Abstract
The article is dedicated to modelling the realization of pent-up demand based on the relationship between the incoming traffic of online booking platforms in the hospitality sector and the volume of tourist arrivals in the context of COVID-19 spread The authors conducted a study on the current trends in the hospitality sector in the aspect of the industry's functioning under COVID-19 The authors identified the development prospects for the hospitality sector as a component of the tourist services market in the context of easing restrictions in the countries of tourist arrivals The article established the specifics of the pent-up demand realization based on the results of the international flights renewal and the functioning of the hospitality industry under COVID-19 The authors analyzed the consumer requests on popular online booking services, Airbnb and Booking com, during the period of partial easing of the restrictions on the movement of tourists, starting from July 2020 Based on the conducted regression analysis, the density of communication between the incoming traffic of the online booking platforms in the hospitality sector and the volume of tourist arrivals in the context of the COVID-19 spread was established Based on the regression modelling, realization of demand in the hospitality sector was forecasted
Highlights
In the first ten months of 2020, there was a 72% drop in the international tourist arrivals, due to the global travel restrictions, falling incomes of consumers and the global fight to contain the COVID-19 virus
Despite some improvement recorded during the summer peak months for international tourism – July and August – the results were slightly worse in September and October, which was due to an increase in COVID-19 cases in the world, the re-introduction of travel restrictions, primarily in Europe, and the constant closure of borders in many directions, in particular in Asia and the Pacific
In scientific works that dedicated to the study of the hospitality sector, there's insufficient volume of scientific developments that analyze the impact of pandemics on the tourism market and the hotel business, so we focus on the key aspects of this issue
Summary
In the first ten months of 2020, there was a 72% drop in the international tourist arrivals, due to the global travel restrictions, falling incomes of consumers and the global fight to contain the COVID-19 virus. According to the latest data by the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO), for the period from January to October 2020, tourist destinations received 900 million fewer international tourists as compared to the same period back in 2019. This means a shortfall of USD 935 billion in exports from international tourism, which exceeds the losses that happened in 2009 due to the global economic crisis by more than 10 times. Australia has already announced that there are no plans to open borders to foreign tourists during 2021 (UNWTO, 2020)
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