Strategic Clarity and Taiwanese Citizens’ Confidence in the US Security Commitment

Abstract

President Biden’s remarks that his administration is willing to get involved militarily to defend Taiwan appear to be a significant deviation from Washington’s long-standing policy of “strategic ambiguity.” Critics warn that such a clear pledge is likely to bolster Taiwanese citizens’ confidence in America’s defense commitment, which may encourage Taipei’s pursuit of independence. This study uses deterrence theory with panel survey data to examine this argument. The results support critics’ concerns that Biden’s security pledges have increased Taiwanese citizens’ confidence in Washington’s security assurance. However, the public’s overall confidence declined between 2021 and 2022, which can be attributed to the shifting views of pro-independence citizens due to their concern about a Chinese leadership emboldened by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. After witnessing America’s security assistance to Ukraine, independence supporters may have recognized the uncertain nature of Washington’s security commitment and adjusted their expectations.