Cash Flow Patterns Research Articles

A Method of Evaluating Profitability and Risk of Multiple Investments Applying Internal Rate of Return

In todays uncertain economic environment, economic risk is inherent in making large investments on manufacturing facilities. It is, therefore, practically meaningful to divide investment over multiple periods, reducing the risk of investment. Then, the cash-flow over the entire planning horizon would comprise positive inflow and negative outflow. In this case, in general, evaluation by internal rate of return (IRR) is not feasible, because multiple IRRs are involved. This paper deals with a problem of evaluating profitability, as well as risk, of investment alternatives made in multiple times of investment over the entire horizon. Typically, an additional investment is required after the initial one, for expanding manufacturing capacity or other reasons. The paper pays attention to a unit cash-flow over two periods, decomposing the total cash-flow into a series of unit cash-flow patterns. It is easy to evaluate profitability of a unit cash-flow by using IRR. The total cash-flow can be decomposed into the series of two types of unit cash-flows: an investment type one (negative-positive) and the borrowing type one (positive-negative). This paper, therefore, proposes a method in which only the borrowing type unit cash-flow is eliminated in the series by converting total cash-flow using capital interest rate. Then, a unique IRR can be obtained and the profitability is evaluated. Thus, the paper extends the method of IRR so that it may help decision making in complicated cash-flow pattern observed in practice.

Prediction of Operating Cash Flows: Further Evidence from Australia

This paper examines empirically the relative abilities of current operating cash flows (hereafter OCF) and earnings in predicting future operating cash flows in Australia. It extends prior Australian research on cash flow prediction ( Percy and Stokes 1992 ; Clinch, Sidhu and Sing 2002; Farshadfar, Ng and Brimble 2009) by examining future cash flow predictions for one‐, two‐ and three‐year‐ahead forecast horizons; incorporating additional contextual variables likely to affect the predictive association between current cash flows or earnings and future cash flows; and comparing cross‐sectional versus time series‐based prediction models to ascertain the relative superiority of one approach over the other. Regression results reveal that the cash flow‐based models are more accurate in predicting future operating cash flows than earnings‐based models. This result, however, is moderated by firm‐specific contextual factors like firm size, negative versus positive cash flow pattern, cash flow variability and firm operating cycle. Finally, a comparison between cross‐sectional and time series approaches reveals that the cross‐sectional model outperforms the time series model for both the operating cash flows and earnings models in most of the forecast years.

Firm Valuation: Tax Shields & Discount Rates

This paper proposes a new discounted cash flows’ valuation setup, and derives a general expression for the tax shields’ discount rate. This setup applies to any debt policy and any cash flow pattern. It only requires the equality at any time between the assets side and the liabilities side of the market value balance sheet, which has been introduced by Farber, Gillet and Szafarz (2006). This concept is extensively developed in the paper. This model encompasses all the usual setups that consider a fixed discount rate for the tax shields and require a fixed level of debt or a fixed leverage ratio, in particular Modigliani & Miller (1963) and Harris & Pringle (1985). It proposes an endogenized and integrated approach and modelizes the different market value discount rates as functions of both their relevant leverage ratio and the operating profitability of the firm. Among these rates are the cost of debt and the tax shields’ discount rate, which are usually assume constant. In this model, all the discount rates are likely to vary as soon as perpetuity cases are not considered. This setup introduces a new rate for the cost of levered equity without tax shields and develops the relation between the present value of tax shields and the market value of equity since debt tax shields entirely flow to equity. It only requires the risk free rate and the unlevered cost of capital as inputs but not the capital structure of the firm, as it tackles the circularity problem by considering an iterative approach. This fully dynamic model yields both theoretical and economic sensible results, and allows straightforward applications. It apparently solves the discrepancies of the usual setups and hopefully paves the way for further research.

Axiomatization of Residual Income and Generation of Financial Securities

This paper presents an axiomatization of residual income, aka excess profit, and illustrates how it may univocally engenders fixed-income or variable-income assets. In the first part it is shown that, depending on the relations between excess profit and the investor's excess wealth, a well-specified theory of residual income is generated: one is the standard theory, which historically traces back to Hamilton (1777) and Marshall (1890) and is a deep-rooted notion in economic theory, finance, and accounting. Another one is the systemic value added or lost-capital paradigm: introduced in Magni (2000, 2003), the theory is enfolded in Keynes's (1936) notion of user cost and is naturally generated by an arbitrage-theory perspective. In the second part, the paper reverts the usual analysis: instead of computing residual incomes profits from a pattern of cash flows, residual incomes are fixed first to derive vectors of cash flows. It is shown that variable- or fixed-income assets may be constructed on the basis of either theory starting from pre-determined growth rates for excess profit. In particular, zero-coupon bonds and coupon bonds traded in a capital market are shown to be deducted as equilibrium vectors of residual-income-based assets.

Aggregate Hedge Fund Flows and Asset Returns

Although several papers study the pattern of cash flows into individual hedge funds to examine how investors choose among different funds, little is known at the macro level about how hedge fund investors as a group respond to aggregate fund returns and market wide price movements. This paper analyzes the pattern in quarterly aggregate flows into the hedge fund sector from 1994 to 2007. We document several main results. First, we find a significant and positive relation between aggregate flows and past aggregate hedge fund returns, indicating that hedge fund investors as a group chase past aggregate performance. Second, we report a significant and positive relation between aggregate flows and contemporaneous aggregate hedge fund returns. Third, we find marginal evidence on a negative relation between aggregate fund flows and subsequent hedge fund returns, suggesting that hedge fund investors as a group are unable to successfully time hedge fund returns. We also find that investors put money into the hedge fund sector following high stock market returns and low returns on Treasury bills, while stock and bond market returns are not related to past aggregate hedge fund flows.

Cash Flow Patterns as a Proxy for Firm Life Cycle

This study develops a firm life cycle proxy using cash flow patterns. The patterns provide a parsimonious indicator of life cycle stage that is free from distributional assumptions (i.e., uniformity). The proxy identifies differential behavior in the persistence and convergence patterns of profitability. For example, return on net operating assets (RNOA) does not mean-revert (spread of seven percent after five years between mature and decline firms) when examined by life cycle stage, which has implications for growth rates and forecast horizons. Further, determinants of future profitability such as asset turnover and profit margin are differentially successful in generating increases in profitability conditional on life cycle stage. Finally, investors do not fully incorporate the information contained in cash flow patterns and as a result, undervalue mature firms. The cash flow proxy is a robust tool that has applications in analysis, forecasting, valuation, and as a control variable for future research.

Why Do We Still Put Up With WACC?

WACC, being designed for situations with perpetual constant leverage, overestimates the NPV when the project's life is finite. The reason is that it sets the weight of the PV'ed tax shields at too high a level initially and ignores the fact that this weight should fall even further as the project matures. As a result, initial risk is underestimated, and subsequent further rises in risk are overlooked. For realistic projects of 5-7 years the overstatement of the PV of the tax shield typically exceeds 50%. One needs 10-year horizons for the error to drop to 40%, and 20 years for a drop to 25%. In contrast, ANPV can correctly handle not only any deterministic cash flow pattern or capital structure, but, after a minor tweak in the programming, also borrowing strategies where the loan amount changes proportionally with gross present value - the situation supposedly best solved with WACC: one just needs to apply NPV() twice.

A Dozen Consistent CAPM-Related Valuation Models - So Why Use an Incorrect One?

This paper focuses on applications of the CAPM in capital budgeting and in valuation of mispriced financial assets. Most textbooks in finance do not warn against a common pitfall in discounting expected cash flows by risk adjusted discount rates that are conceptually inconsistent with the CAPM. Betas computed from returns based on investment cost rather than on market value, may give systematically inappropriate discount rates and incorrect present values for non-zero NPVs and mispriced assets. The paper provides a self contained collection of a dozen consistent CAPM-related methods, that all give correct valuation results. The models include approaches based on certainty equivalents, equilibrium and disequilibrium required discount rates, simplified discounting rules based on absence of arbitrage for particular cash flow patterns, as well as required adaptions to make valuations from more advanced valuation methods consistent with correct CAPM procedures. Derivations of the valuation methods are shown in an appendix. A running base case numerical example illustrates the various procedures. Further illustrations are provided by a textbook example that also demonstrates how some simple procedures work for more complex cases than previously recognized. EFM classification codes: 220 (310, 370) JEL classifications: G31, G12, G11

Cash Flow Control of New Jersey Interstate Needs

In 2002, a study assessed the structural condition of New Jersey's Interstate network and determined its rehabilitation needs for the next 30 years. Deflection testing was performed on approximately 750 testing miles, and cores and bores were also taken. In addition, a ground penetration radar survey and a limited visual inspection were carried out on the entire length of the Interstate network, including the associated ramps. The data were collected to complement the data available in the Capital Program Management State Pavement Management System, such as the International Roughness Index data, which the state collects every 2 years. In addition to field testing, traffic and cost data were gathered from existing sources within the New Jersey Department of Transportation (NJDOT) and used in the rehabilitation analysis. Furthermore, by NJDOT's request, the cost of reconstructing all inside and outside shoulders to the same structural capacity as the traffic lanes was estimated. The results of the study indicated that major spending would be required in the first few years of the analysis period, followed by less spending in subsequent years. However, NJDOT's desired cash flow pattern involved beginning with lower levels of funding and then increasing spending in latter years. As a consequence, additional analyses were run to consider whether intermediate treatments could be performed in order to meet this desired cash flow. This paper presents an overview of the Interstate Rehabilitation Needs Study along with a discussion about how the desired cash flow was achieved.

Performance Measurement and Appraisal of Private Equity Investments Relative to Public Equity Markets

In this paper we investigate the risk return relationship of Private Equity (PE) relative to Public Market Equity (PM) investments to assess the adequateness of PE’s return premium. We analyze cash flows of PE projects gross of fees and any other externalities. Our analysis is based on simulated PM investments, mimicking the cash flow patterns of the PE investments. The comparison of alternative cash flow based performance measures reveals a substantial impact of the reinvestment hypothesis. Prior to any risk adjustment, PE investments outperform their PM counterparts with varying levels depending on the chosen benchmark (broad, industry specific, local). Next we compare standard risk measures and find downside deviation and shortfall to better describe the characteristics of not normally distributed PE investment returns than standard deviation. Thus, it is not surprising to observe substantially higher Sharpe Ratios for PM relative to PE investments. We adjust the Sharpe Ratio measuring risk in terms of downside deviation and still observe underperformance of PE relative to PM investments, with very heterogeneous results regarding industry, stage and size of the investments. Last we introduce Omega as alternative risk adjusted performance measure, because its risk definition better suits the characteristics of PE investments. For our PE sample we observe adequate excess returns over public stock markets given the higher shortfall risk. Our findings question the existence of an illiquidity puzzle on the fund level. Overall PE returns are highly skewed and very heterogeneous. We find later stage to be more attractive than early stage investments due to higher risk adjusted returns. As the PE investment universe is on average of poor quality compared to public equity markets, investment selection ability is of crucial importance.

현금흐름을 포함하는 회분식 공정-저장조 망구조의 최적설계

This paper presents an integrated analysis of production and financing decisions. We assume that a cash storage unit is installed to manage the cash flows related with production activities such as raw material procurement, process operating setup, Inventory holding cost and finished product sales. Temporarily financial investments are allowed for more profit. The production plant is modeled by the Batch-Storage Network with Recycle Streams in Yi and Reklaitis (2003). The objective function of the optimization is minimizing the opportunity costs of annualized capital investment and cash/material inventory while maximizing stockholder`s benefit. No depletion of all the material and cash storage units is major constraints of the optimization. A novel production and inventory analysis formulation, the PSW(Periodic Square Wave) model, provides useful expressions for the upper/lower bounds and average level of the cash and material inventory holdups. The expressions for the Kuhn-Tucker conditions of the optimization problem can be reduced to two subproblems and analytical lot sizing equations under a mild assumption about the cash flow pattern of stockholder`s dividend. The first subproblem is a separable concave minimization network flow problem whose solution yields the average material flow rates through the networks. The second subproblem determines the decisions about financial Investment. Finally, production and financial transaction lot sizes and startup times can be determined by analytical expressions as far as the average flow rates are calculated. The optimal production lot and storage sizes considering financial factors are smaller than those without such consideration. An illustrative example is presented to demonstrate the results obtainable using this approach.

Applicability of the Classic WACC Concept in Practice

ABSTRACT A large percentage of companies use the discounted cash flow (DCF) approach as the primary technique for investment/project evaluation and the capital budgeting process. This approach requires forecasting the detailed cash flow of the project under evaluation and then discounting the resulting cash flow to the present value (Net Present Value–NPV) using an appropriate discount rate. The discount rate commonly used represents the Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) of the firm. There is no scarcity of literature on this subject as the concept has been around for the last 50 years or so. Although most analysts believe the concept is simple and very well known, the irony is that its misinterpretation and misuse prevails. There are many versions of the WACC equation and each is specific to a certain cash flow. Therefore, using the classic WACC relationship in all cases may result in the calculation of an overly optimistic NPV. Depending on the cash flow pattern, the investment may show a positive NPV at the classic WACC but it will actually be losing equity. This paper highlights (a) pitfalls and misuses of the WACC, (b) interdependence between types of cash flow and WACC, (c) assumptions behind the WACC and whether these assumptions are realistic, and (d) alternative approaches to arrive at the correct net present value (NPV). Company CEOs, management, analysts, and other investors using the WACC for investment decisions need to be fully aware of its pitfalls and misuses. RESUMEN. Un gran porcentaje de empresas usan el enfoque del flujo de caja descontado (DCF–discounted cash flow), como la técnica principal para evaluar las inversiones/proyectos y el proceso de elaboración del presupuesto de capital. Este enfoque exige la proyección detallada del flujo de caja del proyecto bajo análisis y, a continuación, el redescuento del flujo de caja resultante al valor actual-Valor Actual Neto (Net Present Value–NPV) utilizando una tasa de redescuento apropiada. La tasa de descuento comúnmente utilizada representa el Costo de Capital Medio Ponderado (Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) de la empresa. No falta literatura a este respecto, ya que el concepto ha existido ya alrededor de 50 años. Aunque la mayoría de los analistas creen que el mismo es simple y muy conocido, irónicamente, lo que prevalece es su mala interpretación y uso equivocado. Existen muchas versiones sobre la ecuación WACC, y cada una se identifica con un flujo de caja específico. Consecuentemente, el uso de la relación WACC clásica puede resultar, en todos los casos, en un cálculo de NPV exageradamente optimista. Dependiendo del tipo de flujo de caja, la inversión puede mostrar un NPV positivo con un WACC clásico, cuando en realidad estará perdiendo patrimonio. Este documento coloca en destaque (a) escollos y mal uso del WACC, (b) interdependencia entre el tipo de flujo de caja y el WACC, (c) presunciones por detrás del WACC, y si ellas son realistas, y (d) mostrar enfoques alternativos para llegar al valor actual neto correcto (NPV). El CEO de la empresa, su gerencia, analistas y otros inversores usarán el WACC para tomar decisiones inherentes a la inversión. RESUMO. Uma grande porcentagem das empresas usa a abordagem do fluxo de caixa descontado (DCF) como técnica básica de avaliação de investimentos/projetos e do processo de orçamentação de capital. Essa abordagem requer que se preveja o fluxo de caixa detalhado do projeto sob avaliação e, depois, desconte o fluxo de caixa resultante para obter o valor presente líquido (NPV) usando uma taxa de desconto apropriada. A taxa de desconto geralmente usada representa o Custo de Capital Médio Ponderado (WACC–Weighted Average Cost of Capital) da empresa. A literatura sobre este tema é abundante, já que o conceito existe há uns 50 anos. Embora a maioria dos analistas considere o conceito simples e bem conhecido, o fato é que erros de interpretação e utilização predominam. Existem muitas vers$oTes da equação do WACC, cada uma específica a certo fluxo de caixa. Portanto, aplicar a relação WACC clássica a todos os casos pode resultar em cálculos de NPVs otimistas demais. Dependendo do padrão de fluxo de caixa, o investimento pode exibir um NPV positivo no WACC clássico, quando na verdade estará perdendo patrimônio. Este artigo realça (a) as armadilhas e usos equivocados do WACC, (b) as interdependências entre tipo de fluxo de caixa e WACC, (c) pressupostos por trás do WACC e se esses pressupostos são realistas, e (d) mostra abordagens alternativas para se chegar ao valor presente líquido (NPV) correto. Visa os CEOs das empresas, a gerência, os analistas e utros investidores que usam o WACC nas decisões de investimentos.

On the evaluation of ‘saving-consumption’ plans

Knowledge of the distribution function of the stochastically compounded value of a series of future (positive and/or negative) payments is needed for solving several problems in an insurance or finance environment, see e.g. Dhaene et al. (2002a,b). In Kaas et al. (2000), convex lower-bound approximations for such a sum have been proposed. In case of changing signs of the payments however, the distribution function or the quantiles of the lower bound are not easy to determine, as the approximation for the random compounded value of the payments will in general not be a comonotonic sum.In this paper, we present a method for determining accurate and easy computable approximations for risk measures of such a sum, in case one first has positive payments (savings), followed by negative ones (consumptions).This particular cashflow pattern is observed in ‘saving–consumption’ plans. In such plans, a person saves money on a regular basis for a certain number of years. The amount available at the end of this period is then used to generate a yearly pension for a fixed number of years. Using the results of this paper we can find accurate and easy to compute answers to questions such as: ‘What is the minimal required yearly savings effort, α, during a fixed number of years, such that we will be able to meet, with a probability of at least (1−ε), a given consumption pattern during the withdrawal period?’

Cash flow patterns in listed South African industrial companies

A relatively simple way to analyse a company’s financial status is to examine the positive or negative signs of its cash flow patterns and to link certain characteristics to selected cash flow patterns. In this article, the frequencies of cash flow patterns in South African listed industrial companies are examined for a single financial period, as well as for three different cumulative periods, ending in 1993, 1996 and 2002 respectively. Mature companies, i.e. those with positive cash flow from operating activities, negative cash flow from investing activities and negative cash flow from financing activities, were identified as the most frequently occurring pattern during the selected periods. The study shows that the mature companies had the highest median amongst the more regular cash flow patterns, for the net profit percentage, for the cash flow from operating activities before the payment of dividends as a percentage of sales and for dividend payout. The study also reveals that companies in their growth phase had the highest medians for investment outflow, for sales growth and growth in total assets, for accounts payable and inventories. Start‐up companies had the highest medians for inflow from financing activities and for total debt to total assets.

Timing of investments in oligopoly under uncertainty: A framework for numerical analysis

We present a modeling framework for the analysis of investments in an oligopoly market for a homogenous commodity. The demand evolves stochastically and the firms carry out investment projects in order to adjust their production cost functions or production capacities. The model is formulated as a discrete time state-space game where the firms use feedback strategies. The firms are assumed to move sequentially to ensure a unique Markov-perfect Nash equilibrium. Once the equilibrium has been solved, Monte Carlo simulation is used to form probability distributions for the firms' cash flow patterns and accomplished investments. Such information can be used to value firms operating in an oligopoly market. An example of the model is given in a duopoly market. The example illustrates the trade-off between the value of flexibility and economies of scale under competitive interaction.

European Private Equity Funds - A Cash Flow Based Performance Analysis

This paper presents a cash flow based analysis of the return and risk characteristics of European Private Equity Funds. For that purpose a comprehensive data set has been provided by Thomson Venture Economics. We document the typical time pattern of cash flows for European private equity funds. Specifically, it is recorded that the average European private equity fund draws down 23% of total committed capital on the vintage date; within the first three years 60% of the total commitment is draw down. It turned out that limited partners on average get back the money invested slightly after 7 years. Over the time period from 1980 to June 2003, we calculate various performance measures. For that purpose we use only liquidated funds or funds with a small residual net asset value. Under this restriction one specific data set consists of 200 funds. We document a cash flow based IRR of 12.7% and an average excess-IRR of 4.5% relative to the MSCI Europe equity index. In order to circumvent the problems associated with the IRR-approach we focus on the alternative public market equivalent approach. There it is assumed that cash flows generated by a private equity fund are reinvested in a public market benchmark index. We record an average PME of 0.96 and a value-weighted average PME of 1.04. Based on the PME-approach we develop a viable methodology to estimate the return and risk characteristics of European private equity funds and the correlation structure to public markets. As a benchmark index we used the MSCI Europe Equity Index as well as the J.P. Morgan Government Bond Index. Over the period 1980-2003 private equity funds generated an overperformance with respect to the bond index and two of our three samples an underperformance with respect to the equity index. Over the period 1989-2003 private equity funds generated an overperformance with respect to both indexes. Finally, we analyze to what extent performance measures are associated with specific funds characteristics, like size, payback period and vintage year, respectively. While the payback period and the vintage year seem to have a statistically significant influence on a fund's performance, the results with respect to size are inconclusive.

TECHNICAL NOTE—THE INTERNAL RATE OF RETURN (IRR) AS A FINANCIAL INDICATOR

In their recent paper Tang and Tang (2003, pp. 69–78) revive a longstanding controversy—net present value (NPV) versus internal rate of return (IRR)—by characterizing the NPV as an economic indicator and the IRR as a financial one. The paper implies that this distinction justifies ranking financial alternatives by ranking their IRRs. In the current article, it is argued that the direct IRR ranking does not necessarily provide the same evaluation environment—and therefore a fair comparison—for each alternative involved, and that the incremental ranking approach is needed to remedy this shortcoming. The article also points out that Tang and Tang's numerical examples of simple projects with one sign change in their cash flow patterns do not address the problem of multiple IRRs, which consequently renders Tang and Tang's ranking approach dysfunctional. It is demonstrated that the concept of a true rate of return, substituting for the non-performing IRR and applied in conjunction with the incremental approach, provides an adequate tool for ranking mutually exclusive projects or a project's technical or financial alternatives.

Economic rates of return: an extension

This paper extends the cash-based rate of return models of Ijiri (1978) and Salamon (1982) by allowing two classes of assets and three classes of sources of funds. The use of debt as a source of funds permits a return on equity calculation. Subsequently, the return on equity calculation is modified to obtain a return on total assets profitability measure. These extensions lead to a solution of the cash-flow observability problem first noted by Stark (1987). A second analytical result shows an equivalence between the accounting rate of return and the estimated rate of return developed in this paper if a particular cash-flow pattern is used.

The Return-Stages Valuation Model and the Expectations within a Firm's P/B and P/E Ratios

The return-stages model can quantify the expectations facing a firm from its price-to-book (P/B) and price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios. We illustrate two implications of the model. First, a firm’s P/B and P/E ratios can predict the future cash flow pattern earned by a firm. Second, the operating performance consistent with a given stock return differs across four groups of firms: Growth Firms, Mature Firms, Turnaround Firms, and Declining Firms. Our results imply that a firm’s stock return depends, in part, on how its operating performance compares to the expectations defined by its P/B and P/E ratios.

How Large Should Your Commitment to Private Equity Really Be?

The authors start by observing that private equity, as an asset class, has a unique pattern of cash flows which makes it difficult to match an investor9s asset allocation target with their actual investments in private equity: Commitments are typically drawn down over a number of years and distributions usually begin coming back before all the capital is called. This makes it difficult for investors to achieve their long-term asset allocation goal in this asset class. They then discuss an investment model that provides a more accurate projection of future private equity exposure based on a number of variables and industry standard cash flows. They show how to plan commitments to private equity based on that model, which was constructed using parameters judged conservative, but realistic for the current and anticipated market environment.