Sustainable Growth Path Research Articles

Development of a roadmap as an important step towards the sustainable growth of the cocoa sector in Nigeria

In Nigeria, the decline in the efficiency of the cocoa industry in particular and of agricultural production in general began after the country gained independence. At that time, oil was discovered, and that stole the attention of the government in terms of financing. Over time, the country’s budget has become highly dependent on fluctuations in prices for petroleum products, and there emerged a critical need to diversify state revenues. Nigeria’s successive governments over the past 60 years have made repeated attempts to revive agriculture as an alternative to the oil sector, but all of them have proven unsuccessful. The author believes that the recovery of the cocoa sector can become the most important vector for strengthening the country’s food security. Increased foreign exchange earnings from the export of cocoa products will enable Nigeria to purchase more food to meet the needs of the population. The author considers the lack of qualified management and competent agricultural policy in the country as the reason for the degradation of the cocoa industry and puts forward a roadmap for the development of the sector in Nigeria, which takes into account its current problems and may return the industry to the path of sustainable growth.

AN ANALYSIS OF CAUSAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN MAJOR ECONOMIC VARIBALES

India contemplates Atma nirbharta, the economic policy should also strive to promote export dynamism and propel Indian economy to the path of long term sustained economic growth and development.Exports and imports are one of the fundamental drivers of engine of growth for any economy. It can have an impact on countryÂ’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), exchange rate, level of inflation as well as interest rates.An Attempt has been made whether Export have causal relationship on GDP or Import have causal relationship on GDP, to conclude import increases, which may lead to increases GDP, when import materials can be value added and finally it increases GDP. In case of exports there is significant impact of exports on GDP but GDP does have significant impact on Exports. India, unlike the Asian Tigers, has never managed to be an export-driven economy.

Logistics cluster and its future development: A comprehensive research review

Logistics clusters play an essential role in bridging production and consumption. Researchers, government authorities, and investors have widely recognized the benefits of logistics agglomeration, and extensive research on this topic has been performed in recent years. The aim of this study is to present an intellectual landscape through a structured literature review of logistics cluster research. First, following the logic of “what-why-how”, we found that logistics cluster research can be divided into three parts: the concept and quantitative identification of logistics clusters, the agglomeration externalities of logistics clusters, and the competitiveness and growth mechanism of logistics clusters. Second, the bibliometric results indicate that: (i) logistics clusters have gradually developed from an engineering or operations management discipline into one involving multidisciplinary approaches of geosciences, sustainable science, etc.; (ii) the focus of research has gradually shifted from the development and operation of logistics clusters to the exploration of the clusters growth mechanism; (iii) researchers start to concentrate on spatially explicit analyses of the economic and environmental effects of logistics clusters, and the exploration of sustainable growth paths for clusters. Finally, in consideration of these trends and the emerging situation, we propose some new research topics, such as (i) the convergence and competitive effect of logistics clusters, (ii) data science and analytics in logistics clusters, (iii) the application of new theories and technologies to transportation and supply chain, etc. in logistics cluster scenarios, (iv) sustainable operation of logistics clusters, and (v) quantitative modeling research in logistics clusters. Overall, much room is left for theoretically and practically expanding logistics cluster research. This study can further the unveiling of the systemic nature of logistics cluster research and provide new insights for scholars, practitioners and policymakers.

Electricity access, demographic transition and sustainable growth in frontier economies

AbstractThe study investigates the mediating role of population growth in the nexus between electricity access and sustainable growth of frontier economies. The study spans the period 2000–2020 for a panel of 25 frontier economies. Predicated on a modified environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) model, the technique of analysis is the panel quantile regression across the three major threshold levels of 25th, 50th and 75th percentiles. Also, higher threshold levels such as 90th, 95th and 97.5th percentiles were investigated. Prior to the estimations, various preliminary tests, including the panel unit root tests, were conducted to confirm the data stability conditions of the variables. The study found that access to electricity engenders sustainable growth in these frontier economies only up to the 95th percentile. However, exchange rate is said to endanger the sustainable growth path of these economies and these economies should not tolerate any idea of currency devaluation. More so, these economies should be made competitive to avoid currency depreciation. Interestingly, the role of population growth can be described as being a dividend rather than a burden but became imperceptible at the 95th percentile. Hence, efforts should be made to make increasing population remain qualitative for growth to remain sustainable.

The role of digitalization and import substitution in improving the financial standing of St. Petersburg enterprises

Aim. The presented study aims to investigate the potential benefits of digitalization and import substitution for restoring the financial standing of St. Petersburg enterprises under the influence of crisis factors.Tasks. The authors conduct an economic analysis of the potential benefits of digitalization and import substitution for restoring the financial standing of enterprises in Russia in general and St. Petersburg in particular; analyze the financial standing of St. Petersburg enterprises in 2020–2022 to identify the most affected industries and beneficiaries of the current crisis; identify problematic aspects of the innovative development of St. Petersburg enterprises in the context of import substitution and digitalization; develop measures to improve its level.Methods. The study uses systems and logical approaches, economic-statistical and general scientific methods, including methods of comparative, economic, and financial analysis.Results. Trends in the development of the Russian economy under modern conditions are considered. The financial standing of St. Petersburg organizations are analyzed by type of economic activity and its dynamics in 2020–2022. Digitalization and import substitution are identified as factors affecting the development of the financial standing of enterprises. Emphasis is placed on the ways of using artificial intelligence systems and automation technologies in production processes. A SWOT analysis of macroeconomic factors affecting the innovative development of St. Petersburg enterprises in the context of import substitution is performed.Conclusions. Factors facilitating the restoration of the financial standing of St. Petersburg organizations include accelerated digitalization and import substitution. Analysis of the financial standing of St. Petersburg organizations in 2020–2022 shows that some industries have managed to adapt their business processes to the new conditions, while others remain in a difficult economic state and are looking for ways to recover. However, St. Petersburg enterprises have the opportunity to capitalize on the benefits of digitalization for recovery. Introduction of artificial intelligence is particularly important in the current crisis situation. A sound innovation policy for expanding import substitution and the range of available products is also an essential measure. The results of the study can be used to restore small and medium enterprises in St. Petersburg, increase investment activity in the region, solve economic problems, and implement measures to get on the path of sustainable growth of the city’s economy.

Comparative analysis of the growth impact of pollution and energy use in selected West African nations.

We adopt the FMOLS and Granger causality technique to analyse the effect of energy use and carbon emissions on output growth in selected West African economies, which includes Nigeria, Gambia and Ghana, from 1970 to 2019. Findings confirm that energy use enhances growth in the three selected West African economies. But in terms of significance, energy consumption is significant in Nigeria and Gambia at a 1% level of significance while it is insignificant for the Gambia. CO2 emission positively and significantly propels economic growth for the three selected West African economies. For Nigeria, causality evidence shows no direct influence among the variables. For Ghana, we find a bi-causal association between output growth and carbon emissions and a unidirectional causality from pollution to energy consumption. For Gambia, economic growth causes CO2 emissions. We recommend that the West African government reinforce their stand on a sustainable growth path through energy conservation.

COVID-19 Bağlamında Temel Üreme, Anne, Yenidoğan, Çocuk, Ergen Sağlığı ve Beslenme Hizmetlerinin Sürdürülmesine İlişkin Etki Değerlendirmesi: Kuzey-Orta Nijerya'dan İçgörü

Objective: In the context of COVID-19 in North Central Nigeria, a qualitative interview study was conducted to assess the impact on the maintenance of essential sexual, reproductive, maternal newborn, child, adolescent healthy plus nutrition serves (RMNCAH+N). 
 Methods: This proposition aligns with the global crusade of the United Nations Sustainable development goals (UNSDGs 2.3.8) that highlights good nutrition (zero hunger) access to quality healthy and sustainable economic growth path. To this end, a field survey design was done qualitatively. Key informant interviews (KIIs) and focus group discussions (FGDs) were used in the qualitative analysis, which was based on typical interview schedules. During the study period, a total of 258 people from six different communities participated in the KII and FGD interviews. 
 Results: Key study findings outline eight major master essential concepts, such as healthcare workers reporting a variety of tough emotions and psychological issues. These included insufficient medical equipment’s, dissatisfaction with members of the public who did not observe social distancing norms, concerns about protecting their loved ones from infection, increased workload, and changing working conditions, insufficient personal protective equipment kits (PPE), and a sense that their frontline work was being undermined. 
 Conclusion: There was also a significant increase in gender-based violence. Further policy suggestions are outlined in the concluding section.

Evaluating the implementation of Smart Specialisation policy

ABSTRACT The Smart Specialisation Strategy (S3) is at the core of the 2014–20 European Cohesion Policy, supporting regions to identify the technologies and economic sectors that might comprise sustainable growth paths. This paper provides an early attempt to assess empirically, for the whole European Union, whether the choices made by regions in selecting S3 target sectors are consistent with their current or potential specialization patterns. Results show only a few regions selected S3 paths rooted in both their current specializations and related activities, most of them prioritized different combinations of unspecialized or unrelated sectors, thus limiting the growth potential of their S3 policy choices.

Industrial Policies or Industrial Strategy: The Difficulty of Enacting Long‐Term Supply‐Side Reform in the UK

AbstractThe government's recent ditching of Theresa May's interventionist ‘Industrial Strategy’ and its replacement with the more amorphous and target‐driven ‘Plan for Growth’ has dismayed many in industry. But in many ways, the move merely exemplifies the ad hoc, short‐termist and ideologically driven nature of how industrial strategy has often been conceived and implemented in the UK since its rediscovery as an important tool of supply‐side policy following the market‐fundamentalist Thatcherite interregnum. This short‐termism has sabotaged repeated attempts to move the UK economy onto a higher and more sustainable growth path and will likely hinder the government in meeting its objectives on productivity, decarbonisation and levelling up through reindustrialisation. The problem has both institutional and ideological causes, largely to do with Treasury domination of the supply‐side agenda and its default market failure approach. This hinders successful adoption of the kinds of expansive, ‘mission‐oriented’ industrial strategies followed more successfully in other countries and which could be transformative if applied in the UK.

An estimation of macroeconomic energy rebound, intensity, and output effect: An evidence from Pakistan

The outcomes of energy efficiency are conditional on the size of energy rebound effect, which further promotes energy consumption instead of reducing it. Therefore, evaluating the energy rebound effect is a crucial constituent for environmental sustainability. In that perspective, the present paper examines macroeconomic rebound, intensity, and output effects of exogenous energy efficiency improvements for Pakistan using time series data from 1980 to 2018. For this, constant elasticity of substitution (CES) production function is estimated with two non-linear estimation techniques Nelder and Mead (NM) and Broyden Fletcher Goldfarb Shanno (BFGS). Moreover, three effects of energy efficiency are calculated for long run and short run with both constant returns to scale and variable returns to scale. The study finds about 65% partial energy rebound effect in both cases of NM method while BFGS method provides partial rebound effect (27%) in case of constant returns to scale and backfire (136%) in case of variable returns to scale. Moreover, the magnitudes of three effects in the long run are relatively high as compared to the short run effects. As anticipated, energy efficiency is relatively less effective; therefore, energy and environment policies should incorporate the energy rebound effect to achieve a sustainable economic growth path.

RETRACTED: The analysis of optimized path selection for management mode of coastal regional circular economy based on fuzzy decision algorithm

AbstractIn order to achieve economic growth without destroying the environment and consuming resources, it is necessary to reasonably predict the development trend of circular economy. The evolution path of circular economy in the coastal regions was analysed based on the fuzzy technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) method. The dynamic investigation was carried out through the variations of moving trajectory of model space points in a certain period of time, the evolution path of circular economy development in coastal regions was numerically simulated to conclude the evolution law of sustainable growth path in coastal regions, and the future development trend of coastal regional circular economy was predicted. Finally, the composite indicator is synthesized accordingly as an example to quantify the development of the Center of around Bohai Sea Economic Rim (BER). On the basis of introducing the basic situation of BER as well as its circular economy development status, comprehensive economic performance dataset of BER from 2005 to 2018 is used with specified TOPSIS method to improve the accuracy of evaluation. In addition, on the basis of the rule, the future development direction of the circular economy of the BER was predicted, and the policy suggestions were put forward in view of the development status and problems of circular economy.

Do Local Budgets Influence Regional Development? Empirical evidence from Romania

Public agenda constantly include the topics of sound local finances and promoting regional development, especially in the context of the government’s efforts to ensure a sustainable path of economic growth. From this point of view, our research is intended to empirically determine the role played by local finances on regional development, having Romania as a case study. We computed a Regional Development Index at county level, by comprising nine dimensions of progress: Our analysis encompasses data from TEMPO online database of National Institute of Statistic and from Ministry of Development, Public Works and Administration. The empirical evidence suggests a positive and significant relationship between some indicators of local budgets and our computed Regional Development Index. Reported to these results, our recommendations are directed towards the local fiscal policy, aiming to optimize the design of local budgetary indicators.

The Dilemma of the Great Development of Rural Tourism from the Sustainable Environment Perspective

Demand and motivation are powerful indicators of people's decisions and behaviors. Based on the in-depth interviews with 190 relevant stakeholders, the study found that the rural tourism industry is facing three kinds of pressures for continued growth. Under these three pressures, the rural tourism industry tends to “copy” and plunder resource-based development, which restricts the industry's sustainable growth path. Therefore, to continue the development of the rural tourism industry, we need to create a development path suitable for the sustainable development of rural tourism from three aspects: system, atmosphere construction, and market orientation.

Gardening in Russia: organizational, regulatory and technological aspect

The subject-object area of the study is the relationship of producers of fruit and berry products in the Russian Federation, with the aim of transferring the industry to the path of sustainable economic growth. A comparative analysis of production of these products in the country for the period from 2016 to 2020 has been carried out. Importance of state support measures for development of the industry is shown. The directions of development of domestic nursery breeding on the basis of improving the regulatory framework are considered. Considering that the main area of fruit and berry crops (292 thousand hectares or 63 %) is in the households of the population, therefore, it is necessary to develop their selection and assortment not only for industrial gardening, but also for households and peasant (farm) households. The necessity of granting scientific organizations the priority right to lease agricultural land for use in the study purposes has been substantiated. Transfer of the industry to an intensive development path based on the modernization of production processes is offered. Based on the materials of technological maps of horticultural organizations of the Krasnodar Territory, a list of production costs by years and the terms of their payback when laying a superintensive garden are given, which can be successfully used in business projects of the South and North Caucasian Federal Districts.

INTERNAL IMBALANCES AND GROWTH IN UKRAINE IN THE VIEW OF FISCAL AND MONETARY ISSUES

Introduction. The frequent crises are a vital impediment to growth in Ukraine. One of the reasons is the accumulated imbalances, which objectively arise if ignoring the economic fundamentals in economic policy implementation. The purpose of the article is to study internal imbalances in Ukraine to determine the causes and consequences of economic slack given fiscal and monetary issues. Results. A critical observation of the Quantity Theory of Money approach in the balance between aggregate demand and supply made it possible to reconstruct the Ukrainian economy’s circular motion for the last ten years. The generation of the coincident and leading composite indices confirmed a difference to be at play between aggregate supply and demand. The parametric Early Warning System modeling results showed that an additional percentage of imbalances between aggregate demand and supply increased the likelihood of crises in Ukraine by 4%. The severe influence of the debt factor on macroeconomic dynamics made it possible to build up a quarterly econometric model by retranslating the exponential trend of the domestic public debt accumulation on GDP motion. The developed Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model made it possible to reconstruct the economy’s prospect to move sustainable growth path, subject to implementing the golden rule of public finance. The fiscal multiplier effect offset the short-run crowding-out effect resulting from debt accumulation for financing public investment in favor of increased production in the long term. The significant parameter in this scenario is public investments efficiency, the increased level of which has to be one of the goals of the economic policy implementation. Conclusions. Fiscal-monetary interaction is crucial for counteracting macroeconomic imbalances and activating economic dynamics. Given the rise in public debt in Ukraine due to the Covid-19 pandemic, borrowing should be cautious while performing the fiscal investment expansion to stimulate growth.

A Thermodynamic Measure of Sustainability

A novel thermodynamic approach to the quantification of the “degree of sustainability” is proposed and discussed. The method includes a rigorous -and innovative- conversion procedure of the so-called externalities that leads to their expression in terms of the exergy of their equivalent primary resources consumption. Such a thermodynamic approach suggests a detailed re-evaluation of the concept of sustainability because it is well-known that the Second Law strictly negates the possibility for any open and evolving system to maintain itself in a “sustainable” state without availing itself of a continuous supply of low-entropy (i.e., high specific exergy) input. If a human society is modeled as an open system, its capacity to “grow sustainably” depends not only on how it uses non-renewable resources, but also on the rate at which it exploits the renewable ones. The necessary inclusion of different forms of energy- and material flows in such an analysis constitutes per se an argument in favor of a resource-based exergy metrics. While it is true that the thermodynamically oriented approach proposed here neglects all of the non-thermodynamic attributes of a “sustainable system” (in the Bruntland sense), it is also clear that it constitutes a rigorous basis on which different physically possible scenarios can be rigorously evaluated. Non-thermodynamic indicators can be still used at a “second level analysis” and maintain their usefulness to indicate which one of the “thermodynamically least unsustainable” scenarios is most convenient from an ethical or socio-economic perspective for the considered community or for the society as a whole. The proposed indicator is known as “Exergy Footprint,” and the advantages of its systematic application to the identification of “sustainable growth paths” is discussed in the Conclusions.

Challenges and risks in the process of Russia’s post-pandemic economic recovery

The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 has had a negative impact on economies around the world. The article analyses the macroeconomic indicators characterising the Russian economy after the COVID-19 pandemic. The results of this action on Russia’s global indicators have been compared with those of some countries in the world. The objectives and activities of the “National Action Plan for Employment and Income Recovery, Economic Growth and Long-Term Structural Changes in the Economy” (hereinafter the “National Action Plan”) have been considered. This document sets out the country’s development over the next two years and measures to recover the economy from the COVID-19 pandemic. The Government of the Russian Federation is allocating 5 trillion roubles for the implementation of the “National Action Plan”. Meanwhile, the main objective is to ensure a sustainable economic development and income growth path within two years. The indicators of the main goal to be achieved by the end of 2021 are: sustainable growth of the personal income; reduction of unemployment to 5%; growth of the gross domestic product by 2.5% per annum. In conclusion, the challenges and risks in implementing the “National Action Plan” have been formulated.

The State of Human Capital and Innovativeness of Polish Voivodships in 2004–2018

The category of human capital has increased in importance with the emergence of human capital theory in the 1960s. The interest in innovativeness is a result of successive waves of industrial revolutions and technical progress. The article aims to estimate human capital and innovation in Polish voivodeships 2004–2018 as an essential determinant of socio-economic development in emerging economies. The regional dimension related to human capital and innovativeness is rarely studied in a socio-economic context. Additionally, the main contribution of the paper is that we propose an extraordinary set of variables capturing quantitative and qualitative aspects of regional research. To measure these factors, we propose a set of sub-indices describing the state of human capital and innovation. The delimitation of regions was carried out using the method of Czekanowski. The study results confirmed the polarization of voivodeships in Poland, generally according to Eastern and Western Poland. Unfortunately, it turns out that despite the economic growth in the country in recent years, disparities within the human capital of voivodeships are increasing. This makes it challenging to unleash innovation and enter a faster and more sustainable path of growth.

Inflection Point of Green Total Factor Productivity by Low-Carbon Regulation from Chinese Economics Recovery

The sustainable growth path of emerging economies has transformed from the traditional extensive model to high-quality development. Due to the impulse force of low-carbon regulation, the measurement of input–output efficiency changed into green total factor productivity (GTFP) which considers environmental factors. Past research on GTFP focused on enterprise investments to promote green innovation for their resource allocation efficiency, but green investments are often limited from marketization that is interactively influenced by low-carbon regulation. Therefore, handing green investment to mitigate carbon dioxide emissions for green economics recovery is a big challenge. Then these hypotheses are tested by the main study of 170 cities in China. Results suggested that GTFP has an inverted S-shaped curve with three inflection points and four development stages under the influence of low-carbon regulation. It means that improving green productivity is costly toward making green investments without the driving of green innovation. However, the inflection point of the growth curve—when enterprise investment activities ignore the interaction between low-carbon regulation and green investment policy—will come slowly to a period of high-quality development. Moderating results suggested that the green productivity would be weakened and the inflection point would be delayed by the low-carbon marketization index if the low-carbon regulation intensity was neglected. Therefore, this research advanced an effectively co-ordinate growth curve to search for the inflection point of green economics recovery.

RETRACTED ARTICLE: Application of artificial intelligence and machine learning based on big data analysis in sustainable agriculture

This article has been retracted from publication in the Taylor & Francis journal, Acta Agriculturae Scandinavica, Section B — Soil & Plant Science. Following publication, concerns were raised by multiple third-parties around the content of the special issue and the decision-making process. Following an investigation by the Taylor & Francis Publishing Ethics & Integrity team in full cooperation with the Editor-in-Chief, it was confirmed that this article included in Special Issue titled “ Envisage Computer Modelling and Statistics for Agriculture”, guest edited by Gunasekaran Manogaran was not peer-reviewed appropriately, in line with the Journal's peer review standards and policy. As the stringency of the peer review process is core to the integrity of the publication process, the Editor and Publisher have decided to retract all of the articles within the above-named Special Issue. The journal has not confirmed if the authors were aware of this compromised peer review process. The journal is committed to correcting the scientific record and will fully cooperate with any institutional investigations into this matter. The authors have been informed of this decision. We have been informed in our decision-making by our policy on publishing ethics and integrity and the COPE guidelines.