Perceptions Of Climate Variability Research Articles

Assessing the Effects of Climate Variability on Maize Yield in the Municipality of Dschang—Cameroon

Evidence-based research on the effects of rainfall, temperature, and relative humidity variability on maize yield is essential for understanding the climate dynamics of, and paving the way for informed adaptive solutions to future potential negative impacts in, Dschang-Cameroon. This study employed the non-parametric Mann–Kendall and Sen’s slope method to detect trends in climate variables and maize yield in the period between 1990 to 2018. Pearson correlation and multilinear regression (MLR) analyses were also used to establish the linear relationship between climate variables and maize yield, and to explore the behavior of the response variable (maize yield) with the predictor variables (climatic variables), respectively. In addition, perceptions of climate variability and its impact on maize yield from a hundred farmers were collected through a questionnaire and analyzed in SPSS. Twenty key informants’ interviews (KII) were conducted using a semi-structured interview and analyzed by thematic analysis. The results showed that the minimum temperature exhibited a decreasing trend at a rate of 0.039 °C per annum, whereas relative humidity had an increasing trend of 0.25% per annum with statistical significance at p = 0.001. In addition, a decreasing trend of rainfall, at a rate of 4.94 mm per annum, was observed; however, this had no statistical significance. Furthermore, the MLR analysis showed that mean temperature and relative humidity have an inversely proportional but statistically significant relationship with maize yield (p = 0.046 and p = 0.001, respectively). The analysis of farmers’ perceptions confirmed the results of trend analyses of decreasing rainfall and increasing maximum temperatures. Moreover, the farmers asserted that the vulnerability of farmers to climate variability is also linked to gender and locality, where women’s outputs are more assailable and farms in low-lying areas are more prone to floods. The high price of farm inputs was also reported as a key factor, other than climate variability, hindering the flourishing of the maize sector in Dschang. Finally, an analysis of the KII indicated the inadequate implementation of flagship agricultural programs in the locality.

Perceived Effects of Climate Variability on Crop Production in Imo State, Nigeria

This study assessed the effect of climate variability on crop production in Imo State, Nigeria. Climate variability has direct impacts that cause vulnerability to the natural and social systems through changes in average temperatures, temperature extremes and extreme weather events like flooding and droughts. The study described the socio-economic characteristics of the crop farmers, ascertained crop farmers’ knowledge on climate variability, determined the perception of farmers on climate variability, and examined the perceived effects of climate variability on food crop yield production. A multistage sampling procedure was used in the selection of one hundred and eighty-three (183) crop-based farmers. Structured questionnaires were used in obtaining data and the data collected were analyzed using frequency, percentage, mean score and multiple regression analysis. Findings show that the mean age was 48.77 years. Majority (71.58%) were females. Majority (78.14%) were married with an average household size of 8 persons. Most (65.57%) had secondary education with an average farming experience of 21.18 years. Average farm size and farm income were 1.24 hectares and ₦33,000.00 respectively. Findings show that farmers had major knowledge of climate variability as zero/minimum tillage practices (99.45%) and knowledge on rain-water harvesting (97.81%) amongst others. Farmers perceived climate variability (x̄ = 3.49), starts late and ends early (x̄ = 3.45), extremes in temperatures (x̄ = 3.39), too much/heavy rains (x̄ = 3.396) and long dry spells during the season (x̄ = 3.51), amongst others. Crop farmers further perceived that climate variability has resulted in declining crop yields (x̄ = 3.35), increased water scarcity on farm (x̄ = 3.45), high incidences of pest and diseases (x̄ = 3.29), and increased rate of erosion/flooding (x̄ = 3.50) amongst others. The study strongly recommends that the extension services should be strengthened so as to pay farmers regular visits to ascertain their challenges on the effects of climate variability and know where to assist them.

Vulnerability and resilience in the face of climate changes in Senegal's drylands: measurement at the household level and determinant assessment

The resilience capacity of smallholder households is one of the main drivers of their ability to continue to farm and make investments in the fragile dryland regions. This paper aims to assess the resilience profile of smallholder farmers in the face of climate change and the factors influencing it in three dryland sub-regions of Senegal, namely, Louga, Kaffrine, and Thies. We developed a composite index of climate resilience (CICR) using data on farmers' perceptions of climate variability and their perceived ability to withstand, adapt, and bounce back in the event of climatic shocks. Drought, strong winds, and soil fertility decline because of climate change emerged as the main climate hazards impacting smallholder farming systems. The CICR value ranged from −2 for the most vulnerable households to +2 for the most resilient households. On average, all the households were found to be vulnerable, with an average CICR value of −0.2. The LOUGA region was the most vulnerable, with an average CICR value of −0.36, followed by THIES (-0.2). The KAFFRINE region was relatively less vulnerable, with a CICR value of −0.1. Ordered logit model estimates show that the chances of improving CICR decrease with the increase of the household head's age until 59 years. Access to training on climate-smart agricultural (CSA) practices and climate information appeared to have the potential to increase by 171% the chance of the household improving its resilience status. Analysis also shows that one more woman working off-farm or in-home gardening has the potential to multiply by four times the chances of households being more resilient. This highlights the importance of empowering women to enhance household resilience to climate change. The off-farm revenue increased the chance to improve the resilience status of the farm household by 62% and the receipt of transfer revenue by 50%. This study provides a robust method for quantifying resilience or wellbeing and its drivers and enriches our understanding of the resilience ability of farmers to climate change in a West African context. It can be useful in designing effective adaptation interventions and improving the overall wellbeing of smallholder farmers.

Strategies of Communities Faced with Climate Change in the Sahelian Zone of Burkina Faso: The Case of the Namissiguima Municipality in the Province of Yat Enga (Northern Region)

Climate change is a concern of our time, both at global level and at community level, where its impacts vary according to context. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the causes of this change are anthropogenic and require urgent action on the part of humanity in terms of mitigation but also in terms of adaptation to strengthen the resilience of populations. The municipality of Namissiguima (13° 36′ 00″ north and 2° 13′01″ west), in the province of Yat Enga in Burkina Faso, is no exception. Located in the Sahelian agro-climatic zone of Burkina Faso and receiving less than 600mm of water per year, it has a population of almost 59,000, 51.7% of whom are women and 48.3% men, whose main occupations are farming and livestock rearing (94.6%). Through a participatory analysis using the “Trousse a outils planification et suivi-evaluation des capacites d’adaptation au changement climatique (TOP-SECAC)”, this paper aims to analyze local communities’ perceptions of climate variability and change and their perceived causes, to assess the impacts of climate variability and climate change on communities’ livelihoods, and to discuss the adaptation strategies used by local people to mitigate these impacts.

Perception of Adaptation Strategies to Climate Variability in Machakos County, Kenya

The study was designed to assess climate variability trends on rainfall and temperature data between 1990 and 2020, analyse community perception to climate variability, evaluate adaptation strategies and their effectiveness and examined the challenges of adaptation to climate variability. Farmers were randomly selected and questionnaires administered, while focused group discussions were conducted to obtain farmer’s perceptions of climate variability. Rainfall and temperature data was statistically analysed using Mann Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator (p<0.05. The study found out there was a significant variation in the amount of annual rainfall received of (p< 0.004) (S= -53) which showed a decreasing trend, while temperature showed a warming trend of (p>0.099) (S=29). Also, farmers perceived that climate variability events were real with (71.1%) and (68.0%) noticing a change in rainfall and temperature respectively over the same period. The study established that community perceptions on rainfall and temperature trends agreed with meteorological data on observed climatic trends. Planting of drought resistant crops was most popular with (89.8%) (n=255) agreeing, while (79.2%) said it was the most effective strategy. The study found that although some farmers have adopted some adaptation strategies, they were constrained with (82.4%) agreeing that age was a great challenge to adaptation and had a moderate negative correlation with adaptation of (0.097) with labour and (25.5%) saying it was not a challenge. The study recommends farmers use the study findings on rainfall and temperature trends and data recordings on local agricultural performances to enhance their ability to adapt. To researchers and academic community the study recommends the intensification of research on ecosystem-based adaptation and the use of the results in mainstreaming policy making, planning and implementation of climate related decisions. The results reveal important knowledge that if effectively applied will inform the county government in climate management decisions and reduce farmer’s vulnerability.

We used to ‘chase the rains’ away in the past: the role of cultural values and beliefs in shaping farmers’ perceptions of climate variability and change in North-west Ghana

ABSTRACT This paper explores how cultural values and beliefs influence farmers' perceptions of climate variability and change (CVC). Using Doggoh and Tie in North-west Ghana, the study reveals four narratives linked to cultural values and beliefs explaining climate changes: a decline in ritual sacrifices, young people having sex outside homes, traders holding on to rains for business, and indiscriminate murder without necessary sacrifices. The study suggests that more qualitative studies on the role of cultural worldviews in shaping farmers' interpretations of climate changes are needed, as different cultural contexts may have different worldviews about climate change causes. This will contribute to our holistic understanding of the subject matter of the causes of CVC.

Determinants’ of Farmers´ Perception of Climate Variability and Change and Its Effect on Non-Farm Income Diversification

Determinants’ of Farmers´ Perception of Climate Variability and Change and Its Effect on Non-Farm Income Diversification

Perceptions of climate variability and change in coastal Kenya: The case of mangrove-dependent communities in the Lower Tana Delta

Climate change has become a global concern with substantial impacts in all regions, especially coastal communities. In response, coastal communities take different adaptation strategies to minimise the negative impacts of climate change. Understanding climate change from the perspective of local communities can provide valuable insights into policy and strategy planning for the unprecedented consequences of climate change. Data was gathered in three sub-locations through a questionnaire survey (365 households), four (4) focus group discussions (FGDs) and eleven (11) key informant interviews (KIIs). We also explored meteorological data to understand better the local significance of climate variability and climate change. Descriptive statistics and logistic regression were used to analyse the data. The results show that local communities perceived changes in climate variables, consistent with meteorological data, pointing to a significant decline in rainfall and increased temperatures since the 1980s. The communities also highlighted climate-related events such as floods, droughts, saltwater intrusion, and coastal erosion, expressing concern that these were rising. The perceived changes in the climatic variables have led to a decline in crop yields, fish catch, and water quantity, an increase in drought duration and intensity, and plant and animal diseases. Targeted efforts are required, given the likely magnitude of future climate change.

The role of integrated watershed management in climate change adaptation for small-scale farmers in Southwest Ethiopia

Climate change severely affects smallholder farmers in developing countries such as Ethiopia. To overcome the impacts, the government of Ethiopia has been undertaking a massive adaptation programs including integrated watershed management practices. However, there is a limited understanding of climate change, adaptation strategies, and the effect and acceptance of the implemented techniques. The objective of this study was to assess climate variability, farmers’ climate change adaptation strategies, and the role of watershed management in climate change adaptation. A multi-stage sampling technique was used to select 255 household heads from three rural kebeles (lowest administrative unit of government) in high, mid, and low-elevation areas. The household survey, focus group discussion, and key informant interview record were used to collect data. In addition, long term meteorology record was used. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and a multinomial logit model. The results showed that more than 80% of the farmers, in each elevation, perceived climate variability such as increasing temperature and rainfall fluctuations. The perceived variability is more pronounced in the low-elevation areas. The meteorology record also showed fluctuation in rainfall. About 90% of respondents in each elevation area perceived population pressure, cultivation, and deforestation as the major causes of climate variability. About 90% of respondents perceived crop yield decline due to climate variability. In drought years, crop yield and livestock production decline by ∼50% compared to the average year. Adjustment of crop planting time, crop diversification, selling household assets, participating in off-farm activities, and using government aid were practiced as climate change adaptation measures. About 70% of farmers perceived the positive role of watershed management in climate change adaptation. On average, 36–43% of the farmers in the study area participated in watershed management activities such as the construction of bunds and tree planting, which assist in coping with climate variability impacts. Farm size, sex, education, and farming experience positively and significantly affect the adaptation practices of the farmers. Policymakers and practitioners need to consider the issues related to climate variability and watershed management as a strategy for climate change adaptation. Policy intervention by the Federal government on sustainable watershed management and rural livelihood strategies could assist in sustainable environmental management and climate change adaptation.

Factors that influence pastoralists’ estimation of onset and cessation of rains in Rwenzori region in Western Uganda

There have been improvements in scientific forecast dissemination through radio, internet, and mobile phones in Eastern and Southern Africa, however pastoralists remain unreached. Majority of pastoralists are not using scientific forecasts routinely to estimate rainfall onset and cessation. Indigenous knowledge forecasts (IF) play an important role in pastoralists' decision-making related to rangeland use and climate change adaptation. This study examined the factors that influence the estimation of climatological onset and cessation of rains among pastoralists in Rwenzori region in western Uganda. Data were gathered from 269 pastoralists’ households about socio-economic characteristics and rain onset and cessation estimation. The data was analyzed using the probit model. The results indicate that herd mobility, climate information use (both scientific and indigenous), wealth, education level, social capital and perception of climate variability and change were determinants of rainfall onset estimation. Agricultural extension access, having lactating cows, and perception of climate variability and change increased the likelihood of accurate estimation of rainfall cessation. Investments in weather stations in pastoral areas, constructive engagement of stakeholders in climate services, strengthening the linkage between national agricultural extension and meteorological systems would improve the estimation of rainfall onset and cessation that could result in an improved adaptive capacity of pastoralists. Mainstreaming climate change information in national agricultural extension systems and enhancing climate forecast communication through social capital could reduce the vulnerability of pastoral livelihoods to climate change.

Farmers’ perceptions of climate variability and adaptation strategies in the rural areas of Dire Dawa administration, eastern Ethiopia

Climate variability has significant impact on agricultural production especially in low-income countries where agriculture largely relies on rainfall, but only a few studies explored this issue at local scale. Therefore, this study was conducted to characterize local climate and assess farmers' perceptions and adaptation strategies to climate variability in the rural areas of Dire Dawa administration. Historical rainfall and temperature data (1987–2017) were obtained from National Meteorological Agency (NMA) of Ethiopia, while data of farmers' perceptions and adaptation strategies were collected from a total of 120 household heads through survey questionnaire, key informant interviews and focus group discussions. The results revealed that the area received an average annual rainfall of 568.3 mm with main rainy season (kiremt) contributing 70.7% to annual rainfall. The earliest and latest onset dates of kiremt season were 15th of April and 2nd of August, respectively. The amount of annual and kiremt rainfall totals showed low and medium variability with a coefficient variability (CV) of 18.3% and 27.7%, respectively, whereas short rainy season (belg) rainfall had high variability with a CV of 43.9%. Climate variability perception analysis showed that an overwhelming majority of the respondents (90%) perceived a decrease in the annual rainfall and 91.7% detected an increase in annual average temperature in the study area. Farmers of the study area were well aware of the changes in rainfall and temperature and thus employed a range of adaptation practices. Soil and water conservation practices (100%), off-farm income diversification (63%), planting drought-tolerant varieties (50%) and changing of planting date (45%) were the main adaptation strategies employed in the study area to avert the negative effects of climate variability. The findings imply that the area has been experiencing palpable changes in climate variables during the study period against which farmers exercised multiple adaptation strategies. However, farmers in the area are still face hardship as a result of climate variability which necessitates improving farmers’ resilience through innovative mechanisms and better extension services.

Determinants of yam farmers’ adaptation practices to climate variability in the Ejura Sekyedumase municipality, Ghana

This study assessed the factors affecting yam farmers' adaptation practices to climate variability in the Ejura Sekyedumase Municipality, Ghana. Primary data was collected through 160 household surveys and 8 key informant interviews. Binary logistic regression was used to assess the factors affecting the yam farmers’ choice of adaptation practices. Findings revealed that the yam farmers perceived climate variability through changes in the onset and patterns of rainfall, increasing windstorms, and rising temperatures. The yam farmers perceived the adverse effects of climate variability on their yam production to include a reduction in yam yields (98%), decreased income of farmers (97%), and reduced soil fertility (97%). Findings also showed that the yam farmers utilized key adaptation practices including changing the planting period of yam (88%), planting early-maturing yam seeds/varieties (86%), and intercropping yam with other crops (84%). The key adaptation practices implemented by the farmers were significantly affected by socioeconomic factors including age, years of stay in the community, household size, access to extension services, marital status, education, farming experience, access to climate information, estimated farm size, and estimated farm income (p < 0.05). The empirical findings of this study reinforce the importance of policymakers devising suitable climate variability adaptation policies for yam farmers in Ghana while taking into cognizance the socioeconomic factors that could affect their adoption of such adaptation practices.

Farmers’ Perception of Climate Variability and Adaptation Strategies in Akoko Southwest Local Government Area, Ondo State, Nigeria

The research assessed farmers of arable crops in Akoko southwest local government area of Ondo State, Nigeria on their adaptation strategies to perceived climatic unpredictability. Using a multistage sampling, cross-sectional data were collected from 150 farmers in rural areas of all the local governments using a standardized questionnaire. Descriptive and inferential statistics including chi-square, Pearson Product Moment Correlation (PPMC), and Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) were utilized to analyses the study's data. The study revealed a significant relationship between household size (χ2=179.3, p&lt;0.05), farm size (χ2=136.4, p&lt;0.05) and adaptation strategies. Also, there was a significant influence of gender (t=3.001), access to credit (t=2.459), and other sources of income (t=2.384) on adaptation strategies to be adopted by farmers at p&lt;0.05. The findings indicate that the farmers are severely constrained by a lack of suitable irrigation infrastructure and insufficient government support, which has decreased production and may result in lower profits and more poverty. According to the results, farmers' perceptions of climatic unpredictability have a significant impact on their adaptation techniques. A better understanding of climatic variability would help farmers develop better adaptation strategies, which will enhance their livelihoods and lower poverty levels in rural regions. The government should launch awareness and sensitization programmers at all levels to create a community where farmers are well-versed in the causes and impacts of climatic variability.

Climate variability trends-community perspective-livelihood adaptation strategy nexus in the arid-tropics, Ethiopia

Integration of scientific evidences with community perception and livelihood adaptation strategies is vital for understanding the complex and dynamic nature of climate change. Some climate studies in the study area, however, had focused either on perception or scientific records giving less attention to their integration. This study hence used a mixed method to examine the nexus between climate variability trends, farmers' perception, and livelihood adaptation strategies in the Ethiopian arid tropics. Cross-sectional data, i.e. household characteristics, perception, and adaptation choices to climate variability were collected from 260 households. Farmers' perceptions were compared with meteorological trends for comprehensive understanding. Deceptive and inferential statistics, trend line index, as well as binomial and multinomial logistic regression models were used for data analysis. The farmers' perception of increasing temperature and decreasing rainfall were significantly correlated with meteorological trends. Farmers who perceived climate variability applied a set of strategies (viz., livestock-production improving, crop-yield enhancing, non-agriculture income diversifying) to manage the antagonistic climatic effects. The regression result also demonstrates that apart from knowledge and its correlates, sex, family size, and wealth of the household significantly influenced the farmers' perception and livelihood adaptation choices. Empowering the female-headed community members, access to improved agricultural technologies, non-agriculture income diversification, and intensification of climate knowledge through capacity-building campaigns would improve the farmers' perception and adaptation choices to climate variability. Therefore, to formulate robust and feasible adaptation policies to climate change, decision-makers should consider a mixed approach that integrates perception with meteorological trends.

Observed time series trend analysis of climate variability and smallholder adoption of new agricultural technologies in west Shewa, Ethiopia

This study was aimed at analyzing time-series trends and variability analysis of observed rainfall and temperature records from 16 stations during the 1985–2015 period. Besides, it focused on the smallholders’ perceptions, including the analysis of their response strategies to both observed and perceived climate variability and its determinants. Both purposive and random sampling procedures were used. Mixed methods (quantitative and qualitative) of the research were used. The sample household survey method was used to collect primary data from smallholder farmers, while key informant interviews were used to gather qualitative data from the experts. A semi-structured questionnaire was used to collect quantitative data, whereas a discussion guide checklist was used to gather qualitative data. A total of 397 respondents and 24 key informants were used as sources of primary data. In addition, visits to the National Meteorology Agency of Ethiopia were made to collect recorded climate data. Descriptive statistics and econometric models were used to analyze quantitative data, whereas thematic categorization was used to analyze and report qualitative data. The results show that both the summer and annual rainfall have an increasing trend but are not statistically significant. With regards to variability, low to moderate levels of variability were recorded according to the seasons and annual rainfall. The result of the Mann-Kendall test shows that the mean minimum temperature was raised by 0.05 °C while the maximum temperature rose by 0.03 °C/30 years. The monthly maximum temperature also shows an increasing trend, with the lowest record during August (22.05 °C) and the highest in March (26.49 °C. Besides, smallholder farmers’ perceptions were in accordance with recorded station data. In response to both observed and perceived climate variability and its extremes, smallholder farmers in the study area were striving to adopt different adaptation strategies. Rain variability, frequency of extension contact, years of farming experience, access to institutions and infrastructure, wealth status, market access, and the number of active labor force within the household all hampered smallholder farmers' efforts to implement potential measures. In contrast, the high prices of chemicals and improved seed, access to credit services, land size, and limited access to accurate and timely early warning information all negatively and significantly influenced the adaptation decisions of smallholder farmers in the area. Therefore, the impacts of abnormal trends or shifts in observed rainfall and temperature patterns, along with socio-economic, technological, and behavioral factors, call for policymakers to set strategies that will enable smallholders to improve their livelihoods, ensure food security, and build resilience in the face of climatic extremes.

Climate variability and extractivism exposures: Understanding household perspectives on livelihood resilience in rural Ghana

The resilience of African rural livelihoods is at risk due to over-reliance on rain-fed agriculture, which increasingly suffers from climate variability. Extractive communities are exposed to changes from extractivism and climate conditions. The double exposure framework is employed to contextualise factors influencing households’ perspectives on the overlapping impacts of these change processes on livelihoods. The results affirm a general awareness that both climate variability and extractivism affect rural livelihoods. In addition, contextual factors such as gender, cultural connections, education, type of occupation, agroecological and resource extractivism types significantly influence households’ perception of climate variability and extractivism effects on livelihoods. Example, large size households located in the deciduous forest zones are more likely to perceive that their livelihoods are double exposed to climatic variability and extractivism effects. Communities affected by mineral/forestry extractivism are more likely to perceive double exposure of climatic variability and extractivism effects on their livelihood sources. Households expect the national government and extractive companies to provide alternative livelihoods and improve infrastructure to enhance their resilience. The study shows that differential factors underpin the perceived risk of rural livelihoods exposure to climate change and extractivism, thus supporting the need for policy-makers to include mining landscapes in national adaptation programs.

ASSESSMENT OF THE PERCEPTION OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND ITS EFFECT ON FOOD CROP PRODUCTION IN BAMA LOCAL GOVERNMENT AREA OF BORNO STATE, NIGERIA

The study assessed food crop farmer’s perception of climate variability and its effects on food crop production in Bama LGA Borno State, Nigeria. Multi stage sampling was used in drawing 100 respondents for this study. Information was collected using structured questionnaires. Both descriptive and inferential statistics were used to analyze the data. Descriptive statistics used includes frequencies, means and percentages. The inferential statistics used was multiple regressions model. The result revealed that majority of 71% where male and dominated food crop production, 76% were also married. Furthermore, 56% had 5-8 household members. 20% had tertiary education, while 43% had primary education. The result revealed that 45% had 5-8ha of land for food crop production. An overwhelming majority of 90% perceived those gases released from factories/industries and auto mobile ranked 1st as responsible for causing climate variability. 87% ranked deforestation as 2nd cause of climate variability, while 10% ranked traditional neglect as the 12th and least cause of climate variability. For the effect of climate variability on food crop production, majority of 95% ranked decrease in crop yield as the 1st effect of climate variability, 94% ranked reduced income from crop yield as the 2nd effect of climate variability. The least perceived effect of climate variability was reduced cover crop which was ranked by 50% of the respondents in 14th place. The result of factors influencing the perceived effect of climate variability was positive and significant at P≤0.05 and P≤0.01, respectively. The coefficient of gender was positive and significant at P≤0.05 which implies that every male had higher chance of being affected by the effect of climate variability than their female counter part. The study recommended more campaign on climate variability for rural farmers. Also, government, non-governmental organizations and policy makers should create an avenue where more female farmers could participate and have access to arable land.

Effects of Perceived Climate Variability on Provisioning Ecosystem Services Among Agro-Pastoral Systems of Laikipia West Sub-County, Kenya

The impact of climate variability on societies around the world is increasingly evident. A vast majority of communities in Eastern Africa depend on agro-pastoralism for their livelihoods, however climate variability threatens a vast majority of these communities. Kenya is one of the most vulnerable countries and economic sectors and livelihoods frequently experience the manifestations of the problem. Climate variability therefore, affects provision of ecosystem services, especially those depended on by agro-pastoral farmers in Laikipia West sub-County, Kenya. This study determined the effects of perceived climate variability on provisioning ecosystem services (food supply/crop yield, livestock production and water availability) and response strategies employed by agro-pastoral farmers to mitigate risks in semi-arid Laikipia West sub-County. Both quantitative and qualitative data were collected through a combination of methods including: systematic quadrat sampling, key informant interviews and structured questionnaires. The study used multistage stratified sampling to select respondents and study sites; purposive sampling to select the study divisions and proportionate random sampling to select household respondents from each of the selected divisions. Four hundred agro-pastoral farmer households were selected through stratified random sampling. Statistical Package for Social Scientists (SPSS) was used for data analysis. To make reliable inferences from the data, all statistical tests were verified at α = 0.05 level of significance. Results from the study indicated that majority of the agro-pastoral farmers kept poultry and browsers as they required less feed for survival during these times of climate variability and change. Climate variability resulted to decline in food supply/crop yields and water availability had increased yet its amount declined. Climate variability negatively affected provisioning ecosystem services like food supply/crop yield and water availability. The study recommends that, there is need for sensitization on climate smart agricultural practices that would increase food supply and enhance water availability sustainably.

Dryland Pastoralism Climate Landscape and Food Security in the Suam River Basin of Kenya

River basins in the drylands of Sub-Saharan Africa have traditionally been utilized for pastoral livelihoods under communal land tenure. Communities in West Pokot in Kenya have continued to experience increased precipitation and temperature as a result of climate variability and change. This study aimed at assessing the impact of climate variability and change at micro-basin level in order to address research and policy gaps on climate change and food security as policy arena shifts from centralized to decentralized governance in Kenya. Primary quantitative data was collected from 387 households’ perceptions of climate variability and change and its implications on food security were measured. Food security index score was calculated. The annual rainfall trend over Suam river basin for the period (1981-2020), was characterized by a linearly increasing annual rainfall trend. Mann Kendall test Z-statistics and Tau were at 2.3578 and 0.0720 respectively. The basin experienced the highest rainfall variability during the first decade (1981-1990) with the highest coefficient of rainfall variation noted at 11.5%. The highest temperature was recorded in the third decade (2001-2010) and fourth decade (2011-2020) at 27.0 and 28.2 degrees Celsius respectively. However, the overall index score for food security was 55.78 with food availability scoring the highest index, mean (SD) of 63.41 (36.52). This was attributed to households’ practice of both nomadic pastoralism and agro-pastoralism activities. Climate variability and change, have resulted in increased amount of rainfall received providing for opportunity investment in rain water harvesting to support both pastoralism and agro-pastoralism production to enhance food security.

Climate Variability Patterns and Farmers’ Perceptions of Its Impact on Food Production: A Case Study of the Gelda Watershed in the Lake Tana Basin in Northwest Ethiopia

This study looked at patterns of erratic climate and farmer perceptions in the Gelda watershed of Lake Tana Basin in northwestern Ethiopia. The National Meteorological Agency of Ethiopia provided essential climatic data for the period between 1981 and 2011. A household survey and focus group discussions were also used to understand about local communities’ perceptions of climate variability and its impact on food production. Time series trend analysis of observed rainfall and temperature conditions was detected using linear regression analysis. To compare the means of climatic parameters and determine whether the average difference was significantly different from zero, the paired sampled t-test was used. The study found that the average annual temperature trend increased by 1.1°C, while the amount and distribution of annual and monthly rainfall decreased, varied across the catchment, and fluctuated during the study periods (1981–2011) at mean temperature rise with an average rate of 0.17°C in the last decade. The variability of annual and monthly rainfall in terms of intensity and distribution has decreased and varied across the watershed. The analysis revealed that annual rainfall variability was variable in the upper catchment (CV &gt; 11.7%) and lower catchment (CV &gt; 14.4%). The amount and intensity of temperature, on the other hand, increased throughout the study watershed, despite observed variation both spatially and temporally (stated decades). Farmers’ understanding and expression of climate variability in terms of erratic rainfall distribution, decreasing amount, and increasing temperature over the last three decades, however, matched the observed data. Moreover, farmers are pointed out that high population pressure; deforestation and intensified agriculture are responsible factors for the variability of climate in the study watershed. Therefore, based on the findings, scientist and policymakers has to design appropriate adaptation measures that can tackle the aggravation of climate variability for future.