Pent-up Demand Research Articles

Barómetro OMT del Turismo Mundial y anexo estadístico, septiembre 2021

International tourism shows slight recovery in June and July 2021 driven by vaccinations and border reopening International tourist arrivals (overnight visitors) in the first seven months of 2021 were 40% below the levels of 2020, and still 80% down when compared to the same period of pre-pandemic year 2019. After a weak start of the year, international tourism saw a modest improvement during the months of June and July 2021. The small improvement in June and July was underpinned by the reopening of many destinations to international travel, mostly in Europe and the Americas. The relaxation of travel restrictions to vaccinated travellers, coupled with progress made in the roll-out of COVID-19 vaccines, contributed to ease travel restrictions, lift consumer confidence and gradually restore safe mobility in Europe and other parts of the world. Small islands in the Caribbean, Africa, and Asia and the Pacific, together with a few small European destinations recorded the best performance in June and July, with arrivals coming close to, or sometimes exceeding pre-pandemic levels. July (-67%) saw comparatively better performance than June (-77%), making it the best month so far since April 2020. Asia and the Pacific continued to suffer the weakest results in January-July 2021, with a 95% drop in international arrivals compared to the same period in 2019. The Middle East (-82%) recorded the second largest decline, followed by Europe and Africa (both -77%). The Americas (-68%) saw a comparatively smaller decrease. Although destinations continued to report very weak international tourism revenues in the first seven months of 2021, several countries recorded a modest improvement in the months of June and July, and some even surpassed the earnings of 2019. The same is true for outbound travel. Among the larger source markets, France (-35% over 2019) and the United States (-49%) saw a small rebound in expenditure in July. Despite the relative improvement over the low levels of 2020, international tourism remained well below 2019 levels. This is also reflected in the evaluation made by the UNWTO Panel of Experts in the September survey, showing mixed results for the period May-August 2021. Looking ahead, most experts continue to expect a rebound in 2022, driven by unleashed pent-up demand, mostly during the second and third quarter of that year. Nearly one-third of respondents expect a potential rebound in 2023. Almost half of all experts continue to see a return of international arrivals to 2019 levels in 2024 or later.

Come By Chance: Newfoundland and Global Medical Migration, 1950–1976

ABSTRACT The post-Second World War era witnessed a dramatic surge in the transnational migration of doctors and allied healthcare practitioners. During the 1960s in particular, a combination of immigration reform and the expansion of health infrastructures in North America and Western Europe unleashed a pent-up demand for medical and nursing care that led to the relocation of tens of thousands of doctors and nurses from so-called ‘developing’ to ‘developed’ countries. This paper examines the Canadian province of Newfoundland as a case study of this larger global phenomenon. It analyzes the composition of the Newfoundland medical workforce between 1950 and 1976 through a variety of sources – in particular, contemporary Canadian and American medical association directories. This quantitative analysis is supplemented by qualitative sources, including obituaries of Newfoundland doctors in the Canadian Medical Association Journal, reports published in the British Medical Journal, and the testimony of Newfoundland stakeholders and organisations to the Canadian Royal Commission on Health Services (1961–1964). As this paper demonstrates, the majority of the foreign-trained doctors registered in Newfoundland in the 1950s had received their training in Britain and Ireland. Many stayed for short periods of time, remigrating to other parts of the country, or to the United States. By the early 1970s, however, the doctors trained in the British Isles were complemented by physicians and surgeons from the Middle East, from South Asia, and from East Asia, a pattern that reflected trends across the Commonwealth and the United States. This article thus provides insights into the dynamics of global post-war medical migration and professional pathways, attending to the immigration reforms and sociopolitical changes in receiving countries amidst political upheaval in countries of origin.

Um relato do webinar: “A pandemia e a recuperação económica”, com Constantino Sakellarides e Ricardo Reis

What do you get when Constantino Sakellarides and Ricardo Reis get together to discuss the ongoing pandemic and the so-yearned-for economic recovery? An interesting reflection where macroeconomics and public health complement each other. This note reports on one of these sessions, where the recent evolution of the pandemic in Portugal and the world over was discussed, along with the authorities’ response in a setting of uncertainty and the role drug or medicine agencies must play, as regulators. The need for up-to-date indicators was also stressed to be able to control the transmission of the disease, and what needs to be done so that INFARMED sessions become effective scientific counsels. It was further argued that, although tests carry a cost, the associated benefits in controlling the pandemic far outstrip them, given that without public health there is no economic activity. With respect to the European Union’s role in the distribution of vaccines, in addition to having taken too long in approving them, too few jabs were ordered, especially because a global return to normalcy will entail supporting less-developed countries. On the macroeconomic countercyclical policy front and the fiscal response to the crisis, raising public debt proved to be the right thing to do (borrowing from the future), not only to support those who were hit the most with the pandemic, but also to offset the (mechanical?) increase in private saving. The future (2021 and 2022) largely depends on how the private sector will use this excess saving: either prudently, thus delaying the recovery of economic activity, or using it all up as a result of pent-up demand, thus stoking inflationary tensions.

Moral Hazard in Ancillary Private Health Insurance in Australia

We assess moral hazard in Australian ancillary or extras (nonhospital) private health insurance (PHI) relating to dental care services using the longitudinal data in the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey. Cross-sectional probit regressions specify dental care (the most important expenditure component of ancillary cover) as a function of endogenous PHI policy holding, self-assessed health condition, health risk factors and socioeconomic controls including age, income, education, family structure and welfare status. We find that moral hazard is present resulting in the possible overuse of dental care services by PHI holders, bearing in mind this is overuse in relative rather than absolute terms. However, we also find using dynamic analysis that while there is no evidence of pent-up demand (previously uninsured policyholders accessing more dental care services initially) any sort of PHI holding, however sporadic, is always associated with significantly more likely use of dental care services than persons that have never held PHI. This supports the role of PHI in fostering good health care behavior and possibly countering ex ante moral hazard.

Can pent-up demand save international tourism?

• A study of the post crisis outbound travel patterns since 1995 of 49 economies. • Demand recovers quickly after epidemics. • Demand is delayed until two or more years after financial crises have abated. • Pent-up demand leads to a short term spike in departures that fades within a couple of years of the crisis end.

Clothing Consumption During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence From Mining Tweets

Understanding how consumers have shifted in clothing consumption in the midst of the global COVID-19 pandemic is critical for fashion clothing brands and businesses to identify what value means to consumers to locate growth opportunities. This exploratory study intends to provide a picture of consumers’ clothing consumption evolution while going through the pandemic crisis. We take a viewpoint that integrates the perspectives of life status changes and stress coping to examine consumers’ responses to clothing consumption during the COVID-19 global pandemic. A total of 68,511 relevant tweets were collected from January 1, 2020, through September 31, 2020. Sentiment and content analysis identified five themes which are revealed by 16 topics associated with clothing consumption over the phases of pre-lockdown, lockdown, and reopening. Pent-up demand for clothing products and changed clothing consumption habits were identified. Our findings provide evidence that consumption change is the fundamental mechanism of stress coping.

The Roaring Twenties after Covid-19: revisiting the evidence for Europe

Inspired by conspicuous historical parallels, some scholars and journalists have recently postulated that GDP growth and productivity might boom in the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic. This paper reviews the evidence for and against the ‘Roaring 20s’ hypothesis, concluding that some countries might experience a forceful economic expansion, possibly fuelled by pent-up demand, compounding a successful digital and green transition, or leveraging an export-led model. However, a strong prolonged economic bonanza is unlikely to materialise evenly across the EU. An uneven recovery would acquiesce imbalances within the Union, and especially the euro area. As such, policymakers should avoid complacency, and make the most of the Recovery and Resilience Facility funds, combining them with wide-reaching structural reforms, to improve economic prospects for the decade to come.

Medicaid Expansion and Pent-up Demand for Total Joint Replacement: Commentary on an article by Christopher J. Dy, MD, MPH, FACS, et al.: "Increased Utilization of Total Joint Arthroplasty After Medicaid Expansion".

Medicaid Expansion and Pent-up Demand for Total Joint Replacement: Commentary on an article by Christopher J. Dy, MD, MPH, FACS, et al.: "Increased Utilization of Total Joint Arthroplasty After Medicaid Expansion".

Pent-up demand’s realization in the hospitality sector in the context of COVID-19

The article is dedicated to modelling the realization of pent-up demand based on the relationship between the incoming traffic of online booking platforms in the hospitality sector and the volume of tourist arrivals in the context of COVID-19 spread The authors conducted a study on the current trends in the hospitality sector in the aspect of the industry's functioning under COVID-19 The authors identified the development prospects for the hospitality sector as a component of the tourist services market in the context of easing restrictions in the countries of tourist arrivals The article established the specifics of the pent-up demand realization based on the results of the international flights renewal and the functioning of the hospitality industry under COVID-19 The authors analyzed the consumer requests on popular online booking services, Airbnb and Booking com, during the period of partial easing of the restrictions on the movement of tourists, starting from July 2020 Based on the conducted regression analysis, the density of communication between the incoming traffic of the online booking platforms in the hospitality sector and the volume of tourist arrivals in the context of the COVID-19 spread was established Based on the regression modelling, realization of demand in the hospitality sector was forecasted

Canada’s Economy in 2021: Exiting the “Pandemic” Recession

The article analyses the dynamics of the Canadian economy in 2020-2021, during the unprecedented global “pandemic” recession. It is shown that like in many other countries, the economic ups and downs in Canada closely followed the waves of the COVID-19 infection spreading across the regions and the subsequent rounds of regulatory restrictions on “high-contact” economic activities, citizens’ travel inside and outside the country, international trade, and etc. In the latter half of the 2020 several goods-producing industries showed signs of recovery which continued through the following year. However, it was only mass vaccination of Canadians in all provinces and territories that created conditions for sustained re-opening of businesses in most sectors of the national economy by the end 2021. The author looks at the internal and external drivers of recovery and continued growth. It is shown that on the whole the federal emergency plan proved to be successful in providing income support for Canadians and preventing bankruptcies among small and medium-sized businesses. The 2021 Federal Budget includes more than $100 billion in new spending over three years. It is expected that massive fiscal stimulus coupled with pent-up demand will sustain strong consumer spending after the speedy vaccine rollout allows businesses to fully reopen. At the same time, non-residential capital expenditures by private sector companies will increase only moderately in most sectors after a sizable decline in 2020. This year Canada’s resource-based industries are benefiting from the growing global demand for oil and gas, base metals, forest and agricultural products. The concluding part of the article analyses the major risks which can slow the economic recovery: the global supply-chain bottlenecks, labour market imbalances, growing inflation pressures, and massive federal budget deficit.

Demand Composition and the Strength of Recoveries

We argue that recoveries from demand-driven recessions with expenditure cuts concentrated in services or non-durables will tend to be weaker than recoveries from recessions more biased towards durables. Intuitively, the smaller the bias towards more durable goods, the less the recovery is buffeted by pent-up demand. We show that, in a standard multi-sector business-cycle model, this prediction holds if and only if, following an aggregate demand shock to all categories of spending (e.g., a monetary shock), expenditure on more durable goods reverts back faster. This testable condition receives ample support in U.S. data. We then use (i) a semi-structural shift-share and (ii) a structural model to quantify this effect of varying demand composition on recovery dynamics, and find it to be large. We also discuss implications for optimal stabilization policy.

Medicaid Expansion And Health Services Use For Adults Experiencing Homelessness In Arkansas.

More than 500,000 people in the US experience homelessness at any given time, many of whom now qualify for Medicaid in states that expanded coverage under the Affordable Care Act (ACA). In this article we use a novel data set from Arkansas to provide the first estimates of the association between gaining coverage through the ACA's Medicaid expansion and health services use for a population experiencing homelessness. We find that Medicaid expansion was associated with large initial increases in inpatient hospitalizations and emergency department visits-which declined steadily over time-among adults experiencing homelessness compared with use by a sample of adult traditional Medicaid enrollees. Our results provide evidence of substantial pent-up demand for health care among a population experiencing homelessness in Arkansas that gained health insurance coverage as a result of Medicaid expansion.

Reducing Judicial Delay in Resource-Constrained Settings: A Data-Driven Queueing Approach

Shortage of judicial capacity leads to costly delays, stunted economic development, and even failure to deliver justice. This problem is endemic not only in the developing world but also in the congested appeals courts of wealthier nations. Using the Supreme Court of India as an exemplar for such resource-constrained settings, we develop a framework with data-driven queueing simulations for estimating performance metrics such as the expected case-disposition time (delay) and expected number of cases awaiting adjudication (pendency). This allows us to not only calibrate the status quo for judicial performance but to also perform counterfactual analysis that evaluates the relative effectiveness of various interventions such as additional judges, process re-engineering, and workload management. We find that the Supreme Court of India operates in a nearly critically-loaded regime (nearly 100% utilization of capacity) that is characterized by substantial delays, and small perturbations to capacity or process efficiency have dramatic impact on system performance. In particular, increasing judge capacity by 7% (adding a bench) results in a 75% - 90% reduction in average delay. Alternatively, capping the number of adjournments allowed in a case to the recommended number three, also results in a comparable delay reduction. Our findings bode well for the ability to tackle persistent delay, but scrutiny of the court's workload-management practices points to the possibility of perpetually languishing in congestion unless more effective winnowing of pent-up demand (e.g., accepting fewer appeals) is ensured.

Ladies' Day at Boston Red Sox Games: How Discounted Admission for Women Impacted Game Schedules

Ladies' Day at Boston Red Sox GamesHow Discounted Admission for Women Impacted Game Schedules Charlie Bevis (bio) At a Monday afternoon ball game on June 23, 1947, an estimated twenty thousand women sought admission to Ladies' Day at Fenway Park for the game between the Boston Red Sox and Detroit Tigers. However, only 9,813 of those women actually scored entry into the ballpark, as the other ten thousand or so were shut out at the ticket window and remained milling outside the ball-park for more than an hour. The Boston Globe reported that it was "the largest Ladies' Day crowd in Boston baseball history," for a promotion that dated back twenty-four years to its reinstitution at Fenway Park in 1923.1 Red Sox management had to deny entrance to thousands of female fans because there were no more seats in the grandstand to fill that afternoon, since total attendance that day was a near-capacity crowd of 34,160. The paid attendance was 20,652, supplemented by those 9,813 with Ladies' Day passes and the 3,695 passes the Red Sox provided to members of local youth groups. The club never anticipated a sellout crowd that day. "Because of this situation, the Red Sox announced a new policy for future Ladies' Days," the Globe reported. "Women will have to buy their tax and service charge tickets in advance," rather than on the day of the game. The "tax and service charge" associated with a Ladies' Day ticket in 1947 was fifty cents, less than one-half the price of the usual $1.20 ticket for an unreserved grandstand seat.2 The unanticipated high demand for Ladies' Day tickets was sparked by the inaugural night game at Fenway Park ten days earlier on Friday, June 13, and accelerated by the next two night games there on Wednesday, June 18, and Friday, June 20. Night baseball's arrival at Fenway that season created enormous excitement in Boston. The Red Sox were the next-to-last ball club in the American League to install lights, expanding the opportunity to attend a weekday ball game to an entirely new swath of the Greater Boston population that had work or home obligations on weekday afternoons. The two Friday night games at Fenway Park kiboshed the usual Friday [End Page 112] afternoon Ladies' Day games, which the Red Sox had regularly staged since the Great Depression. This established June 23 as a replacement for Ladies' Day, which itself created a small pent-up demand. Perhaps more importantly, the fourth night game of the season was slated for Tuesday, June 24, for which advance-sale tickets were no longer available. Many women appear to have opted to attend Ladies' Day on June 23 rather than take their chances on obtaining day-of-game tickets for the June 24 night game, enlarging the usual quorum of women expected for a Ladies' Day game. This surge of women seeking discounted tickets for a two o'clock game on a Monday in June 1947 marked the apex of Ladies' Day attendance for a Red Sox game in Boston. However, the surge was also an omen of the forthcoming obsolescence of the promotion by the Boston Red Sox. Ladies' Day games played an important role in the development of professional baseball as a business. This article uses a five-stage model to examine how Ladies' Day was instrumental in the evolution of game scheduling, using the first seven decades of the Red Sox franchise as a specific example. Each of these five stages served a distinct purpose to bridge an issue, which involved a different discounting strategy for admission as well as a separate rationale to encourage female attendance at the discount: • Stage 1 (1901–1908)—Bridge to popularity in Boston • Stage 2 (1923–1929)—Bridge to Sunday games • Stage 3 (1930–1935)—Bridge through the Great Depression • Stage 4 (1936–1947)—Bridge to night games • Stage 5 (1948–1965)—Bridge to demise of weekday daylight games This essay is structured into six sections. After the first section reviews the roots of Ladies' Day in Boston during the nineteenth century, the essay proceeds chronologically to explore...

The Impacts of the Coronavirus on the Economy of the United States.

We present a formal analysis of the macroeconomic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic in the U.S., China and the rest of the world. Given the uncertainty regarding the severity and time-path of the infections and related conditions, we examine three scenarios, ranging from a relatively moderate event to a disaster. The study considers a comprehensive list of causal factors affecting the impacts, including: mandatory closures and the gradual re-opening process; decline in workforce due to morbidity, mortality and avoidance behavior; increased demand for health care; decreased demand for public transportation and leisure activities; potential resilience through telework; increased demand for communication services; and increased pent-up demand. We apply a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, a state-of-the-art economy-wide modeling technique. It traces the broader economic ramifications of individual responses of producers and consumers through supply chains both within and across countries. We project that the net U.S. GDP losses from COVID-19 would range from $3.2 trillion (14.8%) to $4.8 trillion (23.0%) in a 2-year period for the three scenarios. U.S. impacts are estimated to be higher than those for China and the ROW in percentage terms. The major factor affecting the results in all three scenarios is the combination of Mandatory Closures and Partial Reopenings of businesses. These alone would have resulted in a 22.3% to 60.6% decrease in U.S. GDP across the scenarios. Pent-up Demand, generated from the inability to spend during the Closures/Reopenings, is the second most influential factor, significantly offsetting the overall negative impacts.

In Focus: Adjusted operations

Paul Marshall tells Andrew McClean about how Specsavers has committed to meeting pent-up demand by opening new practices and creating jobs.

Demand for Surgical Procedures Following COVID-19: The Need for Operational Strategies That Optimize Resource Utilization and Value.

Demand for Surgical Procedures Following COVID-19: The Need for Operational Strategies That Optimize Resource Utilization and Value.

Determinants of Voluntary Compliance: COVID-19 Mitigation

During the pre-vaccine period, the success of containing the spread of COVID-19 depends upon how communities respond to non-pharmaceutical mitigation policies such as social distancing, wearing of masks, retail and dining constraints, crowd limitation, and shelter-in-place orders. Of these policies, shelter-in-place and social distancing are of central importance. By using county-level mobility data as a measure of a community’s voluntary compliance with social distancing policies, this study found that counties who received strong state social distancing policy directives and who had a high pro-social character showed lower mobility (better social distancing) after states reopened from shelter-in-place orders. Counties that experienced a longer duration of shelter-in-place orders showed higher mobility (less social distancing), implying that the duration of the shelter-in-place order deteriorated social distancing response after reopening. This may be because reopening sent a “safe” signal to these counties or resulted in a response to the pent-up demand inducing higher mobility. The results indicate that implementing shelter-in-place and social distancing policies to slow down the transmission of COVID-19 were not necessarily effective in motivating a county to reduce mobility voluntarily. A county’s pro-social character and the duration of shelter-in-place order should be considered when designing COVID-19 mitigation policies.

The early impact of COVID-19 on mental health and community physical health services and their patients’ mortality in Cambridgeshire and Peterborough, UK

BackgroundCOVID-19 has affected social interaction and healthcare worldwide. MethodsWe examined changes in presentations and referrals to the primary provider of mental health and community health services in Cambridgeshire and Peterborough, UK (population ~0·86 million), plus service activity and deaths. We conducted interrupted time series analyses with respect to the time of UK “lockdown”, which was shortly before the peak of COVID-19 infections in this area. We examined changes in standardized mortality ratio for those with and without severe mental illness (SMI). ResultsReferrals and presentations to nearly all mental and physical health services dropped at lockdown, with evidence for changes in both supply (service provision) and demand (help-seeking). This was followed by an increase in demand for some services. This pattern was seen for all major forms of presentation to liaison psychiatry services, except for eating disorders, for which there was no evidence of change. Inpatient numbers fell, but new detentions under the Mental Health Act were unchanged. Many services shifted from face-to-face to remote contacts. Excess mortality was primarily in the over-70s. There was a much greater increase in mortality for patients with SMI, which was not explained by ethnicity. ConclusionsCOVID-19 has been associated with a system-wide drop in the use of mental health services, with some subsequent return in activity. “Supply” changes may have reduced access to mental health services for some. “Demand” changes may reflect a genuine reduction of need or a lack of help-seeking with pent-up demand. There has been a disproportionate increase in death among those with SMI during the pandemic.

Quantitative Easing and the Cost of Issuing UK Government Debt during SARS-CoV-2, Brexit and the Financial Crisis

I estimate the costs of issuing UK government debt by auction from the inception of the market in 1987 through the financial crisis and the phases of QE and into the current period of policy responses to SARS-CoV-2 Issuance costs decreased from the start of QE and have remained stable since, improving slightly in 2020 Variation in issuance costs is mostly explained by benchmark status, volatility and pent-up demand Cost estimates do not show a strong relation to maturity suggesting that no one set of gilt market investors is attracting habitat rents