Nuclear Deterrence Research Articles

Why People Commit Crimes: Theoretical Explanations

The reasons behind criminal behavior and the impacts on individual developmental outcomes are important research questions in the field of criminal psychology. Researchers often investigate the causes of individual criminal behavior by examining both individual characteristics and environmental factors. This study explores, from a theoretical perspective, why people engage in criminal activities. Four theories of human behavior seek to explain the decision-making process behind criminal actions. Among these, the rational choice theory stands out with its emphasis on cost-benefit analysis. This approach suggests that individuals commonly base their decisions on a weighing of potential costs and benefits. However, certain factors, like low self-control, can significantly disrupt one's ability to focus on the decision's elements, potentially causing an undue fixation on perceived benefits. Amidst the increasing complexity of human interactions, the social learning theory highlights the impact of delinquent individuals on the general populace. Factors such as media exposure, obedience to authority, and the loss of individual identity in group settings are shown to wield considerable influence. Delving into the intricacies of human personality and emotions, the trait-state approach zeroes in on individual disparities and adopts a dynamic perspective. Furthermore, contemporary law enforcement plays a significant role in maintaining public order, with punitive measures targeting offending conduct. This aligns with the deterrence theory's emphasis on the pivotal role of punishment and the perceived costs that individuals weigh when contemplating criminal acts.

Afterlife beliefs and obligation to obey the law in high adherence contexts: exploring connections among Malaysian youth

ABSTRACT Previous studies have linked religiosity to a variety of positive outcomes for young people. However, further investigation into the underlying mechanisms that drive this connection is necessary to facilitate these positive outcomes. Some studies have suggested that afterlife reward and punishment beliefs play a role in this connection, as they promote future-oriented thinking. Drawing on Deterrence Theory, this study proposes that afterlife reward and punishment beliefs may also strengthen the obligation to obey the law in youth, thereby avoiding deviant behaviours. As Islamic societies are among the most ardent in believing in the afterlife, this mechanism may be particularly relevant for Muslim youth. To test this hypothesis, data were collected from 303 university students in Malaysia. Confirmatory factor analysis supported the structural validity of the Malaysian version of the afterlife reward and punishment beliefs scale. Hierarchical regression analysis further revealed a positive correlation between afterlife reward and punishment beliefs and obligation to obey the law, with afterlife reward and punishment beliefs significantly explaining variance in obligation to obey the law even after accounting for Muslim religiosity. The study highlights limitations and provides suggestions for future research in this area.

Conditional restraint: Why the India-Pakistan Kargil War is not a case of nuclear deterrence

ABSTRACT In the 1999 Kargil War, India defended its territory from a Pakistani incursion but—in a departure from its historical behavior and standing war plans—chose not to expand the war with counter-attacks into Pakistan. Many observers attribute this restraint to nuclear deterrence, since India and Pakistan had become declared nuclear powers just a year earlier. In fact, India’s restraint was rooted not in deterrence, but specific strategic conditions. Those conditions no longer apply—and in a future conflict India may be encouraged to take especially risky and escalatory wartime action, which would pose an unprecedented test for nuclear deterrence.

Perubahan Paradigma Strategi Deterensi Nuklir India dan Pakistan

This paper discusses the shifting in the nuclear deterrence strategies of India and Pakistan. The conflict between India and Pakistan is marked by several high tension such as Kashmir dispute. The presence of nuclear weapons, which is pretty much significant and balanced possession between India and Pakistan make the situation more complicated and challenge the political stability in South Asia. The deterrent strategy of both parties has shifted from full deterrence, where nuclear ownership is to deter the opposing party, to creating second-strike and pre-emptive strike capabilities because they feel an increase in potential threats. India applies the no-first-use (NFU) doctrine, which was initially quite strict but has now become flexible considering the threat from Pakistan. Meanwhile, Pakistan tends to be a risk-taker by never declaring the NFU doctrine. The author uses nuclear deterrence theory and security dilemma to elaborate the shifting concept of a deterrent strategy by both parties. The rationality of both parties in nuclear deterrence must be the basis of nuclear doctrine, considering the massive impact if both sides engage in a nuclear war. Globally, there needs to be cooperation in mutual control not only in nuclear-armed countries but also in diplomacy among countries that do not have nuclear powers to create global peace. At least in the event of war, both countries do not use their nuclear power.

Strategic Clarity and Taiwanese Citizens’ Confidence in the US Security Commitment

President Biden’s remarks that his administration is willing to get involved militarily to defend Taiwan appear to be a significant deviation from Washington’s long-standing policy of “strategic ambiguity.” Critics warn that such a clear pledge is likely to bolster Taiwanese citizens’ confidence in America’s defense commitment, which may encourage Taipei’s pursuit of independence. This study uses deterrence theory with panel survey data to examine this argument. The results support critics’ concerns that Biden’s security pledges have increased Taiwanese citizens’ confidence in Washington’s security assurance. However, the public’s overall confidence declined between 2021 and 2022, which can be attributed to the shifting views of pro-independence citizens due to their concern about a Chinese leadership emboldened by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. After witnessing America’s security assistance to Ukraine, independence supporters may have recognized the uncertain nature of Washington’s security commitment and adjusted their expectations.

State-Terror and Tolerance of Deviance: A Cross-National Analysis Using World Values Survey Data

This study intends to extend the work of ecological predictors of tolerance of deviance to state terror. Utilizing a multilevel model and a cross-national survey of 125,129 respondents from 72 countries, this study finds that state terror and a worse perception of human rights correlates with a lower tolerance of deviance in line with Rational Choice Deterrence Theory (RCDC). The effect of state terror on tolerance of deviance is moderated by perception of human rights with those perceiving a worse respect for human rights in milieus of higher state terror are less open to deviance in line with RCDC. Further support for RCDC comes from those living in over policed neighborhoods being less open to deviance when they perceive a worse respect for human right. However, lower confidence in security services and greater interference by the same predicts greater tolerance of deviance. Support for Weberian legitimacy also comes from higher country level corruption, more terrorism incidents in a country, greater fear of crime and crime victimization of respondent or immediate family predicting greater justifiability of deviance.

Can an arms race promote stability? The inter-Korean qualitative arms race and US extended deterrence

PurposeThis paper aims to provide a case study of complex conflict management within the arms race on the Korean Peninsula. Exploring the complex nexus of nuclear weapons, asymmetry and a qualitative arms race, the study explains how the arms race between Seoul and Pyongyang has promoted stability on the Korean Peninsula.Design/methodology/approachPresenting the limits of arguments that the US security guarantee is the factor that saved the two Koreas from going to war again, this paper explores the utility of the inter-Korean arms race as a stabilizer that promotes indirect negotiations. While presenting Korean anomalies, this paper analyzes the three stages of the inter-Korean arms race – especially its nuclear weapons, its asymmetry and the nature of arms races – and provides extant explanations on the causes and consequences of the qualitative arms race. These key elements drive the states’ strategic motives.FindingsUsing the case of the inter-Korean qualitative arms race and US extended nuclear deterrence on the Korean Peninsula, the study shows the complexities of conflict management today. This paper identifies three contributing factors – US nuclear weapons, asymmetry and the qualitative characteristic of the arms race – to explain the enduring stability on the peninsula despite the arms race’s intensification. The paper finds that although US nuclear-extended deterrence plays a critical role, it does not capture the full context of the ongoing, dynamic inter-Korean arms race; a prolonged arms race between the two Koreas has become a new regularity; the qualitative characteristic of the inter-Korean arms race, which is driven by technological advancement, contributes to stability in the arms race; and as the constant mismatch in priority technologies becomes more severe, the changes to the existing asymmetry could increase instability.Originality/valueThis paper offers a diverse perspective to the literature on conflict management and captures the complexities of 21st-century conflict management. Through a thorough examination of the inter-Korean arms race, it brings readers’ attention to the nested dynamics within the arms race and shows how an intensifying arms race can promote stability. Furthermore, the paper explains the implications for potential instability – fueled by the comprehensive mix of a dynamic qualitative arms race and the US extended nuclear deterrence – in the Indo-Pacific region.

Irreversibility in nuclear arms control and disarmament law?

Abstract While irreversibility of nuclear arms control and disarmament measures can be supported by compliance with applicable legal norms, the existing treaty regulation has serious gaps: pertinent treaties are not universally applicable; limitations on missiles as important carriers of nuclear warheads have been abrogated; the strategic doctrines of nuclear weapons powers are not fully transparent, and while the latter may strengthen the effectiveness of nuclear deterrence, it also raises questions as to compliance with fundamental obligations to refrain from a threat or use of force and to settle international disputes by peaceful means. There are certain principles of general international law that can and should be used in international cooperation to overcome nuclear crisis situations and strengthen international security: fundamental norms regarding the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons and nuclear disarmament under strict and effective international control have an erga omnes character and are accepted and recognized by the international community of States as a whole. Furthermore, general rules of international responsibility are fully applicable in the law of nuclear arms control and disarmament. It is in this sense that irreversibility in nuclear arms control and disarmament is served by legal principles and rules, which require States to comply with existing obligations and to cooperate for the maintenance of peace and security.

Deterrence and Security： The Impact of Military Conflicts on Global Peace

Deterrence theory is one of the important theories of international relations research during the Cold War. From the birth of deterrence theory to today, its main meaning has developed from nuclear deterrence as the core to conventional deterrence. By studying the impact of the Gulf War on the US deterrence capability and the impact of the Russia-Ukrainian War on Russia's deterrence capability, this paper argues that military conflict is not only a test of deterrence capability, but also a shaping process of deterrence capability. In military conflict, a country's performance will affect its opponents and other countries' perception of its strength and will, thereby increasing or decreasing its deterrence capability. The United States established a strong conventional deterrence capability in the global scope through the Gulf War, which enabled the United States to obtain a large number of potential allies and national interests after the Cold War. Russia's mediocre performance in the Russia-Ukrainian War is undermining its conventional deterrence that it established after the Cold War through military reform and a series of military actions, and its geo-security environment is deteriorating due to its reduced deterrence capability. Based on this, countries should correctly assess their own and other countries' strength and will, avoid overestimating or underestimating their own or others' deterrence capabilities, and thus avoid military adventures. At the same time, they should also abide by international laws and rules, respect other countries' sovereignty and interests, in order to achieve lasting peace and common security.

“Like aspirin for arthritis”: A qualitative study of conditional cyber‐deterrence associated with police crackdowns on the dark web

AbstractResearch summaryCrackdowns are law enforcement strategies based on the principles of deterrence theory, which stipulates that offenders are rational actors who will refrain from crime if perceived risks are higher than perceived benefits. Studies have shown that the effects of police street drug crackdowns are mostly short termed and followed by considerable displacement. In the early 2010s, an important part of illicit drug trades moved online to cryptomarkets, and law enforcement agencies have responded by engaging in online drug crackdowns. In this study, we focus on the perceptions of dark web users in order to determine, from a qualitative “data‐driven” perspective, whether police online crackdowns may have a cyber‐deterrent effect by analyzing 1796 forum posts. Our results show that these events trigger psychological and practical consequences that participants claim to have a conditional, although minor, deterrent effect. In the majority of cases, dark web users claimed to engage in several forms of spatial and tactical displacement.Policy implicationsOur study suggests that police crackdowns on the dark web have limited, short‐term effectiveness in curbing illicit activities. It proposes that innovative policing approaches such as problem‐oriented policing and “pulling levers/focused deterrence” strategies, which involve identifying key actors and engaging with them, be potentially extended to the dark web. While this approach is promising, it emphasizes the need for further research to assess its efficacy in the online realm, as it is a largely uncharted territory for law enforcement.

Tax Collection Strategies and Compliance of Residential Rental Income Earners in Kasarani Sub-County, Kenya

Financial freedom is one of the goals economies dream to achieve in both developed and developing nations through taxation. However, non-compliance according to previous literature hindered tax authorities from achieving the set tax collection targets. Drop in National Residential rental income tax collection was reported in the year 2020 by Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development in Kenya. Similarly, the Country’s tax authority data revealed reduction in tax collection for Kasarani Sub County in the year 2020/2021. The key objective of this research was to investigate influence that tax collection strategies have on the compliance of residential rental income earners in Kasarani sub-county in Kenya. The specific objectives aimed at determining the influence of taxpayers trust building, Knowledge & tax awareness, modern technology adoption and effective tax law enforcement strategies on the compliance of residential property owners. The research was anchored on the social exchange, reasoned action, technology acceptance and economic deterrence theories. Descriptive research design was applied to evaluate the influence of independent variables on the dependent ones. A population of 871 property owners was considered with 274 respondents obtained from population target in aid of stratified sample model whereas questionnaires were applied in collecting primary data. Analysis of data was run on multiple regression model supported with descriptive techniques. Validity test together with reliability analysis was done using Analysis of Variance and Cronbach Alpha models. Multicollinearity, normality, heteroscedasticity, and linearity tests were undertaken for diagnostic purpose. Study findings indicated that tax payer’s trust building (t=3.399, p<0.05), knowledge & awareness campaign (t=5.732, p<0.05), modern technology (t=2.897, p<0.05) and effective tax law enforcement strategy (t=4.795, p<0.05) had positive and significant effect on the compliance of Residential Rental Income earners in Kasarani Sub County. The study concluded that mutual trust building aided mobilization of public support for tax collection agenda prompting the initially skeptic residential rental income taxpayers to embrace tax compliance, that tax knowledge & awareness strategy positively affected tax compliance, tax collection and reporting through the modern technology based systems proved to significantly support tax compliance and that the tax law enforcement measure is very strategic in influencing tax income collection. Study recommended use of competitive communication skills as a trust building window in formal and informal interactions between the taxpayer and agency on matters tax compliance. The study recommended the training of taxpayers on use of technology and expansion of its tax labs centers networks close at the Sub County level for easy access.

The indelicate balance of terror: Nuclear deterrence stability in a world of three nuclear superpowers

Albert Wohlstetter’s seminal essay of the early Cold War years, “The Delicate Balance of Terror,” calls for revisiting in the current climate of geopolitics and military technology. The possible emergence of China as a near peer competitor with the United States and Russia in strategic nuclear forces changes the dynamics of nuclear deterrence, arms control and strategic stability in Asia and globally. In addition, future deterrence stability will also be challenged by changes in technology, including hypersonic weapons, improved missile defense capabilities, competition in the cyber and space domains, and the uncertain impacts of game changers such as artificial intelligence and nanotechnology. As well, containment of nuclear weapons spread cannot be guaranteed, given the dissatisfaction of some existing and aspiring nuclear weapons states with the present international order.

HİNDİSTAN’IN “SOĞUK BAŞLANGIÇ” SİYASETİ VE PAKİSTAN’IN İLK ATAK TEHDİTİ: NUKLEER CAYDIRICILIĞIN DEĞERLENDİRİLMESİ

Pakistan and India are the two countries facing nuclear deterrence from each other as they have had a conflict since 1947. This creates a threat to South Asian regions Pakistan is using nuclear deterrence in order to discourage Indian conventional dominance. On the other hand, as India does not have the ability to change the quality of being at a competitive advantage of it is conventional to finish the Kashmir war with Pakistan, India established the doctrine called –Cold Start Doctrine- in 2004, which is an assaultive doctrine. According to this doctrine, India can militarize in a quick way and use small retaliatory attacks on Pakistan without trespassing into their nuclear part. Cold Start gives an advantage to India for being more capable of a conventional mobilization when acting together with their Air Force. This might escalate the risk of nuclear war in the subcontinent. In this paper, the strategic balance of Pakistan and India is compared. It also examines how the Cold Start doctrine of India affected Pakistan's nuclear weapon policy and Pakistan moved toward 'First Strike Use'. The nuclear balance is explained by assessing the development of Pakistan's atomic weapons store and India's nuclear arsenal.

The self-reported psychosocial and legal factors contributing to drink and drug driving

Drug driving is recognised as a major road safety problem in many countries. In Australia, the primary response to this problem involved the adoption of roadside drug testing (RDT), which was modelled on the policies and practices used to conduct random breath testing (RBT) for alcohol. However, there remain important differences in the way that RDT and RBT are conducted, which might produce differential effects on drug and drink driving behaviour. In addition, various psychosocial factors are known to influence the two behaviours. Thus, there is a need to investigate the relative influence of legal and psychosocial factors on drug driving and explore how they may be similar or different to drink driving. Accordingly, this study utilised Deterrence Theory and Akers' Social Learning Theory, augmented by measures of dependence and a range of psychosocial factors, to examine the factors associated with self-reported drink and drug driving. An online survey was completed by 1394 licensed drivers from the three most populous states in Australia: Queensland, New South Wales and Victoria. Self-reported drink and drug driving became more likely as level of dependence increased. In relation to legal factors, direct experience of avoiding detection was the strongest predictor of self-reported drink and drug driving. Among the psychosocial factors, a significant positive relationship was found between holding favourable attitudes toward both drink driving and drug driving and self-reported behaviours. The findings suggest that applying legal sanctions in isolation without addressing the psychosocial rewards and punishments for the behaviours is not sufficient to reduce drug or drink driving. Future research should identify countermeasures that integrate deterrence and psychosocial principles in order to reduce these risky driving behaviours.

Effects of Economic Deterrence Theory and Environmental Regulation on Tax Evasion: Evidence from Energy Sector

Environmental regulation is the responsibility of individuals, corporations, and other entities to prevent environmental damage or improve the tarnished environment. The Environmental law of every country works to protect the natural resources of land, water, air, and soil. There are research evidence that environmental regulation influences Corporate taxes. Economic deterrence theory acted as deterrent to threats of punishment for unwanted or illegal behavior. The fundamental concept of the theory is deterring the taxpayers into compliance by the risk of audit, penalty, etc. The objective of the study is to analyze the impact of economic deterrence theory and environmental regulation on corporate tax evasion, particularly petroleum profit taxes in Nigeria. The components of Economic deterrence theory (tax agents, tax complexity, tax knowledge) and environmental regulations are the independent variables and corporate tax evasion particularly PPT is the dependent variable of the study. It is quantitative research based on primary data which was collected from the oil and gas companies’ representatives. Structural Equation Modelling techniques were applied, and the outcome of the research is a positive and significant relationship between tax agents, tax complexity, tax knowledge, and environmental regulations on corporate tax evasion. The result further shows a positive but non-significant relationship between tax audits and perceived petroleum profit tax evasion. The study draws the attention of policymakers to formulate environmental regulations that are more robust, simple, and flexible, to reduce adverse effects of environmental damage on the economic growth and development of oil and gas-producing countries.

Oppenheimer: The Man, the Movie and Nuclear Dread

Christopher Nolan’s film Oppenheimer, centred on the eponymous American physicist who steered the Manhattan Project to completion of the first nuclear bomb in 1945, captures scientists reaching their own destructive capability at its most terrible. It prompts viewers to wonder why, over the course of nearly 80 years, Oppenheimer’s nuclear dread hasn’t been embraced with greater alarm, and informed praetorian critiques haven’t been entertained more openly. The short answer is that nuclear deterrence has worked. But the movie comes at a moment when it is being tested. With its spectacular suggestions of nuclear destruction and its intense examination of early anxieties about nuclear weapons that have never been satisfactorily addressed, Oppenheimer prompts a crucial question: whether mutual deterrence, shorn of arms control and regular diplomacy and under the pressure of a major war involving nuclear powers, can still work.

Challenging Nuclear Bromides

Despite the universal implications of nuclear weapons for humanity, broad knowledge of nuclear policy is curiously absent from the public sphere and even among many senior figures in government. Nuclear strategists have nourished the belief that the principles of nuclear deterrence are so esoteric as to exempt them from non-expert scrutiny, creating an intellectual vacuum within which a number of fallacies about nuclear strategy have taken root. These fallacies in turn find expression in the configuration of several states’ nuclear postures, from the number of warheads posited as necessary for deterrence to the selection of adversary targets. Puncturing the myth of complexity that surrounds nuclear policy is a necessary starting point to assess its more questionable features. This essay evaluates some of the prevailing tenets of nuclear strategy to expose for non-experts the many misconceptions that shape the major powers’ strategic postures.

“When you leave your country, this is what you’re in for”: experiences of structural, legal, and gender-based violence among asylum-seeking women at the Mexico-U.S. border

BackgroundRecent U.S. immigration policy has increasingly focused on asylum deterrence and has been used extensively to rapidly deport and deter asylum-seekers, leaving thousands of would-be asylum-seekers waiting indefinitely in Mexican border cities, a large and growing proportion of whom are pregnant and parenting women. In the border city of Tijuana, Mexico, these women are spending unprecedented durations waiting under unsafe humanitarian conditions to seek safety in the U.S, with rising concerns regarding increases in gender-based violence (GBV) among this population during the COVID-19 pandemic. Given existing gaps in evidence, we aimed to describe the lived experiences of GBV in the context of asylum deterrence policies among pregnant and parenting asylum-seeking women at the Mexico-U.S. border.MethodsWithin the community-based Maternal and Infant Health for Refugee & Asylum-Seeking Women (MIHRA) study, we conducted semi-structured qualitative interviews with 30 asylum-seeking women in Tijuana, Mexico between June and December 2022. Eligible women had been pregnant or postpartum since March 2020, were 18–49 years old, and migrated for the purposes of seeking asylum in the U.S. Drawing on conceptualizations of structural and legal violence, we conducted a thematic analysis of participants’ experiences of GBV in the context of asylum deterrence policies and COVID-19.ResultsPregnant and parenting asylum-seeking women routinely faced multiple forms of GBV perpetuated by asylum deterrence policies at all stages of migration (pre-migration, in transit, and in Tijuana). Indefinite wait times to cross the border and inadequate/unsafe shelter exacerbated further vulnerability to GBV. Repeated exposure to GBV contributed to poor mental health among women who reported feelings of fear, isolation, despair, shame, and anxiety. The lack of supports and legal recourse related to GBV in Tijuana highlighted the impact of asylum deterrence policies on this ongoing humanitarian crisis.ConclusionAsylum deterrence policies undermine the health and safety of pregnant and parenting asylum-seeking women at the Mexico-U.S. border. There is an urgent need to end U.S. asylum deterrence policies and to provide respectful, appropriate, and adequately resourced humanitarian supports to pregnant and parenting asylum-seeking women in border cities, to reduce women’s risk of GBV and trauma.

Kishida’s Dual Track Nuclear Diplomacy

The international security environment is worsening with Russia’s invasion in Ukraine, the worsening strategic confrontation between the United States and China, and North Korea’s strengthening nuclear capability. In this context, the role of nuclear weapons is once again highlighted, while calls for nuclear abolition are growing stronger, dividing the international community. Japan pursues a world without nuclear weapons based on the legacy of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, while maintaining extended nuclear deterrence by the United States as an important element of its security policy. These positions may seem contradictory at first glance. However, to fulfill the responsibility to protect its citizens from the nuclear risks they face in the short term and to pursue the ideal of a world without nuclear weapons in the long term, without stopping there, are both indispensable for Japan, and the international community must assume these responsibilities. Japan should lead in this pursuit.

NÜKLEER GÜCÜN ENERJİ GÜVENLİĞİNDEKİ ROLÜ

With the increase of globalization, the problem of a country is no longer limited within its own borders but has begun to affect other states as well. With this increasing globalization and population, the rising energy demand has also increased the tendency towards nuclear energy, but we can say that the desire for this nuclear power is an indisputable power demand for the states. The role of nuclear power in energy security is huge, because of the irresistible desire for this power. When security concerns come into play for the states, diplomatic negotiations may not be the only way. This is where the deterrence action comes into play, and the combination of nuclear power with the idea of deterrence is a golden trump card for the states. Furthermore, this trump is such a trump card that it is a deterrent force even against US, PRC and RF which are the hegemonic powers in today's world. In this study, the relation between being nuclear power and security to be analyzed, the concept of the security and the energy security to be discussed and the role of the nuclear deterrence to be explained within the history of the treaties.