Pessimistic Outlook Research Articles

Working outside academia? Perceptions of early-career, fixed-term researchers on changing careers

ABSTRACTThis article examines the perceptions of early-career, fixed-term researchers in Finnish universities towards changing careers. It maps out the reasons this group has considered the change and where they see themselves in five years. As a theoretical framework, a synthesisation of variables related to career change, created by Ryan, Healy, and Sullivan [2012. “Oh, Won’t You Stay? Predictors of Faculty Intent to Leave a Public University.” Higher Education 63: 421–437.], was used. The results show that the most common reasons for early-career researchers to change careers are job-security related stress, job-related dissatisfaction, and salary. Over half of the respondents would like to work at a university in five years; however, half of the respondents would also be happy to work in industry. Further examination of the responses highlighted the polarisation of those academics who were optimistic about their future employment opportunities in academia and those with highly pessimistic outlooks. The results of the study bear crucial importance when addressing the current discussion and issues related to the career paths of early-career researchers in Europe.

Moral Hazard, Dynamic Incentives, and Ambiguous Perceptions

This paper considers dynamic moral hazard settings, in which the consequences of the agent's actions is not precisely understood. In a new continuous-time principal-agent model with drift ambiguity, the agent's unobservable action translates to drift set for the diffusion processes that describe evolution of output. The agent and the principal has symmetric imprecise information about the technology, and both seek robust performance from a contract in relation to their respective worst-case scenarios. We show that the optimal long-term contract aligns the party's pessimistic expectations and broadly features flattening of the high-powered incentives. Methodologically, we provide a tractable way to formulate and characterize optimal long-run contracts with drift ambiguity. Substantively, our results provide some insights into the formal link between robustness and simplicity of dynamic contracts, in particular that presence of ambiguity flattens high-powered incentives.

НОВЫЙ РОССИЙСКИЙ КРИЗИС: СНИЖЕНИЕ ПОТРЕБЛЕНИЯ НА ФОНЕ СОЦИАЛЬНОЙ АПАТИИ

<p align="justify">Анализируются динамика и структура ВВП, доходов и расходов населения в 2009 г., 2014-2015 гг. Диагностировано, что население воспринимает текущий кризис как затяжной и переходящий в стагнацию. Удорожание и снижение объема импорта сильно воздействовали на структурные показатели и дефляторы элементов ВВП, в частности, обусловив большой разрыв в индексах цен производства, с одной стороны, а с другой - конечного использования, валового накопления и чистого экспорта. Сильный спад потребления может в определенной мере отражать пессимистические настроения домохозяйств с высокими и средними доходами. Нетипичный для краткосрочных рецессий рост прибыли сопровождается резким снижением реальной оплаты труда. </font>

Геополітичнний образ майбутнього молоді з різних регіонів України в контексті психологічної безпеки

Розкривається феномен прогностичних уявлень (образів майбутнього) сучасної вітчизняної молоді про власну країну і світ. Такі уявлення (прогностичні геополітичні макрообрази) розглядаються як невід’ємна складова масової політичної (і геополітичної) свідомості. Наведено дані авторського емпіричного дослідження, яке проводилось у 2018 році за допомогою методів анкетування та тестування за участі 160 студентів із трьох регіонів України: Донбасу (м. Старобільськ), Північного Сходу (м. Чернігів) та Центру (м. Київ). З огляду на отримані дані зроблено висновок, що геополітичні образи майбутнього в масовій геополітичній свідомості молоді являють собою “мікс” оптимістичних і песимістичних очікувань та уявлень. Виявлено як спільні, так і специфічні особливості геополітичних образів майбутнього молоді різних регіонів. Зауважено, зокрема, що найбільш вираженою спільною рисою останніх є поширеність песимістичних уявлень про перспективи подолання в Україні корупції. Виявлено, що регіональні відмінності образів майбутнього найбільшою мірою пов’язані з прогнозуванням перспектив соціально-економічного та зовнішньополітичного розвитку України, повернення контролю над Кримом. Наявність універсальних (трансрегіональних) уявлень пояснюється спільними аспектами життєвого досвіду в країні та впливом ЗМІ, а виявлені відмінності – впливом регіональних особливостей політичної культури, специфікою соціально-політичної та соціально-економічної ситуації в регіоні (локальними аспектами життєвого досвіду). Визначено та описано тенденції зв’язку прогностичних образів із показниками психологічної безпеки молоді, які досліджувалися за допомогою “Шкали базисних переконань” Р. Янофф-Бульман. Зокрема, з’ясовано, що ці показники пов’язані зі ступенем оптимістичності-песимістичності прогнозування молоддю соціальнополітичного розвитку власної країни. Встановлено, що найбільшою мірою образи майбутнього країни корелювали з такими показниками психологічної безпеки, як “Доброзичливість навколишнього світу” та “Справедливість”.
 Ключові слова: образ майбутнього, прогностичні уявлення, студентська молодь, оптимізм-песимізм, психологічна безпека.

Dispositional optimism and physical health: A long look back, a quick look forward.

Dispositional optimism is the generalized, relatively stable tendency to expect good outcomes across important life domains. This article provides a representative review of 30 years of research on dispositional optimism and physical well-being. Assessment of optimism is described, along with data regarding its stability. A review of the research linking optimism and physical health is then presented. Included in the review are initial studies suggesting that optimism and physical well-being might be linked as well as more recent, larger scale epidemiological studies that make the point more emphatically. Also considered are potential pathways-behavioral, biological, and social-that might explain these associations. The article concludes with a brief look to the future, describing several issues and questions that still need to be answered. These questions include the relationship of optimism and pessimism to each other (and the implications of that relationship for physical well-being), the origins of optimism and pessimism, and interventions that might be implemented to reduce the negative impact of a pessimistic outlook. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

How to Boost Faculty Research Performance in HEI’s to Improve Intellectual Property by Integrating it with Faculty Compensation – A “Theory of Accountability” based Framework

The objective of campus based higher education is now shifting from mass education to customized education and in such model involving students in research by faculty members is an essential part. Such research focused higher education model not only benefits the students but also provides an opportunity for the institution to create intellectual property in its name. To encourage faculty members to be involved in research and publications, higher education institutions (HEIs) are trying to find various strategies. Faculty compensation is one of the important strategies in higher education institutions as faculty members are the brain of the system and creators of an intellectual asset to the institution. Making faculty compensation dynamic is a very attractive and effective way in order to involve faculty members in research and publications. In this paper, we have studied the changing objectives of autonomous HEIs like private universities towards developing Intellectual property by shifting their focus towards research and publications using their financial autonomy. As a part of such initiatives, an improved model of faculty compensation is proposed based on Annual Performance Based Component (APBC) and discussed how it adds value to the HEIs by inspiring the faculty member’s involvement and accountability to create a tangible asset of intangible intellectual property. The paper also discusses the cases of pessimistic expectations, most-likely expectations, and optimistic expectations of faculty performance and its financial implications on the institution by simulating these estimates.

How to Boost Faculty Research Performance in HEI's to Improve Intellectual Property by Integrating it with Faculty Compensation – A "Theory of Accountability" based Framework

The objective of campus based higher education is now shifting from mass education to customized education and in such model involving students in research by faculty members is an essential part. Such research focused higher education model not only benefits the students but also provides an opportunity for the institution to create intellectual property in its name. To encourage faculty members to be involved in research and publications, higher education institutions (HEIs) are trying to find various strategies. Faculty compensation is one of the important strategies in higher education institutions as faculty members are the brain of the system and creators of an intellectual asset to the institution. Making faculty compensation dynamic is a very attractive and effective way in order to involve faculty members in research and publications. In this paper, we have studied the changing objectives of autonomous HEIs like private universities towards developing Intellectual property by shifting their focus towards research and publications using their financial autonomy. As a part of such initiatives, an improved model of faculty compensation is proposed based on Annual Performance Based Component (APBC) and discussed how it adds value to the HEIs by inspiring the faculty member’s involvement and accountability to create a tangible asset of intangible intellectual property. The paper also discusses the cases of pessimistic expectations, most-likely expectations, and optimistic expectations of faculty performance and its financial implications on the institution by simulating these estimates.

Have We Reached the Limits of Predictability for Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting?

AbstractThe tropical cyclone is the largest single-day-impact meteorological event in the United States and worldwide through its effects from storm surge, extreme winds, freshwater flooding, and embedded tornadoes. Fortunately, over the last three decades there have been incredible advances in forecast accuracy, especially for the track of the tropical cyclone’s center. Errors have been cut by two-thirds in just 25 years due to global modeling advances, data assimilation improvements, dramatic increases in observations primarily derived from satellite platforms, and use of ensemble forecast techniques. These four factors have allowed for highly accurate synoptic-scale atmospheric initial conditions and forecasts of the steering flow out through several days into the future. However, such improvements cannot continue indefinitely. It is well known in the atmospheric sciences that there exists an inherent “limit of predictability” because of errors at the smallest scales (microscale—meters and seconds) that eventually cascade up to the largest scales (synoptic scale—thousands of kilometers and several days). While there have been estimates of the limits of predictability for tropical cyclone track prediction in the past, our current capabilities have exceeded those somewhat pessimistic earlier outlooks. This essay discusses the current state of the art for tropical cyclone track prediction and reassesses whether reaching the “limit of predictability” is imminent. The ramifications of this eventual conclusion—whether in the short-term or still decades away—could be critical for all users of tropical cyclone track forecast information, including the emergency management community/governments, the media, the private sector, and the general public.

Should I Stay or Should I Go? The Role of Impostorism in STEM Persistence

Impostor phenomenon or “impostorism” refers to the experience of high-achieving individuals (particularly women) who, despite being successful, attribute their accomplishments to luck, and fear being exposed as frauds. In the current study, we examined the association between impostorism and graduate student self-efficacy, perceptions of the research-training environment, and attitudes toward academic persistence of 224 women completing a science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM)-related doctoral degree. As hypothesized, participants who identified more strongly with impostor characteristics reported a lower sense of self-efficacy, more negative views of their academic context, and more pessimistic outlooks toward attaining their doctorate. However, results from a multiple mediation analysis revealed that women’s levels of self-efficacy and perceptions of their doctoral environment accounted for the effects of impostorism on their attitudes about academic persistence. Also, the relation between impostorism and persistence attitudes strengthened as numerical representation of women in a STEM program increased. Results illuminate the potential role STEM departments can have on students’ persistence by developing early opportunities for research collaborations and fostering an early sense of accomplishment. Parents and teachers might also draw from our findings to develop strategies to inoculate younger students from the insidious effects of gender-based stereotypes. Online slides for instructors who want to use this article for teaching are available on PWQ's website at http://journals.sagepub.com/page/pwq/suppl/index

Interview with 2019 SPE President Sami Alnuaim

President's interview Sami Alnuaim has been with Saudi Aramco for 31 years, where he has worked in reservoir engineering, production engineering, research and development, and at the upstream computer center. He currently serves as manager, Petroleum Engineering Application Services, where he has full responsibility for providing technical information technology support to all upstream operations, including exploration, drilling, production, reservoir engineering, and facility design. Alnuaim has a long history of service to SPE and has been a member of the SPE Middle East Board of Directors. He has won several local, regional, and international awards, including the SPE Regional Service Award for the Middle East in 2010 and the SPE Distinguished Service Award, and became an SPE Distinguished Member in 2011. He also has served on the society’s DeGolyer, Rand, and McConnell Awards Committee and the 2017 SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition Executive Advisory Committee. He has published a number of technical papers, holds several patents related to well performance, and teaches petroleum engineering at King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals (KFUPM). Alnuaim serves on the petroleum engineering department advisory boards at KFUPM and King Saud University. He is a key figure in the Saudi and Middle Eastern energy and media sectors, having published more than 300 articles on oil and gas and energy in Saudi newspapers. Alnuaim obtained BS and MS degrees from KFUPM, and a PhD degree from the University of Texas at Austin, all in petroleum engineering. He completed the Wharton Executive Management Program at the University of Pennsylvania and the Advanced Asian Business and Culture Program from the Center for Global Business Studies at Pennsylvania State University. What would you like to accomplish during your term of office? In addition to implementing the recently revised SPE Strategic Plan, my top priority will be to show the world that the role of the oil and gas industry is not limited to supporting the global economy, but also improving individuals’ lifestyles while being good stewards of the environment and enabling social development. During my term, I will focus on these specific goals: Improving the oil and gas industry’s image by redefining the concept of sustainability to focus on the industry’s efforts to ensure sustainable, affordable, and cleaner hydrocarbon-based energy sources that support the global economy, improve lifestyle and social development, and take care of the environment. Correcting misconceptions and pessimistic outlooks about the future of the oil and gas industry. Implementing the recently revised SPE Strategic Plan, which puts more emphasis on the environment and social development, in addition to promoting advances and excellence in technology and knowledge collection and dissemination. Building bridges among academic petroleum engineering departments around the world so they can share best technical programs and curricula and strengthen their programs by reflecting recent advances in technology and engagement with communities.

A healthy dose of realism: The role of optimistic and pessimistic expectations when facing a downward spiral in health

Rationale and objectivesWhether expectations about future health are adaptive or maladaptive in late life likely depends on the extent to which they conform to or defy a future reality of declining health. Our premise was that, when adults face a downward spiral in health, it can be adaptive to realistically expect poorer future health and maladaptive to unrealistically expect good health. MethodThis 18-year-long study of community-dwelling older Canadians (n = 132, 72–98 years) involved a baseline interview to identify those who anticipated heath would decline (pessimistic expectation) or improve/remain stable (optimistic expectation). We determined initial (baseline) health status by assessing the severity of chronic conditions. An objective within-person measure of actual health change was derived by documenting hospital admissions (HAs) over time to capture a continuum that ranged from no declines (HAs remained stable) to greater declines in health (increasing numbers of HAs). Our a priori hypotheses examined the effects of health expectations (pessimistic, optimistic) and actual health change on the outcomes of depressive symptoms and mortality. ResultsSupport was found for our premise that it is adaptive to be realistic when forecasting future health, at least at low levels of initial chronic condition severity. Regression analyses showed that realistically pessimistic (vs. unrealistically optimistic) expectations predicted significantly fewer depressive symptoms and a lower risk of death. The results also supported our premise that it is maladaptive to be unrealistically optimistic when health subsequently declines in reality: The risk of death was 313% higher for those with optimistic expectations that were unrealistic (vs. realistic). ConclusionThese findings provide insights for health care professionals regarding the messages they communicate to their patients. Together, they imply that, when good health is slipping away, it seems optimal to encourage a healthy dose of realism.

The improvement strategy on the management status of the old residence community in Chinese cities: An empirical research based on social cognitive perspective

There are a large number of old residential communities and their management state is related to thousands of families. As a typical representative country of the developing countries, China has a wider public influence because of its own special housing reform. However, the government's policies such as renovation and marketization management have had little effect. Why it is so hard to improve the management of old communities? In the current research, gradually transforming from urban renewal to the sustainable management improvement, but there are few to find the solution of the problem from owners’ perspective. Therefore, from the perspective of social cognition, we established a cognitive theoretical model of owners’ participation in community management according to a framework of interaction among individuals, environment and behavior. In addition, we studied the relationship between influencing factors of desire for owners' participation and actual management effects, and discussed the management improving strategies of old residential community. Taking empirical analysis through 1038 questionnaires from owners of 61 old residential communities, results show that the owners efficiency, outcome expectancy, hardware quality, soft resource quality, and neighborhood relationship of old residential community all have positive impacts on owners’ participation in management. Specifically, outcome expectancy has the greatest impact, followed by hardware facilities quality, then soft resources quality and owners efficiency, while neighborhood relationship affect least. This study explains why the government's urban renewal policy failing to change the old residential management difficulties. What’s more we gives solutions to establish a long-term development model which owners participate actively by improving law and disclosing old communities planning to reverse their pessimistic expectations. This paper has great significance on old residential community management theory construction and management practices in many countries with similar problems.

Urban Gothic and the Sphinx Factor: Saul Bellow’s Mr. Sammler’s Planet

Saul Bellow, as a cerebral, analytical, and philosophical writer, unflinchingly describes the world and gives the readers tremendous thoughts about life and society. He was awarded the Nobel Prize in Literature in 1976 for his human understanding and subtle analysis of contemporary culture. In Mr. Sammler’s Planet, Bellow shows the readers a death-burdened, rotting, spoiled, sullied, exasperating, sinful earth. This insane world is full of droll mortality and morbid entertainments. The coexistence of rationality and bestiality in man is vividly displayed in this novel. In his Introduction to Ethical Literary Criticism, Professor Nie Zhenzhao formulated the theory of the Sphinx factor as composed of the human factor and the animal factor, and the combination of the two makes an integrated man. The animal factor in the novel is fully demonstrated in the black pickpocket’s bestiality, Mr. Sammler’s voyeurism, the Holocaust, killings and thefts. However, the human factor is not so salient as the animal factor in this novel. I argue that the tension between the two factors not only intensifies the conflicts but shows how the author perceives the world. Bellow shows a strong contempt for the world. A pessimistic and critical outlook is conveyed in Bellow’s understanding of cities, represented by Chicago and New York. Robbery, cheating, speculation, beauty, money and lust construct a corrupted panorama of industrial cities. This is one of the reasons why Bellow highlights the animal factor more than the human factor. He seeks to criticize the American city from different perspectives of city culture, including the corruption of the bureaucracy, vices in public transport, changes in the urban landscape, competition between the pursuit of art and the pursuit of money.

Фактори економічного зростання в Україні в 2016–2018 рр.

The article considers the main factors of economic growth in Ukraine, starting with the macrostructural shifts in the incomes of the institutional sectors, which resulted in resumed recovery of the level of gross savings and gross fixed capital formation and allowed to increase the supply potential. The author analyzes the influence of the current revival of investment and consumer demand, and external demand, on the GDP dynamics, as well as the causes of the strengthening of the import component on Ukraine's market. It is found that, despite the improvement of the companies' financial results, the rates of capitalization of gross savings in the sector of non-financial corporations are not sufficient due to structural distortions in the distribution of income among economic activities with a concentration of financial resources in the mining and quarrying. And the share of net profits of the producers of investment and consumer resources remains small, which reduces their investment potential and solvency. In turn, the rate of replenishment of the resource base of the banking system from the households' savings is rather weak, since the overwhelming majority of the latter has no money savings at all, and their richer fractions return their savings to banks in a very slow pace. It is proved that uncurbed inflation blocks the achievement of macroeconomic stabilization, and the lack of credits prevents domestic producers from responding adequately to growing consumer and investment demand. It is emphasized that, by intensifying consumer lending, the banking system has created an asymmetry between the financial support of consumer demand and the weak credit support of the domestic producers of consumer goods, which is reflected in the growth of imports even in the group of food products, where Ukrainian producers have every opportunity to keep their market shares on condition of their loan support. Hence, the most pessimistic expectations are still related to the potential of domestic producers in terms of import substitution and increase in non-raw exports. Moreover, taking into account the divergence between the companies' needs for credits and lack of motivation for the banking system to open credit windows, further loss in the shares of Ukrainian producers is expected on both domestic and foreign markets, as Ukraine has no tools for their support, and the banking system mainly provides resources for consumers and importers of consumer goods.

Pessimistic expectations and poorer experiences: The role of (low) extraversion in anticipated and experienced enjoyment of social interaction.

Given research suggesting that social interactions are beneficial, it is unclear why individuals lower in extraversion engage less in social interactions. In this study, we test whether individuals lower in extraversion reap fewer hedonic rewards from social interactions and explore social psychological processes that explain their experiences. Before participants socialized, we measured extraversion, state positive affect, cognitive capacity, and expectations about the social interactions. After participants socialized with one another, we measured state positive affect and cognitive capacity again as well as fear of negative evaluation and belief in limited cognitive capacity. Participants also rated the social skillfulness of each interaction partner. We found that less extraverted individuals expect to feel worse after socializing. However, all but those extremely low in extraversion (17% of sample) actually experience an increase in positive affect after socializing. Surprisingly, those low in extraversion did not show reduced cognitive capacity after socializing. Although they are more likely to believe that cognitive capacity is limited and to be fearful of negative evaluation, these characteristics did not explain the social experience of those low in extraversion.

The DEIMOS 10K Spectroscopic Survey Catalog of the COSMOS Field∗

Abstract We present a catalog of 10,718 objects in the COSMOS field, observed through multi-slit spectroscopy with the Deep Imaging Multi-Object Spectrograph (DEIMOS) on the Keck II telescope in the wavelength range ∼5500–9800 Å. The catalog contains 6617 objects with high-quality spectra (two or more spectral features), and 1798 objects with a single spectroscopic feature confirmed by the photometric redshift. For 2024 typically faint objects, we could not obtain reliable redshifts. The objects have been selected from a variety of input catalogs based on multi-wavelength observations in the field, and thus have a diverse selection function, which enables the study of the diversity in the galaxy population. The magnitude distribution of our objects is peaked at I AB ∼ 23 and K AB ∼ 21, with a secondary peak at K AB ∼ 24. We sample a broad redshift distribution in the range 0 < z < 6, with one peak at z ∼ 1, and another one around z ∼ 4. We have identified 13 redshift spikes at z > 0.65 with chance probabilities < 4 × 10−4, some of which are clearly related to protocluster structures of sizes >10 Mpc. An object-to-object comparison with a multitude of other spectroscopic samples in the same field shows that our DEIMOS sample is among the best in terms of fraction of spectroscopic failures and relative redshift accuracy. We have determined the fraction of spectroscopic blends to about 0.8% in our sample. This is likely a lower limit and at any rate well below the most pessimistic expectations. Interestingly, we find evidence for strong lensing of Lyα background emitters within the slits of 12 of our target galaxies, increasing their apparent density by about a factor of 4.

From belief to deceit: How expectancies about others' ethics shape deception in negotiations

Expectancies play an important and understudied role in influencing a negotiator's decision to be deceptive. Studies 1a–1e investigated the sources of negotiators' expectancies, finding evidence of projection and pessimism; negotiators consistently overestimated the prevalence of people who share their views on deception and assumed a sizable share of others embrace deceptive tactics. This phenomenon generalized beyond American samples to Chinese students (Study 1d) and Turkish adults (Study 1e). Study 2 demonstrated that pessimistic expectancies about others' ethics positively predicted the degree to which negotiators were dishonest, above and beyond their own stated ethical views, and that it did so across both distributive and integrative negotiations. Study 3 provided evidence of a causal relationship between expectancies of others' ethical views and dishonest behavior by manipulating expectancies. Study 4 provided additional evidence of this causal relationship in a live, dyadic exchange where performance was incentive compatible. Negotiators' deceptive behavior was shaped by their pessimism about others' ethical standards. We consider the implications of these findings for preventing deception in negotiations.

Seeing through rose-colored glasses: How optimistic expectancies guide visual attention

Optimism bias and positive attention bias have important highly similar implications for mental health but have only been examined in isolation. Investigating the causal relationships between these biases can improve the understanding of their underlying cognitive mechanisms, leading to new directions in neurocognitive research and revealing important information about normal functioning as well as the development, maintenance, and treatment of psychological diseases. In the current project, we hypothesized that optimistic expectancies can exert causal influences on attention deployment. To test this causal relation, we conducted two experiments in which we manipulated optimistic and pessimistic expectancies regarding future rewards and punishments. In a subsequent visual search task, we examined participants’ attention to positive (i.e., rewarding) and negative (i.e., punishing) target stimuli, measuring their eye gaze behavior and reaction times. In both experiments, participants’ attention was guided toward reward compared with punishment when optimistic expectancies were induced. Additionally, in Experiment 2, participants’ attention was guided toward punishment compared with reward when pessimistic expectancies were induced. However, the effect of optimistic (rather than pessimistic) expectancies on attention deployment was stronger. A key characteristic of optimism bias is that people selectively update expectancies in an optimistic direction, not in a pessimistic direction, when receiving feedback. As revealed in our studies, selective attention to rewarding versus punishing evidence when people are optimistic might explain this updating asymmetry. Thus, the current data can help clarify why optimistic expectancies are difficult to overcome. Our findings elucidate the cognitive mechanisms underlying optimism and attention bias, which can yield a better understanding of their benefits for mental health.

Sponsored Collection | Precision medicine and cancer immunology in China

In order for precision medicine to be successful, accurate characterization of the patient is necessary. A variety of biomarkers could provide the necessary data, collected through a variety of 'omics techniques. However, identifying and characterizing biomarkers that accurately reflect a physiological state (normal or diseased), or response to a particular drug or therapy, has turned out to be challenging. Add to this the complication that biomarkers may differ between population groups, or indeed between individuals, and that tracking these biomarkers as the patient's status changes can be onerous, and the future of precision medicine could be described as bleak. Yet this pessimistic outlook has not stopped researchers from pushing forward in their search for accurate and robust biomarkers, which they hope will help to predict the risk of disease, ascertain the probability of positive clinical outcomes, and evaluate therapeutic efficacy. In this supplement to Science , these important topics are discussed, with a focus on advances in precision medicine research in China. This special supplement brought to you by the Science /AAAS Custom Publishing Office.

Housing Price Dynamics, Mortgage Credit and Reverse Mortgage Demand: Theory and Empirical Evidence

AbstractThis article presents some theoretical and empirical approaches for identifying interactions among fundamental economic variables that determine housing prices. Using home equity conversion mortgage (HECM) loan‐level data, this study quantifies the major risks of reverse mortgages and shows that higher housing prices induce higher demand for reverse mortgages among elderly homeowners. Senior citizens rationally hold pessimistic expectations about future housing price appreciation and lock in their home‐equity gains by obtaining reverse mortgages, which in turn led to the substantial HECM growth prior to the financial crisis of 2008. A novel simulation also forecasts HECM loans under various economic scenarios. From a mortgage credit perspective, these findings generate several policy implications for the implementation of “HECM 3.0.”