Perceptions of climate variability and change in coastal Kenya: The case of mangrove-dependent communities in the Lower Tana Delta

Abstract

Climate change has become a global concern with substantial impacts in all regions, especially coastal communities. In response, coastal communities take different adaptation strategies to minimise the negative impacts of climate change. Understanding climate change from the perspective of local communities can provide valuable insights into policy and strategy planning for the unprecedented consequences of climate change. Data was gathered in three sub-locations through a questionnaire survey (365 households), four (4) focus group discussions (FGDs) and eleven (11) key informant interviews (KIIs). We also explored meteorological data to understand better the local significance of climate variability and climate change. Descriptive statistics and logistic regression were used to analyse the data. The results show that local communities perceived changes in climate variables, consistent with meteorological data, pointing to a significant decline in rainfall and increased temperatures since the 1980s. The communities also highlighted climate-related events such as floods, droughts, saltwater intrusion, and coastal erosion, expressing concern that these were rising. The perceived changes in the climatic variables have led to a decline in crop yields, fish catch, and water quantity, an increase in drought duration and intensity, and plant and animal diseases. Targeted efforts are required, given the likely magnitude of future climate change.