Nuclear Ambitions Research Articles

THE REPRESENTATION OF IRAN AND UNITED STATES IN DONALD TRUMP’S SPEECH: A CRITICAL DISCOURSE ANALYSIS

Speech plays an important role to shape public perception as it is delivered by an influential figure and reflects the points of view of its speaker. This study discusses a speech delivered by the United States President, Donald Trump, which discusses the conflict between Iran and America. This study was conducted to reveal the representation of Iran and the United States in one of Donald Trump’s speeches. The method used in this study is the descriptive qualitative method. The data in this study are in the form of words, phrases, clauses, and sentences that indicate the position of Iran and the United States taken from the speech transcript from the official website of The White House. Data were analyzed under the framework of Van Djik’s Socio-Cognitive Approach, consisting of text, socio-cognitive, and social context. Based on the analysis, it can be concluded that Iran is described as a country that has nuclear ambitions and acts of terror that support the existence of terrorists. On the other hand, America is described as having an invincible power. At a socio-cognitive level, Donald Trump is considered a knowledgeable figure on his country’s political condition because he knows the weaknesses of Iran and can properly take every decision. Donald Trump also has the authority as a President to make The United States and the countries of the world can work together for peace world. Thus, from the level of social context, countries in the world support the actions taken by America and are very alarming about what Iran has done. The finding suggests that the Socio-cognitive approach is practical to analyze the representation of an issue in speech reflected in linguistics expression and the discourse structure.

Iran and Israel: The Inevitable War?

Abstract This article reviews the ascendance of Iran in Middle East politics, the Iranian nuclear program, and the strategic implications of Iranian aspirations, which all increase the likelihood of direct armed conflict between Israel and Iran. It concludes that Iran’s nuclear and hegemonic ambitions remain uncurbed. Whatever efforts at “regime change” were made were unsuccessful, and Iran remains undeterred. Therefore, the likelihood of direct armed conflict between Israel and Iran is great.

‘Despite the special bonds that tie us’: Portugal, Brazil, and the South Atlantic in the late Cold War

ABSTRACT As the Cold War entered the mid-1980s, concerns over the Brazilian nuclear programme lingered on through the global stage. In this context, Brazil’s 1986 proposal for a Zone of Peace and Cooperation in the South Atlantic (ZOPACAS) emerged as an opportunity to recast the country’s external profile; yet, unexpected reservations emerged from the unlikeliest of its partners, Portugal. This article argues that while Portugal’s initial positioning was fuelled by broader Western concerns, including misperceptions over Brazil’s nuclear ambitions, the official predisposition towards such a project eventually shifted, following changes in Portugal, the region, and the world.

The Ethics of Economic Sanctions: Why Just War Theory is Not the Answer

On 24 December 2017, the UN Security Council imposed its toughest sanctions yet on North Korea. The measures, intended to thwart nuclear ambitions, are some of the most extensive sanctions imposed in recent times. They place severe restrictions on the export of crude oil and refined petroleum to that state, ban the export of arms, dual use equipment, rocket fuel, natural gas, luxury goods and financial services, ban the import of coal, iron, gold, seafood and textiles from North Korea, and include asset freezes and travel bans for targeted individuals. Economic sanctions raise serious moral issues, not least because if properly enforced they can cause significant harm to their targets. How should we assess their moral permissibility? Several authors have pointed out analogies between economic sanctions and war and then applied the just war principles (just cause, proportionality, etc.) to the problem. This approach has faced little critical scrutiny. I argue that the straightforward application of just war principles to sanctions is misguided. There is a significant difference between war and economic sanctions: war is constituted by bombing, shooting or stabbing but economic sanctions are constituted by refusing to trade. While there is a strong pro tanto duty to not bomb, shoot or stab individuals, there is no comparable pro tanto duty to trade. That does not mean sanctions are always morally permissible, only that the moral issues involved are very different. We have no reason to believe that moral principles developed to govern war are also appropriate for governing sanctions. This approach to the ethics of economic sanctions ought to be abandoned.

Aligning missions: nuclear technical assistance, the IAEA, and national ambitions in Pakistan

ABSTRACT Drawn from the archives of the International Atomic Energy Agency, the British National Archives, and other sources, the present essay analyzes nuclear technical assistance in central Asia, focusing largely on Pakistan. It discusses collaborations with American and British institutions in the 1960s and later efforts to work under the auspices of the IAEA. The essay suggests that the IAEA’s mission in the 1960s and early 1970s, namely its leaders’ desire to demonstrate the relevance of the IAEA in economic development, aligned with Pakistan’s stated goals of constructing a robust reactor program. Rather than see technical assistance solely as a donor/recipient binary relationship, the essay encourages us to consider the mutuality of interests between a major international organization and a budding nuclear program. Archival documents suggest that the IAEA provided the endorsement for a major nuclear program for electricity production that Pakistan was unable to find with other partners.

Iranian diplomatic tools in the Face of International Pressure

This study aims to clarify the nature of Iranian diplomacy, its position and its role with regard to managing this file, and the position of some countries in the region and the great powers regarding the Iranian nuclear position. In order to reach the desired results of the study, the researcher followed the following scientific approaches, namely: The historical research method by tracing the beginnings of the Iranian nuclear file (from 1952 until reaching the final agreement in 2015), the researcher also followed the analytical approach that relies on describing and analyzing the phenomenon and the developments that accompanied the development of the Iranian nuclear file, he also followed the decision-making approach by employing the elements of Iranian political decision-making and the role of Iranian political institutions in taking the appropriate decision regarding the Iranian nuclear file. Among the results of the study was that Iran, through the (carpet weaving) and (evasive) diplomacy in its nuclear negotiations with the superpowers, was able to achieve its revolutionary goals and build its nuclear project even if it was a peaceful one and avoid reaching the stage of using the military option by the superpowers, this diplomacy has paid off by achieving positive results that serve Iran. Iran was also able to prove its position and position on the world map and to prove that it is a country with a strategic will to reach its nuclear ambitions, and Iran has been able to resist all threats and temptations in order to continue its nuclear program and forcing the superpowers (5 + 1) to surrender to her demands at the end. Keywords: Iranian diplomatic tools, International Pressure, Iranian nuclear position, Iranian political decision-making DOI : 10.7176/JLPG/101-20 Publication date :September 30th 2020

A strong and united Europe in the common foreign and security policy

We live in a changing and increasingly challenging world. The arc of insecurity around our borders to the south, the ongoing conflict in Syria, Iran’s nuclear ambitions, the Ukraine conflict and also a more assertive Russia to the east pose huge foreign and security policy challenges for the European Union. To address these challenges, we need a united EU foreign and security policy that is fit for purpose. The Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) has vast untapped potential – I will address some of the changes we need to make to unlock it.

A quest for the Arabian atom? Geopolitics, security, and national identity in the nuclear energy programs in the Middle East

Nuclear energy programs are currently under formalization in countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), with the first power plants in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) due to be operational in 2020, and Saudi Arabia's program under development. A political-economic narrative stresses potential benefits such as the diversification of energy sources, the centralization/maintenance of power in the energy supply sector, and the preservation of carbon fuel reserves for export purposes. However, a narrow justification renders the analysis of the nuclear push incomplete, as it is not specific to the nuclear option: i.e., the benefits mentioned apply to other types of alternative energies such as the (relatively) clean options of solar and wind. Economic or domestic considerations might actually be less dominant than geopolitical ones in GCC countries. By analyzing nuclear legacies in the region, this paper highlights the geopolitical considerations behind the nuclear programs of GCC countries, in particular Saudi Arabia and the UAE. The rise of the nuclear energy option in the GCC region coincides with the resurrection of the nuclear program in Iran in the early 2000s. It is linked, in terms of evolution and discourse, to geopolitical rivalry and posturing as well as to the rising tensions in the region, at least in the case of the nuclear ambitions of Saudi Arabia. Despite the political and environmental vulnerabilities of the region, as well as the region-specific risks associated with nuclear power production, nuclear energy seems to be a stable choice in the energy mix policies of these countries.

The US-North Korean asymmetrical security dilemma: Past the point of nuclear no return?

The bulk of literature on the security dilemma has examined the phenomenon within the context of rivalry between great powers of roughly equal strength (for instance, the United States-Soviet nuclear arms race). Yet no study has examined the implications of power asymmetry between a strong power and a weak one when they are facing the security dilemma in their interaction. This manuscript shall examine how the asymmetry of interaction in the United States-North Korean security dilemma has presented repeated obstacles for the United States in seeking the denuclearization of North Korea. The asymmetry of their rivalry has significant implications for how Washington and Pyongyang view one another in their interaction. This asymmetry has created challenges for Washington as well as Pyongyang, as illustrated through this empirical case study’s analysis of how successive United States White House administrations since 1993 have responded to North Korea’s nuclear ambitions. In this regard, it is possible the asymmetry of their interaction has become so deeply internalized that North Korea is, effectively, past a “point of no return” insofar as its nuclear program is concerned.

“We Are Not a Nonproliferation Agency”: Henry Kissinger's Failed Attempt to Accommodate Nuclear Brazil, 1974–1977

In the aftermath of India's first nuclear explosion in 1974, U.S. officials concluded that Brazil posed a growing proliferation risk, and they proposed to target Brazil with a new set of nonproliferation policies that included the denial of fuel-cycle technologies. However, Secretary of State Henry Kissinger expressed doubt that such an approach would curb Brazilian nuclear ambitions. Pushing back against influential voices in the U.S. Congress, the State Department, and the U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency, Kissinger argued that Brazil should be allowed to proceed with its plans to master the nuclear fuel cycle in exchange for U.S. assistance and new nonproliferation commitments. He justified this attitude on the grounds of alliance politics (Brazil was too important a pillar of U.S. Cold War policy in Latin America) and the interests of key domestic constituencies (U.S. private companies eyed Brazil's burgeoning nuclear industry). The Brazilian government responded well to Kissinger's approach and would have struck a deal if the transition to the Carter administration had not rendered the bargain untenable.

THE DANGEROUS OUTSIDER: HISTORICIZING AND INTERROGATING THE NON-NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION TREATY (NPT)

The Non-Nuclear Proliferation Treaty (NPT) which is one of the world’s most widely adopted security conventions, which also proved to be one of the most controversial treaty. Its provisions define the core bargain between those few Nuclear weapon states and numerous Non-Nuclear weapon states. The paper examines the NPT and undertakes an excursus on the dangers posed to the international nuclear control effort by the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK). Using secondary sources of information, the paper examines the NPT by tracing its historical basis. This enabled the study to interrogate the NPT, in spite of its major achievements, questions and criticisms are being raised about the implementation of the NPT and its overall strength. The past years have seen a series of efforts by multilateral institutions to enforce the treaty by combining restrictive measures and proposals for long-term arrangements. These efforts have not yielded results so far. The existing Nuclear Weapon States (NWS) are not required by the treaty to give up nuclear weapons but rather to negotiate in good faith. This has questioned the credibility of the nuclear states to press others to drop their nuclear ambitions. More ominous still, is the risk of the qualitative escalation of proliferation of nations following North Korea’s withdrawal and series of test. The findings of the study reveal that the potential danger posed by North Korea are in threefold; firstly, if there is war in the Korean peninsula it could use nuclear weapons against its neighbors. Secondly, North Korea could help other states build a nuclear reactor that could produce materials for nuclear weapon. And lastly, North Korea’s nuclear programme could breakdown the international regime intended to stop the spread of nuclear weapons. The paper concludes that the case of North Korea has proved that arms control by example is an important adjunct to specific nonproliferation treaties and cooperative measures. Although it cannot by itself stop states or leaders determined to violate an international agreement or tacit understanding, it can enhance the moral authority of the major powers to press others to drop their nuclear ambitions. 
 Efanodor-Obeten, O. H. | Department of Political Science and Public Administration, Edo University Iyamho, Edo State, Nigeria

The Warsaw Pact Reconsidered: International Relations in Eastern Europe, 1955–1969. by Laurien Crump, New York: Routledge, 2015. 322 pp. $168.00.

<i>The Warsaw Pact Reconsidered: International Relations in Eastern Europe, 1955–1969</i>. by Laurien Crump, New York: Routledge, 2015. 322 pp. $168.00.

Formation Mechanisms of Stalinist Oil-Shale Mining and Industrial Towns in East Estonia: Soviet Nuclear Needs and Local Ambitions

Planning of oil-shale mining and industrial towns Kohtla-Järve, Jõhvi, Sillamäe, Ahtme, Sompa, Kukruse, Kiviõli, Kohtla-Nõmme, and Viivikonna was caused by Soviet Union’s need for mineral resources, nuclear arms race, army, industry, and economy. East Estonian region gained strategic importance for the Soviet Union already in 1940. Although these towns were planned mostly by nonlocal architects and stately architectural firms, for instance, Stalinist central gridlines and central urban ensembles of Kohtla-Järve and Sillamäe were designed under the guidance of local architect Harald Arman. As a head of the Department of Architecture of the Estonian SSR, he processed both masterplans and construction plans of those towns within ambitious planning of oil-shale region during the mid-1940s and early-1950s. Those factors established urban planning principles and a pattern of East Estonian oil-shale mining and industrial towns.

More than a Historical Sidenote: The Nuclear Ambitions of the Shah of Iran

Scholarly work on nuclear proliferation tends to relegate the atomic aspirations of the Shah to the role of a framing device for the nuclear ambitions of the Islamic Republic of Iran. This approach is lacking, as it overlooks a large body of primary source material which portends to an alarming interest in, and potential movement towards nuclear weapons on the part of the Iranian ruler. This article will examine whether the Shah took any concrete steps towards developing nuclear weapons. In arguing that Mohammad Reza Pahlavi did so, two arguments are made. Firstly, that the Shah’s nuclear energy programme, when completed, would have allowed for nuclear weapons to be developed. Secondly, there were multiple efforts by the Shah to procure weapon systems which are key in a functioning nuclear deterrent.

Maritime Interdiction of North Korean Ships under UN Sanctions

To be effective in shaping state conduct, the liberalism and idealism that informs public international law must contend with geopolitical realities and the role of power in the international system. David D. Caron was unafraid to address this dichotomy. His work bridged epistemic communities and offered concrete approaches to some of the most vexing international problems. Caron’s work on radioactive waste and nuclear weapons at sea, for example, manifests a profound understanding of the threats posed by the proliferation of nuclear weapons and illicit nuclear materials in the oceans, and how international law reduces these ghastly perils. By providing boundaries for state behavior and fashioning a stability of expectations, international law deepens military and environmental security, and thereby reduces geopolitical risks. Inspired by the contributions of Caron and Harry Scheiber in exploring international law as a tool for addressing the threat of nuclear weapons and material at sea, this Article demonstrates how the legal process is the best tool available, albeit an imperfect one, to counter North Korea’s maritime proliferation of nuclear weapons and technology. The nuclear weapons program of the People’s Democratic Republic of Korea (DPRK) emerged within a complex regional political reality. Protected by U.S. extended deterrence, the Republic of Korea (ROK) has prospered for nearly seventy years despite lying directly under the guns of North Korea, which is enabled by China and Russia to serve as a cudgel to oppose American presence in the region. The DPRK detonated its first nuclear device in 1993, challenging the U.S. nuclear security umbrella and opening the specter of nuclear proliferation. If the United States and ROK actively punish North Korea with military force, North Korea likely would lash out in all directions. If they relent and accept the DPRK into the nuclear club, the consequences could prove equally deadly. International law lies within this dilemma as the only credible option for containing the rogue state’s nuclear ambitions. The Charter of the United Nations (UN) and the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) operate in tandem for this purpose. The Charter may be considered a constitution for the world; UNCLOS has been called the constitution for the oceans. These seminal treaties work together in a powerful way to restrain North Korea’s nuclear program. Specifically, the UN Security Council has invoked its authority in Chapter VII of the Charter to address threats to the peace by harnessing the legal competence of flag state, port state, and coastal state authority reflected in UNCLOS to strangle North Korea’s access to oceanic trade, crippling its economy and undermining its ability to spread nuclear material and weapons. The struggle to develop and enforce international rules to stop North Korea’s nuclear program is a story still unfolding. But decades of progress in international law and state practice have combined with tighter sanctions by the Security Council to dramatically cripple North Korea’s ability to develop and share nuclear weapons and supporting material and technology. The consequences of failure are genuinely terrifying, as even a single nuclear detonation anywhere in the world would prove catastrophic to global economic and political stability.

Dual-use distinguishability: How 3D-printing shapes the security dilemma for nuclear programs

ABSTRACTAdditive manufacturing is being adopted by nuclear programmes to improve production capabilities, yet its impact on strategic stability remains unclear. This article uses the security dilemma to assess incentives for arms racing as the emerging technology becomes integrated into nuclear supply chains. Innovations sow the ground for competition by making it easier to produce weapons and harder to distinguish civil from military motives. But additive manufacturing could still mature into an asset by revealing greater information about nuclear aspirants. Beyond the nuclear realm, the article refines offense-defence theory to explain how changes in non-military technology shape the practice of deception.

Leveraging towards restraint: Nuclear hedging and North Korea's shifting reference points during the agreed framework and the Six-Party Talks

AbstractThe emergence of new nuclear aspirants has posed a great threat to the post-Cold War global non-proliferation regime. These states have adopted a nuclear hedging strategy that has been deemed both strategically risky and politically difficult to maintain. Yet, hedging has not automatically resulted in nuclearisation. We analyse the conditions under which a nuclear hedger shifts its nuclear policy towards one of restraint. Drawing insights from prospect theory, we argue that a nuclear policy shift occurs when a nuclear hedger gains an asymmetric leveragevis-à-visits adversary. Specifically, a hedging strategy that is based on loss aversion will only be abandoned when a shift in the nuclear aspirant's reference point occurs during negotiations. To test our theoretical arguments, we conduct an in-depth case study of North Korea's nuclear policies throughout the 1990s and 2000s. The empirical study of the changes in North Korea's negotiating stance during the Agreed Framework negotiations and the Six-Party Talks supports our asymmetric leverage thesis. We conclude with broad policy implications for the non-proliferation regime.

Unpacking the Ontological Foundation of North Korea's Ambivalent Foreign Policy: Brinkmanship as Rationality

Despite strong consensus regarding the rationale behind North Korea’s nuclear ambitions, namely to guarantee the regime’s survival, this paper investigates (1) why North Korea continuously engaged in provocations such as testing its nuclear and missile technologies despite its increasingly mature nuclear arsenal and thus its relatively high resilience vis‐à‐vis external interventions; and (2) why the USA was so successful at (temporarily) making North Korea cease such undertakings. Status Theory, a novel theory developed herein, is applied to provide an explanation for this phenomenon.Status Theory aims at shedding light on this crisis through its distinction between prestige and respect. It is hypothesized that Pyongyang places great importance on enforcing respect from Washington, while increasing its prestige domestically through frequent tests of its military capabilities. The post‐June 12th détente, albeit presumably temporary, is considered conducive to Kim’s status and is thus instrumental for the regime’s ontological security, but it is not conducive to denuclearization.

Comment on “United Nations Sanctions on North Korea's Luxury Goods Imports: Impact and Implications”

Interest in the effects of economic sanctions on North Korea is growing as international talks regarding its denuclearization unfold. Jeong (2019) is a unique study in that it takes the embargo on imports of luxury goods as its specific focus for examining the effects of UN sanctions against North Korea. Previous studies examining the effects of the luxury goods embargo include Noland (2009), who focuses on North Korea's trade with China and South Korea immediately after the 2006 sanctions resolution that followed North Korea's first nuclear test. However, Jeong's study is distinguished by its comprehensive nature, covering a longer period and a wider range of countries. Jeong's overall conclusion that the sanctions were ineffective in decreasing North Korea's imports of luxury goods is not novel. However, it provides additional food for thought, revealing a number of hitherto little-known facts. These include the rise in China's share of North Korean luxury goods imports from 30.9% in 2004 to 96.6% in 2017, and the fact that even many nations that submitted plans for the implementation of sanctions failed to rigorously implement the provisions of the resolutions concerning the embargo on luxury goods. One factor behind the sanctions’ ineffectiveness was the lack of objective criteria for what constitutes luxury goods. Jeong (2019) persuasively argues that provisions enforcing transparency on sanctioning countries must be strengthened. Nevertheless, the fact remains that UN economic sanctions have limitations from the outset. Ogura (2017) states that rather than forcing or preventing specific actions, namely acts of hostility, the more fundamental objective or purpose of economic sanctions is to maintain and strengthen specific norms in the international community and to bolster solidarity among those who abide by them. While UN economic sanctions vary in their objectives and effects, which include strengthening unity among member countries and encouraging domestic political solidarity, they have a range of constraints and limitations, such as their effectiveness if some countries fail to comply with the sanctions or if alternative supplies are available. There are hardly any historical examples of countries changing their behavior in the face of economic sanctions. While the UN Charter does not use the term economic sanctions, such sanctions are the main pillar of its nonmilitary action. Economic sanctions take various forms; embargoes on luxury goods are a form of what are termed smart sanctions. Smart sanctions were devised to target policymakers, based on the lessons learned from the severe civilian humanitarian crisis that resulted from comprehensive economic sanctions imposed on Iraq. Although the embargo on supplying luxury goods to North Korea was likely intended to impact on the elite, doubts remain about the effectiveness of an approach that distinguishes between the elite and ordinary citizens in a reclusive state where the civil society is undeveloped and which is willing to bear international isolation in pursuit of its nuclear ambitions. In this sense, Jeong (2019) is right to stress the need for the UN Security Council to devise more intelligent sanction measures, coupled with negotiations to positively alter North Korea's behavior. Economic sanctions alone are not necessarily sufficient to achieve political aims and often only become effective when combined with other political measures. However, deepening rifts between the USA and China over trade and security issues raise the question of whether the international community can be unanimous in offering North Korea acceptable comprehensive incentives. While denuclearization talks between the USA and North Korea are ongoing, there are signs that China intends to revive its traditional bilateral relationship with North Korea. The People's Daily described China and North Korea's relationship as being “as close as lips and teeth.” The analogy signifies not only that they are close, but also that they support each other and that what destroys one will cause the destruction of the other. Similarly, when President Xi Jinping met Chairman Kim Jong-un for talks in May 2018, he made a display of solidarity, trotting out old phrases last used during the Cold War. China's customs authority has not published any detailed data on trade with other countries – including North Korea – since April 2018. Media reports suggest that Chairman Kim was gifted many luxury items as souvenirs by China during his visit the month before. When the USA renewed calls for sanctions on North Korea at a ministerial-level meeting of the UN Security Council in September 2018, China joined Russia in arguing that sanctions needed to be relaxed. Although China began working with the USA in 2017 to impose more rigorous sanctions on North Korea, this cooperation seems unlikely to continue beyond 2019.

“Nothing but a False Sense of Security”: Mapping and Critically Assessing Papal Support for a World Free from Nuclear Weapons

ABSTRACT This article maps the papal peace witness’ support for a world free from nuclear weapons. Although the last concentration of scholarly work in this area dates back to the early and mid-1980s, now is a cogent time to update that scholarship by revisiting and critically assessing papal teachings and diplomatic actions that move towards banning nuclear weapons on Earth. Contemporary events motivating this article include the need to bridge the gap evident in US and global policy on nuclear weapons. Particularly relevant here is the current “everything on the table”-themed posturing, oddly mixing war and peace themes, active in the Trump administration’s policy of reinvigorating the USA’s nuclear arsenal in the face of challenge by the likes of Kim Jong-un’s nuclear ambitions for North Korea. Yet, at the same time a significant number of the members of the community of nations, including the Holy See, have signed the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons. To undertake the task of critically mapping papal support for a world free from nuclear weapons that made it almost a given that the Holy See would sign and ratify that treaty, the present article examines the contributions of contemporary popes from Pius XII to Francis. It focuses on how these popes named and addressed what they often characterized as the moral evils manifest in nuclear weapons, when focusing their efforts to rid the world of these human-generated existential threats.