Party Identification Research Articles

The Influence of Country of Origin in the Process of Party Identification Acquisition

AbstractThousands of Latin Americans migrate to the United States every year. This article seeks to understand how immigrants’ premigration political experiences influence the acquisition of party identification upon arrival in the United States. This research proposes that premigration political experiences influence the acquisition of party identification among Latino immigrants in the United States. Utilizing data from the 2016 Collaborative Multiracial Post-Election Survey (CMPS) and Proyecto Élites Parlamentarias Latinoamericanas (Latin American Parliamentary Elites Project), this paper analyzes how the ideology of the government in power in the immigrants’ country of origin influences party identification among Latino immigrants in the United States. Employing multinomial regression analysis, I demonstrate that the ideology of governments in power in Latin American countries when Latinos migrate influences the party identification of those immigrants in the United States. The results of this study contribute to the conversations on premigration experiences and challenge the applicability of classical theories of party identification for immigrants.

Predictors of U.S. public support for climate aid to developing countries

Effectively responding to global warming requires mitigation and adaptation efforts worldwide. Although developed countries have pledged substantial financial support to help developing countries respond to climate change, these pledges have yet to be fulfilled. A majority of American voters support providing aid to developing nations, however, levels of support differ sharply between Democrats and Republicans. To investigate the predictors of support for climate aid among registered voters in the United States and to assess the effect of political party identification, we conducted hierarchical regression and relative weight analysis on a nationally representative sample of U.S. registered voters (n = 898) surveyed in 2021. Among all voters, the predictors of support for climate aid were: party identification (with more support among Democrats), perceived risk to developing countries, worry about global warming, injunctive beliefs that the U.S. should do more, and global warming belief certainty. Among Democrats, the predictors were: perceived risk to the U.S., worry, injunctive beliefs the U.S. should do more, education, and income. Among Republicans, the predictors were: perceived risk to developing countries, and injunctive beliefs the U.S. should do more. These findings have both theoretical and practical relevance for efforts to build public support for development assistance aimed at reducing climate change.

Party Affiliation in the Southern Electorate

This article chronicles and analyzes the changing state of party affiliation in the American South from the 1990s to the present. Party identification (PID) is examined with data from three survey sources: the American National Election Study (ANES), Cooperative Election Study (CES), and Exit Polls (national and state-level). Emphasis is placed on the changing PID patterns of white, Black, and Hispanic voters South-wide and in individual states. The findings strongly suggest that the current position of Republican electoral dominance will persist for some time to come, though there are multiple reasons why, in certain parts of the South, Democratic affiliation will likely increase.

Well-being foundations of populism in Europe

Models of retrospective voting assume that voters’ preferences and choices depend on their subjective well-being, and thus, the belief that a particular candidate if elected, shall implement policies to improve it. We use this framework to address the populist phenomenon in Europe over the last 20 years. We find an inverse relationship between individual life satisfaction and self-reported support for populist parties (i.e., party identification). We further explore that relationship and identify political trust as one mechanism through which changes in life satisfaction affect the probability of supporting a populist party, especially, if positioned at the radical right or left.

The Microfoundations of Nuclear Proliferation: Evidence from South Korea

Abstract How do South Koreans shape their nuclear proliferation beliefs? Despite growing scholarly research on public attitudes toward nuclearization, we do not fully understand the underlying factors that influence mass opinion on nuclear weapon acquisition. This study tests the effects of structural- and individual-level factors on South Korean public support for nuclear weapon acquisition by creating a novel time-series dataset. Contrary to conventional wisdom, structural variables did not immediately shift South Koreans’ proliferation beliefs. Instead, the effects accumulated over time. North Korea’s ballistic missile launches and nuclear tests gradually increased South Koreans’ support for proliferation. Also, within a short time period, South Korea–U.S. summits had null effects but progressively dampened the armament preferences. Interestingly, North Korea’s denuclearization summits instantly reduced the proliferation beliefs, but, the support for nuclearization surged over time. Regarding individual-level factors, South Koreans’ fear of nuclear imbalance, desire to decide on their own nuclear war, and conservative party identification were positively associated with the support for proliferation. This study enriches existing literature by offering new empirical evidence and contributes to the scholarly debate on the impact of U.S. security assurances on South Koreans’ nuclear proliferation attitudes.

What one is not: a new scale to measure Negative Party Identity in multiparty systems

The concept of negative partisanship has lately become a highly salient topic, yet its current measurements are far from optimal as they do not account for negative partisanship’s nature as a social identity, nor are they applicable to multiparty systems. In this paper, we validate the negative partisanship (NPS) scale. By relying on expert interviews, cognitive pre-tests and a large-N survey in two countries, Germany (N = 1,911) and Italy (N = 1,440), we provide a construct validation using a nomological network based on previous studies and social identity literature. Our results show the applicability of the new instrument, the full five-item version as well as shorter conceptualizations, for the measurement of negative partisanship in multiparty systems.

What Makes Politicians “Religious”? How Identity Congruence Shapes Religious Evaluations

AbstractHow do Americans evaluate politicians’ religiosity? We theorize extra‐religious “identity congruence,” the perceived correspondence between others’ group identities and our own, will powerfully shape evaluations. We test this expectation using data from two large, nationally representative surveys that ask Americans to rate the religiosity of prominent politicians. Consistent with our theory, the strongest predictors of how Americans rate politicians’ religiosity are their congruence on party identification and ideological identity as well as expected alignments with racial identity and Christian nationalism. Respondents’ religious characteristics are relatively weak predictors. And these trends hold regardless of Americans’ knowledge of leaders’ professed religious identity. Patterns are consistent with our theory even when we split samples by party. When we compare ratings between politicians who are widely regarded as irreligious to those who are regarded as conventionally religious, partisan congruence and racial identity largely mitigate the religious advantage of the latter. Racial identity also moderates congruence on key factors. Finally, identity congruence on party, ideology, and Christian nationalism follows expected patterns even among secular Americans for whom “religious” less intuitively implies “my group.” In a time of growing identity‐alignment along partisan, ideological, racial, and religious lines, extra‐religious “identity congruence” powerfully shapes how Americans evaluate politicians’ religiosity.

How does American public opinion react to overt anti-democratic behavior by politicians? Quasi-experimental evidence from the january 6 insurrection

Do American politicians that clearly violate democratic norms lose significant public support, or does public opinion impose little constraint on anti-democratic politicians? Existing studies have examined this fundamental question using hypothetical survey experiments which, while valuable, suffer from ecological validity and weak treatment concerns. I overcome these problems by studying a novel quasi-experiment created by the fact that Donald Trump’s incitement of the January 6 insurrection unexpectedly occurred while Gallup was conducting a nationally representative public opinion survey using random digit dialing. Comparing party identification among respondents that happened to be interviewed just before, and just after, January 6, 2021 suggests that the Republican Party retained 78% of its pre-insurrection support base during the first 1.5 weeks. Even this modest loss was short-lived—in February 2021 the Republican Party already stood at 93% of its pre-insurrection support level. While not zero, the public constraint on anti-democratic behavior is remarkably limited.

Perilaku Memilih Masyarakat pada Pilkada Kabupaten Sidoarjo Tahun 2020

This study generally aims to find out the voting bahavior in the Sidoarjo 2020 election. There are three independent variables (X); Party identification (X1), group ties (X2), and candidate competency (X3). Meanwhile, there is one dependent variable: Voting Behavior in the 2020 Sidoarjo election (Y). Using quantitative methods and is included in the explanatory research category, and based on three voting behavior theory: sociological approach (Columbia school, psychologica approach (Michigan school), and rational approach. There were 100 respondents spread across all districts (18 districts) in Sidoarjo. From the results of the research and statistical analysis carried out, it is known that three supporting party variables (X1), Group Association (X2), and Candidate Competency (X3) are related to Voting Behavior in the 2020 Sidoarjo election (Y). In addition, it is known that voters for candidate number one (BHS-Taufiq) are more likely to be driven by the candidate’s competency variable, while voters for candidate number two (Mudhlor-Subandi) are more driven by party giver variables and group ties.

The AKP’s Appeal to the Kurdish Vote in Turkey: Exploring the Role of an Outsider Party Identity

In the early 2000s, the Justice and Development Party (AKP) rose to power by contesting the electoral dominance of pro-Kurdish parties in the Kurdish-majority provinces of Turkey. The existing literature has accounted for the AKP's popularity among the Kurdish population by providing three distinct perspectives: economic performance, the use of ‘Islam as cement,’ and pledges to safeguard the ethnic rights of the Kurds as a ruling party. This article introduces a more encompassing perspective in understanding the AKP’s popularity among the Kurdish population. It argues that these three issues were encapsulated in the AKP’s outsider identity based on its stance against the injustices committed by the Turkish state. In doing so, the article offers a two-dimensional definition of outsider parties, one dimension based on exclusion from state ideology, the other based on the party’s own discourse. The broader implication of this study is that outsider parties, as part of their power-seeking strategy, can mobilize groups with different political goals by creating a bonding effect among them against a repressive state ideology.

The long and winding road. The ideological evolution of the Italian radical left in the Second Republic: the case of Partito della Rifondazione Comunista

ABSTRACT This article analyses the ideological evolution of the Partito della Rifondazione Comunista (P.R.C.), the main representative of the radical left in Italy in the so-called Second Republic. The focus on the ideological nature of P.R.C. is justified because as a ‘purifying party’ the debates on the ideological nature of the party have played a crucial role in the process of defining party identity. In this sense, this article differentiates three main phases in the ideological evolution of the party. Finally, this analysis reinforces the notion that the ideological changes that the P.R.C. has undergone, in its constant redefinition of a neo-communist identity, are determined by its position vis-à-vis the political, historical, and cultural heritage of the Italian communist tradition embodied in the P.C.I.

Toeing the Party Line: The Asymmetric Influence of Feminism on Partisans' Participation

Abstract What is the relationship between feminism and political participation? How does partisanship moderate this relationship? Prior research shows that gender attitudes, particularly sexism, rather than gender identity per se, increasingly shape vote choice and participation in US elections. However, the role played by feminism in voter behaviour remains scarcely understood. As feminist identification crosses partisanship, we argue that its impact on engagement with campaigns and turnout depends on party ID. Therefore, we expect feminist identity and how it intersects with either aligned or conflicting partisan identity to impact partisans' participation asymmetrically. Using data from the 2016 and 2020 American National Election Studies, our results support these expectations. Holding the mutually reinforcing identities of Democrat and feminist has a significant mobilizing impact, while holding the cross-cutting identities of Republican and feminist tends to lead to a decline in political participation.

The Demise of the Left Parties in Israel: From Party Identification to a Negative Partisanship

The left parties are the oldest political institutions in Israel. They were founded before the establishment of the State and were the dominant political force in its first decades. However, since the 1990s, there has been a consistent decline in their power, to the point where, in the last Knesset elections held in 2022, the left parties barely passed the threshold. This article explains the decline of the left parties and attempts to answer where the voters went. A combination of several local and global events that occurred in recent years caused the left parties to distance themselves from the narrative of Zionist Socialism characterizing them and to adopt a new narrative, which less inspires identification of Jewish voters. The article’s main argument is that the voters did not disappear but only changed their political behavior from a state of party identification and voting for the left parties to a state of political opposition and voting against the rightist parties. To illustrate the pattern of behavior, voting data for the Knesset in two communities with different demographic characteristics are presented: Kibbutz Mizra, a socialist commune identified with left voters, and Beit-Shean, a town that is a stronghold of rightist voters. The conclusion is that the way for the left parties to return to dominance is through reintegrating the Jewish identity with the values of justice and equality.

Administrator Political Orientations and Views on Federal Encroachment

Does a public administrator’s political orientation color how they perceive the actions and activities of the federal government? Using a long-running national survey, I measure the impact of state administrators’ party identification and ideology on several measures of federal encroachment. I find that self-identified Democratic and liberal administrators are less likely to believe that the federal government is encroaching on state actions and hold more positive evaluations of encroachment when it occurs. Additionally, I find that these beliefs are conditioned on the composition of the federal government, with the largest differences occurring under a Democratic-controlled White House and Congress.

The impact of institutional factor on the dynamics of electoral Volatility in Post-Communist Countries of europe

The article examines the influence of the institutional factor on the dynamics of electoral volatility in post- communist European countries. The party and electoral systems were chosen as institutional variables. It is noted that a noticeable influence on the level of electoral mobility in the group of countries under consideration is not segmentation, but polarization of party systems. The author emphasizes that the small ideological distance between the parties competing in the electoral field hinders the formation of stable party identification of voters, which contributes to the growth of electoral volatility. The author comes to the conclusion that the institutional factor as a whole has a limited effect on the dynamics of changing party preferences of voters. Therefore it should be recognized that the factor of political culture continues to have a predominant impact on the electoral behavior of citizens of post-communist European countries.

Race And Racial Perceptions Shape Burden Tolerance For Medicaid And The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program.

Safety-net programs do not reach all eligible Americans, partly because of administrative burden, or experiencing bureaucratic obstacles in obtaining and maintaining program benefits. This burden often disproportionately affects historically marginalized groups, adding concerns about equity. We used a national survey to examine public thinking about the acceptability of administrative burdens imposed by states when implementing Medicaid and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program and the role of race in these considerations. We found that support for state actions associated with six types of burden was unchanged when respondents were informed about disparate effects by race. Neither racial identity nor prejudice toward other racial groups was associated with support for policies imposing higher burdens. However, non-Hispanic White respondents with higher levels of racial resentment were more supportive of policies that would create burden, whereas respondents who believed that burdens had disparate effects on historically disadvantaged groups favored less burdensome alternatives. Also associated with lower support for more burdensome policies were responses indicative of respondents' empathy, concerns about ability to manage burdens, Democratic party identification, and program experience.

Kampanye dan Perilaku Memilih di Indonesia Studi Kasus Pemilihan Umum 2019 Dapil Jawa Timur 11 dan Dapil 7 Sulawesi Selatan

The nature of democracy aims to present an organized government to realize the individual rights of citizens, so that an open proportional electoral system allows compulsory voting in democratic parties including choosing legislative candidates. In a more complex multi-party system such as in Indonesia, political parties are encouraged to be able to carefully understand the behavior of voters who sociologically and psychologically determine their political orientation not based on party identification but on the individual's leadership. Through this research, it is known that the quality of candidates' shops is based on endorsements or support from central figures in a constituency. From the perspective of symbolic convergence, it can be concluded that when campaigning, the basic message that is the main force of a political party today is about the ability of its cadres both in the region and in the center, the cadre in question can be from the class of legislative candidates or the Chairman of the party, which is then validated by regional figures. That issue is reflected in the success of Willy Aditya and Andi Izmand Maulana Padjalangi winning the 2019 elections, so the theory of symbolic convergence can be scientifically used as a reference for drafting campaign strategies.

Public Television for Liberals? The Demographic and Behavioral Characteristics of The PBS Newshour Viewers

Non-academic sources suggest that PBS, an American public broadcast service, mostly serves liberals. However, there is little scholarly evidence on the demographic and behavioral characteristics of those who get news about government and politics from PBS. Using the data from the American National Election Study’s 2020 Time Series (N=8,280), this research examines how PBS viewership is related to party identification, ideology, education, sex, race, political knowledge, religion, income and age. It also explores how PBS viewers are different from MSNBC, CNN, and Fox News viewers in their political attitudes, behaviors, and beliefs.

How to convince in a televised debate: the application of machine learning to analyze why viewers changed their winner perception during the 2021 German chancellor discussion

What causes viewers to change their winner perception during a televised debate? The article addresses this question, drawing on a large-N field study of the 2021 chancellor debate in Germany, which contains survey and real-time response data for 4613 participants. Using machine learning techniques, we identify determinants of why participants change their opinion about who is winning the discussion during the debate. Our analysis based on random forest and decision tree models shows in detail, first, what factors drive debate winner perceptions in the course of televised debate reception. Second, we reveal what combinations of political predispositions and candidate statements are necessary to change the viewers’ debate winner perception. In doing so, third, we expand the toolbox of empirical debate research with our analysis based on machine learning algorithms. Our findings indicate that pre-debate chancellor preference and candidate images play a crucial role in determining post-debate perception change, while party identification is less important in predicting changes. We can also directly identify several speech moments in the debate that shifted viewer perception, a novel approach to evaluating political debate performance.

Citizens’ awareness of electoral campaign pledges

The theory of promissory representation (Mansbridge, 2003) proposes that voters select parties based on the pledges they made during the campaign. The elected parties then fulfill their promises and at the next election, voters reward or sanction the parties based on their pledge-fulfillment record. However, a fundamental assumption of promissory representation remains to be tested. If voters use party pledges to decide which party to vote for, they need to know which party made which pledges. To test the degree of awareness of citizens to party pledges, (a factor we dub pledge awareness), we included a module in the 2019 Canadian Election Study (CES) that tasks citizens to associate correctly six pledges found in the different electoral platforms with their respective parties. We find that while citizens may not know all six pledges included in our study, nonetheless, the most frequently selected answers to our pledge awareness questions are the correct ones. We also find that party identification and the information resources at the disposal of citizens play a large role in the citizen’s capacity to succeed at this matching task. Our study indicates that respondents tend to be more aware of the pledges made by the party they identify with, and well-informed respondents are more aware of pledges made by the other parties.