FERTILITY DECLINE AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPEAN COUNTRIES AFTER 1990

Abstract

ABSTRACT How do changes in socio-economic uncertainty affect fertility? For the Central and Eastern European1 1 In this group of countries, there are usually included: Albania, Belarus, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Georgia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, FYR Macedonia, the Republic of Moldova, Montenegro, Poland, Romania, the Russian Federation, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Ukraine. In our study, we limit the group to the EU members, namely to 11 countries. (CEE) countries, the literature considers economic uncertainty as a determinant factor, among others, for explaining the fertility decline after the fall of the communist regime. In this paper we evaluate the theoretical framework proposed in literature and empirically analyse the relationship between socio-economic uncertainty and fertility in the CEE countries, by using several measures of uncertainty and controlling for social and demographic variables. Employing the panel methodology for national data between 1990 and 2018, we analyse the cross-country and time variation impact of female employment, unemployment, and output growth volatility upon fertility.