Sustainable Development Pathways Research Articles

Sustainable performance in public buildings supported by daylighting technology

Many towns and villages around the world have implemented new technologies within lighting recently because there is an urgent need to save electricity, operational and maintenance costs. Taking into account recent global issues such as global warming, climate change, COVID-19 and increasing electricity bills, many countries have changed their plans for saving electricity by implementing more efficient, sustainable strategies. A global perspective and classification of the main lighting aspects necessary to implement sustainable daylight performance in public buildings is presented here. Qualitative research methodology is utilized in this article in order to clarify how daylighting strategies in public buildings contribute to the achievement of sustainable daylight performance. Objectives for achieving integrated pathways for sustainable development are detailed, related to natural lighting environment improvement, architecture, style and human health, and supported by a balanced organizational structure in order to achieve zero-energy buildings. The article also emphasizes the significance for the future of ensuring acceptable lighting through best lighting practices, providing advice through optimal lighting strategies in an efficient, realistic and responsible way. This lighting approach will serve to help in achieving nearly zero-energy buildings as a form of sustainably designed buildings. Finally, the article summarizes the most appropriate techniques for improving the daylight performance in public buildings, and an optimized human eyesight system is presented, based on the visual economy as a model of sustainability.

A cleaner snow future mitigates Northern Hemisphere snowpack loss from warming

Light-absorbing particles (LAP) deposited on seasonal snowpack can result in snow darkening, earlier snowmelt, and regional climate change. However, their future evolution and contributions to snowpack change relative to global warming remain unclear. Here, using Earth System Model simulations, we project significantly reduced black carbon deposition by 2081-2100, which reduces the December-May average LAP-induced radiative forcing in snow over the Northern Hemisphere from 1.3 Wm−2 during 1995-2014 to 0.65 (SSP126) and 0.49 (SSP585) Wm−2. We quantify separately the contributions of climate change and LAP evolution on future snowpack and demonstrate that projected LAP changes in snow over the Tibetan Plateau will alleviate future snowpack loss due to climate change by 52.1 ± 8.0% and 8.0 ± 1.1% at the end of the century for the two scenarios, mainly due to reduced black carbon contamination. Our findings highlight a cleaner snow future and its benefits for future water supply from snowmelt especially under the sustainable development pathway of SSP126.

Predictive Study on Extreme Precipitation Trends in Henan and Their Impact on Population Exposure

This study employs precipitation data sets from historical trials on 20 CMIP6 global climate models and four shared socioeconomic pathway scenario trials (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) to predict trends in extreme precipitation changes in Henan Province quantitatively, while ascertaining the risk of population exposure to extreme precipitation in this area. The capacity of the CMIP6 models to simulate extreme precipitation indices from 1985 to 2014 is assessed using CN05.1 daily precipitation observational data. The correlation coefficients of the multi-model ensemble median’s simulation of the extreme precipitation indices are approximately 0.8, with a standard deviation ratio closer to 1 compared with the single models, demonstrating superior modeling ability. Analyses using the multi-model ensemble median demonstrate an overall increase in the total amount, frequency, and intensity of extreme precipitation in Henan throughout this century, particularly in its southern regions; in the mid-century high-emission scenario (SSP5-8.5), the maximum increase in annual total precipitation exceeds 150 mm, and it can be over 250 mm in the late-century period. For the entire province, the maximum five-day precipitation increase relative to the historical period is nearly 25 mm in the late-century SSP5-8.5 scenario. The spatiotemporal concentration of precipitation will significantly increase, heightening the risk of flood disasters. Comparative analysis reveals that, under the same population prediction, the total population exposure will be higher in high radiative forcing scenarios than in low radiative forcing scenarios, especially in Kaifeng City, where the total population exposure in SSP1 and SSP5-8.5 exceeds that in SSP1-2.6 by 2 million person-days. However, in the same radiative forcing scenario, the total population exposure in the development pathway dominated by traditional fossil fuels (SSP5) will not be significantly higher than that in the sustainable development pathway (SSP1), indicating that population activity in this century will not be the main contributor to changes in total exposure. Overall, for Henan, in the same population forecast scenario, population exposure to extreme precipitation will gradually rise with global warming.

Economic Analysis and Policies for the Environment, Natural Resources, and Energy

Blueprinting sustainable development pathways is by no means plain sailing [...]

Investigating the dynamic decoupling relationship between regional social economy and lake water environment: The application of DPSIR-Extended Tapio decoupling model

The water environmental problems associated with rapid socioeconomic growth have drawn widespread attention from the government and the public. Revealing the decoupling mechanism between the social economy and lake water environment has become an important breakthrough point to seek the pathways of sustainable economic development. To investigate the decoupling process of the social economy‒lake water environmental system, this study proposes a comprehensive evaluation model, which integrates the Driving force-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) model, projection pursuit method, and Tapio decoupling model; and then applies it to the case study of Hefei City and Lake Chaohu in China in 2021–2035. Three typical scenarios of current, social economy, and water environment are designed and simulated using the DPSIR model to evaluate the dynamic decoupling relationships under various development patterns. We found that the DPSIR indexes had a fluctuating upward trend from 2009 to 2020, with a synchronous improvement trend of the social economy and lake water environment. Meanwhile, the Tapio decoupling analysis showed that the decoupling relationships between socioeconomic driver forces, response strategies and the status of lake water environment was mostly strongly decoupled and weakly decoupled during 2009–2020. However, there was still an inconsistency between the improvement rate of the lake water environment and the increase rate of the response strategies. During the 2021–2035 simulation period, the DPSIR indexes of all scenarios depicts an overall increasing trend. The decoupling states of S&I-D&P and S&I–R generally tend to be consistent under three regulation scenarios. Among them, the water environment scenario outperforms other scenarios, and the social economy scenario performs worst. Overall, the decoupling of the social economy and lake water environment can attribute to both the transformation of socioeconomic development patterns and the increase of water environmental protection efforts.

Towards sustainable rural communities

The future of rural communities relies on managing knowledge trasnfer and sharing in order to advance towards sustainable rural development. Investing in knowledge sources and management helps rural organisations to drive social growth, fostering cohesive and socially open rural communities. Rural communities may address a knowledge-driven pathway for sustainable rural development. Rural actors and stakeholders contribute to shaping wealthy rural communities by employing the potential of knowledge management, transfer and sharing. Regulatory frameworks support collaboration within rural communities that benefit of knowledge management issues and practices.

The impact of embodied land flow in interregional trade on carbon emissions in China

The interregional flow of land embodied in remote linkages exerts a significant impact on land use and transfer of carbon emissions from land use patterns among regions, underscoring the importance of investigating this process for sustainable land utilization. This study quantifies the embodied land flow and its impact on carbon emissions in China, and further clarifies its characteristics by constructing the contribution and dependency index. The results show that more economically developed regions occupy land in less developed regions through embodied land flow. The flow of various land types is heterogeneous across regions, reflecting disparities in regional endowments. The developed coastal provinces of Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai all transfer more than 10 million tons of carbon emissions to other regions. The average levels of contributions to and dependence on embodied land flow in Chinese provinces increased from 20.51% to 23.13% in 2012 to 27.14% and 27.23% in 2017, respectively. This suggests that interregional land system linkages have strengthened and land supply and demand have intensified. Furthermore, the embodied land flow and its associated transfer of carbon emissions from land use can be assessed to ascertain the entities responsible for land consumption and carbon emissions. This study underscores the significance of examining the interplay between land use and carbon emissions in shaping sustainable development pathways.

PM2.5 Exposure and Associated Premature Mortality to 2100 in China Under Climate and Socioeconomic Change Scenarios

AbstractReducing PM2.5‐related premature mortality is essential for health‐related sustainable development. China, one of the most populated and PM2.5 polluted developing countries in the world, is striving to be in the vanguard for meeting this target. However, the global chemical transport methods for future PM2.5 projections are difficult to use and computationally expensive and may import measurement uncertainty into regional exposure assessments, thus bringing challenges to policy making. Here, we proposed an integrated PM2.5 projection model framework based on regional land use, emission, climate and population simulations. The ambient PM2.5 exposure and associated premature mortality to 2100 in China at a scale of 10 × 10 km were projected and compared under different development pathways. Ambient PM2.5 exposure is expected to peak in recent decades (2030–2060) with mean values ranging from 32.72 to 35.11 μg/m3 for different pathways, while associated premature mortality are projected to decrease (2273.9–778.59) (in thousands) over time (2030–2100). The change in the emission scenario with significant CH4 and NMVOC increases could lead to the greatest increase in average PM2.5 exposure (4.03 μg/m3), while the decrease (−0.90 μg/m3) was linked to BC, SO2, CH4, and NMVOC decreases. Meanwhile, premature deaths decrease (15–226,424) for most projection periods when land use, emissions, and population data were separately replaced with RCP2.6‐SSP1 data. Land use impacts in socioeconomic change scenarios could be moderate in certain regions. Therefore, the sustainable development pathway of the RCP2.6‐SSP1 scenario should be prioritized in China for future development considering both environmental protection and health sustainability.

Youth Unemployment and Sustainable Development Pathways in China after the COVID-19 Pandemic

Youth Unemployment and Sustainable Development Pathways in China after the COVID-19 Pandemic

Multifaceted Role of Nanomaterials in Modulating In Vitro Seed Germination, Plant Morphogenesis, Metabolism and Genetic Engineering.

The agricultural practices of breeding, farm management and cultivation have improved production, to a great extent, in order to meet the food demands of a growing population. However, the newer challenges of climate change, global warming, and nutritional quality improvement will have to be addressed under a new scenario. Plant biotechnology has emerged as a reliable tool for enhancing crop yields by protecting plants against insect pests and metabolic engineering through the addition of new genes and, to some extent, nutritional quality improvement. Plant tissue culture techniques have provided ways for the accelerated clonal multiplication of selected varieties with the enhanced production of value-added plant products to increase modern agriculture. The in vitro propagation method has appeared as a pre-eminent approach for the escalated production of healthy plants in relatively shorter durations, also circumventing seasonal effects. However, there are various kinds of factors that directly or indirectly affect the efficiency of in vitro regeneration like the concentration and combination of growth regulators, variety/genotype of the mother plant, explant type, age of seedlings and other nutritional factors, and elicitors. Nanotechnology as one of the latest and most advanced approaches in the material sciences, and can be considered to be very promising for the improvement of crop production. Nanomaterials have various kinds of properties because of their small size, such as an enhanced contact surface area, increased reactivity, stability, chemical composition, etc., which can be employed in plant sciences to alter the potential and performance of plants to improve tissue culture practices. Implementing nanomaterials with in vitro production procedures has been demonstrated to increase the shoot multiplication potential, stress adaptation and yield of plant-based products. However, nanotoxicity and biosafety issues are limitations, but there is evidence that implies the promotion and further exploration of nanoparticles in agriculture production. The incorporation of properly designed nanoparticles with tissue culture programs in a controlled manner can be assumed as a new pathway for sustainable agriculture development. The present review enlists different studies in which treatment with various nanoparticles influenced the growth and biochemical responses of seed germination, as well as the in vitro morphogenesis of many crop species. In addition, many studies suggest that nanoparticles can be useful as elicitors for elevating levels of important secondary metabolites in in vitro cultures. Recent advancements in this field also depict the suitability of nanoparticles as a promising carrier for gene transfer, which show better efficiency than traditional Agrobacterium-mediated delivery. This review comprehensively highlights different in vitro studies that will aid in identifying research gaps and provide future directions for unexplored areas of research in important crop species.

Navigating Educational Pathways for Sustainable Development: A Comparative Analysis of ALECSO and UNESCO in The Arab Region

This comparative analysis delves into the educational strategies for sustainable development as employed by ALECSO and UNESCO within the Arab region. The study utilizes a mixed methods approach to dissect and compare the educational policies, strategies, and initiatives implemented by these two prominent organizations. Central to this examination is the contrast between ALECSO’s region-specific strategies, which are intricately designed to resonate with the cultural, political, and social fabric of the Arab world, and UNESCO’s more globally oriented approach, which is characterized by its adherence to international standards and norms. One of the study's critical arguments is the varying effectiveness of regionally tailored strategies versus globally standardized approaches in addressing the unique educational needs and sustainability goals of the Arab region. This is particularly evident in the way ALECSO’s initiatives are closely aligned with local contexts, possibly offering more practical and culturally sensitive solutions. In contrast, UNESCO’s strategies, while globally comprehensive, might not fully address specific regional nuances. The research further critiques the impact and effectiveness of the programs initiated by both organizations. This aspect is crucial in highlighting the strengths and weaknesses inherent in their respective approaches to promoting sustainable development through education. The study identifies key areas where ALECSO and UNESCO have succeeded, as well as areas where improvements are necessary. This critical assessment provides a nuanced understanding of how each organization contributes to the development of sustainable educational practices within the Arab region. Emphasizing the significance of contextually relevant educational strategies, the study advocates for adaptive and collaborative policymaking. This approach is posited as essential for enhancing the efficacy of future educational strategies for sustainable development, particularly in regions with distinct cultural and socio-political contexts like the Arab world. The findings of this study have broader implications, contributing significantly to the discourse on sustainable development in education. By offering in-depth insights into the roles and contributions of ALECSO and UNESCO, the study underscores the importance of aligning educational strategies with regional needs while also considering global sustainability goals.

A comparative environmental Life Cycle Assessment study of hydrogen fuel, electricity and diesel fuel for public buses

Hydrogen fuel and electricity are energy carriers viewed as promising alternatives for the modernization and decarbonization of public bus transportation fleets. In order to choose development pathways that will lead transportation systems toward a sustainable future, the authors developed an environmental model based on the Life Cycle Assessment approach. The model tested the impact of energy carrier consumption during driving as well as the electricity origin employed to power electric buses and produce hydrogen. Energy sources such as wind, solar, waste and grid electricity were investigated. The scope of the study included the life cycles of the energy carrier and the necessary infrastructure. The results were presented from two perspectives: the total environmental impact and global warming potential. In order to create a roadmap, an original method for choosing sustainable development pathways was prepared. It was shown that the modernization of conventional bus fleets using hydrogen and electrical pathways can provide significant environmental benefits from both perspectives, but especially in terms of global warming potential. It was emphasized that attention should be paid to the use of low- and zero-emission energy sources, because their impact often strongly influenced the final environmental judgment. The energy carrier consumption also had a strong impact on the results obtained, and that is why efforts should be made to reduce it. In addition, it was confirmed that hydrogen and electricity production systems based on electricity generated by a waste-to-energy plant could be an environmentally reasonable dual solution for both sustainable waste management and meeting transport needs.

Exploring sustainable electricity system development pathways in South America’s MERCOSUR sub-region

We explore sustainable electricity system development pathways in South America’s MERCOSUR sub-region under a range of techno-economic, infrastructural, and policy forces. The MERCOSUR sub-region includes Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Uruguay, and Paraguay, which represent key electricity generation, consumption, and trade dynamics on the continent. We use a power system planning model to co-optimize investment and operations of generation, storage, and transmission facilities out to 2050. Our results show that, under business-as-usual conditions, wind and solar contribute more than half of new generation capacity by 2050, though this requires substantial expansion of natural gas-based capacity. While new hydropower appears to be less cost-competitive, the existing high capacity of hydropower provides critically important flexibility to integrate the wind and solar and to avoid further reliance on more expensive or polluting resources (e.g., natural gas). Over 90% emission cut by 2050 could be facilitated mostly by enhanced integration (predominantly after 2040) of wind, solar, and battery storage with 11%–28% additional cost, whereas enhanced expansion of hydropower reduces the cost of low-carbon transition, suggesting trade-off opportunities between saving costs and environment in selecting the clean energy resources. Achieving high emission reduction goals will also require enhanced sub-regional electricity trade, which could be mostly facilitated by existing interconnection capacities.

Sustainable development pathways of China's wind power industry under uncertainties: Perspective from economic benefits and technical potential

Wind power is crucial to China's and even the world's efforts to address climate change. However, the development pathways of China's wind power industry (WPI) remain unclear, hindering the holistic layout of China's wind power development plan. This study constructs a system dynamics model to simulate the economic benefits and technical potential of China's WPI under various uncertainties, thus informing sustainable development pathways. Multi-scenario simulation results show that: 1) Under the BAU scenario, the investment returns of wind power operators are not ideal. It is necessary for China's WPI to further improve the wind power generation efficiency or adopt a more effective market-oriented policy mechanism. 2) Compared with the BAU scenario, the economic benefits and technological potential under the technology changes scenario increase by an average of 120% and 42%, respectively, verifying that technological advancement is the most effective way to drive China's WPI sustainable development. 3) Although macro-environment fluctuations have a negative impact on economic benefits, they can stimulate the improvement of technological potential to a certain extent. The study allows an understanding of China's WPI long-term sustainable development pathways under various uncertainties, thus helping to provide a reference for policy-making institutions.

Exploration and mitigation of green lean six sigma barriers: a higher education institutions perspective

PurposeThe study aims to identify Green Lean Six Sigma (GLSS) barriers in the context of Higher Education Institutions (HEIs) and prioritize them for executing the GLSS approach.Design/methodology/approachA systematic literature review (SLR) was used to identify a total of 14 barriers, which were then verified for greater relevance by the professional judgments of industrial personnel. Moreover, many removal measures strategies are also recommended in this study. Furthermore, this work also utilizes Gray Relational Analysis (GRA) to prioritize the identified GLSS barriers.FindingsThe study reveals that training and education, continuous assessment of SDG, organizational culture, resources and skills to facilitate implementation, and assessment of satisfaction and welfare of the employee are the most significant barriers to implementing this approach.Research limitations/implicationsThe present study provides an impetus for practitioners and managers to embrace the GLSS strategy through a wide-ranging understanding and exploring these barriers. In this case, the outcomes of this research, and in particular the GRA technique presented by this work, can be used by managers and professionals to rank the GLSS barriers and take appropriate action to eliminate them.Practical implicationsThe ranking of GLSS barriers gives top officials of HEIs a very clear view to effectively and efficiently implementing GLSS initiatives. The outcomes also show training and education, sustainable development goals and organizational culture as critical barriers. The findings of this study provide an impetus for managers, policymakers and consultants to embrace the GLSS strategy through a wide-ranging understanding and exploring these barriers.Social implicationsThe GLSS barriers in HEIs may significantly affect the society. HEIs can lessen their environmental effect by using GLSS practices, which can support sustainability initiatives and foster social responsibility. Taking steps to reduce environmental effect can benefit society as a whole. GLSS techniques in HEIs can also result in increased operational effectiveness and cost savings, which can free up resources to be employed in other areas, like boosting student services and improving educational programs. However, failing to implement GLSS procedures in HEIs could have societal repercussions as well. As a result, it is critical for HEIs to identify and remove GLSS barriers in order to advance sustainability, social responsibility and operational effectiveness.Originality/valueGLSS is a comprehensive methodology that facilitates the optimum utilization of resources, reduces waste and provides the pathway for sustainable development so, the novelty of this study stands in the inclusion of its barriers and HEIs to prioritize them for effective implementation.

Modern Educational, Scientific and Industrial Process in a Temporarily Relocated Institution of Higher Education: Challenges, Features of Organization, Prospects for Development and Innovations

This research delves into the dynamic landscape of modern educational, scientific, and industrial processes within a temporarily relocated institution of higher education in Ukraine. Faced with unique challenges resulting from external circumstances, this study explores the distinctive features of organizational strategies and the potential for development and innovation in this context. The relocation of an institution of higher education, albeit temporary, poses multifaceted challenges that demand novel approaches. This research investigates the impacts of such transitions on students, faculty, infrastructure, and overall academic operations. By examining the challenges faced by the institution during this period, the study seeks to offer insights into the complexities of maintaining academic continuity and ensuring an enriching educational experience for all stakeholders. In tandem with addressing challenges, the research identifies and analyzes the distinctive features of organizational strategies adopted by the institution during the relocation. The study aims to shed light on how these adaptations influence the overall effectiveness and resilience of the educational and scientific processes. Moreover, the study assesses the prospects for development and growth in a temporarily relocated institution of higher education. By examining potential opportunities arising from the relocation, such as forging new partnerships, enhancing research collaborations, and leveraging local resources, the research outlines pathways for sustainable development in the face of adversity. This work contributes to a comprehensive understanding of the challenges, features of organization, prospects for development, and innovations in a temporarily relocated institution of higher education in Ukraine. The study also serves as a valuable resource for other institutions navigating similar challenges, offering practical insights into effectively managing temporary relocations while embracing transformative opportunities for progress and development.

Characteristics and Projection of Rainfall Erosivity Distribution in the Hengduan Mountains

This study examines the spatiotemporal variations of rainfall erosivity in the Hengduan Mountains, known for their rugged terrain and high potential for soil erosion risks, over the past 30 years. Additionally, it investigates the changing trends of rainfall erosivity between 2025 and 2040 under the Sustainable Development Pathway 2–4.5 (SSP2–4.5), using four Global Climate Models (GCMs) based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). The results indicate: (1) The annual distribution of rainfall erosivity in the Hengduan Mountains exhibited significant seasonal variations, ranking in the order of summer > autumn > spring > winter on a seasonal scale. (2) Over the past 30 years, there has been a slight decrease in annual precipitation and a corresponding slight increase in rainfall erosivity. Periodic extreme values occur every 6–8 years. (3) Spatially, rainfall erosivity demonstrates a decreasing gradient from southeast to northwest. There is a significant positive correlation between rainfall erosivity and precipitation, while a significant negative correlation exists with elevation in the vertical direction. Furthermore, the northeastern part of the Hengduan Mountains exhibits an increasing trend of rainfall erosivity, while the southern region experiences a decreasing trend. (4) Considering the joint driving forces of increased precipitation and erosive rainfall events, rainfall erosivity is expected to significantly increase in the future, posing a more severe risk of soil erosion in this region.

Balancing co-benefits and trade-offs between climate change mitigation and adaptation innovations under mixed crop-livestock systems in semi-arid Zimbabwe

Achieving Zimbabwe’s national and international commitments to food systems transformation and climate resilience building is of high priority. Integrated simulation-based research approaches developed under the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) are important sources of evidence to guide policy decisions towards sustainable intensification. Through the identification of economically viable, socially inclusive and environmentally sustainable development pathways, the analysis in this study evaluates co-benefits and trade-offs between climate change adaptation and mitigation interventions for vulnerable smallholder crop-livestock holdings in the semi-arid regions of Zimbabwe. We explore how climate effects disrupt the livelihoods and food security for diverse farm types, the extremely vulnerable and those better resource endowed but facing high risks. In an iterative process with experts and stakeholders, we co-developed context specific development pathways. They include market-oriented adaptation and mitigation interventions and social protection mechanisms that would support the transition towards more sustainable intensified, diversified and better integrated crop-livestock systems. We assess the trade-offs associated with adoption of climate-smart interventions aimed at improving incomes and food security but that may have consequences on GHG emissions for the different pathways and farm types. The approach and results inform the discussion on drivers that can bring about sustainable intensification, and the extent to which socio-economic benefits could enhance the uptake of emission reducing technologies thereof. Through this strategy we evaluate interventions that can result in win–win outcomes, that is, adaptation-mitigation co-benefits, and what this would imply for policies that aim at transforming agri-food systems.

Refugee settlements are highly exposed to extreme weather conditions.

Involuntary displacement from conflict and other causes leads to clustering of refugees and internally displaced people, often in long-term settlements. Within refugee-hosting countries, refugee settlements are frequently located in isolated and remote areas, characterized by poor-quality land and harsh climatic conditions. Yet, the exposure of refugee settlements to climatic events is underresearched. In this article, we study the exposure of the 20 largest refugee settlements worldwide to extreme variations in climatic conditions. The analysis integrates exposure of camp locations compared to the national trends for both slow- and rapid-onset events and includes descriptive statistics, signal-to-noise analyses, and trend analyses. Our findings show that most refugee settlements included face relatively high exposure to slow-onset events, including high temperatures (for settlements in Kenya, Ethiopia, Rwanda, Sudan, and Uganda), low temperatures (in the case of Jordan and Pakistan), and low levels of rainfall (in Ethiopia, Rwanda, Kenya, and Uganda) compared to national averages. Our findings for rapid-onset events-heatwaves, coldwaves, and extreme rainfall-are less conclusive compared to country trends, although we find relatively high exposure to extreme rainfall in Cox's Bazar, Bangladesh. Our analyses confirm that refugee populations are exposed to extreme weather conditions postdisplacement, which, in combination with their sociopolitical exclusion, poses a threat to well-being and increased marginalization. Our findings call for an inclusive and integrated approach, including refugees and their host communities, in designing climate adaptation and sustainable development policies, in order to promote equitable sustainable development pathways in refugee-hosting countries.

Global residential scenarios towards low energy and material demands

Transition to low energy and material demand (LEMD) for buildings is key to reach climate change mitigation and sustainability targets but will require unprecedent technological and social transformations. Scenarios addressing LEMD transformations for the global building sector are still largely unexplored. In this study, we assess global residential energy and material demands until 2050 for three alternative sustainable development pathways (SDPs): Economy-driven innovation (EI), driven by technology and energy efficiency; Resilient communities (RC), a post-growth scenario centred around local communities and behavioural change; and Managing the global commons (MC), with strong global institutions and high electrification. We use the bottom-up framework MESSAGEix-Buildings, soft-linked to the integrated assessment model MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM, to model the three SDPs for the global residential sector. We show that the RC scenario entails the highest potential towards reducing energy and material demand driven by behavioural change. The EI and MC scenarios are characterized by relatively higher energy and material demand levels and might require additional efforts on the supply-side to reduce total building-related operational and construction greenhouse gases emissions. This study can support decision making on strategies towards sustainability and zero-energy and emission targets in the buildings sector.