Correlates of South Korean Public Opinion on Nuclear Proliferation

Abstract

What explains South Korean public opinion about nuclear weapons development? Despite the US security commitment, a majority of South Koreans consistently support independent nuclear weapons development. To solve this puzzle, we investigate the mechanisms of security threats and security commitment under which individuals develop their opinion on nuclear proliferation. An original survey of 1,988 South Korean adults shows empirically supported correlates of South Korean public opinion on nuclear proliferation. First, public support for proliferation is largely shaped by external security threats: nuclear weapons threats from North Korea and China, and even superior nuclear latency threats from Japan. Second, public opposition to proliferation is shaped by the perceived credibility of the US security commitment but not by the perceived effectiveness. The results provide important insights for understanding the South Korean public opinion on nuclear proliferation and for designing a nonproliferation policy tailored to South Korea.