Planning Period Research Articles

Mineral and bioresource exploitation for transformation and sustainability of the chemical industry in Zambia

Zambia depends mainly on copper mining and imports the bulk of chemicals needed for academic, domestic, and industrial consumption. The country has never had an economically viable chemical industry despite having vast minerals and bioresources key to the stimulation of a sustainable chemical industry. This paper proposes a theory of change model for the establishment of the chemical industry in Zambia to enhance economic growth. Availability of minerals and bioresources have been assumed as a strong driver to establish an economically viable chemical industry in Zambia. The paper discusses the economic status of Zambia, explains current economic drivers and proposes establishment of a chemical industry as a critical missing link to transform the economy. Briefly a thorough literature desk review was done with cue search words such as “Chemistry professionals Zambia”, “Policy Chemicals industry Zambia”, “Chemical industry Zambia”, “National Development Plan Zambia”, “Petrochemicals Zambia”, “Specialty chemicals Zambia”, “Gross Domestic product Zambia” in the Google scholar search engine. Results revealed that exclusion of chemical industry in policy formulation and implementation, lack of political will in promoting chemistry, underutilization of available mineral and bioresources remains part of the main reason for lack of growth of the chemical industry and serial failure of the seven national development plans to adequately plan for this since independence in 1964. The period from 1961 to 2021 was considered and the 2006 to 2021 comprising the fifth, sixth and seventh national development plans was isolated, and analysis of variance done for the three plans with respect to gross domestic product (GDP) and GDP per capita. There was a statistical significance for both parameters. A p = 0.0004 for GDP and 0.0003 for GDP per capita values showed that there was negative or almost no growth within each period of the national development plan. None of the seven development plans addressed a deliberate setting up of the chemical industry to reduce capital flight in terms of huge imports. Hence, we opine that the chemical industry in Zambia is desperately needed to provide agrochemicals and other specialty chemical feedstocks.

Technological development of timber enterprises: equipment replacement mechanism

The paper presents the results of a study of certain aspects of the technological development of timber enterprises. The main attention is paid to the equipment replacement mechanism at these enterprises. The solution is to determine the optimal policy for its replacement or preservation within the planning period. The dynamic programming apparatus can be one of the tools. The paper presents the main features of its use. An example of its approbation on the basis of one of the timber enterprises of the Krasnoyarsk Krai is also given. The results obtained testified in favor of its use in practice. At the moment, the enterprise that acted as the object of approbation is implementing the development into its management policy. It was revealed that, depending on the specifics and characteristics of the enterprise, the profit from the use of author’s developments can be from 10 to 25%. The hypothesis that the use of mathematical tools to determine the policy of forest industry enterprises in terms of equipment replacement can significantly increase their economic efficiency has been fully confirmed.

Regional Planning and Infrastructure Development of Gorakhpur City

GIS based master plan is one of the sub - plans under AMRUT Mission. Master Plan is the main method for urban land management, which reflects detailed land use allocation for the sustainable development of the city. The use of GIS helps in bringing accuracy in master planning as the base map is prepared from very highresolution satellite (VHRS) images. Master planning provides the framework that helps in the systematic development of a city. The scheme provides adequate infrastructure to meet future demand. It also provides a well-planned financial structure for urban areas which helps for effective administration in the urban development sector. It also helps in resolving the issues faced by the public as well as the administration of the development authorities. Gorakhpur is a city of Uttar Pradesh which requires master planning for proper development of the city. The city has so far had two master plans, which were prepared for the time period 1971-2001 and 2001-2021. Since the period of the city master plan is about to end, the city needs a new master plan. The present paper tries to focus on regional planning and infrastructure development of Gorakhpur city. Key-words: Regional Planning; Master plan; Policy formulation.

Project Delivery Models: Experiences from the Queensferry Project

Project delivery model impacts the results of the projects regardless the type. This paper discusses about the elements of a project delivery models used in Queensferry Crossing project and how such elements impacted the project in the planning, design, and construction phases in terms cost, quality, and time. This project is considered as one of the successful projects as the project was delivered on time, under the estimated budget with high quality of performance. This paper has investigated and documented the main reasons why the project was a successful in terms of cost, quality, and time. For gathering data, several ways have been followed such as literature study, document study interviews with two highly involved person from the project, workshops with the project team and the Queensferry Crossing site visit. This paper discusses four project delivery model elements to investigate the case project. Organization form has been studied to know the organization of the project was structured, Project structure has been studied to know how the project has been planned from the initiation to the completion and the Procurement been studied to learn more about the procurement process throughout the planning, design, and construction period. Lastly, the Agreement format of the project that has also been studied to know how different contracts has been used in the project. This paper also discusses lessons learned from the project. This study calls for future research on project delivery models and generate a big question whether the project delivery models should be situational or fixed for all projects which means once a project leads to success should the organization continue that model to the other projects too or not.

Inter-provincial factors decomposition and decoupling analysis of generalized agricultural carbon emissions in China

China, a country with a long-standing agricultural legacy, is increasingly prioritizing the reduction of CO2 emissions from its agricultural sector. Initially, the carbon emission sources within the agricultural sector are classified into two categories: direct and indirect emissions. Using this classification, the study calculates the generalized agricultural carbon emissions (GACEs) of 30 provinces in China between 2011 and 2020. To further understand the factors influencing GACEs, the paper employs the logarithmic mean Divisia index method and Tapio decoupling index to analyze seven key factors. These factors include carbon emission intensity, energy consumption of generalized agriculture, and economic benefit level of energy consumption. By comparing the impact and changes of GACEs during the 12th and 13th five-year plan periods, the study reveals valuable insights. The findings suggest that carbon emission intensity plays a crucial role in suppressing GACEs, while the level of economic development acts as a catalyst for their increase. By effectively managing these influencing factors, the paper proposes that the increase in GACEs can be effectively suppressed, and the achievement of agricultural CO2 reduction goals can be expedited.

Modern approach in railcar fleet management

The operation of railway transportation has a number of peculiarities. The transfer of the railcar fleet to the ownership of operating companies has obviously led to changes in the management of railway transportation. The analysis of the total freight turnover and the number of managed railcars shows that 20 largest railcar fleet operators are market leaders. Despite a number of advantages, the ownership of rolling stock by private companies causes a number of problems, the most acute of which are surplus and deficit of the railcar fleet, accumulation of “abandoned” trains. Such problems are especially evident in the logistics chains of international transportation corridors. In this regard, it is advisable to analyze the controlling actions of all participants of the transportation process, to assess the degree of participation of each operator. Solving the problems of railcar fleet management using the restrictions of pulling cars on the main infrastructure tracks with seeming advantages leads to the increasing railcar turnover and, as a consequence, the growth of the operating railcar fleet, i. e. potential surplus. Regulation of the railcar fleet should be carried out using the system of technical standardization. However, the system itself is subject to revision, especially with regard to the planning period by reducing the latter. Increasing the dynamics of regulation will make it possible to meet the transportation needs in time, avoid accumulation of “abandoned” trains, specify the operating car fleet managed by companies - operators and bring railway transportation closer to the logistic principles of freight delivery. For this purpose, it is expedient to study in detail the technology of interaction of all railway transportation participants, especially including them in multimodal transport corridors.

Effectiveness of using BIM in construction: comparative analysis and evaluation methodology

The paper focuses on investigating methods to improve the integration of Building Information Modeling (BIM) in the construction sector with the aim of enhancing the efficiency of executing investment and construction projects. The relevance is caused by the complexity of calculating the economic effect in the short-term planning period when implementing investment and construction projects using BIM and, accordingly, the lack of methods for economic justification of the need and possibility of using BIM at the design and construction stages. The study aims to compare modern software products and establish a methodology for evaluating the effectiveness of utilizing BIM in investment and construction projects (ICP). This methodology will facilitate conducting an economic analysis to justify the integration of these technologies in project implementation. The study concluded with an examination of global implementation practices, identification of challenges in BIM utilization, a survey of software alternatives, and an assessment of current approaches for economically justifying the adoption of BIM throughout various stages of the ICP life cycle. The research is based on systemic, process and situational approaches, methods of comparative and factor analysis, as well as methods of economic-mathematical and graphical modeling.

СТРАТЕГИЯ «ЗЕЛЕНОЙ» РЕИНДУСТРИАЛИЗАЦИИ: УПРАВЛЕНЧЕСКИЕ И ФИНАНСОВЫЕ АСПЕКТЫ

The article discusses the arguments related to the financial features of managing "green" industrial reindustrialization. The stages of evolution of business models of industrial enterprises within the framework of transition to sustainable development and technological sovereignty of the Russian Federation are described. The concept of "green" industry is interpreted, and its essential characteristics are revealed. The dynamics of changes in the eco-investment index values is presented and the forecast of the use of energy efficiency technologies in certain sectors of the Russian industry in the period 2021-2023 is presented. The paper discusses the results of the implementation of "green" renewable energy projects and the introduction of industrial eco-technologies by Russian oil and gas companies in the context of Russia's adoption of the updated Climate Doctrine. The article offers an interpretation of the volume of budget allocations for decarbonization, the development of alternative energy sources and the transition to a closed-loop economy in the draft Federal Budget of the Russian Federation for 2024 and the planning period 2025-2026 in the context of state programs and federal projects. The main directions of industrial policy within the development of the strategic scenario for the "green" reindustrialization of the Russian economy are proposed.

МЕТОДИ АНАЛІЗУ ЧАСОВИХ РЯДІВ В КОНТЕКСТІ ПРОГНОЗУВАННЯ ВАЛЮТНОГО КУРСУ

The proposed article is devoted to forecasting the exchange rate using time series analysis methods. This study was conducted in 2 stages. At the first stage, the theoretical basis for forecasting the exchange rate based on the views of scientists of the post-Keynesian economic school was considered. Representatives of this school developed the Quarterly Projection Model, which is used for small open economies with a floating exchange rate and inflation targeting. In the Quarterly Projection Model, the factors affecting the formation of the exchange rate are considered. Such factors are GDP growth, the state of the balance of payments, NBU FX interventions, and the inflation rate. We separately investigated the impact of these factors on the exchange rate of the USD/UAH currency pair. For example, changes in GDP can directly affect the relative value of the hryvnia. The Key Policy Rate is a key instrument of the NBU's monetary policy. An increase in the Key Policy Rate can strengthen the hryvnia, while its decrease can lead to its weakening. Another factor affecting the exchange rate is the current account of the balance of payments. A small imbalance of this indicator (2–5% of GDP) is considered a standard phenomenon for many countries. An excessive current account deficit increases the risk of devaluation of the national currency. High inflation forces hryvnia holders to abandon it and switch to other liquid means of preserving real wealth, such as foreign currency. Therefore, a rather strong, rapid and constant increase in prices becomes the reason for a significant increase in the exchange rate. It is worth noting that the influence of these indicators occurs with a significant time lag. We used the Granger causality test to empirically analyze the causal relationships between the exchange rate and influencing factors. Empirical analysis has shown that the volume of NBU interventions, the balance of payments and the Key Policy Rate are significant and influential factors in the formation of the exchange rate in Ukraine. At the second stage, exchange rate forecasting was carried out using the vector autoregression (VAR) model. The application of the VAR model made it possible to investigate the complex interrelationships between economic indicators. Also, this model made it possible to take into account time lags and exogenous variables. The obtained results indicate the high adequacy of the vector autoregression (VAR) model in forecasting the exchange rate in the short- and medium-term planning periods.

Probabilistic Planning for an Energy Storage System Considering the Uncertainties in Smart Distribution Networks

Today, many countries are focused on smart grids due to their positive effects on all sectors of a power system, including those of operators, utilities, and consumers. Furthermore, the usage of renewable energy sources for power production is quickly expanding due to the depletion of fossil fuels and the emissions caused by their use. Additionally, intermittent power generation from renewable energy sources, such as wind and solar, necessitates the use of energy storage devices with which to ensure a continuous power supply to meet demand. This can be accomplished by employing an appropriate storage device with a sufficient storage capacity, thus enabling a grid-connected solar PV and wind system to have enhanced performance and to reduce adverse effects on the power quality of the grid. In this study, a probabilistic planning model that takes the intermittent natures of solar irradiances, wind speeds, and system demands into account is introduced. A novel criterion is also adopted to map the three-dimensional spaces of intermittency with the proposed model for optimizing BESS charging/discharging decisions. This planning model is intended to minimize the economic costs of investment and operation of a battery energy storage system (BESS) for a planning period. Moreover, the substation and feeder upgrade costs, as well as the overall system loss costs, are included in the proposed model. Particle swarm optimization (PSO) is utilized to find the optimal sizing, location, and operation of energy storage systems. The proposed methodology was validated using a 69-bus distribution system.

The Pathway to NDC and Carbon Neutrality: Roles of Optimum Degree between Marginal Abatement Cost and Social Cost of Carbon in the Thai Power and Industrial Sector

Thailand has formulated its climate change policy and updated the relevant plans and policies to align with the goal of achieving carbon neutrality and net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This study investigated the optimal level of GHG mitigation in Thailand by taking into account the marginal abatement cost (MAC) and social cost of carbon (SCC). The research also evaluated how energy efficiency and renewable energy technologies could influence GHG reduction in the power and industrial sectors and illustrate policy recommendations that could be aligned with the 2020–2050 policy and plan period. The findings indicated that there could be instances where GHG mitigation potential would be insufficient to reach the national milestone. In such cases, it would become imperative to leverage all technologies within the marginal abatement cost curve (MACC) and also utilize the SCC for policy decision-making and meeting the desired goals. In certain scenarios, the adoption of additional technologies or measures would be necessary, such as flexible power generation and deploying carbon capture and storage or hydrogen, which are high-cost technologies. Furthermore, preparations should be made for multiple levels of climate change policies and plans beyond 2030.

UNDERSTANDING THE NEW NIH DATA SHARING REQUIREMENTS: WHY THEY IMPROVE THE QUALITY OF RESEARCH

Abstract In 2021, NIH began a long period of planning, drafting, and requesting public comment to create a new data-sharing policy, beginning with a Request For Information (RFI). The new policy, beginning January 25, 2023, will apply broadly to all scientific data produced with NIH funding. NACDA and (ICPSR), drawing upon our expertise and understanding of best practices for data sharing, have been working actively to develop tools and resources to assist NIH grant recipients in complying with federal data-sharing expectations with minimal disruptions to their research. This presentation will provide a detailed overview of the new data-sharing requirements and how to incorporate them into the required data-sharing plan. We will offer examples of successful data-sharing plans, identifying an appropriate repository, budgeting for the data preparation process, and creating informed consent documents consistent with the spirit of the NIH Data Sharing requirements. In addition to explaining the new data-sharing policy, the presentation will discuss the rationale behind the requirements and how they contribute to data equity using the FAIR principles. By increasing access to federally funded data, we contribute to a multidisciplinary approach that enhances cross-disciplinary communication and a broad understanding of different ways of knowing when working collaboratively with other researchers. Team Science has facilitated substantive discourse between qualitative and quantitative specialists. Multidisciplinary research increasingly represents a critical aspect of overall knowledge creation. Finally, the presentation will illustrate how data-sharing increases the impact of studies and enhances the credentials of researchers who engage in data-sharing.

A data-driven, scenario-based human evacuation model for passenger ships addressing hybrid uncertainty

In a disaster at sea, the safe and timely removal of passengers from the ship is paramount. Here, a human evacuation plan enables passengers to be swiftly displaced from a risk area to one less so. Despite existing research on evacuation planning, there is a need for a more comprehensive model that considers various uncertainties and factors. This paper proposes an optimization evacuation model that balances uncertain variables, including passenger walking speed and travel distance, and deterministic factors like deck layout, door capacity, initial density, and corridor traffic flow. The model also accounts for varying starting locations and two levels of awareness—alert and non-alert. The model utilizes a data-driven technique, i.e., the k-means algorithm, to cluster historical data on speeds and generate scenarios. An adjustment scheme is applied to account for the ship's rolling motion, affecting passenger speeds during the evacuation planning period. Travel distance scenarios are produced to capture the impact of different route choices per passenger. A risk-neutral two-stage programming model is constructed to handle uncertainties. The model is tested on multiple problems for a passenger ship deck in day and night modes, revealing valuable managerial insights for the maritime safety sector.

The optimal momentum of population growth and decline

About 50 years ago, Keyfitz (1971) asked how much further a growing human population would increase if its fertility rate were immediately to be reduced to replacement level and remain there forever. The reason for demographic momentum is an age–structure inertia due to relatively many potential parents because of past high fertility. Although nobody expects such a miraculous reduction in reproductive behavior, a gradual decline in fertility in rapidly growing populations seems inevitable. As any delay in fertility decline to a stationary level leads to an increase in the momentum, it makes sense to think about the timing and the quantum of the reduction in reproduction. More specifically, we consider an intertemporal trade-off between costly pro- and anti-natalistic measures and the demographic momentum at the end of the planning period. This paper uses the McKendrick–von Foerster partial differential equation of age–structured population dynamics to study a sketched problem in a distributed parameter control framework. Among the results obtained by applying an appropriate extension of Pontryagin’s Maximum Principle are the following: (i) monotony of adaptation efforts to net reproduction rate and convex decrease/concave increase (if initial net reproduction rate exceeds 1/is below 1); and (ii) oscillating efforts and reproduction rate if, additionally, the size of the total population does not deviate from a fixed level.

THE OPPORTUNITIES OFFERED BY THE COMMON AGRICULTURAL POLICY IN THE USE OF TECHNOLOGIES IN THE PRODUCTION PROCESS OF THE FARMS “MEŽROZE”

Cereal cultivation is an important branch of crop production and many farms are specialized in this field. In the planning period of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) 2023-2027. much attention has been paid to the sustainability of agriculture. That is why farms should look for new technologies and solutions to treat the soil more gently apply plant protection products and fertilizers more precisely.

1996-2018 Yılları Arasında Orman Ekosistemi Fonksiyonlarındaki Mekansal-Zamansal Değişimlerin Karşılaştırılması: Türkiye'den Bir Örnek Çalışma

The objective of this study was to determine the temporal changes in forest ecosystem values (economic, ecological, and socio-cultural functions) for the 1996, 2009 and 2018 planning periods. For this purpose, forest management plans and forest cover type maps were used to reveal the changes in forest ecosystem values for the planning periods. Temporal changes in forest ecosystem functions were discussed in terms of economic, ecological and socio-cultural functions which are three essential functions. There has been a decrease in the amount of area for economic purposes in the region in the following planning periods. A general decrease in areas for economic purposes and a general increase in areas for ecological purposes were determined during the planning periods. While there was not any area for socio-cultural purposes in the 1996 planning period, there was an area of 1631 ha in the 2009 planning period and 1575 ha in the 2018 planning period. Demands of the society and the changes in forest management planning approaches over time, changes have occurred in forest functions. Depending on these changes, decreased in production forests and increases in non-production forests (ecological and socio-cultural) were observed.

Tracking industry pollution sources and health risks in China

Agglomeration of firms significantly increases pollution emission intensity and brings unintended consequences to public health. We develop the pollution emission indices using the firm-level pollutant emission data in China to track pollution intensities at the source using the locally weighted regression approach. Our constant-quality pollutant emission indices for three pollutants (wastewater discharge, COD, and SO2) and the pollution emission heatmaps show decreasing trends for the three pollutants from 1998 to 2012. We also show significant spatial clustering and regional variations in pollution emission trends. Industrial pollution mitigations in China's Eastern and Central regions have been neglected for decades since 2021, when driving economic growth took priority. The regime shifts in pollution controls from the 10th (2000–2005) to the 11th (2006–2010) Five-Year Plan period show the effects of tightening pollution emission controls. Failure to cut pollution emissions at source causes health consequences to residents living and working in nearby polluting industries. The latent environmental hazard could be a ticking time bomb, which could not be delinked from the emergence of cancer villages in the regions. Therefore, enforcing strict and uniform pollution controls and setting clear emission limits at sources can eliminate free-rider problems by polluting firms.

RESEARCH ON GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION DATA CIRCULATION SUPPORTS THE CONSTRUCTION OF DIGITAL CHINA

Abstract. Accelerating digital development and building a Digital China is an important engine for promoting Chinese-style modernization, which has become the development tone of the 14th Five-Year Plan period. The Overall Layout Plan for the Construction of Digital China clearly requires the improvement of the three-dimensional "One Map" of natural resources and the basic information platform of land and space, and the transformation of governance mode driven by digitalization. Giving full play to the value of geographic information data elements and comprehensively and effectively supporting national and local high-quality development has become an important topic for the construction of Digital China. Firstly, this paper expounds the connotation and application of geographic information data circulation. Secondly, it proposed the construction of geographic information data circulation system, designed the overall framework, basic requirements and technical indicators of geographic information data infrastructure and geographic information resource database, in order to better support the construction of Digital China. Thirdly, other aspects of geographic information data circulation that need to be paid attention to are given. It mainly includes geographic information data security and user location privacy issues aspects. Finally, the opportunities and challenges of geographic information data circulation are summarized.

Pricing decisions in a two-period closed-loop supply chain game under asymmetric information and uncertainty

AbstractStrategies to increase sustainability are of growing relevance for supply chains and especially for the management of production processes. In this paper, we build on existing literature in closed-loop supply chain management and consider a two-period game-theoretic model in which product returns are reused in the manufacturing process. In all scenarios, we assume that the return rate of used products is random and not known to the players at the beginning of the planning horizon, thus, they have to deal with uncertainty in period 1. In contrast to existing literature, we will also address the circumstance that the players’ level of information in period 2, after the returns have been realized, can be linked to the collection mode in the supply chain. In Scenario A, the retailer is involved in the collection of the used products and transfers them to the manufacturer, so that symmetric information is available. In Scenario B, on the other hand, the used products reach the manufacturer directly from the customer, so that the manufacturer has an information advantage over the retailer. By comparing these scenarios and a vertically integrated supply chain benchmark case, it becomes clear that, depending on the actual return rate, the presence of private information can be either beneficial or detrimental to the manufacturer. The retailer, on the other hand, can compensate for information disadvantages in most cases over the multi-period planning period due to its position as a Stackelberg leader. Regardless of the amount of a transfer payment offered to it by the manufacturer, it prefers the collection of the goods by the manufacturer itself. These findings contribute to literature on symmetric information, where, for example, a retailer-led collection is preferred (Savaskan et al. Manage Sci 50(2):239–252, 2004) or the decision depends on the amount of the transfer payment (Modak et al. J Clean Prod 171:512–528, 2018). However, we show that cooperation between the players leads to the best results not only economically but also from an ecological point of view.

Information technology of quality improvement planning of process subsets of the spice model

The object of research is the software development process. The subject of the study is models, methods and information technology for planning quality improvement of a subset of processes of the SPICE maturity model. The aim of the work is to implement the developed models, method and technology within the framework of information technology and check its performance on test examples. Research methods: quality engineering of software systems; the theory of utility, on the basis of which the target function of the model is built; the method of options sequential analysis; the decision-making theory and modeling of business processes in the development of decision-making support information technology. Applied models: the SPICE maturity model is formalized, which is presented in the form of a hierarchical system; a model for evaluating the level of possibility of a separate process/subprocess of the SPICE model was synthesized; the quality improvement-planning model of a subset of the SPICE model processes under conditions of limited resources is synthesized. The method of options sequential analysis was applied, which was implemented on the basis of the "Kyiv Broom" algorithm. The obtained results: a technology for solving the given task was developed, which is presented in the form of a sequence of execution of individual business processes using the IDEFO standard; the requirements for software were defined; a data model of the subject area was developed; the toolkit for software development is substantiated; the software architecture was chosen; a diagram of software components placement is presented; the performance of the developed information technology was verified on test examples. The practical significance of the work lies in the fact that the obtained information technology allows the managers of IT companies within the limits of the allocated resources in a certain planning period to build the trajectory of the development of the most significant processes of software, to determine how their level of opportunity will increase in each planning sub-period in order to obtain quality software.