Abstract
We use data from the American National Election Studies from 1996 to 2016 to study the role of the internet in the 2016 U.S. presidential election outcome. We compare trends in the Republican share of the vote between likely and unlikely internet users, and between actual internet users and non-users. Relative to prior years, the Republican share of the vote in 2016 was as high or higher among the groups least active online.
Highlights
Many have hypothesized that the internet and social media impacted the outcome of the 2016 U.S presidential election
In a post-election interview, Hillary Clinton emphasized the role of social media in the election, citing fake news, Russian intervention, and Republicans’ success in “marrying content with delivery and data” [1]
It is important to note that the composition of internet users is changing over time
Summary
Many have hypothesized that the internet and social media impacted the outcome of the 2016 U.S presidential election. Our findings may be viewed as implying that, if the internet was a significant source of advantage to Trump, at least one of assumptions (i), (ii), or (iii) must be violated in a quantitatively significant way We discuss this possibility in more detail in the concluding section. Our outcome variable is the party that the respondent voted for in the most recent presidential election We construct this variable from responses to “How about the election for President? Our second measure, which we refer to as whether or not a respondent observed campaign news online, comes from responses to “Have you seen any information about this election campaign on (the Internet/the Web)?” for 1996–2004, “Did you read, watch, or listen to any information about the campaign for President on the Internet?” for 2008–2012, and whether respondents “heard anything about the presidential campaign” on “Internet sites, chat rooms, or blogs” for 2016. Please see S1 Replication Code for exact details on the variables and samples used along with their construction
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
