Sustainable development pathways of China's wind power industry under uncertainties: Perspective from economic benefits and technical potential

Abstract

Wind power is crucial to China's and even the world's efforts to address climate change. However, the development pathways of China's wind power industry (WPI) remain unclear, hindering the holistic layout of China's wind power development plan. This study constructs a system dynamics model to simulate the economic benefits and technical potential of China's WPI under various uncertainties, thus informing sustainable development pathways. Multi-scenario simulation results show that: 1) Under the BAU scenario, the investment returns of wind power operators are not ideal. It is necessary for China's WPI to further improve the wind power generation efficiency or adopt a more effective market-oriented policy mechanism. 2) Compared with the BAU scenario, the economic benefits and technological potential under the technology changes scenario increase by an average of 120% and 42%, respectively, verifying that technological advancement is the most effective way to drive China's WPI sustainable development. 3) Although macro-environment fluctuations have a negative impact on economic benefits, they can stimulate the improvement of technological potential to a certain extent. The study allows an understanding of China's WPI long-term sustainable development pathways under various uncertainties, thus helping to provide a reference for policy-making institutions.