LNG 추진선박 도입 전망에 관한 연구

Abstract

Purpose - This research aims to forecast the scale of LNG-fueled ships from 2020 to 2035 based on an economic performance analysis.
 Design/Methodology/Approach - This research compares the present value of costs for three alternatives (using low-sulfur fuel, installing scrubbers, and LNG-fueled ships). According to the two scenarios set in this study, the scale of LNG- fueled ship introduction was predicted from 2020 to 2035.
 Findings - The result showed that the proportion of LNG-fueled ships (based on DWT) will be 34.9% in 2035 by Scenario 1, and 20.1% in 2035 by Scenario 2. A one-year delay in global LNG bunkering infrastructure construction would reduce the introduction of LNG-fueled ships by about 2% in 2035. As a result of comparing the current situation with the results of this study, it was found to show a pattern similar to Scenario 2 assuming a pessimistic outlook.
 Research Implications - In order to activate the introduction of LNG-fueled ships, it is necessary to expand the LNG bunkering infrastructure, which is considered the most important factor hindering the introduction of LNG-fueled ships. Also, it would be a meaningful task to try forecasting considering the volume of goods transported. In addition, it would be interesting to evaluate the performance on climate change and the environment following the introduction of LNG-fueled ships.