Perception of Adaptation Strategies to Climate Variability in Machakos County, Kenya

Abstract

The study was designed to assess climate variability trends on rainfall and temperature data between 1990 and 2020, analyse community perception to climate variability, evaluate adaptation strategies and their effectiveness and examined the challenges of adaptation to climate variability. Farmers were randomly selected and questionnaires administered, while focused group discussions were conducted to obtain farmer’s perceptions of climate variability. Rainfall and temperature data was statistically analysed using Mann Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator (p<0.05. The study found out there was a significant variation in the amount of annual rainfall received of (p< 0.004) (S= -53) which showed a decreasing trend, while temperature showed a warming trend of (p>0.099) (S=29). Also, farmers perceived that climate variability events were real with (71.1%) and (68.0%) noticing a change in rainfall and temperature respectively over the same period. The study established that community perceptions on rainfall and temperature trends agreed with meteorological data on observed climatic trends. Planting of drought resistant crops was most popular with (89.8%) (n=255) agreeing, while (79.2%) said it was the most effective strategy. The study found that although some farmers have adopted some adaptation strategies, they were constrained with (82.4%) agreeing that age was a great challenge to adaptation and had a moderate negative correlation with adaptation of (0.097) with labour and (25.5%) saying it was not a challenge. The study recommends farmers use the study findings on rainfall and temperature trends and data recordings on local agricultural performances to enhance their ability to adapt. To researchers and academic community the study recommends the intensification of research on ecosystem-based adaptation and the use of the results in mainstreaming policy making, planning and implementation of climate related decisions. The results reveal important knowledge that if effectively applied will inform the county government in climate management decisions and reduce farmer’s vulnerability.