Abstract
High population growth in Uganda is associated with substantial reduction in Infant and Child mortality without commensurate reduction in fertility. Kampala city (100% urban) and Wakiso district (59% urban) are densely populated with 9,429 and 1,100 people per square km respectively (UBOS [1]). The paper explains strong links between high population growth rate of 3.03% / annum, high rate of urbanization (5.1% / annum) one of the major demographic shifts in the country and the changing political landscape of Kampala City and Wakiso district. The paper utilizes both primary and secondary data. Time series gridded population density data was obtained from the Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) database and processed in ArcGIS 10.1 program. Change detection analysis for three periods; 2000, 2010 and 2015 was conducted to determine the spatial and temporal patterns of population density in the Lake Victoria Basin. Primary data was obtained from in-depth interviews. Secondary population data was obtained from Uganda Population and Housing Census results (UPHC) 1991, 2002 and 2014; and Uganda Presidential Election results of 2001, 2006, 2011 and 2016. Results based on the imagery analysis of the gridded data reveals increasing concentration and hotspot of population density in the Lake Victoria Basin signifying it not only an economic center but also a political hotspot region. The paper reveals that high population growth rate and urbanization have influenced dependency ratio, unemployment, underemployment, poverty, standards of social services and infrastructure as well as political landscape and ramblings. It explains why the National Resistance Movement (NRM) ruling party despite its national strength performs poorly in the urban areas as compared to opposition led by Forum for Democratic Change (FDC). The paper recommends fast tracking the establishment of Kampala metropolitan area, consultative development planning that balances economic and environmental concerns and emphasizing urban development as opposed to creation of new districts.
Highlights
Uganda has one of the youngest populations in the world with nearly half of them aged below 15 years
While on the other hand, increase in school enrolment due to Universal Primary Education (UPE) and Universal Secondary Education (USE) and urbanization coupled with increased contraceptive prevalence have led to the reduction of fertility
Given that there is low productivity in agriculture, relocation of workers from the sector to other sectors impacts on per capita growth and employment positives. This has culminated to rural urban migration of young educated people seeking for employment more especially in Kampala and the surrounding urban areas of Wakiso district
Summary
Uganda has one of the youngest populations in the world with nearly half of them aged below 15 years. Given that there is low productivity in agriculture, relocation of workers from the sector to other sectors (industries and services) impacts on per capita growth and employment positives This has culminated to rural urban migration of young educated people seeking for employment more especially in Kampala and the surrounding urban areas of Wakiso district. In Uganda, the high population growth rate and urbanization have led to high dependency ratio, unemployment, underemployment, poverty, low standards of social services and infrastructure as well as influencing the political landscape that is always associated with ramblings. Urban centers in the Lake Victoria Basin, notably Kampala City and Wakiso district in Uganda have been experiencing increasing population densities due the relatively conducive economic conditions compared to other areas. The study was more focused on the electoral dynamics and voting patterns spanning a period of 2001 to 2016 that coincides with reasonable data availability on vote scores of major parties in Uganda
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