Offensive Realism Research Articles

The Turkish Art of Offensive-Balancing from the Perspective of Neorealism

In his foreign policy, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has reconsidered commitments to the United States and NATO allies that limit his political ambitions. Turkey’s military power is actively involved in Syria, Iraq, Libya, the Eastern Mediterranean, and the South Caucasus in an attempt to alter the existing regional orders. Offensive realism, as a branch of neorealism, asserts that states are willing to use force to advance their own interests, and that their survival in the international system requires a maximization of power. Defensive neorealism holds that aggressive expansion clashes with the interests of other states and their desire to ensure their own security. According to the balance of power theory, the expansion and maximization of power reduces the security of an offensive state by countering a coalition of balancing states. At the same time, Turkish foreign policy strongly supports the formation of an Islamist, neo-patrimonialist, populist, and security-obsessed ruling bloc representing the resentment of Turkish society of the historical injustices committed by the West. This article attempts to determine Erdoğan’s strategy, examines it from the standpoint of the offensive/defensive approach of neorealism, and evaluates its effectiveness. Erdoğan has created a multi-polar balancing structure of foreign relations in which Turkish rivals restrain each other. This structure is similar to a pentahedron with Turkey in the center and its main rivals–partners arrayed around it at each point. Ankara, by shifting closer to one or another rival–partner, can effectively bargain with others using threats.

Currency Dominance and National Power in the Era of Distributed Ledger Technology and Cryptocurrency

Currency dominance has been the symbol of national power, influence, and dominance. After the Second World War, the Dollar has maintained its unrivaled influence as a currency reserve by central banks and as a global transaction currency. Recently, cryptocurrency and the distributed ledger system were seen as a challenge. However, due to the challenge it poses to the sovereignty of nation-states, central banks have resorted to developing the central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). China is the only major economy to have tested a CBDC, a symbol of its increasing economic power and innovation. Contrary to Mearsheimer’s theory of offensive realism, developments show that China can use its offensive economic capabilities to build a regional order through the belt and road initiative (BRI). With the recent release of its Central Bank Electronic Payment and the Blockchain-based Network System, China can seek to regionalize the use of its renminbi (RMB) and rival the power of the Dollar.

Turkey and Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) Relations: A Soft Power Approach towards Kurdish Question

Turkey has long regarded Kurds as a homogenous entity that could threaten its territorial integrity and national security. There is ‎animosity by the Turkish government towards the Kurds. ‎This article attempts to analyze why there has been a paradigm shift and enhancement in Turkey-KRG relations, especially during AKP tenure, while analyzing the extent to which the ‎effectiveness of the Turkey-KRG relationship can help Turkey resolve its Kurdish ‎issue in peaceful ways. This research uses offensive realism as an analytical tool while deploying qualitative methods through ‎explanatory and descriptive approaches in answering the problems raised. The ‎study shows that the paradigm shift and the enhancement in Turkey-KRG relations can occur because Turkey seeks to pursue its goal, ‎being a regional hegemon. In this way, Turkey can guarantee its survival, increase ‎welfare, and preserve its political doctrine. However, the enhancement of Turkey-‎KRG relations shows less significant effectiveness in overcoming the Kurdish ‎issue. As the Kurdish question is a domestic issue, it is Turkey itself that must find ‎a solution‎ to

Strategic Ambiguity in US-Taiwan Relations During the Donald Trump Administration

Strategic ambiguity, or the deliberate policy of uncertainty as to whether the United States would use force to defend Taiwan against an invasion by the People's Republic of China, has been the centrepiece of US policy towards the Taiwan issue for decades. This paper discusses the factors driving the redefinition of strategic ambiguity and its recalibration throughout Donald Trump's presidency (2017–2021). The fundamental driver of this change was to balance the rising power of the People’s Republic of China (PRC). The paper applied offensive realism as a theoretical framework for its analysis. Under President Donald Trump, Washington modified its policy of strategic ambiguity, explicitly framing relations with Taiwan within a broader Indo-Pacific strategy. While the US retained key elements of strategic ambiguity, including the 'One China' policy, it added new features to deploy it offensively against Beijing's growing regional hegemony. The increased dynamism and unpredictability of relations with Taiwan were matched by a welcoming attitude towards strengthening Taiwanese identity and highlighting the systemic differences between communist China and democratic Taiwan. America stepped up arms sales and encouraged Taiwan to build its self-defence capabilities. Washington engaged in countering Chinese attempts to isolate Taiwan internationally and included it in restructuring global supply chains. Although the United States has not formally revised the boundaries of the 'One China' policy, the modification of strategic ambiguity increased Taiwan's prominence in US-China power competition and pushed back the prospect of peaceful unification.

The Dismal Predicament of Kashmir from since Emancipation of India-Pakistan

Kashmir is such conflict which started based on denial of human needs like security, identity, recognition, and personal development. Kashmir issue an enduring rivalry between two states has become more complicated due to the involvement of non state actors means. South Asia, where it is fluctuating and disturbed four times but since 1999. it is stable due nuclear factor. Besides other factors, major contributing factor for disturbed balance of power. Due to the persistency of conflict, the region experienced wars, which disturbed of balance of power. Pakistan and India is based on their threat perception of each other. Having experienced of offensive realism four times, now these states are experiencing defensive realism since 1999. Balance Of power depends on their offensive and defensive nature of warfare. In such situation, human security is ignored and even it is not prime agenda of states. South Asian peace and security depends on US effective role to bring Pakistan and India to nuclear policies. Kashmir can only be resolved, if proper mechanism will be provided and with inclusion of Kashmiri's voice. Border management between Pakistan and Afghanistan which was not paid much attention should be given priority. Due to non-traditional threats„ (terrorist organization) peace and stability of the region is threatening. In this regard having realized the sensitivity to the issue, Pakistan and India should adopt a common agenda.

Ghosts of the Titanomachy: Structure, Commitment, Economics, and Risk as Causal Mechanisms in an Online Battle

Background In January 2014 over seven thousand EVE Online players engaged in a 21-h battle that came to be known as the Battle of B-R5RB, in which an estimated $330,000 of virtual property was destroyed, calculated in real U.S. dollars as measured by time. Aim To discern why players were willing to commit time and resources to fight in a large-scale virtual battle, which in turn informs how players perceive risk and develop large-scale emergent political structures. Method Drawing from multiple case history and journalism reports on the Battle of B-R5RB, the author combines the inductive ideographic case study approach and process tracing method to uncover key causal mechanisms. Results The author inductively theorizes that the Battle of B-R5RB resulted from the Null-Sec’s anarchic structure, player commitment to their respective Corporations, measurable economic value, and risk associated with permanent loss. These mechanisms closely align with the offensive realism and anarchy. Discussion and conclusion The Battle of B-R5B is a relevant example of real-world emergent political behavior developing in a virtual world setting. Analysis of this single battle suggests that players are willing to project actual value onto virtual assets. Perception of value is magnified in virtual worlds lacking overt governance or security structures. Players must form groups to mitigate risk, and the greater the risk, the greater the commitment to the group.

ERDOĞAN'S ENDLESS DREAMS

After the Justice and Development Party (AKP) rose to power in 2002, Turkey's Middle East policy underwent a radical change. Erdoğan's readings of the Arab Spring events are a vivid example of Turkey's new foreign policy. In the last months of 2019 and 2020, Turkey took two other important steps that have attracted the attention of the international community: engagement in Operation Peace Spring in northern Syria without UN Security Council authorization, and steps to reach an agreement with the Libyan government on oil and gas exploration in the Mediterranean in tandem with sending troops to Libya. Turkey's recent actions, which violate international law and UN resolutions, raise several questions: what changes have taken place in Turkey's foreign policy? What are its core drivers and main components? And what results will the new policy deliver in the future? We argue that Turkey's behavior conforms to the principles of offensive realism. The shift in Turkey's foreign policy and the trend toward offensive realism are rooted in the 2011 Arab Spring and subsequent events in the Middle East. The failed coup of 2016 accelerated these changes and pushed them in new directions. Turkey is now seriously aiming to maximize its power, particularly in the politico‐military field, which could increase tensions in the sensitive region. We submit that Turkey cannot be guided by offensive realism in the long term, however.

United States-China Space Offensive: A Dangerous Competition

ABSTRACT With the rise of China and the resurgence of Russia in international politics, a new power politics has emerged between the Great Powers, which has extended the arenas of power competition. One such significant and emerging area for the strategic competition is space, as it holds the key to the projection and protection of all forms of power. The paper explores the contours of the emerging space competition between the United States and China and its ramifications. It argues that the emerging commercialization of space will cause legal, political, and environmental issues due to its satellite saturation, space debris, and high competition for space dominance. This competition encompasses various sectors including space tourism, space mining, exploration of Mars, and militarization, weaponization, and territorialization of space. This study attempts to critically view the power competition in space through the lens of offensive realism, proposing that the desire for ‘power in space for states’ hegemony has led to a security dilemma between United States and China, which has far-reaching consequences for international peace and stability.

The epistemology of international politics: offensive realism and the Neorealist Scientific Research Program

What follows is a much-needed appraisal of the current state of scientificity and progressiveness in the study of international politics. Imre Lakatos’ Methodology of Scientific Research Programs will provide the epistemological grounds. Three broad claims will be made and supported: (i) Waltz’s neorealism is not an isolated theory of international politics, but a proper scientific research program; (ii) Mearsheimer’s offensive realism too is not an isolated theory, but a set of theoretical amendments to the Neorealist Scientific Research Program’s protective belt; and (iii) the offensive-realist theoryshift is both theoretically and empirically progressive.

Thoughts on Mearsheimer's "Offensive Realism"

Mearsheimer, a representative of offensive realism, argues that "security competition will re-emerge in post-Cold War Europe and Asia, and that international institutions cannot maintain peace." This is a hypothesis about the relationship between systemic polarity and world peace, which, in contrast to reality, has some problems with the internal logic of the theory. After analysis, Mearsheimer's assumptions about the position of the state, the choice of the state's target behavior, and the prediction of China's rise and behavior are unconvincing, both in terms of inherent problems of theoretical logical conformity and external inconsistencies with the facts; the problems of Mearsheimer's theory can provide us with insights: focus on thinking about theoretical doctrines, and better look at international relations with a critical eye different theoretical schools.

Methodological genesis of the concept “Soft power” in the system of global regionalism

The concept «power» has a significant status in the system of global regionalism. All concepts of political research originated in different branches of knowledge. Despite the great attention of scientists, the specific definition of this concept and the various approaches of the academic community cause the complexity and inconsistency to study the concept «power» in political science. Geopolitical space in this century is changing and the challenge of the phenomenon is to make an attractive country image. The national idea and mission of it can be concentrated and used by soft power mechanism in practice. «Soft power» has a goal to create motivation for action and make a decision by an object that has a «soft» effect. Therefore, to study indirect impact on the countries’ politics becomes the most burning. This work analyses the methodological genesis of the concept «Soft Power», gives the features of some theories considering the concept «power», including: classical, political, offensive realism, liberalism, democratic peace, the theory of international organizations, etc.

A Comparison Analysis of the Realism Theory Development among United States, Japan and China

Realism has always been the most powerful school of international relations theory. In addition to its long historical origin, realism theory continued to deepen vertically and horizontally with the development of the times. In the United States, realism has developed vertically, mainly explaining the three different stages on the issue of hegemony. In the first stage, classical realism preliminarily explored the pursuit of hegemony; In the second stage, structural realism rationally explained the maintenance of hegemony; In the third stage, offensive realism analyzed and demonstrated the expansion of hegemony. The horizontal development can be mainly shown in that realism theory has its theoretical achievements in both Japan and China. Japanese realism mainly explained foreign policy, and Chinese moral realism explained the problem of power transfer. The strong vitality of realism theory can be reflected in its development both vertically and horizontally.

Analisis Kepentingan Tiongkok dalam Kebijakan Belt and Road Initiative di Pakistan

This study aims to analyze China's interests in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) policies in Pakistan. Currently, Pakistan is China's strategic partner in the implementation of the BRI project. The infrastructure development in several sectors in Pakistan is being carried out massively through direct loans from China. This certainly raises questions regarding China's interests in Pakistan and this study attempts to answer these questions. This study uses descriptive qualitative research methods with literature study as the data collection technique. To analyze the case, this study applies offensive realism theory, with the concepts of hegemony, and national interest. The results of this study indicate that China's efforts in Pakistan are actually a form of Chinese active maneuvers in achieving its interests, namely hegemony. Through the BRI project, China can connect with the largest oil-producing countries in order to meet its high industrial needs. Second, the connectivity created by BRI enables China to increase its force capability in the South Asian region. Third is political interests, in which China can create a positive image to substantially increase its diplomatic power and strengthen its international status. Lastly, the ideological interest in which China uses slogans such as the 'Chinese Dream' for the stability and legitimacy of Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party over their domestic society

The Concept of China’s Peaceful Rise and Offensive Realism

This article aims at adressing several research issues. Firstly, to present offensive realism as a proper research tool to analyse US-China rivalry. Secondly, the author discusses the theory of “China’s peaceful rise” and I argues that it smoothly overlapped with the US strategy of liberal hegemony. Thirdly, He presents and defends the argument that China does not rise peacefully. Fourthly, the author claims that China wants to became a regional hegemon in South-East Asia and the USA according to offensive realism cannot let it happen. Last but not least the author considers the arguments that are frequently used to support the theory of “China’s peaceful rise” and explains why they fail to depict the current and predict the future nature of US-China relations. In this article the author employed the following research methods: historical, descriptive and decision making methods.

From Defensive toward Offensive Realism: Strategic Competition and Continuities in the United States’ China Policy

ABSTRACT This study dispels the common view that the Trump administration has fundamentally reoriented the United States’ China policy by emphasizing strategic competition. Instead, the study argues that the Obama administration’s pivot initiative began the shift of the United States’ China policy from a defensive realist posture toward an offensive realist posture. The Biden administration’s China policy inherits the strategic competition approach. This study suggests that the competitive logic of the anarchic international system underlies all three administrations’ competition-oriented China policies. Therefore, while there are differences in the China policies of the three administrations, their commonalities and continuities are salient. Structural realism, especially offensive realism and dynamic neorealism, thus offers important insights into the future direction of Sino-US relations.

The Great Powers Interests in Afghanistan: Impacts on Pakistan Post - 9/11

Afghanistan has a unique politico-strategic position on the world map. There are multiple reasons that always draw the attention of regional and foreign players for their national interests. The event of 9/11 again turned Afghanistan into an arena of competition for self-interests of regional and international powers. The study observes the great powers USA, China and Russia’s convergence and divergence of interests in Afghanistan in the merrier of “Offensive Realism” theory. This aim of the study is to analyze the involvement of great powers in Afghanistan and its impacts on Pakistan.This qualitative research work analyze through content analysis. The study finds out that Afghanistan’s good and bad situation always affects Pakistan.

Отношения России с НАТО и система европейской безопасности в контексте концепций неореализма

The article gives the analysis of relations between NATO and Russia in the context of the formation of European security system in the post-bipolar period based on the concepts of defensive and offensive realism, which largely clarify the nature of the political crisis and a return to rivalry for spheres of influence in the post-Soviet space. Analyzing the redistribution of power in the system of international relations, the author argues that the NATO countries and the United States should take into account the historical characteristics and location of Russia, her national interests, the strengthening of her international positions, and concern about security problems at her borders. On the basis of the concept of neorealism, conclusions are drawn about the problems of the European security system and the growing uncertainty in world politics. The author points out to the need for the West to understand the content of Russia's foreign policy, which proceeds from defensive preferences of realism and the search for institutional mechanisms of cooperation.

On U. S. Hegemony over the Communications Industry from the Perspective of Offensive Realism

The evolution of international relations has proven that the rise of hegemony is closely related to its progress in technological industries. Each time the communication technology is upgraded, the hegemony of existing powers will be challenged and the world political order will be reshaped. In recent years, Huawei’s advanced 5G technology has become the industry benchmark worldwide, raising concerns in the US about its national interests. Under such circumstances, the United States has taken a series of measures to block and clamp down on Huawei. The paper aims to examine the real purpose of America’s ban on Huawei based on the offensive realism theory that shapes America’s foreign policies in recent years and finally analyzes the ban’s impact on Northeast Asia.

The Changing U.S. - Africa Relations: From Offshore Balancer to Offensive Realism?

The inauguration of Barack Obama as the 44th president of the United States was positively received in US and abroad as a welcome opportunity for change. Yet, whether the shift to a more critical tone will translate into a significant change to the substance of US-Africa policy remains a matter of concern. The first-ever U.S. -Africa Leaders' Summit was organized in Washington on August 4-6, 2014. This Summit marks, to a certain extent, a watershed or pivotal moment in U.S. Africa relations. The central question driving this research can be formulated simply as follow: Does the U.S.-Africa Leaders’ Summit constitutes a part of global policy, a paradigmatic shift in U.S. policy towards Africa or a renewal of the American people commitment to Africa? The first hypothesis sustained by the study is that the U.S. is moving from offshore balancer or “leadership from behind” to a relative offensive realism when it comes to foreign policy framing and implementation in Africa. The second hypothesis is that the U.S.-Africa Leaders’ Summit and many other elements insert Africa in general, and Sub-Saharan Africa in particular, in the U.S. “grand strategy of transformation” with the objective to maintain U.S. leadership by preventing the hegemonic domination of new great power rivals in Africa. Built on realism, liberalism and alliance theory, the study finds that contrary to high expectations within Africa that the Obama presidency would herald a new age of US-Africa relations, the reality thus far seems to suggest a smart continuity rather than revolutionary change. What is evident is a new, firmer rhetoric rather than a tremendous change from the previous administrations. However, placed within the broader historical context of US-Africa relations, there are many substantive elements characterizing America’s new approach or relative offensive realism based on logistics, intelligence and mostly development and security issues.

When Does Competition Become Conflict? Technology, Geography, and the Offense–Defense Balance

AbstractIs there a meaningful offense–defense balance of technological, geographical, and human factors that substantially affects war likelihood and severity? Key contemporary policy debates are certainly infused with the notion, from the dangers of crisis instability in East Asia to the possible first-move advantages of cyber weaponry. Defensive realist theory, meanwhile, raises the possibility of inferring intent from external posture choices. Yet for offensive realists, such signaling is a doomed hope, because of aggressors’ incentives to conceal their hostile intentions before turning extant military technology to offensive ends. This article suggests that both perspectives misstate the causal role of the offense–defense balance. Competition may be a general condition of international politics—but it only manifests itself as a military conflict, defined as “cold” or ultimately “hot” war, under certain conditions. Specifically, the feasibility of advancing political goals via aggression rests on prevailing military technology, taken in its geographical context—that is, offense–defense calculations. Via three sub-theoretical cases—the “stopping power of water,” conventional blitzkrieg, and nuclear counterforce innovation—the article shows that the offense–defense balance affects conflict likelihood and severity even within offensive realism, specifically by affecting deterrence prospects. But this does not mean, as defensive realism posits, that the distinguishability of defense dominance promises a route out of the security dilemma.