Abstract
Permafrost thaw is a challenge in many Arctic regions, one that modifies ecosystems and affects infrastructure and livelihoods. To date, there have been no demographic studies of the population on permafrost. We present the first estimates of the number of inhabitants on permafrost in the Arctic Circumpolar Permafrost Region (ACPR) and project changes as a result of permafrost thaw. We combine current and projected populations at settlement level with permafrost extent. Key findings indicate that there are 1162 permafrost settlements in the ACPR, accommodating 5 million inhabitants, of whom 1 million live along a coast. Climate-driven permafrost projections suggest that by 2050, 42% of the permafrost settlements will become permafrost-free due to thawing. Among the settlements remaining on permafrost, 42% are in high hazard zones, where the consequences of permafrost thaw will be most severe. In total, 3.3 million people in the ACPR live currently in settlements where permafrost will degrade and ultimately disappear by 2050.
Highlights
IntroductionThe unprecedented rise in air surface temperature observed in the Arctic causes dramatic changes on the components of the cryosphere, including permafrost
The unprecedented rise in air surface temperature observed in the Arctic causes dramatic changes on the components of the cryosphere, including permafrost.Nordregio, Stockholm, Sweden 2 Institute for Natural Resources and Geosciences, Copenhagen University, Copenhagen, Denmark 3 Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway 4 Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam, Germany 5 Department for Earth Sciences, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, GermanyPopulation and Environment (2021) 43:22–38Permafrost is ground that remains at or below 0 °C for at least two consecutive years (Van Everdingen 2005)
The majority of the settlements in the Russian Arctic were located on continuous permafrost, while most of the permafrost settlements in the Fennoscandian Arctic were located in zones of sporadic permafrost (Appendix Table 5)
Summary
The unprecedented rise in air surface temperature observed in the Arctic causes dramatic changes on the components of the cryosphere, including permafrost. Over the last two decades, Arctic surface air temperature has increased by more than double the global average. Near-surface permafrost in the Arctic has warmed by more than 0.5 °C between 2009 and 2017 (Biskaborn et al 2019), triggering permafrost thaw. This thaw causes changes in the ecosystems on which Arctic inhabitants are directly dependent. The impacts of permafrost thaw in the Arctic are becoming more visible, leading to increased scientific, economic, and political attention. While people in the Arctic are adaptable to climatic variability, financial, institutional, and knowledge constraints are limiting their adaptive capacity (Ford et al 2010)
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