Participatory Scenario Research Articles

Investigating future ecosystem services through participatory scenario building and spatial ecological–economic modelling

Scenario analysis with integrated quantitative modelling has become a common approach to investigate possible future socio-ecological systems in sustainability research. Facing several barriers on the use of scenarios, however, a participatory scenario approach has gained wider attention in place-based environmental research communities. In this paper, we investigate future ecosystem services (i.e., food production, carbon sequestration, nutrient retention, and habitat provision) in the explorative manner in the Sado island, Japan, using a participatory scenario approach and spatial ecological–economic modelling techniques. The contributions of this paper to the existing literatures are twofold: the one is collaborative use of morphological analysis and participants’ votes for more fair and transparent scenario building, and the other is a suite of spatial modelling techniques, inter alia, land-use projections using a spatial multinomial logit model, for more robust and accurate simulations. Taking such innovative approaches and constructing the ecosystem service index reflecting local perceptions, we built distinctive six scenarios and projected future ecosystem services. As consequences, we could (1) illuminate the trade-offs between land-based ecosystem services, (2) highlight the importance of adequate mosaic structures in providing bundle of ecosystem services, and (3) visualize the spatially heterogenous impacts of alternative scenarios that imply one scenario does not fit all areas. We also discussed the interpretation of a sink service from sustainability perspectives and lessons learned from the parallel approach of participatory scenario building and quantitative modelling exercises.

Applying the global RCP–SSP–SPA scenario framework at sub-national scale: A multi-scale and participatory scenario approach

To better anticipate potential impacts of climate change, diverse information about the future is required, including climate, society and economy, and adaptation and mitigation. To address this need, a global RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways), SSP (Shared Socio-economic Pathways), and SPA (Shared climate Policy Assumptions) (RCP–SSP–SPA) scenario framework has been developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC-AR5). Application of this full global framework at sub-national scales introduces two key challenges: added complexity in capturing the multiple dimensions of change, and issues of scale. Perhaps for this reason, there are few such applications of this new framework. Here, we present an integrated multi-scale hybrid scenario approach that combines both expert-based and participatory methods. The framework has been developed and applied within the DECCMA11DECCMA (DEltas, vulnerability and Climate Change: Migration and Adaptation) project is part of the Collaborative Adaptation Research Initiative in Africa and Asia (CARIAA), with financial support from the UK Government's Department for International Development (DFID) and the International Development Research Centre (IDRC), Canada. For more information, visit the project website: http://www.geodata.soton.ac.uk/deccma/. project with the purpose of exploring migration and adaptation in three deltas across West Africa and South Asia: (i) the Volta delta (Ghana), (ii) the Mahanadi delta (India), and (iii) the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) delta (Bangladesh/India). Using a climate scenario that encompasses a wide range of impacts (RCP8.5) combined with three SSP-based socio-economic scenarios (SSP2, SSP3, SSP5), we generate highly divergent and challenging scenario contexts across multiple scales against which robustness of the human and natural systems within the deltas are tested. In addition, we consider four distinct adaptation policy trajectories: Minimum intervention, Economic capacity expansion, System efficiency enhancement, and System restructuring, which describe alternative future bundles of adaptation actions/measures under different socio-economic trajectories. The paper highlights the importance of multi-scale (combined top-down and bottom-up) and participatory (joint expert-stakeholder) scenario methods for addressing uncertainty in adaptation decision-making. The framework facilitates improved integrated assessments of the potential impacts and plausible adaptation policy choices (including migration) under uncertain future changing conditions. The concept, methods, and processes presented are transferable to other sub-national socio-ecological settings with multi-scale challenges.

Participatory scenario development process in addressing potential impacts of anthropogenic activities on the ecosystem services of Mt. Marsabit forest, Kenya

The Marsabit Forest Reserve (MFR), a green island in an arid environmental setting, generates multiple ecosystem goods and services (ES) to the local community critical for their livelihoods. The forest has been experiencing substantial land conversion for town expansion, agriculture production and settlements threatening long-term ES provision. Sustaining the forest ES under increasing anthropogenic pressures is one of the great challenges of the Marsabit forest community. We used focus group discussions in the thirteen locations around the forest and individual key informant's interviews in the identification of drivers of change and their potential impacts on ES in MFR. We used the scenario development process (SDP) in coming up with four divergent but plausible exploratory scenarios. The study established that the main ES provided by the forest was, water, fuelwood, forage (dry season grazing resource), medicinal plants and timber for construction. Stakeholders identified population pressure, unsustainable utilisation of forest resources, institutional barriers to effective resource management, land use and climate change as the main drivers impacting ES provision in the forest. Land use change and climate change were considered the most significant drivers yet the most uncertain in the future impacting ES provision in the MFR. The SDP identified four alternative future scenarios for the MFR by the year 2044 with the Marsabit we want scenario identified as the most desirable future for the sustainable supply of ES with adequate adaptation to observed changes. Stakeholders came up with a joint action plan implementation matrix for the identified scenario while mitigating the negative aspects of the alternative scenarios. The results support the need for participatory land use planning that takes into to account the growing threat of climate change to natural forest systems.

Combining participatory scenario planning and systems modeling to identify drivers of future sustainability on the Mongolian Plateau

Combining participatory scenario planning and systems modeling to identify drivers of future sustainability on the Mongolian Plateau

Can scenario planning catalyse transformational change? Evaluating a climate change policy case study in Mali

The potential of participatory scenario processes to catalyse individual and collective transformation and policy change is emphasised in several theoretical reflections. Participatory scenario processes are believed to enhance participants’ systems understanding, learning, networking and subsequent changes in practices. However, limited empirical evidence is available to prove these assumptions. This study aimed to contribute to this knowledge gap. It evaluates whether these outcomes had resulted from the scenario planning exercise and the extent to which they can contribute to transformational processes. The research focused on a district level case study in rural Mali which examined food security and necessary policy changes in the context of climate change. The analyses of interviews with 26 participants carried out 12 months after the workshop suggested positive changes in learning and networking, but only limited influence on systems understanding. There was limited change in practice, but the reported changes occurred at the individual level, and no policy outcomes were evident. However, by building the adaptive capacity of participants, the scenario process had laid the foundation for ongoing collective action, and potential institutional and policy transformation. We conclude that to enhance the resilience of agricultural and food systems under climate change, participatory scenario processes require a broader range of cross-scale actors’ engagement to support transformational changes. Such process will both catalyse deeper learning and more effective link with national level policy-making process. In addition, individual scenario planning exercises are unlikely to generate sufficient learning and reflection, and instead they should form one component of more extensive and deliberate stakeholder engagement, learning and evaluation processes.

Implementing green infrastructure policy in agricultural landscapes—scenarios for Saxony-Anhalt, Germany

Green infrastructure (GI) has been identified as helping to protect Europe’s natural capital by fostering environmental protection outside nature reserves and enabling better overall adaptation to changing conditions. The aim of Europe’s green infrastructure strategy is to integrate GI implementation into existing policies. In intensively farmed agricultural areas, this mainly means the greening measures of the Common Agricultural Policy, which are mandatory for farmers wishing to receive full direct payments. We explore how GI implementation might develop under different future scenarios. We use a participatory scenario development approach to explore the benefits and limitations perceived by local actors in the agricultural regions of Saxony-Anhalt, Germany. Limiting factors include ecosystem disservices, economic constraints relating to income, labour costs, investments and land tenure, and social considerations including the farmers’ self-image as primarily food producers and local people’s opinions regarding good farming practices. The limiting factors also include a lack of knowledge about the ecological usefulness of measures, and failings in the design of the measures regarding practicability, flexibility and reliability. Benefits are seen in various ecosystem services, job creation and in fulfilling society’s demands for environmental protection. We conclude by stating that GI implementation in agricultural landscapes requires reliable and flexible measures that fit farming practices and are well communicated, and that landscape level coordination and cooperation could enhance their effectiveness.

Mapping the Stakeholders: Using Social Network Analysis to Increase the Legitimacy and Transparency of Participatory Scenario Planning

ABSTRACTParticipatory scenario planning (PSP) processes rely on accurate stakeholder identification to develop a key set of critical uncertainties. While many stakeholder analysis methods are able to identify stakeholders and describe their relationships, we found these efforts to have limited use in the fast-moving and in-depth approach of PSP research. We find that social network analysis (SNA) is an efficient, objective, and transparent approach to stakeholder identification in highly contested natural resource management issues. We present a case study of our research on Alaska’s Kenai Peninsula to describe how SNA’s ability to contextualize the relations between actors can benefit participatory research.

Future science-policy agendas and partnerships for building a sustainable society in harmony with nature

The Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) has identified the development of scenarios as a key component of its Global Assessment. As part of the project entitled “Future scenarios and governance of social-ecological systems in the Asia–Pacific (AP) region through enhancing synergy between indigenous and local knowledge and scientific knowledge,” we conducted an online questionnaire survey to identify key science-policy agendas, and collaborations among science, policy, and society in the AP region. The results demonstrated the importance of traditional knowledge in ecosystem management as well as collaboration between policy makers and researchers. The findings will be useful inputs when IPBES and governments develop bottom-up and participatory scenarios and pathways that can lead to sustainable futures.

New EU-scale environmental scenarios until 2050 – Scenario process and initial scenario applications

Understanding uncertainties and risks can be considered to be the main motivation behind environmental scenario studies to assess potential economic, environmental, social or technical developments and their expected consequences for society and environment. The scenario study presented in this paper was designed to contribute to the question of how natural capital and ecosystem services may evolve in Europe under different socio-environmental conditions. The study was conducted as part of OpenNESS, an on-going EU FP7 research project. We present the iterative participatory scenario process, the storylines and drivers, examples for regional applications, as well as initial feedback from stakeholders.In a participatory iterative approach four scenarios were developed for the period to 2050, involving regional and EU-level users and stakeholders. Subsequently, scenarios were successfully contextualised and applied in regional place-based studies under widely differing socio-environmental conditions. Regional teams used different approaches to adapt storylines and drivers to the regional contexts. In an internal evaluation process among regional stakeholders some participants expressed concerns about the scenario method. Suggestions are made how to overcome these limitations. However, most participants approved the scenario method, especially in terms of provoking discussions, and confirmed the usefulness and applicability of the approach.

Co-exploring the Water-Energy-Food Nexus: Facilitating Dialogue through Participatory Scenario Building

The ‘water-energy-food (WEF) nexus’ has become an increasingly popular way to frame the challenges associated with reconciling improvements in human wellbeing and aspirations for better lives with sustainable management of natural resources and ecosystems. Yet the nexus is complex, requiring effective engagement between expert and non-expert stakeholders in order to understand biophysical inter-linkages between resources and resource flows and social interactions between different actors in the socio-ecological system and landscape. This can be a substantial challenge due to varying levels of knowledge and understanding amongst actors with divergent, and often entrenched, interests. This paper presents insights on how participatory scenario-building processes can create space for dialogue amongst stakeholders with differing knowledge, experience, priorities and political perspectives. Drawing on completed and on-going research applying a ‘nexus toolkit’ in Ethiopia and Rwanda respectively, we contribute to a generalized conceptual framework for addressing, communicating, and assessing the water-energy-food nexus, with a particular focus on how to utilize the nexus concept in practice. We find that participatory scenario-building processes that facilitate engagement beyond technical aspects to include social, economic and political concerns provide a valuable space for discussing and negotiating development pathways that are sustainable both biophysically and socio-economically. In addition, the involvement of stakeholders throughout the project process greatly enhances the quality and legitimacy of results. Furthermore, we suggest that by building capacity amongst stakeholders to maintain a quantitative ‘nexus toolkit’, it has a better chance of informing decision-making and for supporting the development of more technically refined analyses of alternative decisions and management strategies.

Ecosystem Services and Cultural Values as Building Blocks for ‘The Good life’. A Case Study in the Community of Røst, Lofoten Islands, Norway

We examined the contribution of natural capital and social capital through the notion of cultural ecosystem services to shaping human well-being in the fishing community of Røst in the Lofoten Islands in Northern Norway. Through ethnographic observations, in-depth interviews, and a participatory scenario workshop we develop four narratives centering on the links of nature and ecosystem services. Benefits derived from ecosystem services are fundamental building blocks in the local vision of ‘the good life’ and emerge from a combination of satisfied preferences and struggle, hardships, and capabilities inflicted by a demanding environment and challenging work conditions. Beyond a certain level of meeting basic needs and provisioning of essential public services, simplicity in life and local control over resources and surroundings was preferred over a multitude of other opportunities and services. Well-being was strongly linked to maintenance of identity through traditional practices for harvesting of natural resources, nurturing of skills, social cohesion, and acting meaningfully in one's local environment. In a relational perspective, cultural ecosystem services are constituted and given meaning through interaction with nature. The main policy implication is that contributions of natural and social capital to well-being proved to be hard to meaningfully separate.

Participatory scenario planning for sustainable irrigated agriculture when actors seldom communicate: an experiment in Morocco

ABSTRACTIn Morocco, agricultural activities based on groundwater use increasingly face risks of aquifer overdraft and market saturation. However, farmers and public organizations responsible for agriculture and water resources rarely communicate to identify how these risks could be overcome. A participatory scenario-planning process was organized in a small region to identify a pathway towards agricultural activities that are sustainable in terms of groundwater resource use and profitability. Actors jointly determined this pathway thanks to the organization of preparatory workshops held separately with each actor before they met together, and the progressive integration of agriculture development and groundwater use in scenario design.

Envisioning protected areas through participatory scenario planning: navigating coverage and effectiveness challenges ahead

Envisioning protected areas through participatory scenario planning: navigating coverage and effectiveness challenges ahead

A spatial explicit scenario method to support participative regional land-use decisions regarding economic and ecological options of short rotation coppice (SRC) for renewable energy production on arable land: case study application for the G\xf6ttingen district, Germany

BackgroundRenewable energy (RE) production is a land-use driver with increasing impact on landscape configuration and a matter of controversial debate. Woody biomass cropping provides an opportunity to interlink RE supply with spatial planning goals, RE concepts and rural development programmes since it tackles several issues, ranging from climate or soil protection to over food production and income diversification as well as new and additional regional value cluster. Participatory scenario generation supported by interactive visualization tools facilitates the development of joint goals regarding local land-use decisions.MethodsBased on a stakeholder dialogue in the rural district of Göttingen, two scenarios were quantified and analysed. Reflecting a farmer-oriented economic perspective in (a) “Income first” and an integration of economic and ecological aspects in (b) “Ecological benefits”, the two scenarios address opportunities and constraints of poplar short rotation coppice (SRC) in comparison to three common crop rotations in the case study area. Suitable SRC parcels were determined by linking yield modelling results of annual reference crops and poplar SRC with ecological indicators of water-induced soil erosion and ecotone density as well as with annuity calculation and a risk assessment (stochastic dominance) based on the Monte Carlo simulation of price and yield fluctuation.ResultsSRC was economically superior (stochastically first-order dominant) to all three reference crop rotations (oilseed rape-wheat-barley; maize-wheat-maize-wheat; oilseed rape-wheat-wheat) on 1800 ha or 4.9% of the arable land. With a positive annuity difference ranging between 63 and 236€ ha−1 a−1 SRC provides an opportunity to diversify farmers’ income. The primary energy supply from the suitable land parcels accounted for 130 GWh a−1 or 8% of the RE supply in 2030 strived for by local climate protection goals. Around 50% of the 1800 ha are suitable as focal areas for a joint consideration of farmers’ income, erosion protection and structural enrichment. The related average economic trade-off on annuity differences for the gain of substantially increased ecological benefits is about 17€ ha−1 a−1 (13%).ConclusionsLinking ecological criteria assessment with dynamic investment calculation and risk evaluation in a joint methodology revealed that SRC is an economic viable alternative for renewable energy production and can provide ecological synergies in terms of erosion protection and structural enrichment. The presented methodology is transferrable and allows to visualize stakeholder-based scenarios with an agreed identification of opportunities and constraints that come with SRC on arable land. This helps to better integrate local land-use decisions with formal and informal spatial planning goals.

Blending science and community voices for multi-scale disaster risk reduction and climate resilience: a participatory scenario planning approach

Climate change is a major development challenge to Ethiopia. Unless adaptation measures are widely implemented, climate change can set back development efforts and achievements by years. Recognizing this, the Government of Ethiopia (GoE) and civil society organizations have since recently been making considerable efforts to tackle the climate change problem. This paper documents the experience of CARE International in Ethiopia in facilitating bottom-up approaches to promote community-led disaster risk management and climate change adaptation planning through a participator scenario planning (PSP) methodology. PSP is a coordinated approach which leverages a variety of stakeholders' skills and mandates to explore potential climate change risks and their impacts, and then develop locally relevant and shared adaptation action plans that support livelihoods, social capital and ecosystem resilience. The approach has facilitated timely access to and communication of seasonal climate advisories which in turn is empowering communities to take advantage of opportunities that climate presents, which is a key part of adapting to climate change. The institutionalization of the approach by district and regional disaster prevention and food security coordination offices in the southern pastoral regions of Ethiopia encouraged integration of PSP into community livelihood adaptation and local government development planning, hence continuity of the process. Sustainability is expected to be fully achieved when local government planning processes recognize the importance of and provides resources for the participation of meteorological services and community forecasting experts to help refine plans on a seasonal basis, and for systems for dissemination of advisories. Key Words: Climate change, Disaster risk management, Pastoralism, Participatory scenario planning

Increasing the effectiveness of participatory scenario development through codesign

McBride, M. F., K. F. Lambert, E. S. Huff, K. A. Theoharides, P. Field, and J. R. Thompson. 2017. Increasing the effectiveness of participatory scenario development through codesign. Ecology and Society 22(3):16. https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-09386-220316

Participatory Scenario-Building for Brazilian Climate Policy: The IES-Brasil Project Experience

This article reflects on experiences with IES-Brasil project to generate credible, legitimate and useful knowledge for domestic and international climate policy. It offers insight into how a participatory scenario building project was given shape in Brazil and how it sought to generate credible, legitimate and useful results. The article concludes by drawing some lessons that IES-Brasil can offer for climate policy and knowledge creation ‘post-Paris’.

Scenario-based approach in dealing with climate change impacts in Central Tanzania

Climate variability and change continue to be a threat to Africa’s agro-ecosystems. This is anticipated to have a multitude of immediate and long-term impacts on sub-Saharan Africa’s natural resources of the present study attempts to establish the potential benefit of integrating local stakeholders’ knowledge into climate scenarios. Specifically, the study sought to tap into the expertise and perspectives of locally important stakeholders in the potentially sensitive Wami/Ruvu River catchment of Tanzania. Participatory scenario planning was used to explore sectors sensitive to climate variability and change. This included 84 selected smallholder farmers and their leaders spread across six villages within the catchment. Quantitative household surveys were conducted across 199 households and Supplementary information sourced from regional statistics. The survey indicates that farmers project that land and agricultural productivity and water resources will be affected by climate change. From the participatory approach adopted for the study, thematic scenario categories featuring land and water resource-use and management and farm productivity were developed. The research found scenario analysis as a useful tool in development planning, as it incorporates interacting risks and uncertainties. If adopted by local farmers, leaders, regional institutional frameworks and policy makers, the tool has the potential to improve responsiveness to changes and risks through its collaborative management approach. This study demonstrates the need for sustainable water use and management systems and land use and farming practices that will increase crop productivity and resilience to climate variability and change.

Analysing scenario approaches for forest management — One decade of experiences in Europe

In forest management, scenarios are often used to envision what the future might look like to account for uncertainties associated with, for example, climate change, changing socio-economic conditions, and technological developments. There are, however, many different methodological approaches to scenario building. In order to be able to make better use of the diversity of approaches at hand, a systematic overview of the scenario methodologies, which is currently missing in the forest sector, is needed. This paper analysed and reviewed 129 forest-management-related scenario studies that have been carried out in Europe during the past decade. The studies were classified by means of cluster analysis in four groups: (1) management scenarios, (2) environmental scenarios, (3) optimization scenarios, and (4) participatory scenarios. Despite differences between the four groups, almost all scenario studies can be characterized as rather quantitative, non-participatory, and single factor in nature. The analysis also found a temporal trend reflecting a broadening of the scenario methodology for forest management over time towards scenarios that incorporate longer time horizons, reflecting issues on a larger scale, including land-use considerations. Considering the complexity and urgency of the issues in forest management that need to be addressed and the opportunities offered by the scenario methodologies not yet fully used, we expect to see a further broadening of the scenario methodology with mixed-method, participatory, and complex scenarios.

Exploring participatory scenario and storyline building for sustainable urban futures – the case of China in 2050

Purpose Drawing on a EU-funded research project on urbanisation in China and Europe (URBACHINA), the purpose of this inquiry is to explore the potential of foresight – through visionary scenarios and related participatory processes – in promoting learning and sustainable futures in China’s centrally planned context. Our research explores the use of backcasting, of Donella Meadows’ “levers” and Paul Raskin’s “proximate-ultimate drivers” and of archetypal worldviews to further our understanding of how we think about the future, and of the tension between transition scenarios and transformative, paradigmatic or deep change. Design/methodology/approach A review of recent foresight studies and literature provides an overview of the latest approaches: in particular the methods, scope, process, level of participation, themes discussed and wild cards considered. Building on this, the inquiry designs and implements a participatory, normative and qualitative scenario building to explore sustainable urban futures for China, adapting the elements of Joseph Voros’ basic foresight process to include a total of nine steps, with five workshops, two international surveys, an adapted backcasting step and internal consistency mechanisms. Findings The combination of a participatory iterative process with normative approaches to envisioning, helped question assumptions and deeply ingrained development models, as well as the narrow space for “alternatives” resulting from China’s centralised, top-down planning and decision-making. The experience confirms the power of scenario/storyline building in helping reflect and question strategic policy choices and enrich urban policy debates. The process successfully proposed a number of steps that ensured triangulation of the envisioning outcomes and additional learning also through backcasting. Finally, the research shows a clear link between the development of scenarios space, the debate on transition and transformative futures and archetypal worldviews, which were shown to be stable even after decades. Originality/value The URBACHINA approach to the specific challenge of sustainable urbanisation in China applies a strong normative component combined to more locally accepted exploratory methods and introduces a participatory approach to all key stages of scenario building. This represents an innovative contribution to the country’s foresight practice and the results help Chinese decision makers to reflect on the wider sustainability implications of their urban strategy. The inquiry deepens our understanding of the use of proximate and ultimate drivers of change and of the tension between transition and transformation pathways to our future.