Global residential scenarios towards low energy and material demands

Abstract

Transition to low energy and material demand (LEMD) for buildings is key to reach climate change mitigation and sustainability targets but will require unprecedent technological and social transformations. Scenarios addressing LEMD transformations for the global building sector are still largely unexplored. In this study, we assess global residential energy and material demands until 2050 for three alternative sustainable development pathways (SDPs): Economy-driven innovation (EI), driven by technology and energy efficiency; Resilient communities (RC), a post-growth scenario centred around local communities and behavioural change; and Managing the global commons (MC), with strong global institutions and high electrification. We use the bottom-up framework MESSAGEix-Buildings, soft-linked to the integrated assessment model MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM, to model the three SDPs for the global residential sector. We show that the RC scenario entails the highest potential towards reducing energy and material demand driven by behavioural change. The EI and MC scenarios are characterized by relatively higher energy and material demand levels and might require additional efforts on the supply-side to reduce total building-related operational and construction greenhouse gases emissions. This study can support decision making on strategies towards sustainability and zero-energy and emission targets in the buildings sector.