Presidential Election Results Research Articles

Mali – Presidential Election Results

Africa Research Bulletin: Political, Social and Cultural SeriesVolume 55, Issue 8 p. 21970A-21970B Internal Developments Mali – Presidential Election Results First published: 21 September 2018 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-825X.2018.08412.xRead the full textAboutPDF ToolsRequest permissionExport citationAdd to favoritesTrack citation ShareShare Give accessShare full text accessShare full-text accessPlease review our Terms and Conditions of Use and check box below to share full-text version of article.I have read and accept the Wiley Online Library Terms and Conditions of UseShareable LinkUse the link below to share a full-text version of this article with your friends and colleagues. Learn more.Copy URL Share a linkShare onFacebookTwitterLinkedInRedditWechat No abstract is available for this article. Volume55, Issue8September 2018Pages 21970A-21970B RelatedInformation

Demographic Shifts Influencing the Political Landscape of the Lake Victoria Basin in Uganda

High population growth in Uganda is associated with substantial reduction in Infant and Child mortality without commensurate reduction in fertility. Kampala city (100% urban) and Wakiso district (59% urban) are densely populated with 9,429 and 1,100 people per square km respectively (UBOS [1]). The paper explains strong links between high population growth rate of 3.03% / annum, high rate of urbanization (5.1% / annum) one of the major demographic shifts in the country and the changing political landscape of Kampala City and Wakiso district. The paper utilizes both primary and secondary data. Time series gridded population density data was obtained from the Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) database and processed in ArcGIS 10.1 program. Change detection analysis for three periods; 2000, 2010 and 2015 was conducted to determine the spatial and temporal patterns of population density in the Lake Victoria Basin. Primary data was obtained from in-depth interviews. Secondary population data was obtained from Uganda Population and Housing Census results (UPHC) 1991, 2002 and 2014; and Uganda Presidential Election results of 2001, 2006, 2011 and 2016. Results based on the imagery analysis of the gridded data reveals increasing concentration and hotspot of population density in the Lake Victoria Basin signifying it not only an economic center but also a political hotspot region. The paper reveals that high population growth rate and urbanization have influenced dependency ratio, unemployment, underemployment, poverty, standards of social services and infrastructure as well as political landscape and ramblings. It explains why the National Resistance Movement (NRM) ruling party despite its national strength performs poorly in the urban areas as compared to opposition led by Forum for Democratic Change (FDC). The paper recommends fast tracking the establishment of Kampala metropolitan area, consultative development planning that balances economic and environmental concerns and emphasizing urban development as opposed to creation of new districts.

Them and us: Did Democrat inclusiveness and Republican solidarity lead to the 2016 US presidential election outcome?

This research examined the role that group dynamics played in the 2016 US presidential election. Just prior to the election, participants were assessed on perceived self-similarity to group members’ views, perception of own leader’s prototypicality, perceptions of social values, and strength of support (attitudes). Results indicated that Democrats were more inclusive, seeing more similarity between themselves and members from the outgroup political party, while Republicans displayed more ingroup solidarity and negative attitudes toward outgroup members. Trump was viewed as a more prototypical leader by Republicans than Clinton was by Democrats. These results may help to explain the perhaps surprising fragility of Democrat voters’ support for Clinton.

A note on internet use and the 2016 U.S. presidential election outcome.

We use data from the American National Election Studies from 1996 to 2016 to study the role of the internet in the 2016 U.S. presidential election outcome. We compare trends in the Republican share of the vote between likely and unlikely internet users, and between actual internet users and non-users. Relative to prior years, the Republican share of the vote in 2016 was as high or higher among the groups least active online.

Predicting State Presidential Election Results Using National Tracking Polls and Multilevel Regression with Poststratification (MRP)

Predicting State Presidential Election Results Using National Tracking Polls and Multilevel Regression with Poststratification (MRP)

How surprising was Trump's victory? Evaluations of the 2016 U.S. presidential election and a new poll aggregation model

The U.S. presidential election results of 2016 surprised many poll-watchers, suggesting possible biases in estimated support for the major party candidates and posing a challenge for poll aggregation as a prediction tool. Using data from earlier elections and the 2016 campaign, we evaluated poll aggregation performance for the major prediction web sites. We found that a proportional bias, partly due to non-major party preference during polling, had a large impact on state-level estimates. A novel smoothing mixed effects model that is sensitive to both national and state-specific trends showed similar or superior performance to other aggregation methods over multiple elections. The improvement of the proposed model over competing methods was especially large in 2016, which we largely attribute to the late swing in voter support for the candidates, and suggests that the average bias in polling may be smaller than assumed. Simulations of electoral college outcomes indicate that, on the eve of the election, the probability of a Trump victory was about 47%. We suggest that an increased emphasis on fundamental statistical tradeoffs of bias and variance may be the key to further improved prediction.

Candidates and campaigns: How they alter election forecasts

We know that candidates and campaigns matter in democratic elections, but that knowledge may not be readily observed in most structural models of national election forecasting. For one, these models virtually never include direct, explicit candidate-related campaign variables as predictors. At most, these candidate/campaign variables are picked up indirectly, usually in polling measures, such as vote intention. For another, the models often manage accurate, ex ante forecasts of US presidential election results, even without the obvious pr​esence of such variables. In this effort, we aim to overcome this paradox by including more direct candidate and campaign measures in a long-standing structural equation model of presidential election forecasting, namely the Political Economy model. We find that inclusions of these candidate and campaign variables do improve the theoretical specification and the statistical performance of the model, and do yield generally more accurate forecasts. However, at least for the test case of the 2016 contest, that increased precision failed to substantively alter the Clinton popular vote forecast.

Multilevel Regression and Poststratification: A Modeling Approach to Estimating Population Quantities From Highly Selected Survey Samples.

Investigators in large-scale population health studies face increasing difficulties in recruiting representative samples of participants. Nonparticipation, item nonresponse, and attrition, when follow-up is involved, often result in highly selected samples even in well-designed studies. We aimed to assess the potential value of multilevel regression and poststratification, a method previously used to successfully forecast US presidential election results, for addressing biases due to nonparticipation in the estimation of population descriptive quantities in large cohort studies. The investigation was performed as an extensive case study using baseline data (2013-2014) from a large national health survey of Australian males (Ten to Men: The Australian Longitudinal Study on Male Health). Analyses were performed in the open-source Bayesian computational package RStan. Results showed greater consistency and precision across population subsets of varying sizes when compared with estimates obtained using conventional survey sampling weights. Estimates for smaller population subsets exhibited a greater degree of shrinkage towards the national estimate. Multilevel regression and poststratification provides a promising analytical approach to addressing potential participation bias in the estimation of population descriptive quantities from large-scale health surveys and cohort studies.

Egypt – Presidential Election Results

Egypt – Presidential Election Results

How Nigeria’s 2015 presidential election outcome was forecasted with geodemographics and public sentiment analytics

In 2015, Nigeria held one of the most fiercely contested presidential elections in the nation’s recent democratic history. The outcome of the election was expected to exert significant influence on democratic practices on the African continent. The stiffness of the contest also meant that it was difficult to predict the likely winner of the election. This paper summarizes how an empirical approach was used to forecast the outcome of the election by modeling public sentiment data-set using a geodemographic framework. Results indicate that the main electorates that determined the outcome of the election were situated in thirteen battleground states. Additionally, results showed that two years before the presidential election, Goodluck Jonathan’s public approval ratings on corruption, insecurity, and the economy (the main drivers of the 2015 election) had nose-dived across many of the battleground states. This eventually contributed toward his loss.

The 2016 Presidential Election Outcome: Fears, Tension, and Resiliency of GLBTQ Communities

ABSTRACTThe outcome of the 2016 US presidential election has raised concerns in the gay, lesbian, bisexual, transgender and queer (GLBTQ) communities nationwide. Utilizing an online survey, we queried GLBTQ individuals about the election outcome and specifically their reactions and experiences from Donald Trump's presidential victory and their interactions with family members who casted a vote different from themselves. Findings revealed that the majority of participants (82%) voted for Democratic presidential nominee, Hillary Clinton. Participants reported that the 2016 election results were stressful and in some cases created interpersonal tension between family, friends, and coworkers. They feared that recent gains like marriage equality and healthcare access would be compromised. Despite these stressors and fears, participants also shared what has allowed them to cope and maintain hope following the election. Implications for mental health professionals offering support to GLBTQ individuals as they face the uncertainty of President Trump's agenda are discussed.

Presidential Election Results and Stock Market Performance: Evidence From Nigeria

The study investigates the effect of Presidential election results on the performance of an emerging stock market using the case of the 2011 and 2015 Presidential elections in Nigeria. Adopting Event Study methodology to analyse the secondary data obtained from the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) and some national dailies, the results of the study suggest that the 2011 presidential election result had negative significant impact on the performance of the stock market. On the other hand, the 2015 Presidential election result had positive but insignificant impact on the stock market as evidenced by the average and cumulative abnormal returns on the event date and one day post-event date- an indication that the result of the 2015 Presidential election was a welcomed development as leadership changed from PDP to All Progressives Congress (APC).

The results of Presidential elections in Czech Republic

The results of Presidential elections in Czech Republic

Wyniki wyborów prezydenckich, parlamentarnych i referendów na świecie w okresie od 1 kwietnia 2018 roku do 30 września 2018 roku

Wyniki wyborów prezydenckich, parlamentarnych i referendów na świecie w okresie od 1 kwietnia 2018 roku do 30 września 2018 roku

The dynamic nationalisation of voting for United Russia: the stability / instability of regional deviations from national results

ABSTRACTBased on the results of Duma and Presidential elections over the period 2003–2016, this article examines cross-regional variation in static and dynamic nationalisation of voting for United Russia (UR). The main finding is that in an overwhelming majority of Russian regions, a high level of static nationalisation is accompanied by a high level of dynamic nationalisation. In most of the regions, voting for UR rises or falls in a consistent manner across the elections. Cross-regional variations in both static and dynamic nationalisation of UR’s support are mostly explained by the degree of authoritarianism in Russian regions.

The Blogosphere and Political News in Nigeria: A Content Study of the Contributions of Linda Ikeji's Blog to the Journaling of the 2015 Presidential Election Results

The 2015 Elections in Nigeria is one of the most significant events in Nigerian history; at least in the recent past. Nigerians were highly disposed to the electioneering process by their active participation especially through the platforms provided by the social media. Hence, various social media outlets formulated dependable avenues for the sharing of news items connected with the elections. Among the numerous blogs that excelled in journaling the election is Linda Ikeji’s blog; a popular blog site in Nigeria. This exposition focuses on the contributions of Linda Ikeji’s blog in the dissemination the news of the elections results. The study adopts a content analysis approach to analyze the readership of the blog within election period. The subsequent feedback from the content research aids the researcher to gauge the contributions of Linda Ikeji blog in political news journaling during the 2015 General Elections in Nigeria.

Rage Grief Comfort &

Documentation and analysis by Laurie Beth Clark and Michael Peterson of a project by the arts collective Spatula&Barcode: In December 2016 a major city building in Madison, Wisconsin was closed for renovation, and enterprising curators installed a massive temporary art exhibition, titled Municipal. As the community was in the midst of processing the presidential election results, we created Rage Grief Comfort & with the explicit aim of moving participants through and past their immediate emotions.

Mapping the political discourse of the Iranian Green Movement

Recognizing the creative political communication strategies initiated by the Iranian Green Movement in June 2009 following disputed presidential election results is essential in order to broaden the currently narrow conceptualizations and considerations of the ‘Arab spring’ and contemporary mediated protests. We consider how the Green Movement articulated alternative discursive strategies in their resistance to perceived voter fraud in Iran, leading to numerous arrests and violence. The Green Movement emerged with an imaginative civil disobedience campaign, worth exploring as a creative communication strategy toward political resistance.

Did Obamacare Implementation Cost Clinton the 2016 Election?

We combine administrative records from the federal health insurance exchange with aggregate- and individual-level voting data to examine how health care reform affected the 2016 election. Overall, we find that personal experiences with the Affordable Care Act influenced voting decisions and conceivably altered the presidential election outcome in pivotal states, suggesting that Republican efforts to undermine the law's implementation paid tangible political dividends. We also show that voters purchasing coverage through the exchange responded to premium price hikes publicized shortly before the election -- despite most receiving a tax credit that largely shielded them from the increases. We hypothesize that the exchange website's design and information in renewal letters sent by insurers reduced the salience of federal subsidies and made consumers needlessly sensitive to the sticker prices of health insurance. Survey responses collected before the premiums became public provide additional evidence that the premium effects are indeed causal.

Liberia – First Round Presidential Election Results

Liberia – First Round Presidential Election Results