Climate variability trends-community perspective-livelihood adaptation strategy nexus in the arid-tropics, Ethiopia

Abstract

Integration of scientific evidences with community perception and livelihood adaptation strategies is vital for understanding the complex and dynamic nature of climate change. Some climate studies in the study area, however, had focused either on perception or scientific records giving less attention to their integration. This study hence used a mixed method to examine the nexus between climate variability trends, farmers' perception, and livelihood adaptation strategies in the Ethiopian arid tropics. Cross-sectional data, i.e. household characteristics, perception, and adaptation choices to climate variability were collected from 260 households. Farmers' perceptions were compared with meteorological trends for comprehensive understanding. Deceptive and inferential statistics, trend line index, as well as binomial and multinomial logistic regression models were used for data analysis. The farmers' perception of increasing temperature and decreasing rainfall were significantly correlated with meteorological trends. Farmers who perceived climate variability applied a set of strategies (viz., livestock-production improving, crop-yield enhancing, non-agriculture income diversifying) to manage the antagonistic climatic effects. The regression result also demonstrates that apart from knowledge and its correlates, sex, family size, and wealth of the household significantly influenced the farmers' perception and livelihood adaptation choices. Empowering the female-headed community members, access to improved agricultural technologies, non-agriculture income diversification, and intensification of climate knowledge through capacity-building campaigns would improve the farmers' perception and adaptation choices to climate variability. Therefore, to formulate robust and feasible adaptation policies to climate change, decision-makers should consider a mixed approach that integrates perception with meteorological trends.