reform

We use China's large-scale reform of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in the late 1990s as a natural experiment to identify and quantify the importance of precautionary saving for wealth accumulation. Before the reform, SOE workers enjoyed the same job security as government employees. Since the reform, over 35 million SOE workers have been laid off, although government employees kept their iron rice bowl. The change in unemployment risk for SOE workers relative to that of government employees before and after the reform provides a clean identification of income uncertainty that helps us estimate the importance of precautionary saving. In our estimation, we correct a self-selection bias in occupational choice and disentangle the effects of uncertainty from pessimistic outlook. We obtain evidence that precautionary savings account for at least one-third of the wealth accumulation for SOE workers between 1995 and 2002.

Dystopian Fiction for Young People: Instructive Tales of Resilience

ABSTRACTThe rise and popularity of dystopian fiction in recent years is quite marked, and critics often attribute such high sales of books and box office as being linked to the impact September 11 has had on the world, especially in the United States. Although the events of September 11, 2001 saw a heightened anxiety by nations and their citizens about the fear and threat of terrorism—an anxiety that is paradoxically lowered and raised by increased surveillance practices, security checks, and warnings—other changes since the last stages of the twentieth century have also raised concerns and anxieties. The processes of globalization, immigration, and advances in technology have brought about many social and economic changes, and advances in nanobiology are redefining the very essence of life. The extrapolation of the world people currently know into the very worst of future scenarios is the subject of dystopian fiction. Dystopian narratives are diverse in their treatment of future scenarios, with some presenting a pessimistic outlook and others offering “a horizon of hope” (Moylan, 2000, p. 147).

Obama’s Challenge to China: The Pivot to Asia, by Chi Wang. Farnham: Ashgate, 2015. vi+321 pp. £70.00 (cloth); also available as an eBook.

Previous articleNext article FreeReviewsObama’s Challenge to China: The Pivot to Asia, by Chi Wang. Farnham: Ashgate, 2015. vi+321 pp. £70.00 (cloth); also available as an eBook.Chin-Hao HuangChin-Hao HuangYale–NUS College, Singapore Search for more articles by this author PDFPDF PLUSFull Text Add to favoritesDownload CitationTrack CitationsPermissionsReprints Share onFacebookTwitterLinked InRedditEmailQR Code SectionsMoreChi Wang’s latest book provides a comprehensive account of the recent history of US foreign policy toward China. The book challenges the pessimistic outlook that the two countries are marching lockstep toward a preordained path of conflict and rivalry, but it also warns that the United States’ “pivot” or “rebalance” to Asia has stirred up fears and anxieties reflective of a testy relationship. Within this context the book raises an interesting overarching research puzzle: why does the public diplomatic discourse between the United States and China speak of cooperation while their actions imply that each side is expecting conflict?The book aptly characterizes US-China relations as oscillating between “reassurance and cooperation” and “deterrence and confrontation.” A notable shift toward the latter occurred when trusted “China hands” and senior advisors to President Obama left their positions in the administration. In particular, the book credits James Steinberg and Jeffrey Bader for being the point persons for strengthening US policy in Asia, especially on China, and their departure in 2011 led to a gradual worsening of bilateral relations. The ushering in of a new team of Asia advisors, including Kurt Campbell and Daniel Russel, reflected different policy agendas and preferences, including a deepening of US relations with Japan, Korea, Indonesia, and Vietnam, countries that have complicated relations with China. According to Chi Wang, this has led to a tougher and more hawkish set of US policies that are intended to constrain and deter China.While the book makes a convincing argument about the impact of personnel changes on US foreign policy, it is worth noting that tensions and public spats between the United States and China predated the pivotal year of 2011. For instance, Washington began to take a tougher approach toward Beijing with its arms sale to Taiwan in January 2010, followed by President Obama’s reception of the Dalai Lama a month later. These actions spurred the US-China rift at the early onset of the Obama administration, and they unfolded during Steinberg and Bader’s tenure in government. There is no doubt that a different set of senior policy advisors on Asia could have contributed to deeper tensions, but there may be other equally plausible contributing factors as well, chief among which was China’s evolving cost-benefit calculus and growing confidence. Shortly after Obama assumed office in 2009, Beijing was lukewarm and even reluctant to take on Washington’s overtures to prioritize and elevate bilateral cooperation. A growing nationalism in China’s domestic politics resisted cooperation with a weakening superpower. This proud, self-righteous narrative within China posed difficult challenges for sustained bilateral cooperation on such sensitive issues as trade deficit, regional maritime disputes, human rights, and climate change. An action-reaction dynamic in turn led decision makers from both sides of the Pacific to assume the worst-case scenario in each other’s intentions.The book’s broader observation is valid: US-China relations are becoming increasingly complicated, with recent trend lines pointing toward more visible confrontation. Chi Wang perceives an urgent need to execute a more coherent and consistent US policy that reflects what Anthony Lake, former national security adviser, said two decades ago during his visit to Beijing: “America respects China. America wants China to be part of the system governing the world in the twenty-first century. … The United States plans to maintain its strong military presence in Asia and the Pacific, but only to preserve stability and not to contain China” (58). The latter part of the statement presents the greatest challenge: any policy recommendation that assumes that a robust US security presence in Asia is essential to preempt and offset a possible power transition in the region can lead to a continued, costly deterioration in US-China relations.Getting US-China relations back on track will not be an easy task for the new US administration. But, it could start by the president’s appointing the right strategic advisers with the right political acumen to strike a delicate balance between reassurance and deterrence, as part of a larger goal of restoring trust and cooperation in the world’s most important bilateral relationship. Previous articleNext article DetailsFiguresReferencesCited by The China Journal Volume 77January 2017 Published on behalf of the Australian Centre on China in the World at the Australian National University Article DOIhttps://doi.org/10.1086/689239 For permission to reuse, please contact [email protected]PDF download Crossref reports no articles citing this article.

Attrition and Outcome in Group Psychotherapy among Traumatized and Non-Traumatized Inpatients

Objective: To examine the impact of correlates of trauma on the appropriateness for group therapy (GT) in 60 participants based on the similarity of the exclusion criteria for GT to the features of posttraumatic disturbances and borderline personality. Method: We assessed the correlates of trauma (PTSD, complex PTSD, dissociation), features of BPD, psychopathological distress and the readiness for GT. Results: There were inverse correlations between the motivation for GT and multiple symptoms, as well as weak associations with the correlates of trauma. Pessimistic expectations of GT and dissociative amnesia were linked to worse outcomes, while phobic anxiety predicted continuation of therapy. Conclusion: Dissociative amnesia and the expectation of GT are potential targets for pre-group preparation for trauma-related disorders.

Perception of prognosis of cancer patients by non-oncologists.

Data are lacking regarding the perception of cancer patients' prognosis by physicians who are not oncologists. This was a multicenter survey of seven university-affiliated hospitals, assessing physicians' perception of the median survival of patients with seven advanced malignancies. The study cohort included physicians from all 73 internal medicine, surgery, emergency medicine and critical care departments in the participating hospitals. Family practitioners were contacted through email. Physicians' specialty, age, professional status and hospital type (secondary vs tertiary) were noted. The primary end-point was defined as the percentage of answers with a pessimistic error of more than a year in perception of prognosis as compared with current literature. The secondary end-point was defined as any pessimistic answer. Four hundred and eighty-eight physicians filled the questionnaire, including 429 hospital physicians and 59 family practitioners. Perception of prognosis was pessimistic when compared with current literature, with 37% and 59% of the answers meeting the primary and the secondary end-points, respectively. Younger age, resident status and work at a secondary hospital were associated with pessimistic perception (P<.001 for all variables). Pessimistic outlook was similar for all specialties and for most malignancies, including those with considerable cure rates such as Hodgkin's lymphoma and germ cell tumour. Non-oncologists are considerably over pessimistic regarding their perception of the cancer patients' prognosis. A pessimistic perception of prognosis might cause undertreatment and therefore affect both patients' quality of life and their actual survival. Education regarding cancer therapy and its benefits should be emphasised for non-oncologists involved in cancer patient care.

Cenários do ramo de materiais de construção civil na cidade de Toledo/PR: percepções frente à crise de 2015

O presente estudo objetivou analisar a percepção de cenários de dois empresários do ramo de materiais de construção civil na cidade de Toledo, oeste do Paraná, por meio das cinco forças competitivas de Porter e da matriz SWOT. Empregou-se a análise de conteúdo temática de duas entrevistas semiestruturadas, utilizando-se para isso o software ATLAS.ti. Este estudo permitiu demonstrar que ambos tiveram uma perspectiva realista e otimista quanto aos cenários futuros no ramo de materiais de construção civil para a cidade de Toledo, diferente da perspectiva pessimista que vem se desenvolvendo no cenário econômico e político nacional. É importante ressaltar que, nos dois casos, o que corrobora para esta visão está vinculado à percepção de que a economia regional, baseada no agronegócio e na indústria farmacêutica, ainda não foi diretamente afetada pela crise.

Complying with voluntary energy conservation agreements (I): Air conditioning in Hong Kong’s shopping malls

Voluntary agreements might play an alternative, complementary role in environmental governance. However, its effectiveness could be compromised because entities are not obliged to participate. Utilising the economic theory of crime and punishment, this research explains energy management decisions on complying with a voluntary energy conservation agreement. The 25.5°C guideline for indoor air conditioning in Hong Kong's shopping malls is studied. A thermal sensation profile of shopping mall visitors is presented, with more people feeling cold, and the voluntary agreement was not under wide compliance. We rationalise air conditioning management decisions through soliciting the behavioural responses in a field survey of shopping mall visitors. People's reactions to hotness, such as leaving the shopping malls, essentially result in higher costs for shopping malls, while they respond to coldness in a less costly manner, mainly by putting on an overcoat or scarf. Monitoring and penalty on non-compliance are too insignificant to tilt the decision. The conventional argument of saving money by energy conservation could thus be ineffective because shopping mall managers have to consider other potential benefits of energy consumption, like retaining visitors. We conclude with a relatively pessimistic outlook for the effectiveness of voluntary energy conservation agreements on air conditioning.