Ocean Resolution Research Articles

Roles of TAO/TRITON and Argo in tropical Pacific observing system: An OSSE study for multiple time scale variability

AbstractIn this study, a series of ocean observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) are conducted in support of the tropical Pacific observing system (TPOS) 2020 Project (TPOS 2020) which was established in 2014, with aims to develop a more sustainable and resilient observing system for the tropical Pacific. The experiments are based on an ocean data assimilation system that is under development at the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation (JCSDA) and the Environmental Modeling Center (EMC)/National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). The atmospheric forcing and synthetic ocean observations are generated from a nature run, which is based on a modified CFSv2 with a vertical ocean resolution of 1-meter near the ocean surface. To explore the efficacy of TAO/TRITON and Argo observations in TPOS, synthetic ocean temperature and salinity observations were constructed by sampling the nature run following their present distributions. Our experiments include a free run with no “observations” assimilated, and assimilation runs with the TAO/TRITON and Argo synthetic observations assimilated separately or jointly. These experiments were analyzed by comparing their long-term mean states and variabilities at different time scales [i.e., low-frequency (>90 days), intraseasonal (20~90 days), and high-frequency (<20 days)]. It was found that (1) both TAO/TRITON and especially Argo effectively improve the estimation of mean states and low-frequency variations; (2) on the intraseasonal time scale, Argo has more significant improvements than TAO/TRITON (except for regions close to TAO/TRITON sites); (3) on the high-frequency time scale, both TAO/TRITON and Argo have evident deficits (although for TAO/TRITON, limited improvements were present close to TAO/TRITON sites).

Deep mixed ocean volume in the Labrador Sea in HighResMIP models

Simulations from seven global coupled climate models performed at high and standard resolution as part of the high resolution model intercomparison project (HighResMIP) are analyzed to study deep ocean mixing in the Labrador Sea and the impact of increased horizontal resolution. The representation of convection varies strongly among models. Compared to observations from ARGO-floats and the EN4 data set, most models substantially overestimate deep convection in the Labrador Sea. In four out of five models, all four using the NEMO-ocean model, increasing the ocean resolution from 1° to 1/4° leads to increased deep mixing in the Labrador Sea. Increasing the atmospheric resolution has a smaller effect than increasing the ocean resolution. Simulated convection in the Labrador Sea is mainly governed by the release of heat from the ocean to the atmosphere and by the vertical stratification of the water masses in the Labrador Sea in late autumn. Models with stronger sub-polar gyre circulation have generally higher surface salinity in the Labrador Sea and a deeper convection. While the high-resolution models show more realistic ocean stratification in the Labrador Sea than the standard resolution models, they generally overestimate the convection. The results indicate that the representation of sub-grid scale mixing processes might be imperfect in the models and contribute to the biases in deep convection. Since in more than half of the models, the Labrador Sea convection is important for the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), this raises questions about the future behavior of the AMOC in the models.

Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Covariances in Global Ensemble Simulations: Impact of an Eddy-Resolving Ocean

AbstractPatterns of correlations between the ocean and the atmosphere are examined using a high-resolution (1/12° ocean and ice, 1/3° atmosphere) ensemble of data assimilative, coupled, global, ocean–atmosphere forecasts. This provides a unique perspective into atmosphere–ocean interactions constrained by assimilated observations, allowing for the contrast of patterns of coupled processes across regions and the examination of processes affected by ocean mesoscale eddies. Correlations during the first 24 h of the coupled forecast between the ocean surface temperature and atmospheric variables, and between the ocean mixed layer depth and surface winds are examined as a function of region and season. Three distinct coupling regimes emerge: 1) regions characterized by strong sea surface temperature fronts, where uncertainty in the ocean mesoscale influences ocean–atmosphere exchanges; 2) regions with intense atmospheric convection over the tropical oceans, where uncertainty in the modeled atmospheric convection impacts the upper ocean; and 3) regions where the depth of the seasonal mixed layer (MLD) determines the magnitude of the coupling, which is stronger when the MLD is shallow and weaker when the MLD is deep. A comparison with models at lower horizontal (1/12° vs 1° and 1/4°) and vertical (1- vs 10-m depth of the first layer) ocean resolution reveals that coupling in the boundary currents, the tropical Indian Ocean, and the warm pool regions requires high levels of horizontal and vertical resolution. Implications for coupled data assimilation and short-term forecasting are discussed.

Effect of Resolving Ocean Eddies on the Transient Response of Global Mean Surface Temperature to Abrupt 4xCO2 Forcing

AbstractThe magnitude of global mean surface temperature (GMST) response to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations is affected by the efficiency of ocean heat uptake, which in turn can be affected by oceanic mesoscale eddies. Using the Max Planck Institute ‐ Earth System Model (MPI‐ESM1.2), we find that resolving eddies leads to a −0.1°C cooler response of GMST to an abrupt CO2 quadrupling, which is related to a larger rate of heat uptake by an eddying ocean. This is consistent with changes in the energy budget of the whole climate system induced by increasing ocean resolution under the same radiative forcing and climate feedback. As a fast response, heat is taken up by the deep ocean, independent of resolution. The change in deep ocean heat uptake due to resolved eddies is an amplification in the magnitude of the responses of all heat processes, including eddy heat advection, mean heat advection, and diffusive processes.

A hybrid framework for forecasting monthly reservoir inflow based on machine learning techniques with dynamic climate forecasts, satellite-based data, and climate phenomenon information

In this study, we developed and evaluated a hybrid framework for reservoir inflow forecast. This framework is unprecedented, which integrates new quasi-globally available observation-, satellite-, or model-based datasets using machine learing models to forecast inflow at the local scale. Under this framework, we compared random forests, gradient boosting machine, extreme learning machine, M5-cubist, elastic net, as well as their multi-model ensemble using Bayesian model averaging (BMA), and tested contributions from different input datasets, including retrospective forecast (reforecast) from florecast oriented low ocean resolution (FLOR) dynamic climate model, satellite-based hydrologic products, and climate phenomenon information. The performance was evaluated using Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE) and correlation coefficient (R) in two headwater reservoirs, Harris reservoir in the humid Alabama–Coosa–Tallapoosa river basin and the Navajo reservoir in the arid Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB). The results showed that for the Harris reservoir, the BMA combining five models with antecedent inflow and satellite-based hydrologic information as model inputs provided the best performance (KGE = 0.66, R = 0.76). For the Navajo reservoir, the gradient boosting machine model with all variables combined as input showed the best performance (KGE = 0.76, R = 0.83). Satellite-based soil moisture and evaporation consistently showed significant contributions to the inflow forecast. Benefits from climate indices and FLOR reforecast varied by locations, with more benefits coming from climate indices than FLOR potential evaporation reforecast at the Navajo reservoir in UCRB. Given the global coverage of the model inputs, our approach can be potentially applicable to improve reservoir inflow forecasts in different regions of the world.

On the Role of the Antarctic Slope Front on the Occurrence of the Weddell Sea Polynya under Climate Change

AbstractThis study investigates the occurrence of the Weddell Sea polynya under an idealized climate change scenario by evaluating simulations from climate models of different ocean resolutions. The GFDL-CM2.6 climate model, with roughly 3.8-km horizontal ocean grid spacing in the high latitudes, forms a Weddell Sea polynya at similar time and duration under idealized climate change forcing as under preindustrial forcing. In contrast, all convective models forming phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) show either a cessation or a slowdown of Weddell Sea polynya events under climate warming. The representation of the Antarctic Slope Current and related Antarctic Slope Front is found to be key in explaining the differences between the two categories of models, with these features being more realistic in CM2.6 than in CMIP5. In CM2.6, the freshwater input driven by sea ice melt and enhanced runoff found under climate warming largely remains on the shelf region since the slope front restricts the lateral spread of the freshwater. In contrast, for most CMIP5 models, open-ocean stratification is enhanced by freshening since the absence of a slope front allows coastal freshwater anomalies to spread into the open ocean. This enhanced freshening contributes to the slowdown the occurrence of Weddell Sea polynyas. Hence, an improved representation of Weddell Sea shelf processes in current climate models is desirable to increase our ability to predict the fate of the Weddell Sea polynyas under climate change.

Asymmetric Ocean Response to Atmospheric Forcing in an Island Wake: A 35-Year High-Resolution Study

The present study assesses the thermal variability of the regional ocean around Madeira Island, in intraseasonal and interdecadal time scales, using a 35-year (1983–2017), 3-km horizontal resolution ocean simulation forced by a co-located atmospheric simulation, with SODA and ERA5 boundary and initial conditions, respectively. Atmosphere–ocean interactions in this region are found to be driven by the variability of two quasi-permanent tip-jets, located at the island west and east tips, especially during the summer months. The ocean response is found to be larger in the regions of higher jets speed variability, but its thermal response is highly asymmetrical. On the interdecadal time scale, a significant intensification of both jets during the analyzed period is more prominent in the east tip, but the thermal signature is mostly associated with a much reduced sea surface temperature trend near the west tip.

Reevaluating the impacts of oceanic vertical resolution on the simulation of Madden–Julian Oscillation eastward propagation in a climate system model

The upper ocean plays a critical role in determining the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) characteristics through modulating the tropical atmosphere–ocean interaction. By increasing the oceanic vertical resolution, its impacts on the MJO eastward propagation are discussed in this study by using a climate system model. With a refined vertical resolution in the upper ocean, warmer surface ocean and shallower mixed layer depth are produced in the tropics, which induces associated atmospheric changes as the response to the ocean feedbacks. Enhanced November–April-mean vertically-integrated specific humidity is found around the equatorial region with the increased vertical resolution, which strengthens the zonal and meridional moisture gradients. The lead-lag correlation of MJO precipitation demonstrates that the simulated MJO eastward propagation is improved with increased oceanic vertical resolution by improving the simulations of convective instability at the east of the MJO convective center, the boundary layer moisture convergence, the low- and upper-level circulation, and the vertical structure of equivalent potential temperature and diabatic heating. Moreover, the zonal asymmetry of the tendency of specific humidity is also improved by increasing the oceanic vertical resolution. The vertically-integrated moisture budget analysis is applied to further investigate the dominance of the moistening and drying processes. Results reveal that the drying processes are successfully reproduced over the central Indian Ocean in the case of increased oceanic vertical resolution, whilst the moistening processes are not well captured over the Maritime Continent and the MJO “detour” region. It suggests that additional modifications are needed to further improve the MJO simulation.

The representation of winter Northern Hemisphere atmospheric blocking in ECMWF seasonal prediction systems

AbstractThe simulation and prediction of winter Northern Hemisphere atmospheric blocking in the seasonal prediction systems from the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is analysed. Blocking statistics from the operational November‐initialised seasonal hindcasts are evaluated in three generations of models: System3, System4, and System5 (SEAS5). Improvements in the climatological representation of blocking are observed in the most recent model configurations, with reduced bias over North Pacific and Greenland. Minor progress is seen over the European sector, where SEAS5 still underestimates the observed blocking frequency. SEAS5 blocking interannual variability is underestimated too and is proportional to the climatological frequency, highlighting that a negative bias in the blocking frequency implies an underestimation of the interannual variance. SEAS5 predictive skill and signal‐to‐noise ratio remain low, but interesting positive results are found over Western and Central Europe. Improved forecasts with reduced ensemble spread are obtained during El Niño years, especially at low latitudes. Complementary experiments show that the statistics of blocking are improved following atmospheric and oceanic resolution increase. Conversely, they remain largely insensitive to coupled model sea‐surface temperature (SST) errors. On the other hand, the implementation of stochastic parameterisations tends to displace blocking activity equatorward. Finally, by comparing seasonal hindcasts with climate runs using the same model, we highlight that the largest contributors to the chronic underestimation of blocking are persistent errors in the atmospheric model. It is also shown that SST errors have a larger impact on blocking bias in climate runs than in seasonal runs, and that increased ocean model resolution contributes to improved blocking more effectively in climate runs. Seasonal forecasts can thus be considered a suitable test‐bed for model development targeting blocking improvement in climate models.

About the Artist: Latai Taumoepeau

About the Artist: Latai Taumoepeau Katerina Teaiwa Latai Taumoepeau makes live art, drawing from her homeland, the Kingdom of Tonga, and her birthplace, Sydney, land of the Eora Nation. Her body-centered faivā (performance practice) emerges from Tongan philosophies of relational space and time, integrating ancient and everyday temporal practice to illustrate the impact of environmental and social crisis in Oceania. Through her engagement with the sociopolitical landscape of Australia, spotlighting issues related to race, class, and the female body politic, she seeks to bring minority community voices and experiences into the foreground. Taumoepeau has presented and performed works at various events and venues in Melbourne, Queensland, and Sydney, as well as at festivals and galleries in Berlin, Hong Kong, and London. Since 2016, she has been working with Arts House in Melbourne on Refuge, an annual artist-led community preparedness program held in collaboration with Emergency Management Victoria and other community stakeholders (see also Mangioni, this issue). She is also involved in climate change advocacy for Pacific Island nations through various community engagement projects and regional campaigns. In addition to her artistic practice, Taumoepeau has worked for Playwriting Australia, where she facilitated an introductory playwriting program for communities and schools with culturally and linguistically diverse backgrounds, and for Radio Skid Row, a community radio station in Sydney, where she engaged communities underrepresented in mainstream media in creative digital media projects. She has also received numerous awards, including the Prague Quadrennial Award for Excellence in Performance Design for Repatriate (2019), which is featured in this issue. Click for larger view View full resolution Photo by Stelios Papadakis In the near future, Latai hopes to return to her ancestral home and continue the ultimate faivā of sea voyaging and celestial navigation. [End Page vii] After selecting this issue’s featured artist, I was thrilled to learn that the journal had also accepted Talei Luscia Mangioni’s peer-reviewed article “Confronting Australian Apathy: Latai Taumoepeau and the Politics of Performance in Pacific Climate Stewardship” (this issue, 32–62), which analyzes Taumoepeau’s artistry in more detail. [End Page viii] Click for larger view View full resolution The Last Resort, by Latai Taumoepeau, 2020. Performance, Biennale of Sydney, Cockatoo Island. Photo by Zan Wimberley. In this endurance performance installation, part of the series Stitching (Up) the Sea, Taumoepeau and her co-performer and relative Taliu Aloua channeled ceremonial Tongan practices while wearing brick sandals and worn-out hotel bathrobes emblazoned with the words “The Last Resort.” They proceeded to smash glass bottles and other refuse sourced from Sydney nightclubs. In an October 2020 dialogue with fellow artist Taloi Havini, Taumoepeau explained that her goal in the work, a commentary on the impact of climate change on the Pacific and its dangers to both human and marine life, was “to expose the relationship, the genealogy, between glass and islands and sand . . . that led to the ‘resort life’” (“The Last Resort: A Conversation,” e-flux 112 [October 2020]). Click for larger view View full resolution Ocean Island, Mine!, by Latai Taumoepeau, 2015. Performance, Carriageworks, Sydney. Photo by Sanja Simic. In Ocean Island, Mine!, also performed as part of AusDance’s Australian Dance Week, held 29 April–6 May 2017, Latai Taumoepeau relocated a 500-kilogram pile of ice from one end of the performance space to the other, scooping it up with a shovel and steadily carrying it bit by bit from point a to point b. As the performance description explains, with specific reference to phosphate mining in Banaba, “Back and forth, she works the open-cut mines of the past into the future of climate change; excavating the solid white rock into invisibility” (https://newacton.com.au/events/ocean-island-mine-by-latai-taumoepeau/). For more on this work, which is part of a genealogy of durational performance reflections from Taumoepeau’s suite Stitching (Up) the Sea, see Mangioni, this issue. Click for larger view View full resolution i-Land X-isle, by Latai Taumoepeau, 2013. Performance, Campbelltown Arts Centre, Sydney. Photo by Zan Wimberley. In i-Land X-isle, Taumoepeau suspended herself under a block of melting ice to draw attention to the impact of climate change on...

Forecasting Remote Atmospheric Responses to Decadal Kuroshio Stability Transitions

AbstractBased on observational estimates and global ocean eddy-resolving coupled retrospective initialized predictions, we show that Kuroshio Extension variability affects rainfall variability along the west coast of North America. We show that the teleconnection between the current undulations and downstream rainfall can lead to improved subseasonal to seasonal predictions of precipitation over California, and we demonstrate that capturing these teleconnections requires coupled systems with sufficient ocean resolution (i.e., eddy-resolving), especially over time scales longer than one season. The improved forecast skill is diagnosed in terms of 35 years of retrospective initialized ensemble forecasts with an ocean eddy-resolving and an ocean eddy-parameterized coupled model. Not only does the ocean eddy-resolving model show sensitivity to Kuroshio Extension variability in terms of western North America precipitation, but the ocean eddy-resolving forecasts also show improved forecast skill compared to the ocean eddy-parameterized model. The ocean eddy-parameterized coupled model shows no sensitivity to Kuroshio Extension variability. We also find near-decadal variability associated with a progression of a lower-tropospheric height dipole around the North Pacific and how these height anomalies lead to wind-driven Rossby waves that affect the eddy activity in the Kuroshio Extension with a time lag on the order of four years. This decadal-scale variability (~10 years) opens the possibility of multiyear predictability of western North American rainfall.

Decadal variability of the Kuroshio Extension: the response of the jet to increased atmospheric resolution in a coupled ocean\u2013atmosphere model

The Kuroshio Extension (KE) shifts between elongated and convoluted states on interannual to decadal time scales. The nature of this low frequency variability (LFV) is still under debate since it is known to be driven by intrinsic oceanic mechanisms, but it is also synchronized with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). In this analysis we present the results from two present-climate coupled simulations performed with the CMCC-CM2 model under the CMIP6 HighResMIP protocol and differing only by their atmospheric component resolution. The impact of increased atmospheric resolution on the KE LFV is assessed inspecting several aspects: the KE bimodality, the large-scale variability and the air–sea interactions. The KE LFV and the teleconnection mechanism that connects the KE and the PDO are well captured by both configurations. However, higher atmospheric resolution favors the occurrence of the elongated state and leads to a more realistic PDO representation. Moreover, both simulations qualitatively capture the signatures of atmosphere-driven and ocean-driven regimes over the North Pacific Ocean, even if the higher resolution induces an excessively strong ocean–atmosphere coupling that leads to an overestimation of the air–sea feedbacks. This work highlights that the small scale atmospheric variability (resolution lower than 1°) does not substantially contribute to improve the realism of the KE LFV, but causes significant differences in the air–sea interaction over the KE region likely related to the strengthening of the coupling. The eddy-permitting ocean resolution shared by both configurations is likely responsible for the degree of realism exhibited by the simulated KE LFV in the two analyzed simulations.

The GFDL Earth System Model Version 4.1 (GFDL‐ESM 4.1): Overall Coupled Model Description and Simulation Characteristics

AbstractWe describe the baseline coupled model configuration and simulation characteristics of GFDL's Earth System Model Version 4.1 (ESM4.1), which builds on component and coupled model developments at GFDL over 2013–2018 for coupled carbon‐chemistry‐climate simulation contributing to the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. In contrast with GFDL's CM4.0 development effort that focuses on ocean resolution for physical climate, ESM4.1 focuses on comprehensiveness of Earth system interactions. ESM4.1 features doubled horizontal resolution of both atmosphere (2° to 1°) and ocean (1° to 0.5°) relative to GFDL's previous‐generation coupled ESM2‐carbon and CM3‐chemistry models. ESM4.1 brings together key representational advances in CM4.0 dynamics and physics along with those in aerosols and their precursor emissions, land ecosystem vegetation and canopy competition, and multiday fire; ocean ecological and biogeochemical interactions, comprehensive land‐atmosphere‐ocean cycling of CO2, dust and iron, and interactive ocean‐atmosphere nitrogen cycling are described in detail across this volume of JAMES and presented here in terms of the overall coupling and resulting fidelity. ESM4.1 provides much improved fidelity in CO2 and chemistry over ESM2 and CM3, captures most of CM4.0's baseline simulations characteristics, and notably improves on CM4.0 in (1) Southern Ocean mode and intermediate water ventilation, (2) Southern Ocean aerosols, and (3) reduced spurious ocean heat uptake. ESM4.1 has reduced transient and equilibrium climate sensitivity compared to CM4.0. Fidelity concerns include (1) moderate degradation in sea surface temperature biases, (2) degradation in aerosols in some regions, and (3) strong centennial scale climate modulation by Southern Ocean convection.

Is interactive air sea coupling relevant for simulating the future climate of Europe?

The majority of regional climate change assessments for the Euro-CORDEX region is based on high resolution atmosphere models. These models use prescribed lower boundary conditions, such as sea surface temperatures (SST) from global ocean General Circulation Models (GCMs), that do not respond to changes simulated by the regional atmosphere model, thus lacking an important feedback to the atmosphere. However, research during the past decade indicated that the use of coupled atmosphere–ocean models can lead to significantly altered model solutions compared to standalone atmosphere models for the present day climate imposing some uncertainty on the widely used uncoupled future scenarios. We here present the first multi-model and multi scenario (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) ensemble of future climate change scenarios downscaled with a coupled atmosphere—ocean model in which sea surface temperature and sea ice fields are explicitly simulated by a coupled state-of-the-art high resolution ocean model and communicated to the atmosphere at 3-hourly time steps. Our ensemble generally confirms results of previous uncoupled ensembles over land areas implying that the coupling effect is restricted mainly to the coupled area and the adjacent coastal zone. By contrast, over the North Sea and Baltic Sea small scale processes point to important coupling effects that mediate the response to climate change and that can not be simulated by uncoupled models. Our results therefore impose general uncertainty on the usage of regional climate change data from uncoupled ensembles over marine areas such as for purposes of offshore wind or mussel farming, the planing of marine protected areas, and marine recreation along the coastal zone. It further sets in question the usage of uncoupled scenario data (such as Euro-CORDEX) to force high resolution ocean models. Comparing coupled and uncoupled hindcast simulations reveals that the coupling effect over land is most pronounced during the warm season when prescribed and modelled sea surface temperatures (SST) differ strongest. In addition, a generally weaker wind regime in summer damps the heat dispersion in the atmosphere so that air temperature anomalies can extent further over land compared to winter. Future projections are discussed under consideration of land-sea warming characteristics for selected climate indices as well as mean seasonal climate change. At the end of the century a clear land-sea pattern is seen in all scenarios with stronger warming over land than over open sea areas. On average land areas warm at a rate 1.5 times faster than areas over the open ocean. Over the coupled area, i.e. the North Sea and Baltic Sea tropical nights are impacted strongest and the Baltic Sea turns out to be a hot spot in future climate. This has been unrecognized in previous studies using high resolution atmosphere models with prescribed SSTs from global models which do not represent small scale ocean processes in the Baltic Sea adequately.

Regionally Coupled Atmosphere‐Ocean‐Marine Biogeochemistry Model ROM: 2. Studying the Climate Change Signal in the North Atlantic and Europe

AbstractClimate simulations for the North Atlantic and Europe for recent and future conditions simulated with the regionally coupled ROM model are analyzed and compared to the results from the MPI‐ESM. The ROM simulations also include a biogeochemistry and ocean tides. For recent climate conditions, ROM generally improves the simulations compared to the driving model MPI‐ESM. Reduced oceanic biases in the Northern Atlantic are found, as well as a better simulation of the atmospheric circulation, notably storm tracks and blocking. Regarding future climate projections for the 21st century following the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, MPI‐ESM and ROM largely agree qualitatively on the climate change signal over Europe. However, many important differences are identified. For example, ROM shows an SST cooling in the Subpolar Gyre, which is not present in MPI‐ESM. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, ROM Arctic sea ice cover is thinner and reaches the seasonally ice‐free state by 2055, well before MPI‐ESM. This shows the decisive importance of higher ocean resolution and regional coupling for determining the regional responses to global warming trends. Regarding biogeochemistry, both ROM and MPI‐ESM simulate a widespread decline in winter nutrient concentration in the North Atlantic of up to ~35%. On the other hand, the phytoplankton spring bloom in the Arctic and in the North‐Western Atlantic starts earlier, and the yearly primary production is enhanced in the Arctic in the late 21st century. These results clearly demonstrate the added value of ROM to determine more detailed and more reliable climate projections at the regional scale.

Impact of ocean resolution and mean state on the rate of AMOC weakening

We examine the weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in response to increasing CO_2 at different horizontal resolutions in a state-of-the-art climate model and in a small ensemble of models with differing resolutions. There is a strong influence of the ocean mean state on the AMOC weakening: models with a more saline western subpolar gyre have a greater formation of deep water there. This makes the AMOC more susceptible to weakening from an increase in CO_2 since weakening ocean heat transports weaken the contrast between ocean and atmospheric temperatures and hence weaken the buoyancy loss. In models with a greater proportion of deep water formation further north (in the Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian basin), deep-water formation can be maintained by shifting further north to where there is a greater ocean-atmosphere temperature contrast. We show that ocean horizontal resolution can have an impact on the mean state, and hence AMOC weakening. In the models examined, those with higher resolutions tend to have a more westerly location of the North Atlantic Current and stronger subpolar gyre. This likely leads to a greater impact of the warm, saline subtropical Atlantic waters on the western subpolar gyre resulting in greater dense water formation there. Although there is some improvement of the higher resolution models over the lower resolution models in terms of the mean state, both still have biases and it is not clear which biases are the most important for influencing the AMOC strength and response to increasing CO_2.

Effects of Spring–Neap Tidal Cycle on Spatial and Temporal Variability of Satellite Chlorophyll-A in a Macrotidal Embayment, Ariake Sea, Japan

We investigated the spatio-temporal variability of chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) and total suspended matter (TSM) associated with spring–neap tidal cycles in the Ariake Sea, Japan. Our study relied on significantly improved, regionally-tuned datasets derived from the ocean color sensor Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Aqua over a 16-year period (2002–2017). The results revealed that spring–neap tidal variations in Chl-a and TSM within this macrotidal embayment (the Ariake Sea) are clearly different regionally and seasonally. Generally, the spring–neap tidal variability of Chl-a in the inner part of the Ariake Sea was controlled by TSM for seasons other than summer, whereas it was controlled by river discharge for summer. On the other hand, the contribution of TSM to the variability of Chl-a was not large for two areas in the middle of Ariake Sea where TSM was not abundant. This study demonstrates that ocean color satellite observations of Chl-a and TSM in the macrotidal embayment offer strong advantages for understanding the variations during the spring–neap tidal cycle.

Sea Ice—Ocean Interactions in the Barents Sea Modeled at Different Resolutions

The Barents Sea is one of the most rapidly changing Arctic regions in terms of sea ice. As it is almost ice-free in summer, most recent changes in the Barents Sea have occurred in winter, with a reduction of about 50% of its March sea-ice area between 1979 and 2018. This sea-ice loss is clearly linked to an increase in the Atlantic Ocean heat transport, especially through the Barents Sea Opening, in the western part of the Barents Sea. In this study, we investigate the links between the March Barents sea-ice area and ocean heat transport at the Barents Sea Opening using seven different coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models, with at least two different horizontal resolutions for each model. These models follow the High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project protocol, and we focus on the historical record (1950-2014). We find that all models capture the anticorrelation between March sea-ice area and annual mean ocean heat transport in the Barents Sea. Furthermore, the use of an increased ocean resolution allows to better resolve the different ocean pathways into the Barents Sea and the Atlantic Water heat transport at the Barents Sea Opening (reduced transect). A higher ocean resolution also improves the strong water cooling at the sea-ice edge and further formation of warm intermediate Atlantic Water. However, the impact of a higher ocean resolution on the mean March Barents sea-ice area and ocean heat transport at the Barents Sea Opening (large transect) varies among models. A potential reason for a different effect of model resolution on ocean heat transport when considering a reduced or a large transect is that the Atlantic Water and Norwegian Coastal Current inflows are under-represented at lower ocean resolution. Finally, we do not find a systematic effect of resolution on the strength of the sea-ice area - ocean heat transport relationship.

On the impact of atmospheric vs oceanic resolutions on the representation of the sea surface temperature in the South Eastern Tropical Atlantic

Despite the efforts of the modelling community to improve the representation of the sea surface temperature (SST) over the South Eastern Tropical Atlantic, warm biases still persist. In this work we use four different configurations of the fully-coupled AWI Climate Model (AWI-CM) which allow us to gain physics-based insight into the role of the oceanic and atmospheric resolutions of the model in the regional distribution of the SST. Our results show that a sole refinement of the oceanic resolution reduces warm biases further than a single increase of the atmospheric component. An increased oceanic resolution is required (i) to simulate properly the Agulhas Current and its associated rings; (ii) to reinforce the northward-flowing Benguela Current and (iii) to intensify coastal upwelling. The best results are obtained when both resolutions are refined. However, even in that case, warm biases persist, reflecting that some processes and feedbacks are still not optimally resolved. Our results indicate that overheating is not due to insufficient upwelling, but rather due to upwelling of waters which are warmer than observations as a result of an erroneous representation of the vertical distribution of temperature. Errors in the representation of the vertical temperature profile are the consequence of a warm bias in the simulated climate state.

The Time-Scale-Dependent Response of the Wintertime North Atlantic to Increased Ocean Model Resolution in a Coupled Forecast Model

AbstractThis study uses initialized forecasts and climate integrations to evaluate the wintertime North Atlantic response to an increase of ocean model resolution from ~100 km [low-resolution ocean (LRO)] to ~25 km [high-resolution ocean (HRO)] in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Integrated Forecasting System (ECMWF-IFS). Importantly, the simulated impacts are time-scale dependent such that impacts in subseasonal and seasonal forecasts cannot be extrapolated to climate time scales. In general, mean biases are reduced in HRO relative to LRO configurations and the impact is increased at longer lead times. At subseasonal to seasonal lead times, surface heating anomalies over the Gulf Stream are associated with local increases to the poleward heat flux associated with transient atmospheric eddies. In contrast, surface heating anomalies in climate experiments are balanced by changes to the time-mean surface winds that resemble the steady response under linear dynamics. Some aspects of air–sea interaction exhibit a clear improvement with increased resolution at all lead times. However, it is difficult to identify the impact of increased ocean eddy activity in the variability of the overlying atmosphere. In particular, atmospheric blocking and the intensity of the storm track respond more strongly to mean biases and thus have a larger response at longer lead times. Finally, increased ocean resolution drives improvements to subseasonal predictability over Europe. This increase in skill seems to be a result of improvements to the Madden–Julian oscillation and its associated teleconnections rather than changes to air–sea interaction in the North Atlantic region.