Producing futures for the Arctic: what agency for Indigenous communities in foresight arenas?

Abstract

The integration of Indigenous and Local Knowledge (ILK) and the involvement of Indigenous peoples and Local communities (IPLCs) in the making of the futures are strongly encouraged by the implementation of processes such as participatory scenarios. This article critically examines efforts within this area in Arctic regions by analysing how ILK integration occurs and what agency IPLCs have in this process. We identify three different foresight arenas where futures are manufactured, namely: the global reviewing, foresight forums, and local participatory foresight arenas. IPLCs have been integrated; however their agency remains limited. Instead of allowing IPLCs to offer innovative foresight methods, define foresight files specific to Indigenous priorities and concerns, and develop alternative futures, this integration in fact constrains ILK by enforcing a Western paradigm. We also identify two distinct strategies for Indigenous people to promote their own futures and strengthen their influence over the process of making decisions about the Arctic. The first is a battle of the futures where IPLCs compete with other stakeholders within the arenas’ existing frameworks to ensure that their interests are adequately addressed. The second involves decolonizing futures by emancipating their production from the frameworks of the arenas and creating new space for ILK paradigms.