Unemployment Research Articles

Analysing regional and sectoral productivity changes in the Indian economy

AbstractMotivationNumerous domestic and international studies have shown that India's business environment has shortcomings that have hindered and distorted investment, reducing growth and job creation. There is geographical variation in the distribution of sectoral and regional production in India. Therefore, it is necessary to investigate the role geography plays in evaluating the effects of shifts in aggregate and disaggregate productivity.PurposeThis research attempts to build a unified framework to consider regional and sectoral changes as heterogeneous factors affecting productivity in India. It explores whether the fundamental changes in productivity are locational or sectoral.Approach and MethodsThis article focuses on three aspects: (1) It identifies variables based on previous literature. The aggregate industry analysis for both Punjab and India is based on independent variables. The study uses the 2SLS‐estimator using STATA in a single‐step endogeneity problem. (2) For disaggregate or sectoral analysis, it identifies four industries across India and Punjab. We confine our analysis to these four industries since the present study is done at both aggregate and disaggregate levels covering national and state level analysis. (3) It sets out separate interpretations for the aggregate analysis, setting it apart from disaggregate analysis.FindingsFor aggregate industry analysis, the results for Indian and Punjab industry adhere to Verdoorn's law which states that in the long run productivity generally grows proportionally to the square root of output. In that value‐added growth is a major factor affecting total factor productivity for Indian firms across both regions. The Punjab group shows non‐linearity between productivity and concentration. Concentration leads to some increase in productivity but this then declines.Policy ImplicationsPolicy‐makers should promote the establishment of more medium‐sized firms to enhance productivity across all regions in India.The skilled‐labour ratio emerged as significant for the Punjab group, though this is because the state has a higher proportion of small‐scale industries which are more labour intensive than the overall India group. As such, specific policies should be aimed at the manufacturing sector at state level to enhance productivity, taking into consideration unique features of each group.Policy‐makers should address the inefficiency of the industrial policy overseen by the Ministry of Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises.

Depression, anxiety and its predictor among internally displaced person in metekel Ethiopia, 2023: using a structural equation model

IntroductionThese individuals face psychological and physical trauma, loss of jobs, and emotional isolation, which may lead to the development of depression and anxiety. In 2022, 120 countries had over 71 million IDPs, a 20% increase from the previous year. In sub-Saharan Africa, natural disasters accounted for 40% of all new IDPs worldwide.MethodAn institutional-based cross-sectional study was conducted in Ethiopia. A systematic random sampling method was used to select 997 respondents. Data were collected using a structured interview questionnaire. STATA Version 17 and Amos Version 21 were used for the analysis. Descriptive statistics were summarized using frequency, percentage, table, graph, chart, figure, and summary statistics. Structural equation modeling was employed to assess the relationship.ResultThe overall prevalence of depression and anxiety was 79.64% (95% CI: 77.02 82.03) and 74.62% (95% CI =71.83%, 77.23%) respectively. age (adjusted β = 0.0034, 95% CI: 0.0012, 0.0056), history of the death of a loved one (adjusted β = 0.132, 95% CI: 0.0803, 0.185), had formal education (β = -0.164, 95% CI: -0.229, -0.098) occupation other (adjusted β = -0.183, 95% CI: -0.261, -0.105), Not having medically confirmed mental illness (adjusted β = -0.185, 95% CI: (-0.325, -0.045), PTSD score (adjusted β = 0.0082, 95% CI: 0.0048, 0.012) associated with anxiety.ConclusionDisplacement medically confirmed mental illness, death of a loved one, and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) significantly impact anxiety. Policymakers should provide greater access to mental health management and prevention services, and medical practitioners should understand the connection between depression and anxiety.

The Effect of Work Motivation and Work Skill on Career Decision Moderated by Internship Program in The Hotel Industry of Lampung Province

The global tourism and hospitality industry continues to show rapid growth, making significant contributions to economic development, job creation, and education. Lampung Province is experiencing similar developments, marked by an increase in the number of tourits visits and significant growth in accommodation businesses. This competitive hospitality sector demands human resources (HR) with superior skills (work skills) and work motivation, which can be obtained through internship programs. Internship programs are designed to provide practical experience to students, so that they are better prepared to face the world of work. This study aims to analyze the influence of work motivation and work skills on career decisions, with internship programs as a moderating variable in the Lampung Province hospitality industry. The study focuses on hotel employees from formal and non-formal educational institutions, who have participated in internship programs in accordance with vocational education policies in Indonesia. With this approach, the study is expected to fill the gap from previous studies, as well as provide recommendations for educational institution managers and industry players to improve the work readiness of graduates in supporting the competitiveness of the hospitality sector. This research methodology uses a quantitative approach to test the relationship between variables. The object of this study was starred hotel workers in Lampung who participated in an internship program, with a population of 1,499 people. A sample of 266 respondents was selected using purposive sampling based on internship experience criteria, according to Roscoe's theory for multivariate research. The test results showed that Work Motivation and Work Skill had a positive and significant effect on Career Decision. Internship Program moderation also strengthened the relationship, where Work Motivation and Work Skill moderated by the Internship Program significantly influenced Career Decision. This confirms the importance of motivation, skills, and internship experience in supporting career decisions.

Poverty reduction during the COVID-19 pandemic: How did the European union perform relative to the United States?

The COVID-19 pandemic led to declines in market income and increases in unemployment across much of the European Union (EU) and the United States (US), and had the potential to increase poverty rates. However, the US and EU Member States adopted vastly different strategies for mitigating the economic consequences of the crisis. Using EU-SILC data and the U.S. Current Population Survey, this study compares the poverty-reduction performance of the EU and US from before the pandemic to during the pandemic. We find that unemployment and market poverty rates increased in many countries, disproportionately more in the US than in the EU, but welfare states largely compensated for those losses. Post-tax/transfer poverty rates for the average EU country did not change from 2019 to 2020, and poverty decreased substantially in the US. The US experienced the largest pre-tax/transfer increase in poverty rates, yet also the largest post-tax/transfers declines in poverty rates from 2019 to 2020. This suggests an improvement from historically poor poverty-reduction performances and underscores a policy approach focused on income support, contrasting with the EU’s emphasis on short-time work schemes. Among all countries, changes in pre-tax/transfer poverty rates were not positively correlated with changes in post-tax/transfer poverty. Overall, welfare states generally increased their performance enough to prevent what could have been large increases in post-tax/transfer poverty during the first year of the pandemic, with the US increasing its poverty-reduction performance more than any EU country.

Unlocking the Potential of Solar Energy in India: Regional Feasibility and Socio-Economic Impacts

India, as one of the world’s fastest-growing economies, faces a substantial challenge in meeting its escalating energy demands. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), India is expected to become the largest driver of global energy demand over the next few decades, with its energy consumption projected to grow by over 50% by 2040 [1]. Presently, the country relies heavily on conventional energy sources, primarily coal, to meet its energy needs, contributing to air pollution, environmental degradation, and significant carbon emissions. In light of these challenges, renewable energy sources, particularly solar power, have emerged as viable alternatives to ensure sustainable energy production while addressing environmental concerns [2]. India's geographic location provides it with an abundance of solar radiation, making it one of the most favorable regions for solar energy deployment. The country receives an average of 4–7 kWh/m² of solar radiation per day, with areas in the western and southern parts of India receiving the highest solar insolation levels [3]. Recognizing this vast potential, the Indian government has aggressively pursued the development of solar power through initiatives such as the National Solar Mission (NSM), which targets an installed capacity of 100 GW by 2022 and 500 GW by 2030 [4]. These ambitious targets are part of a broader strategy to reduce the country’s dependence on fossil fuels, mitigate the impacts of climate change, and transition to a low-carbon economy. The rapid growth of the solar sector is further supported by favorable policies, financial incentives, and a supportive regulatory environment designed to attract investments and accelerate the adoption of solar technologies. Despite its immense potential, the large-scale adoption of solar energy in India faces several hurdles. The initial capital cost of solar installations remains one of the most significant barriers, with the upfront investment for both residential and commercial systems being relatively high compared to conventional energy sources. Additionally, the intermittency of solar energy, along with a lack of adequate energy storage solutions, raises concerns regarding grid stability and reliability [5]. Moreover, the availability of financing options, access to skilled labor, and local infrastructure challenges can also impede the widespread deployment of solar technologies. These factors necessitate a comprehensive feasibility and economic analysis to evaluate the true potential of solar energy in India, taking into account both the technical and financial aspects of large-scale solar projects. This paper explores the potential of solar energy in India, with a focus on regional feasibility and socio-economic impacts. The study evaluates the financial viability, technical performance, and long-term benefits of solar energy installations across different regions, taking into account factors such as solar resource availability, land requirements, technological choices, and local economic conditions. The aim is to assess the feasibility of solar power projects at the regional level and examine the socio-economic outcomes, including job creation, income generation, and rural development. Through a comprehensive analysis of costs, benefits, and socio-economic impacts, this study seeks to provide insights into how solar energy can contribute to India’s energy security and sustainable development goals, while identifying strategies to overcome barriers to its wider adoption

Social Distress and (Some) Relief: Estimating the Impact of Pandemic Job Loss on Poverty in South Africa

Social Distress and (Some) Relief: Estimating the Impact of Pandemic Job Loss on Poverty in South Africa

Development of per Capita GDP Forecasting Model Using Deep Learning: Including Consumer Goods Index and Unemployment Rate

In the 21st century, the increasing complexity and uncertainty of the global economy have heightened the need for accurate economic forecasting. Per capita GDP, a critical indicator of living standards, economic growth, and productivity, plays a key role in government policy-making, corporate strategy, and investor decisions. However, predicting per capita GDP poses significant challenges due to its sensitivity to various economic and social factors. Traditional methods such as statistical analysis, regression, and time-series models have shown limitations in capturing nonlinear interactions and volatility of economic data. To address these limitations, this study develops a per capita GDP forecasting model based on deep learning, incorporating key macroeconomic variables—the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and unemployment rate (UR)—to enhance predictive accuracy. This study employs five deep-learning regression models (RNN, LSTM, GRU, TCN, and Transformer) applied to real and placebo datasets, each incorporating combinations of CPI and UR. The results demonstrate that deep learning models can effectively capture complex, nonlinear relationships in economic data, significantly improving predictive accuracy compared to traditional models. Among the models, the Transformer consistently achieves the highest R-squared and lowest error values across various metrics (MSE, RMSE, and MSLE), indicating its superior ability to model intricate economic patterns. In addition, including CPI and UR as additional predictors enhances model robustness, with the TCN and Transformer models showing particularly strong performance in capturing short-term economic fluctuations. The findings suggest that the deep learning models, especially the Transformer, offer valuable tools for policymakers and business leaders, providing reliable GDP forecasts that support economic decision-making, resource allocation, and strategic planning. Academically, this study advances the understanding of deep learning applications in economic forecasting, particularly in integrating significant macroeconomic variables for enhanced predictive performance. The developed model is a foundation for informed economic policy and strategic decisions, offering a robust and actionable framework for managing economic uncertainties. This research contributes to theoretical and applied economics, providing insights that bridge academic innovation with practical utility in economic forecasting.

The Impact of Taxation on the Performance of Small to Medium Enterprises (SMEs) in the Lowveld/Chiredzi District

This study investigates the impact of taxation on the performance of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in the Lowveld of Zimbabwe. SMEs are crucial for economic development, job creation, and poverty reduction in Zimbabwe. However, high tax levels and complex tax systems pose significant challenges for these businesses. The primary problem addressed in this study is the negative impact of taxation on SME performance in the Lowveld. The aim is to understand the specific tax-related challenges SMEs face and to propose solutions that could enhance their performance and sustainability. The study is grounded in three key theories: The Theory of Taxation and Economic Growth, the Laffer Curve Theory, and the Theory of Compliance Costs. These theories provide a foundation for analyzing how different aspects of taxation influence SME performance. The researcher employed both qualitative and quantitative data since they all provide in-depth data about the relationship between taxation and SME performance. This study employed a descriptive research design, using document analysis, observation schedules, and questionnaires. Fieldwork revealed that high tax rates, lack of tax knowledge, and inefficient tax administration are major obstacles for SMEs. These factors negatively affect profitability, cash flow, and overall financial health. The average rating for ease of meeting tax obligations was 3.33 out of 10, highlighting the severe impact of taxes on business operations. The study concludes that taxation significantly hinders the performance of SMEs in the Lowveld. High tax burdens, coupled with poor tax knowledge and administrative inefficiencies, undermine SME growth and sustainability. To mitigate these challenges, the study recommends improving tax education among SME owners, simplifying tax administration processes, and introducing more effective tax incentives. These measures could alleviate the financial burden on SMEs, fostering a more conducive environment for their growth and contribution to the economy

Risk of Job Loss During the COVID-19 Pandemic Predicts Anxiety in Women

Risk of Job Loss During the COVID-19 Pandemic Predicts Anxiety in Women

Moderating Effect of Informal Sector Contribution on the Relationship Between Entrepreneurial Spirit and Job Creation in Kaduna State

Job creation has been widely acknowledged as a means of achieving economic sustainable development through the reduction of the level of social vices and generation of entrepreneurial mindset. However, the contribution of the informal sector has been little or even insignificant and thus implies a decline in entrepreneurial spirit, which is believed to hamper venture creation. This study adopted the descriptive survey approach and 489 respondents were sampled using the proportionate stratified sampling technique from the population of 15,558 small businesses across the twenty-three local government areas in Kaduna State. Entrepreneurship Event Model framework was adopted to underpin the study. The findings indicated a positive relationship between entrepreneurial spirit and job creation and the results further revealed that informal sector contribution does not significantly moderate the relationship between entrepreneurial spirit and job creation. The study recommended that policymakers should provide a conducive entrepreneurial ecosystem that will foster the development of entrepreneurial spirit, as it is capable of improving job creation which fosters economic development.

Analisis Tingkat Kriminalitas di Jawa Tengah dengan Pendekatan Distribusi Poisson dan Binomial Negatif

This study analyses the influence of factors causing crime in Central Java Province in 2022, with variables including poverty, population density, education, Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP), unemployment rate, and food and non-food consumption. Crime in this region is a social issue that needs attention, given the impact it has on both the economy and social community. Criminality data in the form of count data is analysed using Poisson and Negative Binomial regression to overcome the problem of overdispersion, which allows the model to more accurately estimate the relationship between variables. The results showed that the Negative Binomial regression model was better than Poisson regression, based on the AIC (Akaike Information Criteria) value. The variables of poverty and education were found to have a significant influence on crime rates, indicating the importance of social and educational policies in reducing crime rates. Meanwhile, the variables of population density, GRDP, unemployment rate, and food consumption showed no significant effect. These findings provide important insights for the government in formulating policies aimed at reducing crime rates and improving social stability in Central Java Province. This research is expected to be the basis for the development of data-based policies to improve the welfare of the community.

OPTIMALISASI LAYANAN TERPADU UNTUK PERTUMBUHAN INVESTASI DI KOTA KENDARI

This study aims to determine the Strategy of the Investment Service and One-Stop Integrated Service in Increasing Investment in Kendari City. The research was conducted using qualitative descriptive research. The informants in this study are as follows: Secretary of the One-Stop Integrated Investment Service Office, Head of the One-Stop Integrated Investment Service Division, Head of the One-Stop Integrated Investment Service Determination Division, Young Expert Policy Analysis/Head of Investment Climate Development Section\IMB Technical Team, Investment Data Processor. Thus, the total number of informants is 5 people. The results of the study show that the strategy implemented by the Kendari City DPMPTSP in increasing investment has included comprehensive efforts through simplifying licensing, promoting regional potential, and improving one-stop services. Good strategic planning and supporting regulations, such as the Investment Law and the Job Creation Law, have become important foundations for creating investment certainty. Partnerships with various parties and developing human resource capacity have also strengthened the quality of DPMPTSP services. Although it has not fully achieved the investment target, the realized investment contribution significantly impacts the local economy, including job creation, increasing purchasing power, developing MSMEs, and infrastructure development.

Neighbourhood socioeconomic conditions and emergency admissions for ambulatory care sensitive conditions in children: a longitudinal ecological analysis in England, 2012–2017

BackgroundAmbulatory care sensitive conditions (ACSCs) are those for which hospital admission could be prevented by interventions in primary care. Children living in socioeconomic disadvantage have higher rates of emergency admissions...

SWOT Analysis of Ijarah Contracts in the Service Industry: Strategies for Growth and Challenges

The service industry is a critical driver of the global economy, contributing significantly to job creation and quality of life improvement. To remain competitive in an increasingly challenging market, service companies must adopt effective strategies to meet customer expectations. SWOT analysis is a strategic tool that helps businesses identify strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats, making it a valuable approach in this context. This study focuses on applying SWOT analysis to business management in ijarah contracts, a leasing arrangement aligned with sharia principles. The research utilized a qualitative approach, engaging 20 business practitioners in the service industry located in West Java, Indonesia. Data collection methods included in-depth interviews and a comprehensive literature review on ijarah contracts and their application within the service sector. The findings highlight the strengths of ijarah contracts, particularly their compliance with sharia principles and substantial market potential. However, notable weaknesses include limited public understanding of ijarah contracts and the burden of high operational costs. Opportunities such as digitalization and the expanding sharia economy offer significant growth prospects, while threats from conventional financial systems and global economic instability present challenges that require strategic management. The study underscores the importance of addressing operational inefficiencies and enhancing market awareness of ijarah contracts. Furthermore, leveraging digital technology and capitalizing on the growth of the sharia economy can strengthen the position of ijarah-based businesses.

Transformation from Neoclassicism to Austrian School: Javier Mileis Economic Evolution

Under President Javier Milei, Argentina's economic policies have drastically changed, shifting from neoclassical concepts to an Austrian School-inspired libertarian framework. His administration has placed a high priority on deregulation, fiscal restraint, and monetary stability in an effort to reduce government intervention and combat inflation. The economic, social, and political effects of Milei's actions during his first one-and-a-half years in power are evaluated in this paper, along with views from across the world and the viability of implementing his strategy in Germany. This study uses a mixed-methods approach, using quantitative data (inflation, GDP, unemployment rates, and fiscal balances), secondary literature (economic analysis, political commentary), and primary sources (government programs, Milei's speeches). According to the results, Milei's measures have been effective in lowering inflation, which by October 2024 had dropped from 211% in 2023 to a monthly rate of 2.7%. The social consequences of quick fiscal consolidation are reflected in the fact that these changes have also resulted in an economic recession (GDP -4%), increased unemployment (8%), and a rise in poverty (53%). Reactions to Milei's policies have been divided on a global scale. Keynesian critics warn of economic stagnation and growing inequality, while Austrian and libertarian economists praise his deregulation and fiscal restraint. In terms of transferability, Germany's robust social market economy and institutional protections make full-scale adoption of free-market ideas impossible, even though some of them may be modified there. Future research should look at the long-term impact of Milei's changes and their applicability in various economic circumstances since the study concludes that his initiatives provide both potential and risks and serve as a test case for extreme fiscal conservatism

Pemodelan Tingkat Kemiskinan di Provinsi Aceh Menggunakan Distribusi Poisson dan Binomial Negatif

This study aims to model the poverty rate in Aceh Province using the Generalized Linear Models (GLMs) approach with the Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) method. The models used in this study include Poisson and Negative Binomial regression. The data used includes variables of per capita expenditure, population density, average years of schooling, open unemployment rate, and labor force participation. Multicollinearity tests were conducted using Tolerance and Variance Inflation Factor (VIF) values to ensure the absence of multicollinearity problems between predictor variables. The results show that the Negative Binomial model is better than the Poisson model, as indicated by the smaller WAIC value. The average years of schooling variable has a significant negative effect, while the open unemployment rate has a significant positive effect on the poverty rate. Meanwhile, the variables of expenditure per capita, population density, and labor force participation make smaller and partially insignificant contributions in the model. Thus, increasing access to education and reducing unemployment are key factors in poverty alleviation efforts in Aceh Province. The results of this study are expected to serve as a reference for policy makers in formulating effective strategies to reduce poverty.

Foresight study for addressing megatrends in information and communication technology (ICT)

Information and communications technology (ICT) encompasses the infrastructure and components that enable modern computing. In the context of Europe, the adoption of cutting-edge ICT is rapidly accelerating competitiveness, innovation, and job creation. However, this progress depends on a skilled workforce capable of implementing these advanced technologies effectively. This study aims to explore current ICT trends while addressing the digital skills gap in Southern Europe. The research focused on three countries: Greece, Cyprus, and Bulgaria. To gather relevant insights, two rounds of the Delphi technique were employed to reach a consensus on the most crucial digital skills shaping the future.The findings reveal a rapidly evolving landscape of digital competencies essential for navigating the transformative era of advanced ICT technologies. The study highlights emerging megatrends in the ICT sector, such as AI integration, cybersecurity challenges, and the shift toward 5G, underscoring the need for continuous upskilling to remain competitive in the global market. As ICT continues to evolve, it is clear that developing a skilled workforce will be vital to unlocking the potential of these technologies in Southern Europe.

Importance of Local Economic Development as a Strategy to Enhance Community Development Projects in Thulamela Local Municipality

The study explores the importance of Local Economic Development ( LED) in enhancing community development projects in Thulamela Local Municipality (TLM). South Africa attempts to combat unemployment, poverty and inequality. The introduction of LED in communities aims to generate jobs, alleviate poverty prevalent in various communities across the country. The LED strategy leverages local resources, communities, public institutions, and private sector to generate employment, alleviate poverty in rural areas and adressing unemployment. The study used Mixed Research Method (MRM). Interviews and questionnaires data was collected concurrently from two different sample sizes. Data collected through questionnaires was analysed, presented and interpreted. thematic analysis was used to analyse data collected through interviews. Thematic analysis results found four main themes namely, poverty, unemployment, job creation, local economy and skills. A sample size of (N=110) participants from TLM. Research findings indicates that LED is crucial in generating job opportunities, reducing povertyin local communities, and boosting economic growth. The study offers insights for TLM policy-makers to effectively implement LED projects, enhance job creation and combat poverty. The study concludes that failure to implement an LED strategy country's high unemployment rate, poverty, low income, inequlaity, and low skills will significantly hinder economic growth.

Pengaruh Korupsi, Tingkat Pengangguran Terbuka Dan Bonus Demografi Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Di Indonesia Tahun 2004-2023

Economic growth is the process of increasing the economic welfare of a country within a certain period of time. Therefore, economic growth is important in assessing the success of a country in achieving its economic development. This study aims to analyze the effect of corruption, open unemployment rate and demographic bonus on economic growth in Indonesia in the short and long term. This research uses a quantitative type with a Vector Error Correction Model model. The type of data collected is secondary data sourced from the Transparency International website and the Central Bureau of Statistics. The results of the discussion of this study indicate that in the short term corruption and demographic bonus affect economic growth while the open unemployment rate has no effect on economic growth. In the long run corruption, open unemployment rate and demographic bonus affect economic growth

Innovative Entrepreneurship and Sustainability: A Bibliometric Analysis in Emerging Countries

Innovative entrepreneurship has increasingly been acknowledged as one of the most vital drivers of economic development, job creation at high value, wealth creation, and business growth. This study analyzes the current status and evolution of research on innovative entrepreneurship and sustainability in the context of emerging economies, based on a bibliometric analysis of 132 articles indexed in the Web of Science database. The search was guided by relevant keywords, such as “innovative entrepreneurship*” and “sustainab*”. Systemic barriers limit the scalability of innovative ventures, especially in developing countries. Frugal and green innovations, digital technologies, and rural enterprises show promise but face challenges like resource constraints, ethical concerns, and policy gaps. Collaborative, equity-focused approaches are essential to ensure entrepreneurship drives sustainable and inclusive development. Further studies should expand the data source, increase the pool of articles, and develop cross-country comparisons to enhance global understanding. This may lead to a better understanding of innovative entrepreneurship and sustainability that can be used to create actionable strategies for development in various economic contexts.