Default cycles

Abstract

Recessions are often accompanied by spikes of corporate default and credit spreads. This paper develops a tractable macroeconomic model in which the credit spread reflects the fundamental corporate default risk as well as an excess premium which responds to variation in self-fulfilling beliefs about credit conditions. The model is calibrated to evaluate the macroeconomic impact of belief shocks in comparison to standard fundamental shocks. Changes in credit market expectations generate sizable countercyclical responses of default and spread together with endogenously persistent credit cycles, accounting for most of the volatility of corporate default and close to 40% of output growth volatility.