Oil Exports Research Articles

Are high-income and innovative nations resilient to the Russia-Ukraine war?

Using an event study analysis on daily closing prices of 83 stock market indices from February 10, 2021 to March 14, 2022, we find that the Russia-Ukraine war negatively impacts stock returns, affecting the high-income nations the most. However, the impact varies from country to country, with some experiencing significant positive or negative abnormal returns during different event windows. Cross-sectional results indicate that the income group of nations, innovation index, net-oil exports, trade-to-GDP ratio, military expenditure, inflation, past returns, and volatility significantly impact the cumulative abnormal returns during different event windows. While countries with a higher innovation index, higher net oil exports, higher military expenditure and lower trade-to-GDP ratios experience positive returns, high-income countries experience significant negative returns. Concomitantly, higher past returns and volatility predict abnormal returns during the war.

Revealing the evolution of global energy trade patterns amidst the COVID-19 epicenter storm

As the driving force of modern economic development, the evolution of the global energy patterns during major emergencies deserves attention. This study aims to uncover changes in global energy patterns during the COVID-19 epicenter storm. The results reveal concentrated energy trade volume in a few flows, with high-income countries holding greater influence. Amid the epicenter storm, there was a contraction in global energy trade volume, and trading patterns underwent significant shifts: (1) the global natural gas trading center shifted from the Middle East to western Africa initially, then to the United States and Russia; (2) Brazil, a crucial crude oil exporter, saw a weakened position in global crude oil exports; and (3) in the coal trading network, Australia and Russia maintained their position as trading centers throughout the storm. Swift policy adaptation is crucial for resilience and stability amid evolving global energy patterns.

Disturbing Effects of Global Oil Price Changes: Case of Azerbaijan

General topic in this paper is the role of oil industry in global economy and the result of changing oil prices on economic variables in Azerbaijan. The major aim is to analyze the effects of crude oil price changes on Azerbaijan economy in order to measure how changes in oil prices affect its basic economic variables. At the beginning, a general outlook on oil industry will be given and the main oil exporting economies will be analized. However, main focus will be on the structure of Azerbaijan’s economy and it will examine the example of Azerbaijan as a transition economy where oil and gas production and exports have steadily increased from the mid ‘90s. Many critical oil and gas extraction projects have been implemented; while the oil and gas sector's dominance in the economy poses a number of threats to the balanced development of the country's economy. It will show how the economy of Azerbaijan was affected after the oil crisis, such as other developing countries that mainly depending on oil and petroleum products. For this purpose, VEC Model has been applied, consdering Azerbaijan Statistic Data and analized the effects of oil price fluctuations on its economic variables parallel with the oil industry. The main findings indicate that Azerbaijan's economy is strongly dependent on resource exports, which produce high growth rates when commodity prices are favorable, but end up with lower macroeconomic performance when global oil prices fall. It is clear that the main income of Azerbaijan comes from oil and oil products, so the export of oil will have a high impact on the saving level of the population. At the time of high revenues come from export and the low exchange rate of the foreign currency in Azerbaijan has also led to the low cost of imported goods. As well demonstrated in the research, Azerbaijan economy has been widely exposed to major crude oil price distortions. It can be said that in order to avoid increasing overdependence on oil earnings, diversifying the economy should be a top priority.

Impact of Climate Change on The Export of Palm Oil, Coffee Beans, and Cocoa Beans

Impact of Climate Change on The Export of Palm Oil, Coffee Beans, and Cocoa Beans

From Wild Palm to Plantation System: A Trajectory of Colonial Policies on Palm Oil Production in Annang, Nigeria, 1900-1960

This paper examines colonial economic policies and the oil palm production in Annang, of Calabar Province of Nigeria from 1901-1960. Before the establishment of colonial rule, the people of Annang were engaged in the production of wild oil palm for domestic use. The colonial period witnessed the introduction of plantation system for the cultivation oil palm trees and production of palm oil for export. Annang produced large quantities of palm oil and thus contributed greatly to colonial economy. In spite this, the contribution of Annang to colonial economy has over the years been treated as as an appendage to the Ibibio colonial historical experiences. The neglect is what this article attempts to correct. Oil palm tree, has a long history in Annang, especially as most its byproducts served both domestic and commercial needs of the people. This article examines Annang unique experiences during colonial period in the light of the fast-developing interest in micro studies in Nigerian historiography. It therefore focuses on the colonial policies on palm oil production, especially the various measures formulated and implemented in Annang from the inception of British colonial rule in Annang in 1901 to 1960 when Nigeria attained independence. It adopts the historical method, relying extensively on primary sources obtained from oral interviews and archival sources to interrogate palm oil production in Annang during the period under consideration. Keywords: Oil palm Trees, Palm Oil, Plantation System, and Colonial Policies.

Mechanisms of oil pricing through SOMO and its impact on Iraqi oil exports

Mechanisms of oil pricing through SOMO and its impact on Iraqi oil exports

Evaluation of Mechanisms’ Effectiveness of State Regulation of Innovative Activity

Main problem: Rapidly changing trends in development of economies of countries require a rational approach to state regulation of innovative activity and investments directed to organization of real sector of the economy. At the same time, for analysis of modern state policy in the system of innovative development, it is necessary to assess the effectiveness of state regulation mechanisms of innovative activity in the economy of the Republic of Kazakhstan. Purpose: to assess mechanisms of state regulation of innovative activity in the Republic of Kazakhstan in the global competitiveness system. Methods: synthesis, content analysis, accommodation, monographic method, factor analysis, economic and statistical research method. Results and their significance: The assessment of the mechanisms of state regulation of innovative activity in the Republic of Kazakhstan in the global competitiveness system allowed to fully assess effectiveness of mechanisms of state regulation of innovative activity in the economy. Examining the sub-indices of international rating of the World Economic Forum for 2021-2022 in relation to 2017-2018, the authors came to conclusion that in Kazakhstan today there is the decrease in all the sub-indices of rating and their factors (“basic requirements” and “business complexity”), with exception of “innovation” sub-index. This sub-index was significantly reduced due to a sharp deterioration in macroeconomic environment, which is directly related, according to the authors, to significant losses in oil export revenues. This, in turn, affected the deterioration of the state budget indicators. The article pays special attention to place and role of state regulation of innovative activity in the socio-economic policy of the country. Organizational and methodological problems in development and implementation of innovative policy in the Republic of Kazakhstan are researched in detail, which makes it necessary to solve them in order to achieve the effectiveness of innovative policy at the regional and national levels.

The Role of Innovation in Promoting Economic Diversification In Mena Oil-Exporting Countries: An Empirical Study

This paper casts light on the role innovation seems to play in accelerating economic diversification in 11 MENA oil-exporting countries over the period 1996-2019. More specifically, the novelty of this paper principally lies in detecting the rate of increase in the level of economic diversification if these countries’ rates of innovation will be on par with those of a country that has successfully diversified its export base, like Canada. The results gleaned from using the Arellano-Bond difference GMM estimator demonstrate that strengthening innovation can give a sturdy impetus to economic diversification in oil-rich MENA countries. More precisely, the GCC countries' level of innovation-driven economic diversification is likely to increase more rapidly than that of non-GCC countries. The findings also illustrate that MENA oil exporters’ economic diversification seems to be positively and significantly influenced by governance, human development, credit to the private sector, and economic freedom. Surprisingly, oil rents appear to genuinely frustrate these countries' efforts to diversify their economies. Furthermore, good governance and oil revenues can jointly speed up these countries’ economic diversification. More importantly, the results distinctly unearthed that MENA oil exporters’ economic diversification will increase by 1.77% if their innovation rates can catch up with those of Canada. By and large, encouraging innovation and technological development proved to be a truly giant step forward in these countries’ endeavors for economic diversification.

Iraq Crude Oil Exports, (January, February, March, April, May, June)/ 2022

List of TablesTable 1. Iraq Crude Oil Exports – January 2022Table 2. Iraq Crude Oil Exports – February 2022Table 3. Iraq Crude Oil Exports – March 2022Table 4. Iraq Crude Oil Exports – April 2022Table 5. Iraq Crude Oil Exports – May 2022Table 6. Iraq Crude Oil Exports – June 202

The agroforests of the east coast of Madagascar

This article explores the significance, challenges, and future prospects of Madagascar’s cash crops: vanilla, cloves, lychees, black pepper and cinnamon. Cultivated by small-scale farmers in biodiverse agroforestry plots, these cash crops have historical importance in Madagascar's export-oriented economy that has seen Madagascar become the world's leading producer of vanilla, the second largest exporter of cloves and essential clove oil, and the leading exporter of lychees to the European market. Despite contributing substantially to the country's exports, farmers remain vulnerable, as the markets for these products are controlled by global food industry giants and are subject to significant price fluctuations. Other factors that contribute towards farmer’s vulnerability include climate change, local security conditions, competition from other producing countries and the introduction of synthetic vanillin. Despite the volatilities, farmers’ income and food security remain tied to these cash crops. Diversification is recommended to ensure better resilience against volatile conditions, including diversification of crops, land management practices, and product uses. By adapting agroforests to integrate a variety of cash crops and food crops, farmers’ income and food security will be protected long-term. Further research on agro-biodiversity management is now needed to continue to mitigate market dynamics and environmental challenges.

Palm oil trade restrictiveness index and its impact on world palm oil exports

Palm oil trade restrictiveness index and its impact on world palm oil exports

الاقتصاد الريعي وأثره على القدرة التنافسية للصادرات السلعية في الاقتصاد العراقي للمدّة (2004-2021)

The issue of competitiveness occupies wide interest in international economies, especially with the developments represented by globalization and global economic integration, as well as policies of openness and market liberalization. Because the concept of competitiveness goes beyond the state’s ability to produce goods and services that compete in the world to the challenges that enable the state to produce goods and services and offer them in local and international markets. Thus, competitiveness as a concept is linked to export capabilities, the global trade climate, and the state’s ability to access global markets. The respiratory capabilities of any country are linked to the extent of production capabilities and the nature of goods and services that can be exported, and in the Iraqi economy, in which the oil sector dominates the largest proportion of its exports, and this growing proportion of oil exports affects the competitive capabilities of commodity exports significantly, meaning that the competitive capabilities of commodity exports in the Iraqi economy are dependent on Its development and increasing proportions in the oil sector and its export rates. Hence the topic of research came: the rentier economy and its impact on the competitiveness of commodity exports for the period (2004-2021) in the Iraqi economy

A Kingdom of Possibility

A Kingdom of Possibility

Energy Security Blind Spots of Gas, Oil, and Coal Exporters

The global narrative around domestic energy security is dominated by the paradigm of import-dependent countries, and as a result the interactions of energy export activities with domestic energy systems are not generally considered. In this paper, we apply a systems approach to establish two potential blind spots in evaluating the whole-of-system energy security of energy resource exporters (actual primary energy self-sufficiency and export exposure of the domestic energy system), and examine some case studies, primarily in the Australian context, to validate the existence of these blind spots. The commencement of LNG exports from the state of Queensland is examined in detail. Furthermore, we propose two novel quantitative indicators to mitigate the blind spots established. First, a revised method is proposed to calculate energy self-sufficiency, showing for the exporters studied a less secure position than shown by the traditional method. Second, an indicator is proposed to quantify the extent of exposure of the domestic energy system to international markets through export linkages, which we have applied to Australia’s domestic energy system, showing the extent of the increase in international exposure since LNG exports from Queensland commenced in 2015–2016. Conclusions of this paper include the realization that domestic energy security for energy exporters, such as Australia and the other countries examined, is more complex and, in the cases examined, less secure than importer-oriented energy security frameworks have previously recognized. A further conclusion is established that the decoupling of energy resource exports from the domestic energy system through transition to a zero-carbon energy system based on domestic renewable energy sources can be an effective means of improving Australia’s energy security.

Impact of Oil and Gas vs. Non-Oil and Gas Exports on Provincial Economic Growth: A Panel Data Analysis

Economic growth in Aceh Province, Indonesia, is expected to fluctuate due to the unstable growth rates of both oil and gas and non-oil and gas exports. This study aims to investigate the impact of these exports on economic growth in Aceh Province. Utilizing secondary data from the Statistics of Aceh Province (BPS Aceh), the study employed the panel regression method, specifically the random effect model, analyzing data from 23 districts/cities in Aceh Province over the period 2011-2022. Estimation results indicate that oil and gas export growth have a negative effect, while non-oil and gas export growth exerts a positive effect on economic growth in Aceh Province, both of which show robust statistical significance. Based on these empirical findings, it is suggested that there should be cooperation between the government and investors in Aceh Province to maximize the processing of oil and gas commodities for export, as well as to improve the quality of non-oil and gas commodities exported so that, in the future, the demand for non-oil and gas exports can remain stable, fostering sustainable provincial economic growth.

APPLICATION OF THE NEURAL NETWORK AUTOREGRESSIVE (NNAR) METHOD FOR FORECASTING THE VALUE OF OIL AND GAS EXPORTS IN INDONESIA

Indonesia is one of the countries with the most diversity and abundant natural resources, consisting of many commodities, and has enormous trade potential with other countries The success of economic activity a country can be measured by the amount of economic growth that occurs in the country. A recession is when a country's economic condition is getting worse. Meanwhile, a recession in Indonesia is expected to occur in 2023. In a 2022 news issue written by the editorial team, tirto.id said that some experts say that if 2023 is a recession, the cause is due to a spike in inflation from the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. It is known that the value of oil and gas exports affects the Indonesian economy. Any increase in the value of oil and gas exports will be followed by an increase in economic growth, and vice versa. However, over time, the value of oil and gas exports has decreased every year. Therefore, forecasting the value of oil and gas exports is needed so that the country's economic sector development strategy can be on target. In addition, oil and gas export forecasting is also needed to determine the distribution of goods exports that must be carried out. In this study, we forecast the value of oil and gas exports using the neural network autoregressive (NNAR) method. The choice of this method is made because there is no assumption of normality of the residuals and white noise like in autoregressive models. From the NNAR method, the best model results are obtained, namely NNAR (2,3) with a MAPE value of 11.75640%, which means that this model has very good forecasting performance.

Does governance matter? Comparing the determinants of Chinese and Western trade with Africa

AbstractIn recent decades, China has risen to prominence in the global economy with breakneck speed. Many have hypothesised that Chinese economic actors undermine the global drive to promote good governance in developing countries, and in Africa in particular, by disproportionately engaging economically with countries that suffer from poor governance outcomes. Using bilateral trade data, this paper explicitly compares how different aspects of African countries' governance levels impact their trade patterns with China and the West. It finds that African countries with better corruption controls and improved democratic development levels export more to the Western countries sampled, though the opposite is true with regard to their exports to China. Interestingly, democratic development is associated with greater imports from both the West and China, but the opposite holds with regard to respect for human rights. Finally, political stability has no significant impact on African trade—with either the West or China. However, when oil exporters are excluded from the sample, the relationship between political stability and African exports strengthens dramatically, which suggests that both Western and Chinese importers are willing to tolerate political instability to secure oil.

AREAL AND PRODUCTION OF PALM OIL TREES

Palm oil is one of the plantation products that has a significant impact on the Indonesian economy. Indonesia, being one of the major palm oil exporters in the world, has successfully reduced poverty and unemployment rates by expanding oil palm plantation areas. This research aims to explore the relationship between the extent of oil palm plantation land and the annual production of palm oil in Paser Regency. The research method employed for this study is quantitative, involving the collection of data on the amount of palm oil plantation land from 2018 to 2022, along with the annual palm oil production figures in Paser Regency. The gathered data will be examined using correlation analysis, utilizing IBM SPSS 25 as the tool for conducting the correlation analysis. The researcher found that there is no significant correlation between the extent of oil palm plantation land and annual palm oil production. Additionally, the researcher discovered other variables that correlate with the annual volume of palm oil production, which were not considered in this study. The variables identified by the researcher as influencing production volume after conducting this study include soil conditions, fertilizers, seedlings, human resources, and the age of oil palm trees. This research provides insights to readers, stakeholders, and other researchers regarding factors correlated with the annual volume of palm oil production. These findings can serve as a solid foundation for business decision-making and as reference material for future research.

Asymmetric dynamic spillover and time-frequency connectedness in the oil-stock nexus under COVID-19 shock: Evidence from African oil importers and exporters

Amid the profound disruptions triggered by COVID-19 in financial markets, this paper investigates changes in the interconnectedness behavior in terms of mean and volatility contagion between crude oil and stock markets in African oil importers and exporters. To this aim, we employ asymmetric BEKK-Copula-GARCH and Wavelet Coherence methods, and the analyses are evaluated before and during COVID-19. The findings indicate that the interdependence between crude oil and African stock returns is relatively weak before COVID-19, but the strength is amplified during the pandemic. Significant volatility spillover from crude oil to stock markets is exhibited in South Africa, Tunisia, and Tanzania during COVID-19. However, the results are insignificant in all the selected African countries before the pandemic. Furthermore, evidence of asymmetric volatility transmission is uncovered in South Africa and Tunisia during COVID-19. The findings also reveal that the connectedness between crude oil and African stocks is time and frequency dependent, with the strong linkage observed in the mid-term and long-term at specific time points. Overall, this study holds vital contributions as it unveils new insights into how COVID-19 reshaped the traditional behavior regarding the oil-stock nexus in Africa, thus informing policy responses and investment strategies at times of extreme events.

‘Greening’ an Oil Exporting Country: A Hydrogen, Wind and Gas Turbine Case Study

In the quest for achieving decarbonisation, it is essential for different sectors of the economy to collaborate and invest significantly. This study presents an innovative approach that merges technological insights with philosophical considerations at a national scale, with the intention of shaping the national policy and practice. The aim of this research is to assist in formulating decarbonisation strategies for intricate economies. Libya, a major oil exporter that can diversify its energy revenue sources, is used as the case study. However, the principles can be applied to develop decarbonisation strategies across the globe. The decarbonisation framework evaluated in this study encompasses wind-based renewable electricity, hydrogen, and gas turbine combined cycles. A comprehensive set of both official and unofficial national data was assembled, integrated, and analysed to conduct this study. The developed analytical model considers a variety of factors, including consumption in different sectors, geographical data, weather patterns, wind potential, and consumption trends, amongst others. When gaps and inconsistencies were encountered, reasonable assumptions and projections were used to bridge them. This model is seen as a valuable foundation for developing replacement scenarios that can realistically guide production and user engagement towards decarbonisation. The aim of this model is to maintain the advantages of the current energy consumption level, assuming a 2% growth rate, and to assess changes in energy consumption in a fully green economy. While some level of speculation is present in the results, important qualitative and quantitative insights emerge, with the key takeaway being the use of hydrogen and the anticipated considerable increase in electricity demand. Two scenarios were evaluated: achieving energy self-sufficiency and replacing current oil exports with hydrogen exports on an energy content basis. This study offers, for the first time, a quantitative perspective on the wind-based infrastructure needs resulting from the evaluation of the two scenarios. In the first scenario, energy requirements were based on replacing fossil fuels with renewable sources. In contrast, the second scenario included maintaining energy exports at levels like the past, substituting oil with hydrogen. The findings clearly demonstrate that this transition will demand great changes and substantial investments. The primary requirements identified are 20,529 or 34,199 km2 of land for wind turbine installations (for self-sufficiency and exports), and 44 single-shaft 600 MW combined-cycle hydrogen-fired gas turbines. This foundational analysis represents the commencement of the research, investment, and political agenda regarding the journey to achieving decarbonisation for a country.