Permafrost Extent Research Articles

Evolution of Arctic rivers recession flow: Global assessment and data-based attribution analysis

Due to polar amplification of climate change, high latitudes are warming up twice as fast as the rest of the world. This warming leads to permafrost thawing, which increases the thickness of the overlying active layer and modifies the subsurface hydrologic regime of the draining watershed, therefore affecting baseflow to surface water and modifying recession characteristics. The active layer thickening and the subsurface flow modification are assumed to be linearly correlated. The objective of this study is to test this assumption by quantifying the correlation between the temporal evolution of hydrologic parameters (recession slope and initial recession outflow) and 11 controlling factors (all linked to surface, subsurface and climatic conditions) for 336 Arctic catchments from 1970 to 2000. Contrary to previous studies, we demonstrate a clear decrease in recession slope and initial recession outflow over 1970–2000 for a majority of catchments at any significance level. We explain this result by identifying high topography and low permafrost extent as controlling factors that complexify the relationship between trends in recession parameters and active layer thickness evolution. The study goes further by identifying the mechanisms behind the complexification of the relationship: permafrost-extent loss, hydrologic-connectivity increase, flow-path-diversity increase, contributing drainage area multiplication. The novel aspect of the study lay behind the large number of studied catchments and the large range of controlling factors tested.

Abiotic factors affecting the bacterial and fungal diversity of permafrost in a rock glacier in the Stelvio Pass (Italian Central Alps)

The impact of climate change in the European Alps has been roughly twice the global average, dramatically reducing permafrost extent and thickening of its active layer. Therefore, the study of the abiotic factors (i.e. chemical/physical parameters) affecting the microbial diversity inhabiting Alpine permafrost appears to be of dramatic relevance. Within the European Alps, the Stelvio area exhibits these effects in a particularly evident way, with important consequences on microbial ecosystems. Therefore, microbial communities inhabiting a permafrost core collected in the Scorluzzo active rock glacier (Stelvio Pass, Italian Central Alps) were investigated along a depth gradient (410 to 524 cm from the surface). The taxonomic structures of bacterial and fungal communities were investigated via a next-generation sequencing (NGS) approach (Illumina MiSeq), targeting the bacterial V3-V4 regions of 16S rDNA and the fungal ITS2 region. Abiotic soil factors (grain size, electrical conductivity, ice/water content, pH, Loss-on-Ignition - LOI, total and organic carbon, nitrogen and phosphorous) were analysed. Richness and Shannon-H diversity indices were correlated to abiotic factors. Bacterial diversity was significantly (p < 0.05) correlated with LOI, while fungal diversity was significantly (p < 0.05) correlated with the depth gradient. The Constrained Analysis of Principal (CAP) coordinates were used to study the correlation between abiotic parameters and the taxonomic structure of bacterial and fungal communities. Among all tested variables, the depth gradient, water content, pH and LOI affected the taxonomic structure of bacterial communities (in particular, the abundance of bacterial amplicon sequence variants - ASVs - assigned to Afipia sp., Chloroflexi, Gaiella sp., Oryzihumus sp. and Serratia, sp.), while fungal communities (ASVs assigned to Naganishia sp., Rhodotorula sp., Sordariomycetes and Taphrinales) were affected by the depth gradient. Co-occurrences (calculated by Pearson correlation coefficient) among microbial taxa (i.e. bacteria vs bacteria, bacteria vs fungi, fungi vs fungi) were investigated: the prevalence of significant (p < 0.05) positive co-occurrences was found, suggesting that the coexistence of different microbial taxa could play a crucial role in maintaining the ecological and taxonomic balance of both bacterial and fungal communities inhabiting the Alpine permafrost ecosystem. These findings suggest that the bacterial and fungal diversity of Alpine permafrost are affected in different ways by some abiotic factors.

Streamflow Changes in the Headwater Area of Yellow River, NE Qinghai-Tibet Plateau during 1955–2040 and Their Implications

Human activities have substantially altered present-day flow regimes. The Headwater Area of the Yellow River (HAYR, above Huanghe’yan Hydrological Station, with a catchment area of 21,000 km2 and an areal extent of alpine permafrost at ~86%) on the northeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, Southwest China has been undergoing extensive changes in streamflow regimes and groundwater dynamics, permafrost degradation, and ecological deterioration under a warming climate. In general, hydrological gauges provide reliable flow records over many decades and these data are extremely valuable for assessment of changing rates and trends of streamflow. In 1998–2003, the damming of the Yellow River by the First Hydropower Station of the HAYR complicated the examination of the relations between hydroclimatic variables and streamflow dynamics. In this study, the monthly streamflow rate of the Yellow River at Huanghe’yan is reconstructed for the period of 1955–2019 using the double mass curve method, and then the streamflow at Huagnhe’yan is forecasted for the next 20 years (2020–2040) using the Elman neural network time-series method. The dam construction (1998–2000) has caused a reduction of annual streamflow by 53.5–68.4%, and a more substantial reduction of 71.8–94.4% in the drier years (2003–2005), in the HAYR. The recent removal of the First Hydropower Station of the HAYR dam (September 2018) has boosted annual streamflow by 123–210% (2018–2019). Post-correction trends of annual maximum (QMax) and minimum (QMin) streamflow rates and the ratio of the QMax/QMin of the Yellow River in the HAYR (0.18 and 0.03 m3·s−1·yr−1 and −0.04 yr−1, respectively), in comparison with those of precorrection values (−0.11 and −0.004 m3·s−1·yr−1 and 0.001 yr−1, respectively), have more truthfully revealed a relatively large hydrological impact of degrading permafrost. Based on the Elman neural network model predictions, over the next 20 years, the increasing trend of flow in the HAYR would generally accelerate at a rate of 0.42 m3·s−1·yr−1. Rising rates of spring (0.57 m3·s−1·yr−1) and autumn (0.18 m3·s−1·yr−1) discharge would see the benefits from an earlier snow-melt season and delayed arrival of winter conditions. This suggests a longer growing season, which indicates ameliorating phonology, soil nutrient availability, and hydrothermal environments for vegetation in the HAYR. These trends for hydrological and ecological changes in the HAYR may potentially improve ecological safety and water supplies security in the HAYR and downstream Yellow River basins.

Mapping the Vulnerability of Arctic Wetlands to Global Warming

AbstractWetlands provide multiple ecosystem services of local and global importance, but currently there exists no comprehensive, high‐quality wetland map for the Arctic region. Improved information about Arctic wetland extents and their vulnerability to climate change is essential for adaptation and mitigation efforts, including for indigenous people dependent on the ecosystem services that wetlands provide, as inadequate planning could result in dire consequences for societies and ecosystems alike. Synthesizing high‐resolution wetland databases and datasets on soil wetness and soil types from multiple sources, we created the first high‐resolution map with full coverage of Arctic wetlands. We assess the vulnerability of Arctic wetlands for the years 2050, 2075, and 2100, using datasets on permafrost extent, soil types, and projected mean annual air temperature from the HadGEM2‐ES climate model for three change scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). Our mapping shows that wetlands cover approximately 3.5 million km2 or roughly 25% of Arctic landmass and 99% of these wetlands are in permafrost areas, indicating considerable vulnerability to future climate change. Unless global warming is limited to scenario RCP2.6, robust results show that large areas of Arctic wetlands are vulnerable to ecosystem regime shifts. If scenario RCP8.5 becomes a reality, at least 50% of the Arctic wetland area would be highly vulnerable to regime shifts with considerable adverse impacts on human health, infrastructure, economics, ecosystems, and biodiversity. The developed wetland and vulnerability maps can aid planning and prioritization of the most vulnerable areas for protection and mitigation of change.

Quantifying Overestimated Permafrost Extent Driven by Rock Glacier Inventory

AbstractRock glaciers (RGs) are normally used as “ground‐truth” observations to indicate the presence of permafrost, and hence extensively used in training permafrost distribution models. However, the unique structure and composition of RGs enhance ground cooling effects, leading to more favorable conditions for permafrost presence than in adjacent ground. We therefore hypothesized and confirmed that permafrost extent is overestimated using RG‐driven models. The results indicate that the permafrost zonation index was overestimated by about 8.4%–13.1% in a model driven by RG observations compared to a model using in situ measurements of permafrost presence/absence. The bias is particularly pronounced in discontinuous permafrost region, where it is thought to be highly sensitive to climate change, resulting in about a 41.8%–90.8% overestimation in permafrost region and 7.0%–18.6% misclassification. In order to better use the large RG datasets available to understand permafrost conditions, we provide a method to correct this bias in a fundamental model.

Pan‐Arctic Riverine Dissolved Organic Matter: Synchronous Molecular Stability, Shifting Sources and Subsidies

AbstractClimate change is dramatically altering Arctic ecosystems, leading to shifts in the sources, composition, and eventual fate of riverine dissolved organic matter (DOM) in the Arctic Ocean. Here we examine a 6‐year DOM compositional record from the six major Arctic rivers using Fourier‐transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry paired with dissolved organic carbon isotope data (Δ14C, δ13C) to investigate how seasonality and permafrost influence DOM, and how DOM export may change with warming. Across the pan‐Arctic, DOM molecular composition demonstrates synchrony and stability. Spring freshet brings recently leached terrestrial DOM with a latent high‐energy and potentially bioavailable subsidy, reconciling the historical paradox between freshet DOM's terrestrial bulk signatures and high biolability. Winter features undiluted baseflow DOM sourced from old, microbially degraded groundwater DOM. A stable core Arctic riverine fingerprint (CARF) is present in all samples and may contribute to the potential carbon sink of persistent, aged DOM in the global ocean. Future warming may lead to shifting sources of DOM and export through: (1) flattening Arctic hydrographs and earlier melt modifying the timing and role of the spring high‐energy subsidy; (2) increasing groundwater discharge resulting in a greater fraction of DOM export to the ocean occurring as stable and aged molecules; and (3) increasing contribution of nitrogen/sulfur‐containing DOM from microbial degradation caused by increased connectivity between groundwater and surface waters due to permafrost thaw. Our findings suggest the ubiquitous CARF (which may contribute to oceanic carbon sequestration) underlies predictable variations in riverine DOM composition caused by seasonality and permafrost extent.

Climate Change, Cryosphere and Impacts in the Indian Himalayan Region

Climate change and related impacts over the Indian Himalayan Region (IHR) remains poorly quantified. The present study reviews observed and modelled changes in the climate, cryosphere and impacts related to hazards, agriculture and ecosystems. An increasing temperature trend over the IHR is reported, which over a few locations is found to be higher than the global average. For precipitation, a complex and inconsistent response with considerable variation in the sign and magnitude of change is observed. Future projections show significant warming. Climate-driven changes and impacts are clearly observed. Snow cover has declined since the 1960s, with an enhanced decreasing trend during the 1990s and variable trends since 2000. Glaciers are losing mass and retreating at varying rates since the early 20th century, with an exception over the Karakoram region. An observed heterogeneous response of glaciers to atmospheric warming is controlled by regional variations in topography, debris cover, circulation and precipitation. Initial assessments of permafrost extent of 1 million km2 across the IHR roughly translate into 14 times the glacier area. Extreme floods represent the most frequent natural disaster in the IHR. Studies have highlighted the significant threat from glacial lakes. Landslides occur in combination with heavy rainfall and flooding, with poor land-use practices such as road-cutting and deforestation being additional drivers. Climate change has also stressed traditional subsistence agriculture and food systems. Improving systematic and coordinated monitoring of climate and related impacts is crucial to contribute to effective climate change adaptation and response strategies.

Periglacial Lake Origin Influences the Likelihood of Lake Drainage in Northern Alaska

Nearly 25% of all lakes on earth are located at high latitudes. These lakes are formed by a combination of thermokarst, glacial, and geological processes. Evidence suggests that the origin of periglacial lake formation may be an important factor controlling the likelihood of lakes to drain. However, geospatial data regarding the spatial distribution of these dominant Arctic and subarctic lakes are limited or do not exist. Here, we use lake-specific morphological properties using the Arctic Digital Elevation Model (DEM) and Landsat imagery to develop a Thermokarst lake Settlement Index (TSI), which was used in combination with available geospatial datasets of glacier history and yedoma permafrost extent to classify Arctic and subarctic lakes into Thermokarst (non-yedoma), Yedoma, Glacial, and Maar lakes, respectively. This lake origin dataset was used to evaluate the influence of lake origin on drainage between 1985 and 2019 in northern Alaska. The lake origin map and lake drainage datasets were synthesized using five-year seamless Landsat ETM+ and OLI image composites. Nearly 35,000 lakes and their properties were characterized from Landsat mosaics using an object-based image analysis. Results indicate that the pattern of lake drainage varied by lake origin, and the proportion of lakes that completely drained (i.e., &gt;60% area loss) between 1985 and 2019 in Thermokarst (non-yedoma), Yedoma, Glacial, and Maar lakes were 12.1, 9.5, 8.7, and 0.0%, respectively. The lakes most vulnerable to draining were small thermokarst (non-yedoma) lakes (12.7%) and large yedoma lakes (12.5%), while the most resilient were large and medium-sized glacial lakes (4.9 and 4.1%) and Maar lakes (0.0%). This analysis provides a simple remote sensing approach to estimate the spatial distribution of dominant lake origins across variable physiography and surficial geology, useful for discriminating between vulnerable versus resilient Arctic and subarctic lakes that are likely to change in warmer and wetter climates.

Ground‐penetrating radar, electromagnetic induction, terrain, and vegetation observations coupled with machine learning to map permafrost distribution at Twelvemile Lake, Alaska

AbstractWe collected ground‐penetrating radar (GPR) and frequency‐domain electromagnetic induction (FDEM) profiles in 2011 and 2012 to identify the extent of permafrost relative to surface biomass and solar insolation around Twelvemile Lake near Fort Yukon, Alaska. We compared a Landsat‐derived biomass estimate and modeled solar insolation from a digital elevation model to the geophysical measurements. We show correspondence between vegetation type and biomass relative to permafrost extent and seasonal freeze–thaw. Thicker permafrost (≥25 m) was covered by greater biomass, and seasonal thaw depths in these regions were minimal (1 m). Shallow (1–3 m depth) and thin (20–50 cm) newly forming permafrost or frozen layers from the previous winter occurred below northward oriented slopes with thin biomass cover. South‐facing slopes exhibited permafrost when there was enough biomass to shield incoming solar energy. We developed an artificial neural network to predict permafrost extent across the broader region by mapping GPR‐observed instances of permafrost to FDEM, biomass, and terrain observations with 90.2% accuracy. We identified a strong linear correlation (r = −0.77) between permafrost probability and seasonal thaw depth, indicating that our models may also be used to explore thaw patterns and variability in active layer thickness. This study highlights the combined influence of biomass and terrain on the presence of permafrost and the value of evaluating such parameters via remote sensing to predict permafrost spatial or temporal variability. Incorporating diverse geophysical datasets with in‐situ validation into machine learning models demonstrates a useful approach to upscale estimated permafrost extent across large Arctic expanses.

Permafrost Promotes Shallow Groundwater Flow and Warmer Headwater Streams

AbstractThe presence of permafrost influences the flow paths of water through Arctic landscapes and thereby has the potential to impact stream discharge and thermal regimes. Observations from 11 headwater streams in Alaska showed that July water temperatures were higher in catchments with more near‐surface permafrost. We apply a fully coupled cryohydrology model to investigate if the impact of permafrost on flow path depth could cause the same pattern in temperatures of groundwater discharging from hillslopes to streams. The model simulates surface energy and water balances, snow, and subsurface water and energy balances for two‐dimensional hillslope model cases with varying permafrost extent. We find that hillslopes with continuous permafrost have more shallow flow paths and twice as high rates of evapotranspiration, compared to hillslopes with no permafrost. For our simulated cases, 6.7% of the horizontal water flux moves through the top organic soil layers when there is continuous permafrost, while only 0.5% moves through organic layers without permafrost. The deeper flow paths in permafrost‐free simulations buffer seasonal temperature extremes, so that summer groundwater discharge temperatures are highest with continuous permafrost. Our results suggest that permafrost thawing alters groundwater flow paths and can lead to decreases in summer stream temperatures and reductions in evapotranspiration in headwater catchments. These changes are of potential importance for stream biotic components of ecosystems, however, the full impact remains unknown.

Population living on permafrost in the Arctic

Permafrost thaw is a challenge in many Arctic regions, one that modifies ecosystems and affects infrastructure and livelihoods. To date, there have been no demographic studies of the population on permafrost. We present the first estimates of the number of inhabitants on permafrost in the Arctic Circumpolar Permafrost Region (ACPR) and project changes as a result of permafrost thaw. We combine current and projected populations at settlement level with permafrost extent. Key findings indicate that there are 1162 permafrost settlements in the ACPR, accommodating 5 million inhabitants, of whom 1 million live along a coast. Climate-driven permafrost projections suggest that by 2050, 42% of the permafrost settlements will become permafrost-free due to thawing. Among the settlements remaining on permafrost, 42% are in high hazard zones, where the consequences of permafrost thaw will be most severe. In total, 3.3 million people in the ACPR live currently in settlements where permafrost will degrade and ultimately disappear by 2050.

Coupling of the CAS‐LSM Land‐Surface Model With the CAS‐FGOALS‐g3 Climate System Model

AbstractThe land‐surface model of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS‐LSM), which includes lateral flow, water use, nitrogen discharge and river transport, soil freeze‐thaw front dynamics, and urban planning, was implemented in the Flexible Global Ocean‐Atmosphere‐Land System model, grid‐point version 3 (CAS‐FGOALS‐g3) to investigate the climatic effects of eco‐hydrological processes and human activities. Simulations were conducted using the land‐atmospheric component setup of CAS‐FGOALS‐g3 with given sea‐surface temperatures and sea‐ice distributions to assess its new capabilities. It was shown that anthropogenic groundwater use led to increased latent heat flux of about 20 W∙m−2 in three groundwater overexploitation areas: North India, northern China, and central United States. The groundwater lateral flow accompanied by this exploitation has led to deepening water table depth in these regions. The derived permafrost extent from the soil freeze‐thaw front (FTF) was comparable to observations, and the inclusion of FTF dynamics enabled simulations of seasonal variations in freeze‐thaw processes and related eco‐hydrological effects. Inclusion of riverine nitrogen transport and its joint implementation with the human activity scheme showed large dissolved inorganic nitrogen concentrations in major rivers around the globe, including western Europe, eastern China, and the U.S. Midwest, which were affected by nitrogen retention and surface water use during transport. The results suggest that the model is a useful tool for studying the effects of land‐surface processes on global climate, especially those influenced by human interventions.

Quaternary Permafrost in China: Framework and Discussions

The framework of Quaternary permafrost in China was reconstructed for the first time on the basis of available periglacial, glacial, and other proxies. During the Early Pleistocene (2.68–0.80 Ma BP), permafrost advanced southwards to 47–50° N in northern China and possibly occurred in alpine regions in western China. During the Middle Pleistocene (800–130 ka BP), permafrost occurred extensively on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) and in alpine or mountainous regions of northern, western, central, and northeastern China. The Great Interglacial occurred afterward and before the Last Glaciation, but the evidence of permafrost for this period has been seldom found. Permafrost evolution of the Last Glaciation (72–19 ka BP) in China is divided into: Expansion (72~50 ka BP), degradation (50–26 ka BP), and intensive expansion during the Last Permafrost Maximum (LPMax, 26–19 ka BP) with a permafrost extent of 5.3 × 106~5.4 × 106 km2, and when major features of present permafrost took shape. Permafrost fluctuated during the Younger Dryas (12.9–11.7 ka BP). Since the Holocene, permafrost in China expanded and retreated to lesser extents, forming the current permafrost environment. The Holocene evolution of permafrost was divided into: Unstable climate but stable permafrost during the early Holocene (11.7~8.5–7.0 ka BP); permafrost degradation during the Last Permafrost Minimum (LPMin, or the Holocene Megathermal; 8.5–7.0~4.0–3.0 ka BP) and the Medieval Warm Period (MWP; 1.0~0.5 ka BP); permafrost expansion during the Neoglaciation (4.0–3.0~1.0 ka BP) and the Little Ice Age (LIA; 0.5~0.1 ka BP); and recent permafrost degradation (20th century to the present). However, this review paper only provides the framework of Quaternary permafrost in China and some preliminary discussions. Many key questions await further investigations.

Evaluating permafrost physics in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) models and their sensitivity to climate change

Abstract. Permafrost is a ubiquitous phenomenon in the Arctic. Its future evolution is likely to control changes in northern high-latitude hydrology and biogeochemistry. Here we evaluate the permafrost dynamics in the global models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (present generation – CMIP6; previous generation – CMIP5) along with the sensitivity of permafrost to climate change. Whilst the northern high-latitude air temperatures are relatively well simulated by the climate models, they do introduce a bias into any subsequent model estimate of permafrost. Therefore evaluation metrics are defined in relation to the air temperature. This paper shows that the climate, snow and permafrost physics of the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble is very similar to that of the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble. The main differences are that a small number of models have demonstrably better snow insulation in CMIP6 than in CMIP5 and a small number have a deeper soil profile. These changes lead to a small overall improvement in the representation of the permafrost extent. There is little improvement in the simulation of maximum summer thaw depth between CMIP5 and CMIP6. We suggest that more models should include a better-resolved and deeper soil profile as a first step towards addressing this. We use the annual mean thawed volume of the top 2 m of the soil defined from the model soil profiles for the permafrost region to quantify changes in permafrost dynamics. The CMIP6 models project that the annual mean frozen volume in the top 2 m of the soil could decrease by 10 %–40 %∘C-1 of global mean surface air temperature increase.

A Semianalytical Interface Model of Soil Freeze/Thaw and Permafrost Evolution

AbstractA physically based one‐dimensional sharp‐interface model of active layer evolution and permafrost thaw is presented. This computationally efficient, semianalytical, nonequilibrium solution to soil freeze‐thaw problems in partially saturated media is proposed as a component of hydrological models to describe seasonal ground ice, active layer evolution, and changes in permafrost temperature and extent. The model is developed and validated against the analytical Stefan solution and a finite volume coupled heat and mass transfer model of freeze‐thaw in unsaturated porous media. Unlike analytic models, the interface model provides a nonequilibrium solution to the heat equation while permitting a wide range of temporally variable boundary conditions and supporting the simulation of multiple interfaces between frozen and unfrozen soils. The model is implemented for use in discontinuous permafrost peatlands where soil properties are highly dependent on soil ice content and infiltration capacity is high. It is demonstrated that the model is suitable for the representation of variably saturated active layer and permafrost evolution in cases both with and without a talik.

Modeling Present and Future Permafrost Distribution at the Seward Peninsula, Alaska

AbstractPermafrost, a key component of Arctic ecosystems, is currently affected by climate warming and anticipated to undergo further significant changes in this century. The most pronounced changes are expected to occur in the transition zone between the discontinuous and continuous types of permafrost. We apply a transient temperature dynamic model to investigate the spatiotemporal evolution of permafrost conditions on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska—a region currently characterized by continuous permafrost in its northern part and discontinuous permafrost in the south. We calibrate model parameters using a variational data assimilation technique exploiting historical ground temperature measurements collected across the study area. The model is then evaluated with a separate control set of the ground temperature data. Calibrated model parameters are distributed across the domain according to ecosystem types. The forcing applied to our model consists of historic monthly temperature and precipitation data and climate projections based on the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. Simulated near‐surface permafrost extent for the 2000–2010 decade agrees well with existing permafrost maps and previous Alaska‐wide modeling studies. Future projections suggest a significant increase (3.0°C under RCP 4.5 and 4.4°C under RCP 8.5 at the 2 m depth) in mean decadal ground temperature on average for the peninsula for the 2090–2100 decade when compared to the period of 2000–2010. Widespread degradation of the near‐surface permafrost is projected to reduce its extent at the end of the 21st century to only 43% of the peninsula's area under RCP 4.5 and 8% under RCP 8.5.

Historical Northern Hemisphere snow cover trends and projected changes in the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble

Abstract. This paper presents an analysis of observed and simulated historical snow cover extent and snow mass, along with future snow cover projections from models participating in the World Climate Research Programme Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Where appropriate, the CMIP6 output is compared to CMIP5 results in order to assess progress (or absence thereof) between successive model generations. An ensemble of six observation-based products is used to produce a new time series of historical Northern Hemisphere snow extent anomalies and trends; a subset of four of these products is used for snow mass. Trends in snow extent over 1981–2018 are negative in all months and exceed -50×103 km2 yr−1 during November, December, March, and May. Snow mass trends are approximately −5 Gt yr−1 or more for all months from December to May. Overall, the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble better represents the snow extent climatology over the 1981–2014 period for all months, correcting a low bias in CMIP5. Simulated snow extent and snow mass trends over the 1981–2014 period are stronger in CMIP6 than in CMIP5, although large inter-model spread remains in the simulated trends for both variables. There is a single linear relationship between projected spring snow extent and global surface air temperature (GSAT) changes, which is valid across all CMIP6 Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. This finding suggests that Northern Hemisphere spring snow extent will decrease by about 8 % relative to the 1995–2014 level per degree Celsius of GSAT increase. The sensitivity of snow to temperature forcing largely explains the absence of any climate change pathway dependency, similar to other fast-response components of the cryosphere such as sea ice and near-surface permafrost extent.

Changes in the Seasonally Frozen Ground Over the Eastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in the Past 60 Years

The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) has the largest extent of high altitude permafrost at the middle and low latitudes in northern hemisphere and is surrounded by dozens of seasonally frozen ground. Rising air temperatures have resulted in frozen ground degradation over QTP since the last century. Based on the daily frozen soil depth, annual mean daily minimum air temperatures and annual mean air temperatures obtained from 19in-situobservations over QTP, the changes in the thickness, temporal and spatial distributions of frozen ground, as well as the associated attributions, are analyzed for the period of 1960-2019. The results show that the maximum depth of frost penetration, the beginning time of soil freezing and the ending time of soil thawing have changed considerably. On average, the maximum depth of frost penetration (MDFP) has reduced by 0.14 similar to 1.71 m at most stations. The annual frozen period has decreased by about 40 days. The changes in seasonal freezing of soils appear to be attributed to the rising of minimum air temperatures in winter, especially at the higher elevations range from 4500 to 5000 m.

Historical Simulations With HadGEM3‐GC3.1 for CMIP6

AbstractWe describe and evaluate historical simulations which use the third Hadley Centre Global Environment Model in the Global Coupled configuration 3.1 (HadGEM3‐GC3.1) and which form part of the UK's contribution to the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, CMIP6. These simulations, run at two resolutions, respond to historically evolving forcings such as greenhouse gases, aerosols, solar irradiance, volcanic aerosols, land use, and ozone concentrations. We assess the response of the simulations to these historical forcings and compare against the observational record. This includes the evolution of global mean surface temperature, ocean heat content, sea ice extent, ice sheet mass balance, permafrost extent, snow cover, North Atlantic sea surface temperature and circulation, and decadal precipitation. We find that the simulated time evolution of global mean surface temperature broadly follows the observed record but with important quantitative differences which we find are most likely attributable to strong effective radiative forcing from anthropogenic aerosols and a weak pattern of sea surface temperature response in the low to middle latitudes to volcanic eruptions. We also find evidence that anthropogenic aerosol forcings play a role in driving the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, which are key features of the North Atlantic ocean. Overall, the model historical simulations show many features in common with the observed record over the period 1850–2014 and so provide a basis for future in‐depth study of recent climate change.

Landscape matters: Predicting the biogeochemical effects of permafrost thaw on aquatic networks with a state factor approach

AbstractPermafrost thaw has been widely observed to alter the biogeochemistry of recipient aquatic ecosystems. However, research from various regions has shown considerable variation in effect. In this paper, we propose a state factor approach to predict the release and transport of materials from permafrost through aquatic networks. Inspired by Hans Jenny's seminal description of soil‐forming factors, and based on the growing body of research on the subject, we propose that a series of state factors—including relief, ice content, permafrost extent, and parent material—will constrain and direct the biogeochemical effect of thaw over time. We explore state‐factor‐driven variation in thaw response using a series of case studies from diverse regions of the permafrost‐affected north, and also describe unique scaling considerations related to the mobile and integrative nature of aquatic networks. While our cross‐system review found coherent responses to thaw for some biogeochemical constituents, such as nutrients, others, such as dissolved organics and particles, were much more variable in their response. We suggest that targeted, hypothesis‐driven investigation of the effects of state factor variation will bolster our ability to predict the biogeochemical effects of thaw across diverse and rapidly changing northern landscapes.