Output Growth Volatility Research Articles

Output Growth Volatility, Remittances, and Financial Development in the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa Region: A System Generalized Method of Moments Approach

Output Growth Volatility, Remittances, and Financial Development in the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa Region: A System Generalized Method of Moments Approach

Income, democracy and output growth volatility revisited

ABSTRACT Economic diversification increases the level of democracy and leads to greater output stability. This is because diversification is associated with an increased share of the population organized into interest groups that compete to pressure governments to pursue policies favouring their particular group. The increase in the share of the population organized in this way is indicative of an increase in the level of democracy. As diversification and the level of democracy (number of interest groups) increases, the government must pursue policies aimed at satisfying the largest number of groups, which limits its scope to implement policies that destabilize output growth. Empirical support for these hypotheses is provided from applying dynamic and heterogeneous panel data estimation techniques to a panel of 117 countries over 1995–2015. The results show a positive and significant relationship between economic diversification and democracy, on the one hand, and between diversification and output stability, on the other hand. Moreover, the positive impact of economic development on democracy and output volatility is conditional on development being accompanied by economic diversification.

Unveiling the influence of economic complexity and economic shocks on output growth volatility: evidence from a global sample

Unveiling the influence of economic complexity and economic shocks on output growth volatility: evidence from a global sample

Governance, regulatory quality and financial institutions: emerging economies perspective

PurposeThe study evaluates the effects of governance and other regulatory structures on the development of financial institutions in the subregion of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA).Design/methodology/approachData for the analyses were compiled from relevant sources from 1996 to 2019 from a sample of 36 countries in the subregion. Empirical analyses were carried out using the Prais-Winsten panel corrected standard errors panel estimation technique augmented by pooled ordinary least squares with Driscoll and Kraay (1998) standard errors model.FindingsFindings from the study suggest that governance and institutional quality index, as well as individual governance and regulatory variables, have positive effect on the development of financial institutions among economies in SSA. Further empirical estimates show that output growth volatility has negative moderating impact on the relationship between effective governance, control of corruption, rule of law, regulatory quality, voice and accountability, and development of financial institutions. Additionally, the results show that during periods of heightened macroeconomic risk, financial institutions could benefit from improved governance and effective regulatory structures.Originality/valueCompared to related studies that have reviewed the discourse on financial institutions, this study rather focuses on how governance structures and institutions influence development of financial institutions instead of the impact of financial institution on the broader economy. The authors further augment this interaction by examining how the relationship in question may be moderated by macroeconomic shocks.

Macroeconomic Risk, Uncertainty and Financial Market Development: Emerging Markets Perspective

The study examines the effect of macroeconomic instability on financial market development among economies in the sub-region of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) using a sample of 31 countries from 1996 to 2019. The study focuses on how composite macroeconomic risk index and uncertainty associated with key macroeconomic variables influence the pace of development of financial markets in the sub-region. Empirical estimates and analyses in this regard were performed using the two-step generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation technique. Results from the empirical estimates suggest that macroeconomic risk, inflation volatility and output growth volatility impede the development of financial markets among economies in the sub-region, holding all else constant. Further results show that improved governance and institutional quality may not be enough to assuage the negative impact of heightened macroeconomic risk and uncertainty on financial market development. Political instability, in contrast, is found to worsen the negative influence of macroeconomic risk and uncertainty on financial market development among economies in the SSA sub-region.

Bank competition, financial development and macroeconomic stability: Empirical evidence from emerging economies

In this study, we investigate the potential contribution of bank competition to macroeconomic stability, and the interactive role of financial development. We classify macroeconomic stability into economic and financial stability. Economic stability is represented by the volatility of actual and unexpected output growth, whereas financial stability is assessed by the aggregate Z-score and volatility of the private credit-to-gross domestic product ratio. We employ two structural and two non-structural measures of bank competition in our analysis. Applying a two-step dynamic panel system (GMM) to macroeconomic data from 48 developing nations from 1999 to 2018, we find a bell-shaped relationship between bank competition and macroeconomic stability. The findings imply that a higher level of bank competition promotes macroeconomic stability by reducing output growth volatility, fluctuations in private credit, and the probability of bank default. There is an optimal level of bank competition beyond which it may foster economic and financial instability. Moreover, financial development enhances bank competition’s positive impact on macroeconomic stability.

Government size, inflation targeting and business cycle volatility

In this paper I analyze how government size used as a proxy for fiscal stabilization policy and inflation targeting influence the amplitude of the business cycle and private consumption volatility in a sample of developing countries, for the period between 1990 and 2018. Taking into account the potential endogeneity of these variables, and controlling for the exogenous variation in trade openness, the analysis provides strong evidence that government size significantly reduces business cycle volatility while it exerts no significant impact on private consumption volatility. On the other hand, adopting inflation targeting significantly increases the amplitude of the volatility of real output growth, while significantly decreasing private consumption volatility. The implemented form of the inflation targeting regime does not introduce any significant changes in the obtained results. The findings seem to provide evidence that there is a potential for an improved coordination between fiscal and monetary policy actions in developing countries that have adopted inflation targeting.

The Effect of Sectoral Output Volatility on Economic Growth in Ethiopia

This study examined the effect of sectoral output volatility on economic growth and the determinants of economic growth in the Ethiopian economy. The study used annual time series data spanning from 1981 to 2018 and included capital stock, working-age population, trade balance, and sectoral output volatility as an explanatory variable. Using the Exponential General Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (EGARCH) and Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration test, the study found a long-run relationship between economic growth and economic growth explanatory variables. From the ARDL model, capital stock and trade balance (which has been negative throughout the study period) was found to have a positive and negative significant effect on the economic growth of Ethiopia, respectively. In the long-run, volatility of industrial and service sector output growth had a negative and statistically significant effect on the economic growth of Ethiopia. In recent years the role of agriculture in the Ethiopian economy, particularly in terms of contribution to the national GDP, has been declining—indicating the growing importance of service and industrial sectors. Therefore, smoothening and maintaining the positive sectoral output growth is advisable for the betterment of the economy. Besides, balancing the foreign trade and curbing unrestricted importation is recommended as long as economic growth is concerned.

Foreign Direct Investment and Output Volatility Nexus: A Global Analysis

Volatility in output growth remains a genuine concern around the globe because of its detrimental effects on growth, poverty and welfare. In the realm of output volatility, the role of FDI and its consistency is particularly important and worth considering. This article examines the role of FDI inflows and specifically the instability in it on output growth volatility using a panel dataset of 141 world economies for the period 1971–2017. The study employs a variety of estimation techniques like pooled ordinary least squares (POLS), LS fixed effects (FE), LS random effects (RE), two stage least squares (2SLS) and generalised methods of moments (GMM). Findings of the study suggest that FDI acts as the volatility reducing factor, whereas uncertainty in it increases output volatility. On the policy front, this study recommends policies that not only encourage FDI inflows but also ensure the inflows to be more consistent and stable. Our results are robust corresponding to various above-mentioned estimation techniques and sensitivity analysis. JEL Codes: C23, E32, F21

FERTILITY DECLINE AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPEAN COUNTRIES AFTER 1990

ABSTRACT How do changes in socio-economic uncertainty affect fertility? For the Central and Eastern European1 1 In this group of countries, there are usually included: Albania, Belarus, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Georgia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, FYR Macedonia, the Republic of Moldova, Montenegro, Poland, Romania, the Russian Federation, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Ukraine. In our study, we limit the group to the EU members, namely to 11 countries. (CEE) countries, the literature considers economic uncertainty as a determinant factor, among others, for explaining the fertility decline after the fall of the communist regime. In this paper we evaluate the theoretical framework proposed in literature and empirically analyse the relationship between socio-economic uncertainty and fertility in the CEE countries, by using several measures of uncertainty and controlling for social and demographic variables. Employing the panel methodology for national data between 1990 and 2018, we analyse the cross-country and time variation impact of female employment, unemployment, and output growth volatility upon fertility.

The impact of inward FDI on output growth volatility: A country-sector analysis

While existing literature points to a positive impact of FDI on host countries’ growth, little is known about how inward FDI contributes to economic volatility in the host country. In this paper, we investigate the FDI-output growth volatility nexus focusing on manufacturing sectors of OECD countries over the period 1990 to 2015. We document a positive and statistically significant relationship between inward FDI stock and sectoral output volatility. We also show that the impact of inward FDI stock in downstream activities on volatility is larger compared to that of inward FDI stock in upstream activities which is not significant. Additionally, we find that the positive relationship between FDI and volatility is stronger in high capital-intensive industries. These results are robust to the use of a measure of FDI targeting practices.

The Link Between Output Growth and Output Growth Volatility: Barbados

This article investigates the effect of output volatility on output growth in Barbados, a small island developing state located in the Caribbean, based on data from 1976 through 2018. I conduct the analysis using the Stochastic Volatility in Mean model with time-varying parameters. The evidence suggests that output growth volatility, measured by stochastic volatility, negatively links with output growth at the aggregate level. I also examine disaggregate output data in order to understand this link better. The sectoral evidence suggests a positive link for services, a negative link for manufacturing, and a weak link for agriculture and the industrial sectors.

Inflation targeting: Genuine effects or publication selection bias?

Abstract This paper uses a meta-regression analysis (MRA) to evaluate the impact of publication selection bias as for the macroeconomic effects of inflation targeting (IT) – a popular approach to implementing monetary policy – documented in the existing literature. Using 8,059 point estimates from 113 studies, we show that a significant part of the documented positive effects of IT on inflation and, to some extent, output growth volatility, is in fact due to publication selection bias. In particular, results pointing to lower inflation volatility and higher real GDP growth tend to be favored by researchers, as well as those pointing to statistically significant macroeconomic effects. However, even after controlling for these two types of biases, we find IT to be correlated with lower inflation and higher real GDP growth. Differently, the evidence on the IT-inflation volatility relationship is found to be less clear.

Default cycles

Recessions are often accompanied by spikes of corporate default and credit spreads. This paper develops a tractable macroeconomic model in which the credit spread reflects the fundamental corporate default risk as well as an excess premium which responds to variation in self-fulfilling beliefs about credit conditions. The model is calibrated to evaluate the macroeconomic impact of belief shocks in comparison to standard fundamental shocks. Changes in credit market expectations generate sizable countercyclical responses of default and spread together with endogenously persistent credit cycles, accounting for most of the volatility of corporate default and close to 40% of output growth volatility.

TRADE AND FINANCIAL OPENNESS, AND OUTPUT GROWTH VOLATILITY: EVIDENCE FROM NIGERIA

This study investigates the effect of trade openness and financial openness on output growth volatility in Nigeria using annual time series data that span the period from 1970 to 2015. Output growth volatility is generated using an EGARCH (1,1) process, and this was regressed on indices or measures of trade openness, financial openness (using the Chinn-Ito index), oil price, financial development and exchange rate. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration and error correction modeling was employed for the analysis. The empirical evidence indicates that trade openness and financial openness exacerbate output growth volatility in Nigeria in the long run. Favourable crude oil price is found to play significant role in stabilizing output growth in the long run. However, the short run effect of trade openness on growth volatility is negative, implying that in the short run trade openness plays some role in reducing output growth volatility. The short run effect of financial openness on output growth volatility is also negative, but not statistically significant. Further evidence from the study is that financial development and currency depreciation also reduce growth volatility in the short run. Based on the empirical evidence, the paper recommends, as measures to reduce output growth volatility (or stabilize output growth) in Nigeria, cautious liberalization of the nation’s economy, efforts by the government to develop the nation’s financial system to expand its credit extension/provision capacity, and prevention (by the monetary authority) using appropriate policy actions, of undue appreciation of the domestic currency (the naira).
 

Do Trade Liberalisation and Financial Development Affect Macroeconomic Volatility? Evidence from Africa

The study investigates the effect of financial development and trade liberalisation on macroeconomic volatility in Africa between 1980 and 2017. The study employed panel data, de jure and de facto measures of financial openness and three estimation techniques (pooled Ordinary least square method [OLS], fixed effect and dynamic general method of moment [GMM]) to analyse the data. Results show that increased financial openness also leads to increased income volatility for the de jure measure of financial openness while for the de facto measure increased financial openness reduces income volatility. Results also show that financial openness leads to subtle volatility of output growth in Africa. The results contradict the argument that more financial openness leads to lower volatility in consumption in Africa. Furthermore, investment volatility responded to the measures of financial openness in different ways. The study conclude policymakers should focus more on policies that will foster financial system development as it has shown to be very effective in reducing macroeconomic volatility in Africa.

What is new? The role of asymmetry and breaks in oil price–output growth volatility nexus

AbstractThis study examines the role of asymmetry and breaks in oil price–output growth volatility nexus. A representative of 10 countries was selected from net oil‐exporting and‐importing economies for the period 1986–2017. It is hypothesised that countries respond differently to changes in oil price. To prove this point, we use the recent nonlinear ARDL of Shin et al. (), based on the framework of the dynamic common correlated effect of the heterogeneous panel of Chudik and Pesaran (), to decompose oil price into positive and negative partial sums. Our results show that without accounting for breaks, asymmetry only matters for net oil exporters in both short‐ and long run. However, accounting for breaks expanded the importance of asymmetry to net oil importers (in the short run). These results are robust to changes in the measures of oil price and growth volatility.

Output Growth Volatility and Remittances: The Case of ECOWAS

The study on output growth volatility and remittances: the case of ECOWAS is to determine the impact of remittances on output growth volatility. To achieve this, the study adopts the theory of altruism which posits that the migrant derives a positive utility from the well-being of the family left behind. A panel annual data set covering 15 remittances recipient ECOWAS member nations for the period ranging from 1995 to 2015 were utilized. The study utilizes a panel system Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) technique and both the static and dynamic panel estimation approaches to examine the impact of remittances on growth volatility. Results show that remittances appear to be inducing output volatility in ECOWAS member countries. As a result, the study suggests among others, the encouragement of policies that will foster increasing influx of remittances to the region by the concern authorities in order to stabilize volatility of any form in the region.

Nonfinancial sector debt and the U.S. Great Moderation: Evidence from flow‐of‐funds data

AbstractIn the mid‐1980s, two shifts occurred in the US economy: the strong decline of macroeconomic volatility and the strong increase of borrowing by the nonfinancial sector above the level of output growth until 2007. Since access to credit may decrease output fluctuations, we hypothesize that during the Great Moderation borrowing by the nonfinancial sector in excess of gross domestic product (GDP) growth moderated GDP fluctuations. We estimate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models over 1954–2008 to measure output growth volatility and run Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models and a counterfactual simulation in order to analyse the relation of credit growth in excess of output growth and output growth volatility.

The effect of output growth volatility on output growth: empirical evidence from Turkey

ABSTRACTThis article assesses the effect of output growth volatility on output growth within a stochastic-volatility-in-mean model with a time-varying framework for an open small economy: Turkey. Until now, the empirical evidence on industrial production mainly reveals that this relationship is negative. However, in further examining different sectors and sub-sectors of industrial production, we find the sign of the relationship changes depending on the sector. Moreover, there is limited evidence that the sign of the relationship changes over time. Thus, the evidence reveals that the nature of the output growth volatility–output growth relationship is not uniform across sectors.