Oil Exports Research Articles

A Pan-Asian Energy Transition? The New Rationale for Decarbonization Policies in the World’s Largest Energy Exporting Countries: A Case Study of Qatar and Other GCC Countries

Climate change has become a major agenda item in international relations and in national energy policy-making circles around the world. This review studies the surprising evolution of the energy policy, and more particularly the energy transition, currently happening in the Arabian Gulf region, which features some of the world’s largest exporters of oil and gas. Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and other neighboring energy exporters plan to export blue and green hydrogen across Asia as well as towards Europe in the years and decades to come. Although poorly known and understood abroad, this recent strategy does not threaten the current exports of oil and gas (still needed for a few decades) but prepares the evolution of their national energy industries toward the future decarbonized energy demand of their main customers in East and South Asia, and beyond. The world’s largest exporter of Liquefied Natural Gas, Qatar, has established industrial policies and projects to upscale CCUS, which can enable blue hydrogen production, as well as natural carbon sinks domestically via afforestation projects.

The Impact of Indonesian Crude Oil Demand Prices on the Indonesian Biodiesel Industry

Biodiesel is one of Indonesia's potential export commodities as there is a production surplus that occurs every year from 2006 to 2020. The study used the 2SLS method with a validation and simultaneous equation model. Data processing using SAS/ETS version 9.4. The purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of Indonesia's crude oil demand price on Indonesia's biodiesel industry. The findings indicate that the demand for Indonesian biodiesel is positively impacted by a rise in the global real price of crude oil by 0.11%. This increase is due to both the biodiesel industry's and the local market's need for Indonesian palm oil. The local price of Indonesian biodiesel would rise by 0.49% due to the increase in demand for the fuel. The amount of biodiesel produced in Indonesia will increase by 0.87%, this increase in production is due to increasing domestic demand for Indonesian palm oil, and the volume of biodiesel exported to destination countries will increase by 0.01%. Exports of palm oil may be more impacted by the policy of raising the actual world price of crude oil. This implies that the program may potentially result in a rise in raw material exports. On the other hand, the biodiesel industry and other industries also see a spike in palm oil as a result of the strategy of raising the real world price of crude oil.

Pengaruh Produksi Kelapa Sawit, Harga Minyak Kelapa Sawit Dunia, dan Emisi Karbon terhadap Volume Ekspor Minyak Kelapa Sawit Indonesia

Indonesia is the largest producer and exporter of palm oil in the world. Unfortunately, Indonesian palm oil exports are influenced by various factors, including environmental issues, which ultimately disrupt export benefits. This research aims to analyze the influence of production, world prices, and carbon emissions on the volume of Indonesian palm oil exports. The analytical method used is Two Stage Least Square (2SLS) with simultaneous supply and demand equations for Indonesian palm oil export volumes from 1991-2021. The research results show that the increase in palm oil plantation areas in Indonesia has positively contributed to the increase in world palm oil prices as demand also increases. Furthermore, the increase in world palm oil prices has encouraged Indonesia's exports to world markets. The increase in Indonesian palm oil production has encouraged an increased volume of exports to the world market. However, market appreciation for environmentally friendly palm oil has not contributed positively to the price and increase in palm oil export volume.

Economic growth in OPEC nations: The role of renewable energy consumption, CO2 emissions, and foreign direct investment

Background: The nations that make up OPEC (the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) have traditionally depended on gas and oil export earnings. However, there is a significant global shift towards renewable energy in an effort to reduce the impact of climate change. This research aims to analyze the effect of Renewable Energy Consumption, CO2 Emissions, and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) on the Economic Growth in OPEC Nations partially and simultaneously. Methods: In this research, panel data regression analysis techniques are combined with quantitative research approaches. Secondary data from the World Development Indicators (WDI) for the years 2001–2020 were used in this research. Finding: This research showed that the Renewable Energy Consumption and CO2 Emissions variables do not affect economic growth in OPEC countries. Meanwhile, the foreign direct investment variable has a positive and significant effect on economic growth in OPEC countries. Conclusion: OPEC countries need to diversify their economies and reduce their dependence on oil as there is a global shift towards cleaner energy. Novelty/Originality of this article: This study analyzes the impact of Renewable Energy Consumption, CO2 Emissions, and Foreign Direct Investment on Economic Growth in OPEC countries using panel data regression analysis. The study's findings show that only Foreign Direct Investment positively and significantly impacts economic growth.

PREDICTION OF CRUDE OIL PRICES IN INDONESIA USING FOURIER SERIES ESTIMATOR AND ARIMA METHOD

Crude oil is one of the non-renewable natural resources that is crucial for countries around the world in driving economic development. However, the availability of crude oil is decreasing over time. The high demand for crude oil results in scarcity which causes price fluctuations. Low oil prices can reduce state revenues, disrupt development programs, and even trigger budget deficits. On the other hand, an increase in crude oil prices can make a positive contribution to state revenues. Crude oil exports become more profitable, which can increase state revenue through royalties and taxes levied on the oil and gas sector. This additional revenue can be used to support infrastructure development, social programs, and investment in key sectors of the economy. High oil prices can also harm the economy. With the many impacts that can be caused by crude oil prices, the government must be able to anticipate and prepare for it. The data used in this study are data on crude oil prices in Indonesia for monthly periods from January 2018 to October 2023 sourced from the official website of the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) of the Republic of Indonesia. The researcher tried to compare two analysis methods, namely the Fourier series and the ARIMA estimator. The results of this study show that the best method in predicting crude oil prices in Indonesia is the Fourier series estimator with Cos-Sin function which produces RMSE and MAPE values of 7.93 and 8.4%. The prediction results can be used as a reference for the government to anticipate and make programs or policies that are more focused and targeted toward the impacts that can be caused by changes in crude oil prices.

THE EFFECTS OF PRICE AND VOLATILITY INDICES OF STRATEGIC COMMODITIES ON STOCK MARKETS: A STUDY ON BRICS ECONOMIES

The effect of gold, oil prices, which are strategic commodities, and gold, oil volatility indices on the BRICS stock exchanges is investigated in this paper. The relationship between the variables is analysed for the short and long-run using the NARDL method. Gold prices have a negative effect on stock markets except Brazil and Russia, in the short and long-run. Changes in oil prices have a negative effect on stock prices in South Africa, which imported oil, and a positive effect in net oil exporters Brazil and Russia, in the short and long-run. It is concluded that positive and negative shocks of strategic commodity volatilities have an asymmetric effect on the stock exchanges of emerging countries in the short and long-run.

Research on interregional oil cooperation-sanctions with evolutionary game

PurposeThe game strategies differ when different regions participate in the oil game. Under what circumstances will different participants choose cooperation or sanction strategies? This is the core issue of this paper.Design/methodology/approachRegarding the current and future game behavior between different regions in the oil trade, this paper constructs an evolutionary game model between two regions to explore the possibility of sanctions strategies between the two sides in different situations.FindingsThe research finds: (1) When the benefits of in-depth cooperation between the two regions are greater, both sides tend to adopt cooperative strategies. (2) When the trade conflict losses between the two regions are smaller, both sides adopt sanctions strategies. (3) When a strong region trades with a weak region, if the former adopts a sanctions strategy, the net profits are greater than the benefits of in-depth cooperation between the two regions. If the latter adopts a sanctions strategy, the net profits are less than the trade conflict losses between the two regions. There will be the strong region adopting a sanctions strategy and the weak region adopting a non-sanctions strategy. At this time, the latter should reasonably balance the immediate and future interests and give up some current interests in exchange for in-depth cooperation between the two regions. Otherwise, it will fall into the situation of unilateral sanctions by the strong against the weak.Originality/valueThere is no paper in the existing literature that uses the evolutionary game method to analyze the oil game problem between the two regions. This paper constructs a two-party evolutionary game model composed of crude oil importers and crude oil exporters and, based on this, analyzes the evolutionary stability between the two regions under sanctions and cooperation strategies, which enriches the energy research field.

The role of Stakeholder Participation in Oman’s Tourism Planning System

ABSTRACT Oman is a country highly reliant on oil exports that wishes to expand tourism (among other industries) as a diversification policy. This paper assesses whether stakeholder participation (SP) in tourism planning decision-making would enhance or inhibit the country’s strategy of sustainable tourism development. Findings from 45 interviews and six focus groups with tourism stakeholders show that the current level of SP in tourism planning is limited; most stakeholders are keen to increase it; and the benefits of doing so include safeguarding Oman’s traditional environmental and cultural heritage. The paper contributes to the literature by demonstrating how the principle of SP is congruent with Oman’s political and cultural identity, and how, by supporting community-based tourism, SP can serve as an important factor in the country’s sustainable tourism development strategy.

Does Nigeria’s underdeveloped financial sector harm non-crude oil export trade? Empirical evidence from linear and non-linear models

The purpose of this study is to determine the effect of financial sector development on Nigeria’s non-crude oil export trade. For this reason, we employ a battery of econometric models and tools, including the Autoregressive Distributed Lag model and the sequentially determined threshold model. The study found that financial sector development and export of non-crude oil merchandise are unrelated in the long term, which challenges theoretical view that financial sector development and trade are linked at any time. The study further showed that, in the short term, the country's level of financial sector development, though shallow and seeming underdeveloped, is able to support exports of non-crude oil products. This finding challenges theoretical view that lower levels of financial sector development could hinder non-crude oil export trade flows. The study, however, found a threshold effect showing a minimum level of financial sector development that promotes non-crude oil export trade, which indicates that the relationship between financial sector development and non-crude oil export is non-linear, which contradicts the theoretical view. The study recommends that Nigerian policymakers and the government adhere strictly to the minimum level of financial sector development; otherwise, non-crude oil export trade may worsen.

Trends in Area, Production and Productivity of Castor in Telangana

Aims: To analyse the trends in area, production and productivity of castor in Telangana and major erstwhile districts of Telangana. The main purpose of the study is to understand the growth rate of castor in a region of Telangana, as India is the largest exporter of castor oil, which has multiple industrial applications. Methodology: The secondary data of the area, production and productivity of castor from 2001-02 to 2022-23 were collected from the Directorate of Economics and Statistics. The Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) was used to analyse the time-series data of castor. CAGR was calculated for 3 periods -Period I (2001-02 to 2011-12), Period II (2012-13 to 2022-23), Overall Period (2001-23). Results: The results showed a decreasing trend in both castor area and production. But castor productivity observed a positive growth rate in Telangana and the major erstwhile castor-growing districts like Mahbubnagar and Medak. However, few districts like Rangareddy, Nalgonda, and Warangal showed negative trends in productivity during Period I. The study highlighted a decline in the castor area due to the incidence of diseases like Botrytis, shifting to other crops such as cotton and climate variability. Conclusion: The study indicated that the decline in the castor area is a major concern and this study will be useful in agricultural policy making to take appropriate actions to reverse the declining trends of castor cultivation in Telangana.

Bootstrap-after-bootstrap for autoregressive models: an application to Indonesian value of export oil and gas

This research focuses on predicting the value of oil and gas exports in Indonesia, employing a hybrid methodology that combines autoregressive models and a bootstrap approach. Specifically, this research applies the bootstrap-after-bootstrap approach to showcase its effectiveness in improving the accuracy of parameter estimates. Analysis results indicate that the autoregressive model with an order of p=2 minimizes the AIC, BIC, and HQ values, yielding AIC=9.833775, BIC=10.03125, and HQ=9.883440, respectively. Consequently, the AR(2) model emerges as the optimal choice for predicting Indonesia's export value of oil and gas. This research utilizes varying numbers of bootstrap replications (B=100, 250, 500, 1000, and 10000) to assess the impact on prediction intervals. Prediction intervals exhibit less smoothness for B=100 and B=250, whereas B=500 and B=1000 result in a considerably smoother pattern. The highest level of smoothness is achieved for B=10000. The findings underscore that bootstrap-after-bootstrap prediction intervals provide the most accurate and conservative assessment of future uncertainty. Moreover, predictive analysis for the upcoming five periods indicates a projected decline in the export value of oil and gas in Indonesia. Overall, this research demonstrates the efficacy of the bootstrap-after-bootstrap approach in enhancing the precision of predictions and providing robust insights into future uncertainties surrounding Indonesia's oil and gas export market.

Oil exporters and the challenges ahead: the role of NOCs in energy transitions

Abstract While constructing pathways to achieving energy transitions is challenging to all global community members, this challenge is even greater for oil-exporting countries. Oil-exporting countries and their national oil companies (NOCs) are key players in the energy transitions. These actors’ existing capacities (financial, technical, human) must be leveraged to accelerate decarbonization processes that are scaled and globally deployed. Energy transition roadmaps must embrace all relevant actors, including oil companies, as stakeholders that can significantly contribute to the acceleration of energy transitions across the globe. This situation must be reflected in outlooks and assessments of energy transitions. This article studies the regulatory conditions and interventions that have made the evolution of several NOCs possible as relevant actors in the 21st-century landscape, considering their activities in traditional energy sources, decarbonization solutions, and new energy sources. These NOCs vary with some having greater flexibility in shaping policies while others needing to comply with regulatory standards. All NOCs in this study, ADNOC, ARAMCO, and the NNPCL were entrusted with a degree of autonomy in addressing climate change, yet the larger margin of discretion ADNOC and ARAMCO corporations enjoyed has allowed them to excel in shaping and implementing these policies. The focus of this paper is on the role of soft law in this change, particularly ESG standards, as leading energy transition governance tools, which introduce accountability and environmental principles that guide the activity of these corporate actors beyond bear minimum requirements in laws and regulations.

PROSPECTS OF CENTRAL ASIAN MARKETS FOR RUSSIAN OIL COMPANIES

This article is devoted to the current state of the oil sector in the Central Asian countries and an assessment of the prospects of their markets for expanding the presence of Russian companies. The author highlights the main factors that determine the current situation in the oil producing and refining industries in the region: the overall availability of energy resources in general and crude oil in particular, property rights to oil producing and refining enterprises and operating oil pipelines, as well as international agreements in this area concluded over the past five years. The article substantiates the conclusion that today the potential of the region as a transport and logistics corridor and a center for oil production and refining remains largely untapped. In this regard, for Russian companies, the greatest interest lies in measures to establish control over pipelines from countries focused on the export of oil and oil products (Kazakhstan and, to a lesser extent, Turkmenistan) and to strengthen the presence in the domestic markets of those countries that focus on importing energy resources (Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan) by creating their own transport and refinement infrastructure.

THE ENERGY FACTOR IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SAUDI ARABIA’S FOREIGN POLICY AT THE PRESENT STAGE

The article is devoted to the analysis of the energy factor in the formation and development of the modern foreign policy of Saudi Arabia. For decades, the foreign policy, as well as the entire economic system, of the kingdom has been directly dependent on the export of petroleum products and crude oil. Until the beginning of the 2000s western states were the main importers of Saudi energy resources, which directly affected Riyadh’s foreign policy orientation and often had a negative impact on the implementation of national interests and strategic objectives of state development. However, at the present stage, there is a process of formation of a multi-vector foreign policy of Saudi Arabia due to the intensification of trade and economic relations with non-Western states. When analyzing this aspect, the authors paid special attention to the main indicators of diversification of Riyadh’s leading partners, the results of the negotiation process on the kingdom’s accession to BRICS and the development of cooperation within the expanded OPEC format – OPEC+.

People centric governance model for smart cities development: A systematic review, thematic analysis, and findings

In the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region, comprising Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and Oman, advanced urban planning and cutting-edge projects signify a dedication to modernity and prosperity. These nations, renowned for substantial energy reserves, are crucial players in the global energy landscape, contributing 45% of proven oil reserves, 25% of oil exports, and 18% of proven natural gas reserves. Significant investments in planned cities showcase the GCC region’s commitment to renewable energy with megaprojects serving as key promoters of a nationalist vision for modernization and sustainability. Criticism has been directed at ambitious designs and sustainability rhetoric, as seen in projects like Masdar City, originally envisioned as carbon-neutral but encountering challenges in realization.The implementation of Smart Cities in Oman is in its early stages, marked by a lack of comprehensive industry-level studies and an absence of an established frameworkbased approach. Limited industry-level studies address citizen-centric Smart governance thereby impacting Quality of Life. Current research emphasizes technology and innovation rather than the cultural sentiments of the local community resulting in gaps in people-centric approach. Moreover, there’s no empirical research to validate the influence of People on Public-Private Partnership enterprises in Smart City development, necessitating the development of a conceptual framework or model to highlight the influence of people on Smart Cities. This deficiency is resulting in a stagnation of innovation and an insufficient quality of life. The goal is to measure the effectiveness of the participatory governance model in improving the quality of life for residents within the smart city. By addressing the identified deficiencies through the application of participatory governance, the research aims to pave the way for a more effective and people-centric approach to smart city development, ultimately fostering innovation, enhancing the quality of life, and promoting sustainable and inclusive outcomes.

Alternative Exchange Rate Systems for Oil-Exporting Countries: Frankel’s Currency-Plus-Commodity Basket Proposal versus the Current System

Choosing an appropriate exchange rate regime is crucial for economic policy, particularly for developing countries seeking to establish robust macroeconomic frameworks to mitigate external shocks. However, such nations, including those reliant on oil and natural gas exports, often face challenges in selecting suitable regimes, exacerbated by a lack of traditional advice. The debate around this issue intensified in the aftermath of the 2014 oil price decline. In response, Jeffrey Frankel proposed the currency-plus-commodity basket (CCB) arrangement in 2017, blending the benefits of floating and pegging. This study applies the CCB system to Algeria, aiming to evaluate its impact compared to the current managed floating regime from 2001 to 2021, on indicators of internal (inflation rates) and external (change in foreign exchange reserves) balance using monthly data. Employing wavelet analysis and robustness tests, specifically quantile-on-quantile regression (QQR), the findings suggest that the CCB regime surpasses managed floating in maintaining monetary stability and achieving internal and external balance. Moreover, it provides greater flexibility and stimulates the domestic economy through its ability to stabilize terms of trade via active countercyclical monetary policy. Nonetheless, further discussion, adjustment, experimentation, and development of the proposed regime are warranted.

UPDATED MATHEMATICAL MODEL OF THE TRUNK PIPELINE SECTION WITH LOOPING IN CASE OF LEAKAGE

Pipeline transport is the main method of moving volumes of oil and oil products, as it has several advantages, for example, quality safety and high throughput. At the same time, it also has some disadvantages, which can include the difficulty of increasing throughput without high capital investments and possible leaks and unauthorized tie-ins into pipelines, which are sometimes difficult to identify. Looping is one of the main ways to increase the throughput of the existing pipeline system, when the need to increase the volume of oil and oil products supplies requires the construction of several parallel pipelines — looping. At the same time, the basic mathematical model for calculating the section of the trunk oil pipeline with looping does not fully cover all the physical processes associated with the distribution of flows in the parallel section, which arise due to turbulences in the connection nodes, as well as head loss along the length of the jumpers. Taking into account the resulting flow redistributions, it becomes difficult to detect a potential leak, since any of the detection methods can not solve the problem with high accuracy with determining the leak coordinate with an unknown distribution of fluid flow rates in a parallel section. As part of the study, an updated mathematical model of the oil export pipeline section with looping was developed, which took into account the presence of a potential leak in the parallel section. Mathematical modeling was carried out on the basis of the assumption of a known coordinate, the effect of leakage on the redistribution of flows in a parallel section was estimated. To assess the impact of the leak, various coordinates and volumetric flow rates were set, based on the calculation results, graphs of the flow rate in looping versus its length and internal diameter were plotted. The study is the initial phase of developing a hydraulic location leak detection system for the oil export pipeline section with looping. The need to refine the mathematical model for determining the flow rate in the parallel section is an urgent and necessary task, the solution of which will allow identifying potential leaks with reliable accuracy.

Change of President in Iran could help loosen sanctions, maintain oil exports

Change of President in Iran could help loosen sanctions, maintain oil exports

Role of China in Saudi-Iran Normalization: The Case of Soft Power

Saudi Arabia is considered the head of the Muslim Ummah due to its affiliations with the two most holy places of the Muslim world. The country in the Middle East is also widely popular due to its oil reserves and its active role in world politics. Recently, the state developed some diplomatic tensions with another Muslim state i.e. Islamic Republic of Iran. Several states have played a crucial role in normalizing the relations and conflict resolution including Pakistan, Iraq, China, etc. This paper highlights the role of China in normalizing the turmoil using soft power and providing a good office. China besides establishing regional stability and focusing on its Foreign Policy and its economic interests with the major oil exporters. Also, the global projects of China, including BRI, and CPEC could be influenced by the global tensions it is therefore crucial for China to maintain its own national interests.

Legal Disputes between Iraq and Turkey over the KRG’s Oil Fields and the Implications of the ICC Court’s Ruling on Them

This paper aims to analyze the dispute that arose between the KRG and Iraq on the one hand, and between Iraq and Turkey on the other, over the export of the KRG's crude oil via the Turkish Ceyhan terminal. Through a comprehensive evaluation of the dispute's origins, this study critically examines the relevant constitutional texts and the factors that led to this disagreement developing into an international conflict between Turkey and Iraq. The paper also examines the repercussions of the International Chamber of Commerce Arbitration Court ruling (ICC Court’s ruling) in Paris on the issue. A qualitative research methodology was carefully used, including an analysis of the implications of the ICC Court's decision, to achieve the study's main goal. Ultimately, in contrast to some observers who viewed the repercussions ICC Court's ruling as a major victory for the Iraqi federal government. This article posits that Iraq's victory is unthinkable due to the more complex tripartite relationship between the parties to the dispute, as well as several bilaterally complex issues between Turkey and Iraq. Furthermore, it is predicted that these repercussions will endanger Iraq if this dispute is not settled amicably.