Offensive Realism Research Articles

미국과 중국은 ‘투키디데스 함정’에 빠져 있는가?

This article evaluates the possibility of ‘Thucydides’s Trap’ between the U.S. and China through defensive realism. The possibility of U.S.-China conflict has been mainly discussed in the frame of offensive realism. It argues that if China’s rise continues, it will cause serious military conflict between the two. However, it is unclear whether the crisis will turn into an actual conflict. Defensive realism provides an alternative perspective. However, the interpretation by defensive realism in contrast to offensive realism has not been highlighted. Considering the importance of defensive realism, there is a theoretical gap for the most important global issue. Most realist explanations predict U.S.-China relations as serious conflicts, but defensive realism posits that it does not necessarily have to be pessimistic. This article draws the concepts of a state’s motivation and type, status quo, security dilemma, and grand bargain, reinterprets U.S.-China relations, and presents alternative policies.

Where Does NATO's Enlargement Lead To?

The aim of this article is to show from the perspective of offensive realism the implications of NATO's post-Cold War enlargement. These implications should be seen on multiple levels: (a) the security of the new members of the North Atlantic Alliance, (b) the USA and the cohesiveness of NATO, (c) Russia, (d) the outbreak of war between Russia and Ukraine, (e) the militarization of relations in Europe, and (c) the global international system. The war in Ukraine is forcing the U.S. to make compromises with Russia and China, and this calls into question NATO's continued ‘open door’ policy.

Mearsheimer, Putin, ideology, and the war in Ukraine

Abstract This article questions the offensive realist explanation of the war in Ukraine found in the work of John Mearsheimer. It argues that Mearsheimer’s failure to take seriously predispositional factors means his account of the war offers an incomplete basis for discerning motives, predicting the conflict’s evolution, or responding to Russian aggression. To address this deficit and explain how ideological beliefs and meanings expressed in discourse are shaping Russia’s prosecution of the war, the article sets out an interpretive framework that draws on insights into armed conflict and ideology from the likes of Michael Freeden and Jonathan Leader Maynard as well as contributions to Political Discourse Analysis (PDA) primarily in the work of Teun van Dijk. To explore the Russian ideological and discursive aspects at play in the Ukraine war, the article fixes its analytical gaze on an address delivered by Putin to the Russian nation on February 24, 2022.

The Return of Billiard Balls? US–China Tech War and China’s State-Directed Digital Capitalism

Media policy analysts of (neo)liberal persuasion have long seen China as an anomaly. This is, however, a narrow perspective, whose explanatory power pales facing the challenge of recent events. Drawing upon International Relations (IR) theories, this article reflects on the contradicting ideas of (neo)liberalism and (neo)realism in digital media policy, while examining US–China tech war and China’s state-directed platform capitalism. It argues that more attention should be paid to neorealist frameworks, especially Mearsheimer’s offensive realism, which sees the world as consisting of billiard balls bumping into each other, pursuing hegemony. How is offensive realism useful in helping understand recent events about China? How is it also limited? Are we returning to an era of billiard balls? What are the implications for digital media policy to transcend platform capitalism and approach platform socialism?

Saudi Arabian-Led Intervention in Yemen Conflicts

The conflict in Yemen started as a civil war, which was perpetuated by various conflicting groups’ attempts to address and compete for political, economic, and social influence in Yemen (Byers & Stewart, n.d.). However, the Saudi Arabian-led intervention has escalated the local conflicts and transformed the conflicts in Yemen into a significant regional and global competition between different countries and regional sects (Byers & Stewart, n.d.). The main goals of this research are to protect children’s rights and safety, as well as prevent armed conflicts in Yemen. The author will analyze the Saudi Arabian-led intervention in Yemeni conflicts by using social identity theory, the theory of structural violence, and the theory of offensive realism. Social identity theory provides a notion that conflicts between groups might be caused by favoritism towards in-group members and marginalization towards out-group members (Turner & Tajfel, 1986). The theory of structural violence explains the interrelationships among structural inequality, poverty, and violence in society (Galtung & Fischer, 2013). The theory of offensive realism illustrates the political, economic, and territorial factors that attracted different nations and sects to participate in the Saudi Arabian-led intervention of the Yemeni conflicts (Lobell, 2010). Moreover, the author will introduce interest-based mediation to conflicting parties to allow them to explore alternatives for making peace (Moore, 1987). The integrated analyses of theories and intervention practice will enhance the understanding of this conflicting case, as well as provide a comprehensive understanding about parties’ interests and the importance of protecting children’s rights in the conflicts.

THE INTEGRATION PROCESSES AND POLICY OF INTERSTATE COOPERATION IN THE CASPIAN REGION IN THE CONTEXT OF CHANGING THE MODERN INTERNATIONAL ORDER

The article explores the processes of transformation of the Caspian region from the area of post-Soviet collapse into a place for the implementation of strategically beneficial economic projects. Using the analytical framework of "offensive realism" theory, this study shows that the balance of large and small potentials creates positive opportunities for the implementation of promising economic and infrastructure projects. The author proves that at present the Caspian region demonstrates to the whole world the practical application of the principles of multi-vector and multi-polarity. At the same time, the diplomatic services of the Caspian five have to act precisely in the conditions of a multi-vector foreign policy, which has specific features that correspond to the changing nature of the modern international situation.

Liberal Internationalism, Offensive Realism and Intelligence Liaison: The Case of the Israeli and South African Intelligence Services

Liberal Internationalism, Offensive Realism and Intelligence Liaison: The Case of the Israeli and South African Intelligence Services

The Indo-Pacific Geostrategy and the Quad: The Pacific Century and China-USA Disputes

In 2011, during the Obama administration (2009-2017), changes in the course of the United States' geostrategy for Asia were named America's Pacific Century; which marks the shift in the US foreign policy towards a focus on the Pacific in the 21st century, and on the great powers present in the region, mainly China. Such actions are mainly based on the geopolitics of Offensive Realism as a strategic premise. In order to oppose the Chinese rise in the interstate system and maintain the primacy of its interests in Asia, the US proposes the Indo-Pacific strategy, in order to balance the Chinese role in the continent; in addition to the formation of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), together with Japan, Australia, and India, to establish a security partnership with those considered the greatest adversaries, in the US view, to Chinese interests in the Pacific. This strategy for Asia seeks to counteract the gradual Chinese preponderance in the Asia-Pacific region. Therefore, this article proposes to analyse the origins and main motivations for the establishment of a structure to contain China in the Pacific by the United States, as well as the Chinese positions and considerations for the region.

A THE RUSSIA-UKRAINE CONFLICT AND ITS IMPACT ON CONTEMPORARY GLOBAL SECURITY

This study is concerned with analysing the Russia-Ukraine conflict and its impact on contemporary global security. Anchored on the theory of Offensive Realism in the explanation of the phenomenon under study, the qualitative descriptive-historical technique was adopted which relied on secondary sources of data and content analysis. Findings from the study revealed that the history of the Russia-Ukraine conflict dates back to the Kievan Rus from which both nations emerged, conquest, domination by Russia and Ukrainian independence pre and post-soviet Ukraine; a majority of foreign powers and international organizations such as the United Nations, European Union, condemned the Russian invasion of Ukraine, imposed economic sanctions, and provided overt and covert military and humanitarian support to Ukraine. It was further revealed that apart from increased refugees epidemic and IDPs, given the importance of Russia and Ukraine in gas, steel and grains supply in the world economy, the war has created a shortage of these important goods thereby heightening global inflation, economic recessing, protests and social upheavals, arms proliferation capable of raising insurrection and further insecurity across countries. The study recommended that parties to the conflict should seek political rather than military solutions to end the war quickly so that the sanctions which have been detrimental to the global economy and security would be eased

Why Did China's Assertive Strategy on The Himalayan Border?

The development of differing perceptions of the Line of Actual Control (LAC) has been one of the constant factors leading to the protracted dispute in the Himalayan border. Since the outbreak of war in 1962, recriminations and clashes between military forces have continued along the 3,488 km disputed area. Since 1980 both parties have continued to make efforts to resolve disputes with a fair and acceptable solution. Unfortunately, the initiations of these peace efforts have always been deadlocked. At first, in responding to India, China preferred to be passive. However, recently China has begun to respond with an assertive behavior. The deployment of army troops, military equipment, covert attacks, and massive infrastructure development was carried out by China in strategic Himalayan border. This study explores the changing of China’s assertive strategy in the Himalayas by employing offensive realism and using qualitative approach. This study has found that the changing behavior of China’s is related protecting its national interests and territorial sovereignty as well as a form of affirming the stability of China's dominance in the region. This study's results will provide an overview that there has been a shift in China's strategy for managing its border conflict with India.

India’s Quest for a Limited War-fighting Doctrine; Analyzing the Sundarji, Cold Start, Joint Doctrine Indian Armed Force and Land Warfare Doctrine

The strategic stability of South Asia predominantly depends on India and Pakistan. However, the Indian quest to indulge Pakistan in a limited war remains a constant threat to the strategic stability of South Asia. The dynamics of strategic stability have remained complex due to the hostile relations between India and Pakistan. India has remained in the process of doctrinal transformation since the 1980s. The Sundarji doctrine, Cold Start, Joint Doctrine (Indian Armed Forces), and Land Warfare doctrine all aim at launching an offensive against Pakistan. To supplement India’s ambitious aims in the region, India has frequently introduced innovative war-fighting doctrines. The Indian military's aggressive approach towards the region reflects India’s adherence to the principles of offensive realism. The theory of offensive realism promulgates the maximization of power by the dominant states. Therefore, it appropriately defines India’s limited warfighting aims in the region. The study provides a comprehensive understanding of prominent Indian war-fighting doctrines and their shortcomings. Consequently, it provides an in-depth knowledge of limited Indian war-fighting doctrines.

Национальная сила стран мира: оценка и прогноз

The present paper follows up an earlier study on modeling and assessing the national strength of the world countries. This integral index is the most informative and popular indicator in the world that characterizes the aggregate potential of a particular country and at the same time makes it possible to compare the level of its power and socio-economic development with similar indicators of other states. In the past national strength calculations were carried out by well-known political figures, such as foreign policy strategist and director (from 1975 to 2013) of the main Office of Net Assessment (ONA) of the US Department of Defence, Andrew Marshall [1], founder of political realism, Nicholas John Spekeman [2], one of the leading US foreign policy experts, Hans Morgenthau [3], founder of neorealism theory Kenneth Neil Waltz [4], author of the theory of offensive realism John Mearsheimer [5] and others. To date, dozens of methods for assessing national strength have been developed, the first of which was put forward in 1741. In the article first of all we’ll consider the most well-known foreign results and then present our own ones. In our opinion, it is important to make calculations of the integral indicator of national strength on an ongoing basis, as well as to compare our country’s potential with alternative estimates of analytical centers of geopolitical opponents.

Bosnia and Herzegovina in John Mearsheimer’s Concepts

Starting from the analysis of the texts of the American political scientist J. Mearsheimer created during the aggression against Bosnia and Herzegovina, the central theme of the paper is Mearsheimer's view on the Bosnian issue. The political-administrative organization of Bosnia and Herzegovina is still a relevant topic that takes the form of a permanent political crisis. The paper presents a synthesis of Mearsherimer's conceptions immanent in the theory of offensive realism, as well as a breakdown of post-Cold War political processes which, according to the principle of causality, can be viewed as a catalyst for the aggression against Bosnia and Herzegovina. Understanding the current dynamics of world political movements with an emphasis on Bosnia and Herzegovina is one of the fundamental components of this work.

Questioning China’s Peaceful Development: A Mahanian Sea Power Analysis of Blue Water Navy Accumulation

China has been rapidly accumulating naval capabilities for nearly 4 decades with the ambition of pursuing blue-water-navy forces through its People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN). With its peaceful development policy, the acquisition of such powers has been interpreted as an anomaly and therefore resulted in an increase of security dilemmas between states. In the quest for explanations behind China’s actions, multiple scholars have examined this phenomenon by utilizing offensive realism, defensive realism, and Tirpitzian non-hegemonic naval theory. Thus, this paper brings another perspective by applying the Mahanian Sea Power approach. Consequently, the analysis established that China’s pursuit of blue-water-navy is driven by its interest in economic supremacy. In addition, the intention is also influenced by its wide coastline, large population, competitive nationals, and independent decisive government. The paper concludes that a blue-water-navy is a necessity for China in order to access markets, secure territorial interests, and obtain command of the sea for economic purposes.

The Indo-Pacific Strategy from the Perspective of Offensive Realism

The Indo-Pacific strategy marks a shift in U.S. policy toward China from engagement to containment. The new goal of above policy is to comprehensively use various means to prevent China’s further rise and continue to maintain U.S. comparative advantage. However, the U.S. has been in trouble in recent years in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, unable to focus on China’s rise. Therefore, uniting Japan, India, and Australia to share the responsibility and obligation to balance China among the so-called G4 will not only meet the strategic needs of dealing with China’s threat, but also reduce the pressure of U.S. global strategic contraction. For Japan, India and Australia, in the face of an increasingly aggressive China, all three countries feel the need to seek the support and help of the United States, a major power outside the region, to maintain regional balance of power and balance. From the theoretical perspective of offensive realism, the Indo-Pacific strategy embodies the policy preferences of the four countries for establishing a balance of power and shirking responsibility in the process of maintaining the balance of regional power structures. However, like the theoretical flaws of offensive realism, the Indo-Pacific strategy has limitations and potential risks that may have a negative impact on the effective development of the strategy.

Understanding the US and China Rivalry through Modelski’s Model & Offensive Realism Theory (The Past, Present & Future)

While the impact of the US-Chinese rivalry on the global political system has led to considerable literature, there are some discussions on the possible strategies that the USA and China can follow in this rivalry. On the one hand, it is wondered what kind of road map the USA and China will follow, on the other hand, Modelski's Long Cycle Model can offer an explanation and prediction opportunity in this regard. This model produces an explanation that includes the past, present, and future within the framework of the enormous increase in the interdependence of states at the global level. In this study, the explanation model developed by Modelski is used to understand the political and economic order that has emerged around China's evolving role in the global political system.

Alliance politics across the Indo-Pacific: an offensive realist analysis of the QUAD’s transformation

Alliance politics across the Indo-Pacific: an offensive realist analysis of the QUAD’s transformation

Mearsheimer, Realism, and the Ukraine War

AbstractThe usefulness of ‘realism’ in explaining Russia’s decision to invade Ukraine has become a keenly contested debate not only in International Relations but in wider public intellectual discourse since the onset of the war in February 2022. At the centre of this debate is the punditry of John J. Mearsheimer, a prominent offensive realist who is a Professor of International Relations at the University of Chicago. This article argues that although Mearsheimer is indeed a realist, his offensive realism is but one of many different realist theories that can forward an explanation of the Ukraine War. Beyond the apparent hegemony of structural realism (the branch of realism to which Mearsheimer’s offensive realism belongs), it is argued that classical and neoclassical realist frameworks can provide more nuanced and, ultimately, convincing arguments as to why Russian President Vladimir Putin decided to invade Ukraine. This is because both classical and neoclassical realism can incorporate insights from non-realist studies—such as the concepts of civilization and ontological security—and combine them into an overarching power politics framework. Although neither classical nor neoclassical realism is flawless in their explanations, they demonstrate that realism does not just have to be about international power structures but can offer multivariate accounts of why a state, like Russia, decided to act, such as invading Ukraine.

Great Power Competition in Non‐sovereign Entities: US–China Tug‐of‐War over Hong Kong, 1950–2020

The theory of offensive realism postulates that when a potential hegemon and an existing hegemon clash, their intense security competition will span all corners of the globe. This study advances the literature by investigating the impact of great power on non‐sovereign entities, using Hong Kong as a case study. Drawing on archival and published data, this study examines the geopolitical status of Hong Kong as a function of the changing US–China great power relations. The findings of this study demonstrate that as a consequence of the changing US–China relations, Hong Kong has been transformed from a geopolitical buffer zone in the 1950s and 1960s (US–China restrained competition) and the 1970s through the 2000s (US–China rapprochement) into a geopolitical hot spot since the 2010s (US–China intense competition). This study contributes to the literature by fostering dialogues between great power studies and the non‐sovereignty literature.

The Turkish Art of Offensive-Balancing from the Perspective of Neorealism

In his foreign policy, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has reconsidered commitments to the United States and NATO allies that limit his political ambitions. Turkey’s military power is actively involved in Syria, Iraq, Libya, the Eastern Mediterranean, and the South Caucasus in an attempt to alter the existing regional orders. Offensive realism, as a branch of neorealism, asserts that states are willing to use force to advance their own interests, and that their survival in the international system requires a maximization of power. Defensive neorealism holds that aggressive expansion clashes with the interests of other states and their desire to ensure their own security. According to the balance of power theory, the expansion and maximization of power reduces the security of an offensive state by countering a coalition of balancing states. At the same time, Turkish foreign policy strongly supports the formation of an Islamist, neo-patrimonialist, populist, and security-obsessed ruling bloc representing the resentment of Turkish society of the historical injustices committed by the West. This article attempts to determine Erdoğan’s strategy, examines it from the standpoint of the offensive/defensive approach of neorealism, and evaluates its effectiveness. Erdoğan has created a multi-polar balancing structure of foreign relations in which Turkish rivals restrain each other. This structure is similar to a pentahedron with Turkey in the center and its main rivals–partners arrayed around it at each point. Ankara, by shifting closer to one or another rival–partner, can effectively bargain with others using threats.