Scenarios of sustainable fodder production in the conflict-affected Kerio Valley of Kenya

Abstract

Communities that keep livestock depend on forages. Understanding the potential futures of livestock forages in regions affected by climate change and resource conflict is critical for climate security and peace. However, often there is limited data on future fodder developments and their drivers. This article presents the results of a scenario development process to identify livestock forage options against conflict scenarios in the Kerio Valley in Kenya. The Valley is of interest because of ongoing communal conflicts, whereby one of the triggers is disputes over pasture during drought emergencies. Given the absence of data, we underwent a participatory scenario development process to co-design fodder futures with representatives of warring communities, market players, the local administration and researchers from Egerton University who worked in the region to mitigate drought risks in the area. Through this process, the representatives developed six strategic fodder scenarios and examined them against four likely stability contexts. The findings from the scenario workshops identify strategies to support the most promising scenarios. Kerio Valley actors could adopt those fodder scenarios that mitigate the risk of resource conflicts, especially in preparation for reoccurring droughts emergencies. Finally, our research suggests that where conflict parties jointly search for fodder solutions, scenario planning could contribute to peace-building.