Pathways For China Research Articles

Optimization of Regional Power Low-Carbon Transition Pathways in China under Differentiated Tradable Green Certificates Trading Models

Optimization of Regional Power Low-Carbon Transition Pathways in China under Differentiated Tradable Green Certificates Trading Models

Carbon peak prediction in China based on Bagging-integrated GA-BiLSTM model under provincial perspective

Many studies have revealed potential carbon peaking pathways in China. However, to minimize the uncertainty inherent in forecasting studies, more accurate forecasting models as well as more segmented forecasting subjects are always necessary. Based on panel data of 30 Chinese provinces from 2000 to 2020, this study applies the STIRPAT model and ridge regression to examine the key influencing factors of carbon emissions in each province in China, further constructs an innovative Bagging-integrated GA-BiLSTM model for forecasting, and finally explores China's peak carbon pathways in conjunction with scenario analysis. The results show that: (1) increasing urbanization and population growth are the main reasons driving the increase of carbon emissions in most provinces; (2) there is significant variability in the carbon peaking dynamics of China's regions, which can be classified into three categories: autonomous earlier peaking, policy-guided peaking, and difficulty in peaking; (3) For most provinces, the green scenario is more effective than the development scenario in reducing the peak carbon level rather than advancing the peak time; (4) under the development and the green scenario, China's overall carbon peak will be reached in 2032 and 2028, with the peak carbon levels of 11.88 billion tons and 11.42 billion tons, respectively.

Life cycle environmental and economic assessment of Phosphogypsum utilization in China

Phosphogypsum (PG), a byproduct of the phosphate fertilizer industry, poses significant environmental challenges due to its huge production and complex composition. Efficient and large-scale utilization of PG remains a global issue. China, as the world's largest producer and discharger of PG, faces a relatively low utilization rate and urgently needs effective management strategies. This study evaluates the environmental and economic performance of the main PG treatment pathways in China using life cycle assessment (LCA). The results reveal notable benefits for all three utilization technologies, with sulfuric acid co-production cement (PSC) offering the greatest environmental advantages and β-building gypsum (PBG) providing the highest economic benefits. Scenario analysis suggests PSC as the most effective strategy for achieving dual environmental and economic gains, making it a strong candidate for large-scale implementation. These findings provide critical insights for future PG management strategies in China.

Megacity pathways in China under the dual carbon goal: The case of Shanghai

The pathways to achieving carbon neutrality at the city level are diverse due to varying energy supply and demand conditions. Shanghai faces obstacles such as limited land resources, high costs of renewable energy technologies, and instability of renewable energy. These challenges hinder the city’s efforts to achieve carbon peak and carbon neutrality (dual carbon). Therefore, Shanghai must identify and optimize its development path for renewable energy under the dual carbon goal. We employed the Low Emissions Analysis Platform-Shanghai (LEAP-SH) model to simulate the impact of policies, such as industrial upgrading, energy efficiency improvement, energy structure optimization, increased technical innovation on energy, and ecological restoration, on the carbon emission pathways from 2022 to 2060 using five different scenarios. Our results indicate that Shanghai has the potential to achieve carbon neutrality in 2059 by promoting carbon reduction, pollution control, and green expansion. Moreover, we determined that the manufacturing industry; power generation industry; and transportation, storage, and mail services are the three major sectors for emission reduction under the dual carbon goal. Furthermore, the capacity and output of coal-fired power plants will be gradually replaced by offshore wind power in the dual carbon pathway. Finally, this study proposes countermeasures and suggestions for Shanghai to attain the dual carbon goal and high-quality development.

Can we reach consensus on the dominant sulfate formation pathway in China's haze?

Atmospheric sulfate aerosols contribute significantly to air pollution and climate change. Sulfate formation mechanisms during winter haze events in northern China have recently received considerable attention, with more than 10 studies published in high-impact journals. However, the conclusions from in-field measurements, laboratory studies, and numerical simulations are inconsistent and even contradictory. Here, we propose a physically based yet simple method to clarify the debate on the dominant sulfate formation pathway. Based on the hazes evolving in the synoptic scale, first, a characteristic sulfate formation rate is derived using the Eulerian mass conservation equation constrained by in situ observations. Then, this characteristic value is treated as a guideline to determine the dominant sulfate formation pathway with a 0D chemical box model. Our observation-derived results establish a linkage between studies from laboratory experiments and chemical transport model simulations. A convergent understanding could therefore be reached on sulfate formation mechanisms in China's wintertime haze. This method is universal and can be applied to various haze conditions and different secondary products.

Comparative Assessment of the Environmental and Economic Performance of Two Straw Utilization Pathways in China

Comparative Assessment of the Environmental and Economic Performance of Two Straw Utilization Pathways in China

Historical Insights into Sustainable Development: Analyzing the Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Ancient Trade and Settlements

Ancient trade routes significantly influenced political structures, cultural exchanges, economic development, and landscape transformations across diverse regions. The Ancient Tea Horse Road, a prominent historical commercial pathway in China, is crucial for ecosystem and cultural heritage conservations. This study uses content and comparative analysis, Geographic Information System (GIS) technology, and spatial analysis to examine the spatiotemporal relationships between 13,026 settlement points identified via Google Earth and 445 recorded settlement names within the Dali Bai Autonomous Prefecture, Yunnan Province. The findings indicate that the Ancient Tea Horse Road evolved from a simple linear form to a complex radial network, reflecting its growth from local to broad regional connectivity. Settlements related to administrative, postal, and commercial functions emerged in its vicinity, underscoring the route’s impact on social structures and economic activities. The development of settlements, mainly within a 10 km radius of the route, was closely linked to its expansion, alteration, and decline, offering insights into contemporary settlement distribution patterns. This research not only enhances the understanding of the Ancient Tea Horse Road and its surrounding settlements but also supports the protection of ancient trade routes and their cultural heritage. It contributes to sustainable development by integrating ecological preservation with the safeguarding of ancient trade routes and their cultural legacies.

Transition towards sustainable diets: Multi-objective optimization of dietary pattern in China

Global diversity in food cultures has led to a variety of dietary patterns, the evolution of which can significantly impact greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. To address the dual challenge of climate change and malnutrition, we need to examine feasible pathways towards sustainable diets that balance nutritional adequacy, environmental impact, and cultural acceptability. We propose an optimized dietary transition pathway in China, which aligns with the nation's dietary guidelines (DGs) while aiming to reduce diet-associated GHG emissions and maintain the cultural food preferences. We also examine how the current dietary patterns will change under three different scenarios: 1) meeting nutritional needs (N), minimizing GHG emissions while maintaining nutritional standards (NE), and sustaining cultural acceptance and maintain GHG emissions at a low level while ensuring standard nutrient intake (NEC). We analyze data from 31 provinces in China between 2000 and 2020 to explore sustainable dietary patterns. In this period, plant-based food consumption has experienced a substantial 12 % decrease, in contrast to the 68 % increase in animal-sourced food intake. Meanwhile, diet-associated GHG emissions in China have increased by 17 %. However, dietary nutrition remains below national standards. The diet-associated GHG emission under NEC is 63.43% lower than N and is 7.04% higher than NE, while NEC in cultural unacceptability is 28.39% lower than NE. Our optimized dietary patterns demonstrate the potential to achieve the national nutrition standard, significantly cut GHG emissions, and retain higher cultural acceptability. Acknowledging the regional disparities in sustainable dietary pathways, we propose the implementation of customized provincial directives aimed at fostering compliance with these favorable trends. Our study offers critical policy implications towards achieving a sustainable diet in China, which contributes to managing the complex trade-offs among nutrition, cultural preferences, and environmental impact.

Lifecycle carbon footprints of buildings and sustainability pathways in China

The Paris Agreement, with a 2 °C temperature increase baseline and a 1.5 °C target temperature increase, imposes challenges to the sustainability of buildings. However, as an end-user or end-of-the-art, the building sector overlaps with other sectors, such as industry and transportation in building materials manufacturing (such as steel, concrete, cement, etc. ) and electricity use (such as building-to-vehicle charging), imposing difficulties in lifecycle carbon footprint quantification in buildings. In this study, the lifecycle carbon footprint of buildings and sustainability pathways in China are provided. Tools and platforms for lifecycle carbon footprint quantification in buildings are reviewed. A global database for lifecycle carbon footprint quantification in buildings is reviewed and compared, together with an analysis of the advantages and disadvantages. Furthermore, decarbonization technologies in the building operation stage are comprehensively reviewed, including the decarbonization potential, technology readiness level (TRL), techno-economic performance, and current technical status. Pathways on carbon neutrality in building sectors in China are provided. The results indicate that inconsistencies in global databases, unclear definitions of lifecycle carbon emissions, and inaccurate models of building energy consumption are the main challenges for accurate lifecycle carbon analysis in buildings. Various carbon neutrality transformation technologies can be classified into ultralow energy building and near zero-energy building technologies and into efficient heat pump and smart metering technologies. Pathways for low-carbon transition in building sectors include building energy saving (330 million tCO2 with 22%), renewable energy supply (299 million tCO2 with 20%), building electrification and power sector decarbonization (450 million tCO2 with 30%), and carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) technology (420 million tCO2 with 28%). These research results can pave the way for upcoming studies on the lifecycle carbon footprint in buildings and sustainability pathways in China.

The substantial impacts of carbon capture and storage technology policies on climate change mitigation pathways in China

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology, considered as a pivotal tool in mitigating climate change within the fossil energy system, particularly in China, has experienced slower development than expected. The exploration of direct incentive policies to facilitate its growth remains relatively underdeveloped. This study developed a hybrid dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to simulate the substantial impacts of CCS incentive policies on China within the context of carbon neutrality target. Two potential incentive policies, carbon emission trading system (ETS) and 45Q tax credit, were simulated, with different sectoral coverage. The results indicate that CCS technologies can reduce carbon emissions by 960 ∼ 1,604 MtCO2 annually by 2060 through the strategic implementation of these incentive policies. The 45Q tax credit demonstrates its effectiveness in promoting early-stage research and development (R&D) and demonstration of CCS, while the ETS policy facilitates the commercial development of CCS in the later stage of development. By 2060, the implementation of CCS incentive policies could potentially result in 7.7 ∼ 17.4 % reduction in China’s primary energy consumption, 71.2 ∼ 82.7 % decrease in the carbon price of ETS and 5.64 ∼ 6.59 % increase in the GDP compared with the no-policy scenario. In addition, the sectoral output in various sectors and the welfare of urban and rural households also increase. This paper provides an important reference for the realization of China’s carbon neutrality goal and the model framework can be applied to other countries.

Potentials of Mixed-Integer Linear Programming (MILP)-Based Optimization for Low-Carbon Hydrogen Production and Development Pathways in China

Hydrogen (H2) is considered one of the main pillars for transforming the conventional “dark” energy system to a net-zero carbon or “green” energy system. This work reviewed the potential resources for producing low-carbon hydrogen in China, as well as the possible hydrogen production methods based on the available resources. The analysis and comparison of the levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) for different hydrogen production pathways, and the optimal technology mixes to produce H2 in China from 2020 to 2050 were obtained using the mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) optimization model. The results were concluded as three major ones: (a) By 2050, the LCOH of solar- and onshore-wind-powered hydrogen will reach around 70–80 $/MWh, which is lower than the current H2 price and the future low-carbon H2 price. (b) Fuel costs (>40%) and capital investments (~20%) of different hydrogen technologies are the major cost components, and also are the major direction to further reduce the hydrogen price. (c) For the optimal hydrogen technology mix under the higher renewable ratio (70%) in 2050, the installed capacities of the renewable-powered electrolysers are all more than 200 GW, and the overall LCOH is 68.46 $/MWh. This value is higher than the LCOH (62.95 $/MWh) of the scenario with higher coal gasification with carbon capture and the storage (CG-CCS) ratio (>50%). Overall, this work is the first time that hydrogen production methods in China has been discussed comprehensively, as well as the acquisition of the optimal H2 production technology mix by the MILP optimization model, which can provide guidance on future hydrogen development pathways and technology development potential in China.

Life Cycle Assessment of Aviation Fuel Production from Steel-Industry Off-Gas

The steel industry in China, the world’s largest, contributes to about 15% of the nation’s total carbon emissions. Instead of direct combustion, the technology of converting off-gas from the steel industry into liquid fuels not only enhances the added value of this byproduct but also helps alleviate carbon emissions. This study, for the first time, integrates the specific circumstances of China to evaluate the carbon emissions of Ethanol to Jet (ETJ) and Fischer–Tropsch to Jet (FTJ) fuel technologies utilizing Basic Oxygen Furnace Gas (BOFG) and Coke Oven Gas (COG) as feedstocks. Six cases were examined using Aspen Plus (V11) for mass and energy balance: Case 1: BOFG/ETJ, Case 2: BOFG/FTJ, Case 3: COG/ETJ, Case 4: COG/FTJ, Case 5: (COG + BOFG)/ETJ, and Case 6: (COG + BOFG)/FTJ. The analysis underscores that the FTJ pathway exhibits superior carbon reduction efficiency relative to ETJ. Compared to traditional petroleum-based aviation fuels (86.65 g CO2eq/MJ), the FTJ pathways utilizing COG or COG + BOFG as feedstocks exhibit significant advantages in greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions, with carbon emissions of 23.60 g CO2eq/MJ and 41.48 g CO2eq/MJ, respectively, representing reductions of 72.76% and 52.13%. Furthermore, employing uncertainty analysis based on the Monte Carlo method establishes the credibility of the findings. Finally, sensitivity analysis for parameter optimization and process improvements demonstrates the significant impact of the life cycle assessment (LCA) allocation method on computational results for exhaust gas feedstocks. Given the limited coverage of lifecycle assessments for Ethanol to Jet and Fischer–Tropsch to Jet pathways in China, this study could assist policymakers in determining the development trajectory of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) in China.

Deep Learning-Based Carbon Emission Forecasting and Peak Carbon Pathways in China’s Logistics Industry

As a major energy-consuming industry, energy conservation and emission reduction in the logistics industry are critical to China’s timely achievement of its dual-carbon goals of “carbon peaking” by 2030 and “carbon neutrality” by 2060. Based on deep learning, Random Forest (RF) was used to screen out the key factors affecting carbon emissions in the logistics industry, and the Whale Algorithm-optimized Radial Basis Function Neural Network (WOA-RBF) was proposed. The Monte Carlo simulation predicted the future evolution trends of each key factor under the three scenarios of baseline scenario (BAU), policy regulation scenario (PR), and technological breakthrough scenario (TB) and accurately predicted the carbon emission trends of the logistics industry from 2023 to 2035 by using the most probable future values of each influencing factor as inputs to the WOA-RBF prediction model. The results of the study demonstrate that fixed asset investment (LFI), population (P), total energy consumption (E), energy consumption per unit of value added of the logistics industry (EIL), share of oil consumption (OR), and share of railway freight turnover (RTR) are the key factors influencing the logistics industry’s carbon emissions. Monte Carlo simulations can effectively reflect the uncertainty of future changes in these key factors. In comparison to the BAU and PR scenarios, the TB scenario, with the combined incentives of national policy regulation and technology innovation, is the most likely for the logistics industry to meet the “Peak Carbon” goal baseline scenario.

Air quality and health benefits for different heating decarbonization pathways in China

The urgent need for decarbonization in China's heating system, comprised of approximately one hundred thousand boilers, is imperative to meet climate and clean air objectives. To formulate national and regional strategies, we developed an integrated model framework that combines a facility-level emission inventory, the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model, and the Global Exposure Mortality Model (GEMM). We then explore the air quality and health benefits of alternative heating decarbonization pathways, including the retirement of coal-fired industrial boilers (CFIBs) for replacement with grid-bound heat supply systems, coal-to-gas conversion, and coal-to-biomass conversion. The gas replacement pathway shows the greatest potential for reducing PM2.5 concentration by 2.8 (2.3–3.4) μg/m3 by 2060, avoiding 23,100 (19,600–26,500) premature deaths. In comparison, the biomass replacement pathway offers slightly lower environmental and health benefits, but is likely to reduce costs by approximately two-thirds. Provincially, optimal pathways vary – Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Chongqing favor coal-to-gas conversion, while Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Inner Mongolia, and Shanxi show promise in CFIBs retirement. Henan leads in environmental and health benefits. Liaoning, Heilongjiang, and Jilin, rich in biomass resources, present opportunities for coal-to-biomass conversion.

Research on the Evolution of Value Transfer Pathways in China's Mobile Internet Industry

Research on the Evolution of Value Transfer Pathways in China's Mobile Internet Industry

Port carbon emission peaking simulation and emission reduction pathway in China

In order to achieve the goal of “carbon peak before 2030 and carbon neutrality before 2060”, all industries are fully engaged in energy conservation and carbon reduction work. Carbon emissions from the transportation sector account for nearly 10% of China's carbon emissions[1]. Port is an extremely important part of China's transportation industry, and it is also one of the key areas of energy conservation and emission reduction in the transportation industry. It is very important to carry out research on the status evaluation of port carbon emissions, predict the future trend of carbon emissions, and explore the strategy and path of port carbon peak. In this study, the carbon emission scenario prediction model based on the detailed list of port equipment was established to simulate the port carbon emissions. It is also applied to a northern port in China to study and judge the peak value and time point of carbon emission in the future, and propose the path of carbon peak in the port.

A cross-scale modelling and decarbonisation quantification approach for navigating Carbon Neutrality Pathways in China

A cross-scale modelling and decarbonisation quantification approach for navigating Carbon Neutrality Pathways in China

Pathways for China's sustainable energy transition: Examining the effects of exchange rate volatility on renewable energy investment

The relationship between exchange rate volatility (ERV) and other macroeconomic factors, including trade flows, domestic production, inflation, money demand, and economic growth, has remained a topic of a large number of studies in international finance. However, the research question that the past empirics have overlooked is whether ERV has any role in helping an emerging economy like China in its journey toward a renewable energy transition. To answer this question, this analysis intends to scrutinize the nexus between ERV and renewable energy investment (REI) in China over 1991Q1-2021Q4. Moreover, due to the asymmetric behavior of ERV, we have based our analysis on the asymmetric assumption. For analyzing the short and long-run impacts of ERV on REI in China, we used the linear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and nonlinear ARDL methods. In the long term, the ARDL model predicts that stricter environmental policies and higher GDP will lead to more investment in renewable energy. As far as the nonlinear model is concerned, the long-term negative change in ERV does not affect REIs, whereas a long-term positive change in ERV reduces such investments. Likewise, unfavorable short-term exchange rate shocks encourage REI while positive short-term shocks discourage such development. Moreover, investment in renewable energy is bolstered by GDP, environmental policy strictness, and financial development, but is dampened by CO2 emissions in the short term in both models. On the basis of these results, we suggest that policymakers should consider implementing measures to stabilize exchange rates to promote investment in renewable energy.

Advancing "Carbon Peak" and "Carbon Neutrality" in China: A Comprehensive Review of Current Global Research on Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage Technology and Its Implications.

Carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) technology plays a pivotal role in China's "Carbon Peak" and "Carbon Neutrality" goals. This approach offers low-carbon, zero-carbon, and even negative-carbon solutions. This paper employs bibliometric analysis using the Web of Science to comprehensively review global CCUS progress and discuss future development prospects in China. The findings underscore it as a prominent research focus, attracting scholars from both domestic and international arenas. China notably leads the global landscape in terms of research paper output, with the Chinese Academy of Sciences holding a prominent position in total published papers. The research predominantly centers on refining geological storage techniques and optimizing oil and gas recovery rates. Among the CCUS pathways, enhanced oil recovery technology stands out due to its relative maturity and commercial applicability, particularly within the conventional oil and gas reservoirs. The application potential of enhanced gas recovery technology, especially in the Sichuan and Ordos Basins in China, necessitates robust research and demonstration efforts. Within China's current energy landscape, "Blue Hydrogen" emerges as the primary solution for hydrogen production in conjunction with CCUS technology. The underground coal gasification approach holds significant promise as a hydrogen production avenue, albeit with inherent ecological and environmental challenges tied to geological storage that require meticulous consideration. The establishment of effective risk identification and evaluation methodologies for geological storage is imperative. The trajectory ahead involves a strategic convergence of policy, technology, and market dynamics to enhance China's CCUS policy framework, legislative framework, standardization initiatives, and pioneering technological advancements. These collective efforts converge to outline an exclusive development pathway in China. This study assumes a pivotal role in accelerating CCUS technology research and deployment, enhancing oil and gas recovery efficiency, and ultimately realizing the overarching goals of a "Dual Carbon" future.

Cost dynamics of onshore wind energy in the context of China's carbon neutrality target

Wind energy has become one of the most important measures for China to achieve its carbon neutrality goal. The spatial and temporal evolvement of economic competitiveness for wind energy becomes an important concern in shaping the decarbonization pathway in China. There has been an urgent need in power system planning to model the future dynamics of cost decline and supply potential for wind power in the context of carbon neutrality until 2060. Existing studies often fail to capture the rapid decline in the cost of wind power generation in recent years, and the prediction of wind power cost decline is more conservative than the reality. This study constructs an integrated model to evaluate the cost-competitiveness and grid parity potential of China's onshore wind electricity at fine spatial resolution with updated parameters. Results indicate that the total onshore wind potential amounts to 54.0 PWh. The average levelized cost of wind power is expected to decline from CNY 0.39 kWh−1 in 2020 to CNY 0.30 and CNY 0.21 kWh−1 in 2030 and 2060. 28.3%, 67.6%, and 97.6% of the technical potentials hold power costs lower than coal power in 2020, 2030, and 2060.