Party Identification Research Articles

Inside the ‘black box’ of COVID-19 vaccination beliefs: Revealing the relative importance of public confidence and news consumption habits

RationalePresident Biden's goal for 70% of U.S. adults to have received at least one vaccine by July 4, 2021 was not achieved. ObjectiveThe aim of this research was to assess the ‘black box’ of positive COVID-19 vaccination beliefs to determine the relative importance of each factor and thus inform well-targeted and tailored health promotion efforts. MethodsA cross-sectional survey was conducted in a sample of U.S. adults (N = 1656), assessing the influence of demographic characteristics, cognitive effects, public confidence, and news source variety and evaluation on positive COVID-19 vaccination beliefs. ResultsOverall, the strongest predictor of positive beliefs was high confidence in public health officials and political institutions to handle the COVID-19 pandemic effectively, yet negative sentiments toward COVID-19 research and science and COVID-19 vaccine ambivalence reduced the likelihood that beliefs were positive. Cognitive effects and public confidence were identified as key predictors of positive COVID-19 vaccination beliefs over and above party identification. Importantly, high levels of confidence in science and government were mostly driven by positive evaluations of liberal news sources. High levels of COVID-19 science backlash were mostly driven by positive evaluations of conservative news sources. ConclusionsTo motivate COVID-19 vaccination among hesitant or resistant groups in the population, health promotion efforts should seek to reinforce positive COVID-19 vaccination beliefs by increasing public confidence and by reducing COVID-19 science backlash, largely by choosing specific news media and social media platforms (e.g., Breitbart, Fox News, and Facebook) as channels for health promotion and health information dissemination.

Unstable Identities: The Decline of Partisanship in Contemporary Chile

Between 1990 and 2018 Chile experienced one of Latin America’s most dramatic declines in party identification, from 80% in the early 1990s to under 20% in 2016. This decline seems puzzling given a highly institutionalized and programmatic party system, and low levels of ideological convergence. This paper argues that, to a large extent, the decrease in partisanship can be understood as a consequence of the erosion of the main political cleavage that articulated the political landscape throughout this period: the dissolution of the conflict between the supporters of the previous military regime (1973–1990) and the advocates of democracy. Because this conflict was the key driver of political identities following the dictatorship, as it faded overtime, particularly after conservative parties distanced themselves from the military regime for electoral reasons, partisans lost an important reason to feel attached to political parties. More broadly, the paper argues that unless political identities are continually reinforced by political actors, they are unlikely to remain stable sources of identification.

Extreme party animals: Effects of political identification and ideological extremity

AbstractMany Americans’ political identity is more relevant, salient, and central than their American identity. Political parties provide party members with an identity and belief system. Political identities influence identity‐based ideologies which increase affective polarization and potential anti‐social intergroup conflict between political parties. The purpose of the current research is to determine how political party identification and ideological extremity influences affective polarization for Republicans and Democrats across two studies. Participants in both studies completed a survey which measured political identification, ideological extremity, and uniquely operationalized measures of affective polarization, including support for co‐partisans, attitudes about political rivals, emotions towards political rivals, action tendencies towards political rivals, and perceived threat from political rivals. Study 1 (N = 530) used responses to the survey from a convenience sample crowdsourced by Amazon Mechanical Turk (AMT) in 2018. Study 1 showed that higher political party identification is associated with significantly higher affective polarization for members of both parties and that ideological extremity partially mediates this effect. Study 2 (N = 260) used a 2020 AMT sample to replicate Study 1’s results. Findings extend our understanding of identity‐based ideological extremity and suggest that affective polarization could be driven by political party identification and partisans’ ideological extremity.

Macropartisanship with Independents

Abstract MacKuen, Erikson, and Stimson’s classic article “Macropartisanship” extended the study of political behavior from static analyses of American elections to the dynamics of partisanship between elections. This launched new frontiers of research, such as studying the effects of presidential approval and economic indices on aggregate party identification. However, the Macropartisanship literature made an important oversight: changes in partisanship between elections are usually from one partisan group to identification as an independent, or vice versa. A single measure of aggregate partisanship, like the original Macropartisanship measure, leaves out independents altogether. This has important theoretical and empirical consequences that are evident in an era of increasingly strong partisanship. We conceive of Macropartisanship as a compositional variable and study how its components are affected by changes in economic sentiment and presidential approval.

The partisan consequences of liberation mentality: Ruling party support in Zimbabwe across space and time

In autocratic-leaning countries, the level of genuine public support for ruling parties and reasons driving it are often unclear. While such parties often rely on violence, electoral manipulation, and corruption to help maintain power, maintaining legitimate popularity is the ideal. Parties that emerged from national liberation struggles and other extraordinary events are thought to have developed strong branding and organizational structures. This paper tests the determinants of ruling party identification among Zimbabweans through seven geo-coded rounds of Afrobarometer data. First, genuine ruling party support is estimated to be exaggerated in public opinion surveys, but not insignificant. The ruling party’s base of support is centered in rural areas that experienced the greatest concentration of guerrilla activity during the liberation war. Respondents from the liberation generation are also more likely to support the ruling party, and view the party as tied to nationalism. The liberation war generated and solidified ruling party stronghold areas through democratic advantages such as nationalistic branding and robust party organization structures as well as autocratic tools such as the capture of traditional leaders, politicization of the military, and the use of violence against dissidents.

Negative Partisanship in Latin America

ABSTRACTThe literature on comparative partisanship has demonstrated the low rates of party identification in Latin America. Such low rates are commonly interpreted as a sign of citizens’ disengagement with parties and democracy in the region. This article revisits this interpretation by considering voters’ adverse affection toward a party, or negative partisanship. It shows that examining the negative side of partisanship can help us develop a clearer perspective on the partisan linkages in the electorate. To support this claim, this study analyzes an original conjoint experiment in Argentina and Mexico, as well as two other public opinion surveys fielded in Brazil, Chile, and Ecuador. The study presents empirical evidence indicating that negative partisanship helps voters without an attachment to a party to distinguish themselves from nonpartisans, is independent of positive partisanship, and is different from a general distrust of the democratic system.

‘Enter parliament but never become part of it’: How have the Greens in the United Kingdom approached opposition?

The Greens in the United Kingdom have benefitted from the fragmentation of the party system and the creation of devolved institutions, achieving consistent representation at multiple levels of British politics in recent years. However, we know little about what they have done in these positions. This study uses interviews with Green legislators to investigate how they have interpreted the task of opposition at Westminster, Holyrood and Stormont. We show that Green legislators’ approaches to opposition have been influenced by their party identity, and that differences in approach between the institutions have largely been determined by contrasting political opportunity structures, rather than parliamentary rules. These findings highlight the importance of party as a factor shaping opposition strategy and the varied roles which opposition parties can play within the UK political system.

Conditions of proximity and directional voting: Voter sophistication, political information, and party identification

This paper contributes to the debate among supporters of the proximity and the directional models of vote choice. It provides a two-fold contribution: first, I utilize a series of critical tests which allow for a straightforward identification of proximity and directional voters and the aggregation of the respective shares at the party, election, and country levels. Secondly, I focus on the reasons which reinforce these alternative or complimentary models. In comparison to the standard proximity model, directional voters are less educated and less informed. They are also more likely to select opposition parties and favor actors with somewhat unclear ideological platforms. At the election level, directional voting is also driven by party system polarization.

Do We Know Politicians’ True Selves From the Media? Exploring the Relationship Between Political Media Exposure and Perceived Political Authenticity

Authenticity is an increasingly important factor in citizens’ evaluations of political candidates and their voting decisions. As citizens value political authenticity, politicians attempt to appear true to themselves in the public eye. However, little research has examined how these perceptions of politicians as more or less authentic are constructed. This study examines how citizens form perceptions of politicians’ authenticity and particularly sheds light on the relationship between political media exposure and perceived political authenticity. Drawing on the literature on performed authenticity in social media, personalized media coverage, and information processing, we examine the effects of exposure to political information in different media on perceptions of political authenticity and its subdimensions. Results from an online quota survey in Germany ( N = 1,210) show that differences in perceived political authenticity are not simply determined by citizens’ political attitudes but can also be explained by their frequency of exposure to political information in different media types. When citizens use private TV news, political accounts on social media, and follow candidate profiles, they perceive politicians as more authentic. Our analyses also suggest that some effects of media exposure on perceived political authenticity are conditioned by citizens’ party identification and their tendency to select ideologically congruent political information.

Who prefers nonpartisan elections? The role of individual party ID and county partisanship

To what extent does the public prefer local government officials to be selected via nonpartisan, as opposed to partisan, elections? Do preferences vary across different types of local offices? Do Democrats and Republicans systematically differ in their preference for nonpartisan versus partisan local elections? Using a novel dataset based on the 2018 and 2020 CES, I find that while nonpartisan elections are the modal preference for local offices, the proportion of voters favoring this model varies with office-type, party ID, and whether respondents live in counties with a majority of their co-partisans. Specifically, Democrats are more likely to prefer nonpartisan elections for local offices than are Republicans, but there is only evidence for these inter-party differences in Republican-leaning counties. County partisanship also has a significant effect on intra-party variation in preference for nonpartisan elections to certain local offices.

Political ideology and pandemic lifestyles: the indirect effects of empathy, authoritarianism, and threat

BackgroundIn this paper, we integrate theory and research from sociology, psychology, and political science to develop and test a mediation model that helps to explain why political conservatism is often associated with pandemic behaviors and lifestyles that are inconsistent with public health recommendations for COVID-19.MethodsUsing national data from the 2021 Crime, Health, and Politics Survey (n = 1743), we formally test the indirect effects of political conservatism (an index of Republican party identification, conservative political orientation, right-wing news media consumption, and 2020 Trump vote) on pandemic lifestyles (an index of social distancing, hand sanitizing, mask usage, and vaccination) through the mechanisms of empathy (concern about the welfare of others), authoritarian beliefs (authoritarian aggressiveness and acquiescence to authority), and pandemic threat perceptions (threats to self and to the broader society).ResultOur results confirm that political conservatism is associated with riskier pandemic lifestyles. We also find that this association is partially mediated by lower levels of empathy, higher levels of authoritarian beliefs, and lower levels of perceived pandemic threat.ConclusionsUnderstanding why political conservatism is associated with riskier pandemic lifestyles may eventually lead us to ways of identifying and overcoming widespread cultural barriers to critical pandemic responses.

Transforming the Party Identity of German Radical Right: In Search of Female Support

The crises of the beginning of the 21st century changed the political landscape of modern Germany, which was manifested in increasing right-wing radicalism. As the party identity of the far-right transforms, they shift from being marginal nationalist anti-migrant forces, contradicting the democratic culture of Germany, to movements which defend identity and rights, including womens rights. Thus, the far-right in Germany claim to become a part of the civic culture that includes the right to criticize and disagree with the governments policies. The article examines how far-right parties interact with the female electorate on the example of the Alternative for Germany party. The study highlights the main activities of the Alternative for Germany in attracting womens votes, based on the analysis of the partys political program, interviews with party members and media materials. These activities include the orientation towards the socio-economic issues, concerning women, the consideration of the migrant problem through the prism of the Muslim threat towards women, the protection of the interests of conservative women, the attraction of women as party leaders. The author pays a special attention to female right-wing activists, as independent actors in the political life of Germany. Based on the cases of Beate Zschpe, Francisca Berit and #120db movement, the following interests of female activists were determined: opposing to gender mainstreaming, which threatens the traditional family structure, and opposing to Islam as a source of violence against women. Alternative for Germany aims at strengthening its positions among all women, whose rights are an integral part of European identity, therefore, the actualization of womens involvement in the movement becomes not only instrumental, but also of value nature. More radically oriented female activists get involved in the European Identitarian movement.

Polarization and tipping points

Research has documented increasing partisan division and extremist positions that are more pronounced among political elites than among voters. Attention has now begun to focus on how polarization might be attenuated. We use a general model of opinion change to see if the self-reinforcing dynamics of influence and homophily may be characterized by tipping points that make reversibility problematic. The model applies to a legislative body or other small, densely connected organization, but does not assume country-specific institutional arrangements that would obscure the identification of fundamental regularities in the phase transitions. Agents in the model have initially random locations in a multidimensional issue space consisting of membership in one of two equal-sized parties and positions on 10 issues. Agents then update their issue positions by moving closer to nearby neighbors and farther from those with whom they disagree, depending on the agents' tolerance of disagreement and strength of party identification compared to their ideological commitment to the issues. We conducted computational experiments in which we manipulated agents' tolerance for disagreement and strength of party identification. Importantly, we also introduced exogenous shocks corresponding to events that create a shared interest against a common threat (e.g., a global pandemic). Phase diagrams of political polarization reveal difficult-to-predict transitions that can be irreversible due to asymmetric hysteresis trajectories. We conclude that future empirical research needs to pay much closer attention to the identification of tipping points and the effectiveness of possible countermeasures.

The Presidential Primaries: Media Reporting and Candidate Qualities

In the growing field of literature on media reporting and politics, there is a vacancy of knowledge on the study of factors that lead to media reporting. That is, what variables negatively or positively relate to media reporting levels? In this paper, I study that question by looking at data from the presidential primary elections of 2016 and 2020. I look at reporting across over 300 media outlets, for 45 candidates. I analyze eight separate variables and their relationship to media reporting rates. I find strong relationships between reporting rates versus campaign contributions and party identification.

Moderation of Radical Right‐wing Populist Parties in Western European Governments – A Comparative Analysis

AbstractMore and more Western European radical right‐wing populist parties participate in the governments of their respective countries. At least some of these parties moderate—that is, become less radical—once they join the government; others, however, do not. Although the literature has addressed such moderation, the conditions that lead to it have not been analyzed comprehensively. In this paper, we use a fuzzy‐set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA, N = 14) to determine what conditions are consistently associated with moderation across cases. We find that the degree of governmental responsibility a party takes over is as important as its internal dynamic. In a ruling coalition, compromises must be found, which can create high internal tensions within the radical right‐wing populist party. Joining government can thus have its price: a crisis of party identity and a strong compulsion to moderate.

What are the Determinants of Public Support for Climate Policies? A Review of the Empirical Literature

Abstract Climate change is one of the most challenging problems of our times. To be effective, climate policies need to receive citizens’ approval. The objective of this article is to examine both the extent of individuals’ support for different climate policies and key determinants of policy support. To this end, an overview of the related empirical literature is provided. The article shows that the empirical literature on public climate policy support is very diverse in terms of concepts, measures of policy support and empirical approaches. Moreover, the bulk of the existing empirical literature has a strong U.S. focus. The article concludes that public support for climate policies is rather a matter of climate change beliefs and party identification, and not primarily a question of socio-demographic background. The article also offers suggestions for future research as well as policy recommendations.

Ideological proximity, issue importance, and vote choice

This paper investigates what proportion of voters select their candidate based on policy proximity in a spatial voting framework and evaluates policy proximity's importance for vote choices. We develop a novel procedure to identify proximity voting and directly estimate the weights of policies from vote choices. Using the American National Election Studies (ANES) for 1996–2008 and nationally representative replication data from Leeper and Robison’s (2020) survey experiments, we find that more than 80% of voters choose the most policy proximate candidate. Among these voters, we find that a one standard deviation change in relative proximity for an extremely important issue has a similar substantive effect on vote choice as partisan identification (moving from Independent to a Not Very Strong Democrat or Republican). Together, these findings suggest that policy positions and issue importance influence citizens' vote choices even after controlling for party identification and demographic characteristics.

A global perspective on party organizations. Validating the Varieties of Party Identity and Organization Dataset (V-Party)

Party organization is a central concept in comparative politics. Yet, data on party organizational features is sparse, scattered and available for a limited set of countries and parties. To advance global research on party organizations, we present the Varieties of Party Identity and Organization Dataset (V-Party) – the most comprehensive dataset to date, including a wide range of information about organizational features and party stances of more than 1900 parties in 168 countries between 1970 and 2019. In this paper, we focus particular attention on new measures that relate to parties' territorial reach, ties to social organizations, candidate nomination procedures, personalization, and internal cohesion. We validate these new measures using Adcock and Collier's (2001) three-pronged validation approach, looking at content, criterion and construct validity, to showcase and emphasize the potential of V-Party.

Follow the scientists? How beliefs about the practice of science shaped COVID-19 views

“Follow the science” became the mantra for responding to COVID-19 pandemic. However, for the public this also meant “follow the scientists”, and this led to uneasiness as some viewed scientists as not credible. We investigate how beliefs about the way scientists develop their findings affect pandemic-related views. Our analysis shows that beliefs about scientists' objectivity predict views regrading coronavirus-related risks, behavioral changes, and policy priorities. While political party identity also predicts views about COVID-19-related concerns, these vary by political leaders whose approaches embraced versus dismissed science-based strategies, highlighting the importance of perceptions of scientists in shaping pandemic-related attitudes and beliefs.

Italy in times of protest and negative voting: An introduction

The classic heuristics of voting behaviour have been eroded overtime especially in well-established democracies. Ideology, party identification, and social class have been gradually replaced by short-period factors. In particular, the personalization has represented an innovative variable that significantly contributes to explain voting behaviour. Cross-pressures between party identification, candidate assessments and issue preferences paved the way to the diffusion of protest voting, both against the élite and the system. In this respect, Italy represents a very interesting case from both a theoretical and an empirical point view considering the presence of protest parties and the important diffusion of anti-system movements which surfed the protest to consolidate their positions. The editors conceived this special issue aiming at analysing and measuring the impact of protest/negative voting in Italy between 2016 and 2020, a period in which protest parties and voters’ discontent have significantly increased. Data presented by the different papers confirm, albeit under different perspectives, the relevance of this peculiar form of political behaviour.