Participatory Scenario Research Articles

Modelling the Banni social-ecological system using participatory system dynamics for building insights on invasive species management and stakeholder engagement

Invasive species are a significant driver of environmental change in social-ecological systems (SES) globally. Given that SES are inherently complex adaptive systems (CAS), they continuously reorganize themselves and adapt to change, including changes in ecological composition, as well as in associated lives and livelihoods. Decision-making on invasive species management in such systems can be contested and fraught with tradeoffs. The Banni Grasslands in Kutch, India, is one such system where the introduction of Prosopisjuliflora (P.juliflora), an invasive woody species, has over decades resulted in deeply coupled social-ecological change. Removal of P.juliflora for land restoration is as of date a contested policy choice. Through a participatory transdisciplinary process comprising workshops and consultations with the local community (Maldharis), civil society and researchers involved in long term research on Banni, a system dynamics simulation model was developed which synthesizes the SES dynamics as a set of feedback loops. The model was used to simulate ‘what-if’ scenarios of interest up to 2050, to study consequences of restoration and the impact of climate extremes, to generate insights which could be useful in aiding decision making. The runs show how vis-à-vis a Business-As-Usual Scenario, restoration could help Maldharis increase livestock populations and livestock income, although there would still be a limit to the growth, with livestock reaching a higher normal. The runs show how it would also mean a loss in the P.juliflora-dependent charcoal-based income and livelihoods, and the extent of the loss, raising the question of finding alternative livelihoods. In a climate extremes scenario, the system, being more resource-intensive owing to growing livestock population, and loss of the relatively climate proof P.julilfora-based income, counterintuitively shows higher sensitivity to climate change impacts resulting in more pronounced impact on income variation. In order to engage stakeholders via ‘live’ simulation and scenario building, a user-friendly app encoding the simulation model was developed and used to carry out a participatory scenario planning exercise with the community to allow for live appraisal of the scenarios and their implications for decision-making. The paper summarizes insights from the simulation runs and from taking the app back to the community.

Bracing urban governance against climate crises: How to integrate high reliability into strategic decision‐making?

AbstractTurning cities socio‐ecologically resilient is one of the pressing challenges in the face of ongoing climate change and accompanying extreme weather events. Despite concentrated efforts within specific urban domains, there exists a necessity for a coordinating mechanism that can concurrently monitor signals of slowly maturing long‐term crises, such as global warming and swiftly intervene to mitigate urgent threats, such as catastrophic floods. This article explores the potential of high reliability principles to inform such a governance mechanism through a novel policy operations room (POR) framework, conceptualizing urban strategic goals as critical infrastructure. We analyze the conditions for integrating elements from top‐down crisis management with bottom‐up participatory scenario exercises and policy simulations in urban governance. Based on pre‐ and post‐POR interviews and meeting transcripts in three Finnish cities we examine the regulative, normative, and cognitive aspects of integration. The analysis indicates that the implementation of a high reliability framework in urban settings can provide valuable support for addressing challenges induced by climate change.

A meta-network analysis of methodological specifications for system dynamics modelling application in agricultural food systems

This paper aims to review existing applications of system dynamics modelling in agricultural food systems and draw insights from the various modelling procedures in order to highlight best-practice guidelines on methodological specifications for SD modelling. A meta-network analysis was used to identify existing studies that have applied SD modelling in agriculture. Using an algorithm that automatically clusters closely connected research articles based on Boolean search strings that look at the title, keywords, abstract, and digital object identifier (DOI) of the journal articles, 354 journal articles were selected for in-depth content analysis.Based on the synthesised trends, two criteria for determining the type of modelling process and model type to apply for the model conceptualisation step are: (i) the immediate end goal of the modelling process, and (ii) data availability. Participatory modelling is appropriate when there is limited data and model outputs will inform the implementation of interventions by stakeholders. For action research focusing on well-researched food systems with substantial data available, the semi-participatory modelling process can be adopted, and quantitative SD models can be solitarily used. A key contribution of this paper is the proposed procedure for emergent participatory scenario development within the system dynamics modelling process.

Scenario planning for climate adaptation and management: a high-level synthesis and standardization of methodology

Scenario planning is a tool used to explore a set of plausible futures shaped by specific trajectories. When applied in participatory contexts, it is known as participatory scenario planning (PSP), which has grown in its usage for planning, policy, and decision-making within the context of climate change. There has been no high-level synthesis of systematic reviews covering the overall state and direction of PSP for climate adaptation and management. We draw from four systematic reviews on PSP published between 2015 and 2021 to substantiate the credibility of the process and identify a set of standard practices to make PSP a more accessible and usable tool for not only researchers, but policymakers, practitioners, and other end users who may benefit from PSP. We summarize and synthesize the range of PSP processes and characteristics, highlighting four common trends that provoke additional inquiry: PSP’s contribution to social learning and bias, the varying use of quantitative information in scenario development, issues related to carrying out monitoring and evaluation, and the varying completion of practices recommended by established PSP literature. We propose four processes as integral to maximizing PSP’s usability for end users and recommend these areas for further study: identifying social imbalances throughout the PSP process, recognizing bias as inherent to PSP, explicitly addressing, and incorporating uncertainty, and allocating resources for monitoring and evaluation.

Assessing nature’s contributions to people in a peri-urban protected area, southeast Brazil: integrating feedback loops and participatory scenario planning

ABSTRACT Urban expansion is a key driver of change that has been affecting nature’s contributions to people (NCP) in peri-urban regions near metropolitan areas. In southeast Brazil, Campinas Environmental Protected Area (EPA) is a peri-urban, sustainable-use protected area located within the metropolis of Campinas. Campinas EPA provides relevant NCP at the local and regional level, including water provision for 1.2 million people, nature-based tourism and food production. We conducted a participatory, qualitative assessment of past and future trends of NCP at Campinas EPA, in collaboration with the management council of the protected area. We collected data through direct observation, semi-structured interviews and scenario workshops. In our research process, we innovate using the NCP framework, a concept acknowledging multiple values and knowledge systems, coupled with ecosystem services, a concept already understood by management councilors. To assess past trends (2000–2020), we built a causal-loop diagram which depicts an amplifying feedback loop that fosters change towards an urban-dominated state. To assess future trends (2020–2040), we facilitated scenario planning workshops to create and contrast a business-as-usual and a desirable future for NCP, illustrated in the form of artistic panels. We identified a local agroecological farm that represents a seed of good anthropocenes – i.e. the farm is an innovative example of what a positive future could look like, thus providing relevant evidence on how to achieve a desirable scenario. Our findings shed light on how urban expansion within peri-urban areas impacts NCP and suggest strategies for positive transformations.

Recipe for a scenario: Moving from vision to actionable pathways towards sustainable futures

In this paper we present an overview of future-oriented research in sustainability science and place-based research and offer a tool for researchers and community partners to use to guide participatory scenario planning activities that result in actionable steps toward achieving sustainable futures. Within place-based community-engaged research projects, future-oriented methods, such as visioning and participatory scenario planning, have been increasingly utilized as an approach to integrate diverse voices and foster positive change. However, this emerging literature contains some overlapping concepts and approaches that require clarification before adoption. We review common definitions of scenarios, visions, and participatory scenario planning; benefits and challenges of conducting a participatory scenario planning process in place-based research; and three actionable frameworks (Three Horizons, Nature Futures Framework, Sustainable Futures Scenarios) that can inform participatory scenario planning. We then highlight gaps in the literature regarding how to conduct a participatory scenario planning process and introduce a tool named “Recipe for a Scenario” to guide the facilitation of scenarios workshops and co-create actionable pathways towards desirable futures. Our tool (and accompanying workbook that structures a scenarios workshop) supports cross-disciplinary community-engaged projects focused on bringing about positive change in a medium-term timeframe (approximately 20 years) to support more sustainable human-environment dynamics.

“We don’t have a lot of trees, but by God, do we have a lot of fish”: imagining postcolonial futures for the Nunatsiavut fishing industry

Telling stories can be an empowering exercise, providing important insights into the values and priorities of the storytellers. This article shares stories told during a participatory scenario planning process among Inuit, an Indigenous People of northern Canada, Greenland, and Alaska, USA. This research takes place in Nunatsiavut, a land claim area in Labrador, Canada, to explore how visions provide insights into postcolonial futures for the fishing industry. Beginning in 2019, a group of fisheries stakeholders and managers came together to create a visioning process that would help them to develop consensus around priorities for the industry. Facilitated by university researchers, Inuit in the commercial fishing industry participated in an iterative data-collection process that involved interviews and a workshop. This article shares what was found during the scenario-planning process and position stories of the future within the context of Indigenous sovereignty.

Combining the multi-level perspective framework with participatory scenario development to explore the many facets of food system transitions in Germany

Transitions to more sustainable food systems are urgently needed, but they are also very complex and hard to achieve. The integration of transdisciplinary approaches into transition research can help to understand and promote sustainable food system transitions, but remains an agenda item in this research field. To fill this gap, this article describes how the multi-level perspective (MLP) can be used as a framework for explorative, participatory scenario development. On the one hand, MLP provides scholars with a framework for understanding the dynamics of transitions. On the other hand, participatory scenario development brings together academic and non-academic actors and perspectives to explore and promote possible development pathways. Based on this framework, researchers and practitioners jointly co-created four scenarios of how the landscape of five relevant European food innovations located in established food systems or niches (alternative sources of proteins, prosumer initiatives, regional value chains, school meal programs, and dietary interventions) might change by 2040 and further explored how these food innovations might evolve under the scenarios. The results provide initial insights into the role that food innovations could play in different transition pathways and also indicate the value of a diverse portfolio of food innovations to respond to changing circumstances. Furthermore, the process allowed participants to develop a shared understanding of food system dynamics and explore potential future risks and opportunities for food innovations, showing that participatory scenarios based on the MLP framework are a useful lens for exploring sustainable food system transitions.

Future ecosystem service provision under land-use change scenarios in southwestern Ethiopia

ABSTRACT Continued pressure and transformation of land-use by humans are key drivers of biodiversity and ecosystem services (ES) loss. To determine the sustainability of possible future land-use practices, it is important to anticipate likely future changes to biodiversity and ES. This can help stakeholders and decision-makers to understand and assess the viability of current development policies and design alternative future pathways. Focusing on a biodiversity hotspot in southwestern Ethiopia, we considered four future land-use scenarios (namely: ‘Gain over grain’, ‘Coffee and conservation’, ‘Mining green gold’ and ‘Food first’ scenarios) that were developed in an earlier project via participatory scenario planning. We modelled and mapped the spatial distribution of six ES (erosion control, carbon storage, coffee production, crop production, livestock feed, and woody-plant richness) for the current landscape and the four scenarios. Our results show that potential ES changes differed strongly across the scenarios. Changes were strongest for land-use scenarios involving large-scale agricultural intensification; and changes were not uniformly distributed across the landscape. Smallholder farmers specializing on cash crops (‘Gain over grain’ scenario) would likely cause little change to ES generation, but major losses in ES would result from expanding either food or coffee production (‘Mining green gold’ and ‘Food first’). Finally, the ‘Coffee and conservation’ scenario appears to be the most sustainable scenario because it would secure diverse ES for the long term. Our findings provide valuable input for decision-makers and stakeholders and could help to identify sustainable land-use options.

Participatory and Spatially Explicit Assessment to Envision the Future of Land-Use/Land-Cover Change Scenarios on Selected Ecosystem Services in Southwestern Ghana

Settlement expansion and commercial agriculture affect landscape sustainability and ecosystem service provision. Integrated landscape approaches are promoted to negotiate trade-offs between competing land uses and their reconciliation. Incorporating local perceptions of landscape dynamics as basis for such negotiations is particularly relevant for sub-Saharan Africa, where most people depend on natural ecosystems for livelihoods and well-being. This study applied participatory scenario building and spatially explicit simulation to unravel perceptions of the potential impact of rubber and settlement expansion on the provision of selected ecosystem services in southwestern Ghana under a business-as-usual scenario. We collected data in workshops and expert surveys on locally relevant ecosystem services, their indicator values, and the probable land-use transitions. The data was translated into an assessment matrix and integrated into a spatially explicit modeling platform, allowing visualization and comparison of the impact on ecosystem service provision of land-use scenarios under rubber plantation and settlement expansion. The results show the capacity of current (2020) and future land-use patterns to provide locally relevant ecosystem services, indicating a decline in capacity of ecosystem service provisioning in the future compared to the 2020 land-use patterns, a threat to the benefits humans derive from ecosystems. This highlights urgent need for policies and measures to control the drivers of land-use/land-cover change. Furthermore, the results emphasize the importance of diversifying land-use/land-cover types for sustainable landscape development. The paper contributes new insights into how spatially explicit and semi-quantitative methods can make stakeholder perceptions of landscape dynamics explicit as a basis for implementing integrated landscape approaches.

Climate futures and development pathways: A journey from terrorism to tourism in the Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa Province of Pakistan

Achieving equitable development that supports climate mitigation in an uncertain future remains a daunting task, particularly for post-conflict societies. In this paper, we present results from a local stakeholder participatory scenario workshop investigating emerging priorities for anticipatory action, with respect to future climate impacts, in the vulnerable conflict-affected Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa Province of Pakistan. Importantly, our findings reveal that stakeholders were less focused on addressing climate impacts, and more interested in local development initiatives to enhance tourism offerings and the regional national park network. The novelty of our work lies in the use of participatory scenarios to both initiate a process of healing and provide a forum for the co-production of future narratives focused on sustainable and inclusive development. However, this first involves mending the social fabric that ties individuals and communities together in an inclusive and informed way. As such, our work adds to the scholarship of environmental peacebuilding, creating a local context-specific knowledge base using a bottom-up approach to understand a shared future. The case study presented here highlights the perspectives of policymakers from the global south and brings local stakeholders together in a space where top-down management approaches often dominate.

Towards Green Development in Zambia: A Mixed-Method Participatory Scenarios Approach

Towards Green Development in Zambia: A Mixed-Method Participatory Scenarios Approach

Scenarios of sustainable fodder production in the conflict-affected Kerio Valley of Kenya

Communities that keep livestock depend on forages. Understanding the potential futures of livestock forages in regions affected by climate change and resource conflict is critical for climate security and peace. However, often there is limited data on future fodder developments and their drivers. This article presents the results of a scenario development process to identify livestock forage options against conflict scenarios in the Kerio Valley in Kenya. The Valley is of interest because of ongoing communal conflicts, whereby one of the triggers is disputes over pasture during drought emergencies. Given the absence of data, we underwent a participatory scenario development process to co-design fodder futures with representatives of warring communities, market players, the local administration and researchers from Egerton University who worked in the region to mitigate drought risks in the area. Through this process, the representatives developed six strategic fodder scenarios and examined them against four likely stability contexts. The findings from the scenario workshops identify strategies to support the most promising scenarios. Kerio Valley actors could adopt those fodder scenarios that mitigate the risk of resource conflicts, especially in preparation for reoccurring droughts emergencies. Finally, our research suggests that where conflict parties jointly search for fodder solutions, scenario planning could contribute to peace-building.

Participatory scenario planning as a useful method for transforming ocean conflicts: Insights from a small-scale fishing conflict in São Paulo coast, Brazil

There are several initiatives towards the science-policy interface and the co-production of knowledge, but there is still few methodological and empirically grounded guidance helping scientists to design and implement research that actively facilitate transformative changes in ocean conflicts. In this paper, we explore the potential of the participatory scenario planning tool in the transformation of a conflict case on small-scale fishing in Brazil. We highlight the lessons learned, potential, and challenges of the scenario planning approach for conflict transformation. Despite being an approach widely applied to coastal and marine environmental and management issues, the scenarios methodology has not been explicitly applied in conflict situations, with the parties in dispute, as we did. Our methodological approach consisted of a previous research stage, based on documental analysis, direct observation of meetings and semi-structured interviews, followed by a participatory scenario planning workshop. Our results show that the participatory scenario planning was able to find the common desires as well as the uncertainties that generated doubts, mistrust, and in many moments disagreements among different groups of stakeholders that were in conflict. Previous research and the employment of multiple methods to build the history of the conflict contributed to legitimate researchers' positionality, to know the parties involved and the power dynamics. We raised some questions to advance the understanding of how the participatory scenarios planning contribute to transforming ocean conflicts in a more critical and politicized view.

Existing evidence on the use of participatory scenarios in ecological restoration: a systematic map

Background and contextThe scale of land degradation worldwide has led to nearly one billion hectares committed to restoration globally. However, achieving such restoration targets will necessitate complex trade-offs against limited time, competing knowledge, costs, resources and varying stakeholder and societal preferences. Participatory scenarios allow a way to identify collaborative solutions for restoration planning and implementation best suited for the local cultures and societies they are tied to. They can be used to navigate uncertainties surrounding future trajectories of restored areas by evaluating trade-offs in outcomes. This research aims to systematically map the evidence on the use of participatory scenarios in restoration planning. We use the following research question: What evidence exists on the use of participatory scenarios in ecological restoration? This is answered by examining the characteristics of the evidence base, types of study design, types of outcomes, trade-offs in outcomes, and the role of participants.MethodsA comprehensive and reproducible search strategy was followed using bibliographic databases, web-based searches, and targeted searching. Search results underwent a two-step screening process according to eligibility criteria. Metadata on key areas of interest were extracted from included texts and were narratively synthesised alongside data visualisations to answer the research questions.Review findings18,612 records were initially identified, and 106 articles were included in the final map. Most studies were conducted in Europe and North America, focusing on restoring agricultural land or forests. Most texts used mixed methods and explored multiple outcome types, but environmental outcomes were the most assessed. Within environmental outcomes, indicators for ecological function were assessed more frequently than structural or compositional indicators. The most common reason for choosing outcomes and indicators was stakeholder interest. Trade-offs in social, ecological, and economic outcomes were mainly examined across space using mapping techniques, while far fewer studies looked at trade-offs across stakeholders and time. Participants were mostly included in the scenario creation step and were usually chosen purposefully by the research team.ConclusionsIt is difficult to understand how useful scenarios are for restoration planning because few texts reported how scenarios fed into the process. Despite this, the range of outcomes used and different method types adopted suggests participatory scenarios allow for integrating different knowledge and approaches, alongside facilitating the use of qualitative or semi-quantitative data when this is more appropriate or quantitative data is not widely available. To better use participatory scenarios as a tool for ecological restoration planning, decision-makers can push for greater levels and definitions of participation from the offset of restoration projects with specified, regular, and structured communication and participation channels. We also recommend more systematic methods of participant selection, such as stakeholder analysis. Further research is needed to understand the effectiveness of participatory scenarios in restoration planning and whether the participation of stakeholders was successful in meeting objectives. To improve the evidence base, future studies should clearly evaluate their effectiveness in the restoration planning process and their success in meeting their participatory objectives.

What future for organic farming? Foresight for a smallholder Mediterranean agricultural system

This study aims to foresee the future of organic farming in the smallholder agricultural systems of the Valencian Region (Spain), as well as to identify how different drivers of change may affect such a future. To do so, two qualitative methodologies were combined: The Delphi method and the participatory scenario development. The results estimate an upward trend for organic farming area and sales, which would contribute to a greener and more sustainable economy in the region, a slight drop in organic versus conventional food prices, the entrance of large operators and a “dualisation” of the models of production and consumption of organic food. The key role that the public sector plays for the future of organic farming is underlined by the stakeholders, who suggest that the civil society may counterbalance the lack of public support by way of collective action and an increasing awareness about health and sustainability. This study concludes by highlighting the main findings obtained, both regarding the expected evolution of organic agriculture in the region and the key factors that would influence such evolution, emphasising the applicability of the results to other similar smallholder Mediterranean farming systems.

Producing futures for the Arctic: what agency for Indigenous communities in foresight arenas?

The integration of Indigenous and Local Knowledge (ILK) and the involvement of Indigenous peoples and Local communities (IPLCs) in the making of the futures are strongly encouraged by the implementation of processes such as participatory scenarios. This article critically examines efforts within this area in Arctic regions by analysing how ILK integration occurs and what agency IPLCs have in this process. We identify three different foresight arenas where futures are manufactured, namely: the global reviewing, foresight forums, and local participatory foresight arenas. IPLCs have been integrated; however their agency remains limited. Instead of allowing IPLCs to offer innovative foresight methods, define foresight files specific to Indigenous priorities and concerns, and develop alternative futures, this integration in fact constrains ILK by enforcing a Western paradigm. We also identify two distinct strategies for Indigenous people to promote their own futures and strengthen their influence over the process of making decisions about the Arctic. The first is a battle of the futures where IPLCs compete with other stakeholders within the arenas’ existing frameworks to ensure that their interests are adequately addressed. The second involves decolonizing futures by emancipating their production from the frameworks of the arenas and creating new space for ILK paradigms.

Ideario sobre participación política de estudiantes de grado 11 del Colegio Distrital Paulo Freire.

The main purpose of this research article is to investigate the political ideology of the eleventh grade youth of the Paulo Freire district school, in the city of Bogotá. The present study used the qualitative methodology, since it allows collecting the perceptions and interpretations of the students. The instrument applied to carry out the data collection was the survey, which allowed collecting the necessary information that makes it possible to understand the ideas and conceptions that students have about political participation. The result of the investigation favored the understanding of how in various classes a democratic thought is created and promoted that allows students to think and give their opinion in a critical and authentic way regarding political and social issues, on the other hand, it was possible to know the tastes and alternative political scenarios of the students; In the same way, a distaste was evidenced in the students for exercising and belonging to the participatory scenarios arranged by the institution, this is due to the underestimation of adults and in part to the traditional politics of the country.

A framework for participatory scenario planning to guide transitions towards sustainability in mountain social-ecological systems: A case study from the Colombian Andes

Pronounced environmental gradients of tropical mountains result in interconnected social-ecological systems of great cultural and biological diversity and high provision of essential ecosystem services. This intrinsic diversity of mountain social-ecological systems (MtSES) entails great complexity which, coupled with remoteness, vulnerability, and lack of fine-scale data, hampers the adequate planning of transitions towards sustainability and affects the livelihoods of their inhabitants. Based on our experience in a tropical MtSES, here we propose a framework for participatory scenario planning (PSP) that supports local stakeholders to create plausible development pathways while harmonizing top-down planning instruments and securing the provision of ecosystem services (ES). Our framework comprises: (1) screening the study area to understand historical land cover changes and development pathways based on current planning instruments and local knowledge, (2) gathering future visions from MtSES inhabitants based on their wishes, perceived drivers of change, and key ecosystems services, (3) creating a land-cover map using satellite imagery, (4) establishing a baseline with on-field data collection, (5) writing narratives that harmonize those visions with planning instruments and translating them into spatially explicit future scenarios, (6) estimating ecosystems services in each scenario, and (7) refining future scenario narratives by facilitating a dialog where farmers, researchers, and stakeholders discuss contrasting scenario results and their perceived potential impacts. Our PSP framework raises awareness among local stakeholders about land cover changes and their impacts, while generating fine-scale data that is usually lacking for MtSES. Both aspects are important for updating planning instruments and policies in a participatory way taking into account the complexity of each particular MtSES as well as people's perceptions about the future. Our study adds to the existing literature on PSP as it provides a case study in a Andean tropical MtSES. Since each MtSES is unique, we hope this practical example can inspire planning policy schemes to include bottom-up approaches.

The Progress and Prospects in the Scenario Simulation Research on the Sustainability of Regional Ecosystem Services Based on a “Safe Operating Space”

Integrating scenarios and models to assess the sustainability of future regional ecosystem services is at the forefront of ecosystem service science. However, there are a lack of comprehensive reviews on this topic. Therefore, this study provides a systematic review of the research progress considering two aspects: ecosystem service scenario simulation and sustainability assessments based on the concept of a “safe operating space.” We found that (1) a number of studies have already started to explore methods for evaluating the sustainability of future ecosystem services; (2) in terms of scenario construction methods, most existing studies have adopted the global classical scenario downscaling approach, while less consideration has been given to the important socio-economic-environmental characteristics of a region itself, which affect the credibility and policy relevance of scenarios; and (3) in terms of sustainability simulation evaluation, most existing studies are qualitative comparisons of the sustainability of ecosystem services within different scenarios, while quantitative methods are lacking. We proposed an approach that combined participatory scenario construction and a regional safe operating space to address the above identified challenges. Successfully implementing this research approach would provide decision makers with more accurate and practical early warning information regarding the sustainability of future ecosystem services.