Northern Hemisphere Countries Research Articles

THE SPREAD OF COVID-19 OUTBREAK IN AFRICA: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS BETWEEN NIGERIA AND NIGER REPUBLIC

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARSCoV2) outbreak has developed a major public health concern, particularly in northern hemisphere countries. The novel COVID-19 pandemic that broke out in 2019 presented obstacles to the scientific community and healthcare providers. The disparities across Africa highlight the value of assessment that go further than a continent- wide case number, which can distort the true situation on the ground. We wanted to look at epidemiology. In this review using data on confirmed cases and deaths, we attempt to assess the COVID-19 situation in Nigeria and Niger. We also contrasted the patterns of disease transmission and death. The main objective of this research is to address: How do the two countries relate in terms of COVID-19 distribution and mortality. The World Health Organization database, which updates data on the global number of confirmed cases and deaths for the Covid-19 pandemic on a regular basis, was used to get the reported numbers of cases and deaths between the two countries. A Descriptive statistics were used to analyze the average daily reported Covid-19 cases and death and annual cumulative cases and death between the two countries under study. Bivariate correlation analysis was conducted to assess the measure of direction and strength of association that exits between daily new cases and daily new death and also assess the same in terms of annual cumulative cases and death from 1 st April, 2020 to 31st March 2021. In Nigeria, the COVID19 spread pattern was similar to that of Niger. The daily deaths and cases distribution in Niger resembled those of Nigeria, so on daily basis in Niger they record 13.65 covid19 cases on average while Nigeria on average in daily basis they record 445.62 new cases of Covid-19. Then for the new death in Niger the average death on daily basis stand to be 0.50 compare to Nigeria on average which has 5.63 reported new death on daily basis. So for the bivariate correlation re

Experimental investigation of a ground-source heat pump system for greenhouse heating–cooling

Abstract One of the important heating criteria of a greenhouse in the Northern hemisphere countries is heat availability, particularly in the winter season. Among other heat storage types, seasonal soil-based energy storage performance is auspicious. However, the performance is affected by the length and depth of borehole pipes used, which are very expensive for growers. Therefore, this study investigates the performance of a shallow seasonal soil-based energy storage heat pump, in a greenhouse. Thick insulations were installed to reduce soil heat loss. The soil thermal imbalance ratio was calculated to know the thermal recovery resulted. Based on the results, the heat pump’s seasonal coefficient of performance (COP) heating and cooling varied between 1.48–2.97 and 1.20–3.45, respectively. The COPsys heating and cooling were observed to be 1.51 and 1.55, respectively. However, the system successfully maintained indoor temperature >16°C in other seasons, except for winter. Due to low brine input in winter, the average indoor temperature dropped to 11°C, indicating a thermal soil property problem. Moreover, the proposed system achieved soil thermal imbalance ratio of 32.76%.

Evaluating the 2019 NARO-APCC Joint Crop Forecasting Service Yield Forecasts for Northern Hemisphere Countries

AbstractForecasting global food production is of growing importance in the context of globalizing food supply chains and observed increases in the frequency of climate extremes. The National Agriculture and Food Research Organization–Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Climate Center (NARO-APCC) Crop Forecasting Service provides yield forecasts for global cropland on a monthly basis using seasonal temperature and precipitation forecasts as the main inputs, and 1 year of testing the operation of the service was recently completed. Here we evaluate the forecasts for the 2019 yields of major commodity crops by comparing with the reported yields and forecasts from the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC) and the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). Forecasts for maize, wheat, soybean, and rice were evaluated for 20 countries located in the Northern Hemisphere, including 39 crop-producing states in the United States, for which 2019 reported yields were already publicly available. The NARO-APCC forecasts are available several months earlier than the JRC and USDA forecasts. The skill of the NARO-APCC forecasts was good in absolute terms, but the forecast errors in the NARO-APCC forecasts were almost always larger than those of the JRC and USDA forecasts. The forecast errors in the JRC and USDA forecasts decreased as the harvest approached, whereas those in the NARO-APCC forecasts were rather stable over the season, with some exceptions. Although this feature seems to be a disadvantage, it may turn into an advantage if skillful forecasts are achievable in the earlier stages of a season. We conclude by discussing relative advantages and disadvantages and potential ways to improve global yield forecasting.

Global Dieting Trends and Seasonality: Social Big-Data Analysis May Be a Useful Tool

We explored online search interest in dieting and weight loss using big-data analysis with a view to its potential utility in global obesity prevention efforts. We applied big-data analysis to the global dieting trends collected from Google and Naver search engines from January 2004 to January 2018 using the search term “diet,” in selected six Northern and Southern Hemisphere countries; five Arab and Muslim countries grouped as conservative, semi-conservative, and liberal; and South Korea. Using cosinor analysis to evaluate the periodic flow of time series data, there was seasonality for global search interest in dieting and weight loss (amplitude = 6.94, CI = 5.33~8.56, p < 0.000) with highest in January and the lowest in December for both Northern and Southern Hemisphere countries. Seasonal dieting trend in the Arab and Muslim countries was present, but less remarkable (monthly seasonal seasonality, amplitude = 4.07, CI = 2.20~5.95, p < 0.000). For South Korea, seasonality was noted on Naver (amplitude = 11.84, CI = 7.62~16.05, p < 0.000). Our findings suggest that big-data analysis of social media can be an adjunct in tackling important public health issues like dieting, weight loss, obesity, and food fads, including the optimal timing of interventions.

COVID-19: the transition towards a new normal-experiences from the European country of Malta.

AimThe COVID-19 pandemic has caused a global change in the way of living. In late spring, a number of Northern Hemisphere countries were in a transition period from lockdown to a new normality. Malta, a European country, praised by the Commonwealth General Secretary as the country that ‘has done the best in the whole of Europe’ was also at this stage. The aim was to summarise the transition period in Malta while describing the different transition phases and interventions adopted to return to a new normality.Subject and methodA literature search was conducted using Google search engines and Maltese online newspapers.ResultsUp till 21 June 2020, a total of 665 cases were identified, with 40 cases being active and nine deaths. Eight weeks after the first reported COVID-19 case, the first transition phase with relaxation of some lockdown measures came into effect. A spike in positive cases was observed after this phase. The second and third transition phases followed suite in 2 week intervals, at the end of which all services were re-opened. However, the travel ban was to be lifted on 1 July 2020. Of note, the number of positive cases remained relatively low after the latter two transition phases.ConclusionMalta’s COVID-19 response team managed to contain the first wave following an all-of-society and all-of-government approach. The healthcare system was equipped with an adequate number of beds and ventilators. The three transition phases instituted have shifted the Maltese population from a partial lockdown to a new normality with low fluctuating COVID-19 daily positive cases during the transition period.

Integrating applied parasitological and molecular epidemiological methodologies to investigate the capacity of Haemonchus contortus to over-winter on pasture in Scotland.

The Barber's Pole worm, Haemonchus contortus is of major concern to sheep producers, particularly in the southern hemisphere. This nematode is also commonly found in many sheep flocks in Northern hemisphere countries but is generally not associated with acute clinical pathology. As with other nematode species, the pattern of disease is changing in the United Kingdom. Changes in management practices, climate, anthelmintic resistance prevalence and parasite adaptation are possible factors thought to be responsible for this. In the present study, a combination of traditional applied parasitological and molecular species identification techniques were used to assess the capability of H. contortus infective larvae to over-winter on pasture and infect lambs in early spring. Adult and inhibited H. contortus worms were identified in previously worm-free tracer lambs that had grazed contaminated pasture in late winter/early spring (February/March). The study illustrated the benefit of using classical applied parasitology techniques in conjunction with molecular species identification methods to explore the epidemiology of gastro-intestinal nematodes of livestock. This study also demonstrated that larvae were able to survive over-winter, albeit in small numbers, and potentially contaminate pastures earlier than previously considered in northern regions of the UK.

The role of seasonality in the spread of COVID-19 pandemic

It has been reported that the transmission of COVID-19 can be influenced by the variation of environmental factors due to the seasonal cycle. However, its underlying mechanism in the current and onward transmission pattern remains unclear owing to the limited data and difficulties in separating the impacts of social distancing. Understanding the role of seasonality in the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic is imperative in formulating public health interventions. Here, the seasonal signals of the COVID-19 time series are extracted using the EEMD method, and a modified Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Recovered (SEIR) model incorporated with seasonal factors is introduced to quantify its impact on the current COVID-19 pandemic. Seasonal signals decomposed via the EEMD method indicate that infectivity and mortality of SARS-CoV-2 are both higher in colder climates. The quantitative simulation shows that the cold season in the Southern Hemisphere countries caused a 59.71 ± 8.72% increase of the total infections, while the warm season in the Northern Hemisphere countries contributed to a 46.38 ± 29.10% reduction. COVID-19 seasonality is more pronounced at higher latitudes, where larger seasonal amplitudes of environmental indicators are observed. Seasonality alone is not sufficient to curb the virus transmission to an extent that intervention measures are no longer needed, but health care capacity should be scaled up in preparation for new surges in COVID-19 cases in the upcoming cold season. Our study highlights the necessity of considering seasonal factors when formulating intervention strategies.

Evidence and magnitude of the effects of meteorological changes on SARS-CoV-2 transmission

Intensity and duration of the COVID-19 pandemic, and planning required to balance concerns of saving lives and avoiding economic collapse, could depend significantly on whether SARS-CoV-2 transmission is sensitive to seasonal changes. Hypothesis is that increasing temperature results in reduced SARS CoV-2 transmission and may help slow the increase of cases over time. Fifty representative Northern Hemisphere countries meeting specific criteria had sufficient COVID-19 case and meteorological data for analysis. Regression was used to find the relationship between the log of number of COVID-19 cases and temperature over time in 50 representative countries. To summarize the day-day variability, and reduce dimensionality, we selected a robust measure, Coefficient of Time (CT), for each location. The resulting regression coefficients were then used in a multivariable regression against meteorological, country-level and demographic covariates. Median minimum daily temperature showed the strongest correlation with the reciprocal of CT (which can be considered as a rate associated with doubling time) for confirmed cases (adjusted R2 = 0.610, p = 1.45E-06). A similar correlation was found using median daily dewpoint, which was highly colinear with temperature, and therefore was not used in the analysis. The correlation between minimum median temperature and the rate of increase of the log of confirmed cases was 47% and 45% greater than for cases of death and recovered cases of COVID-19, respectively. This suggests the primary influence of temperature is on SARS-CoV-2 transmission more than COVID-19 morbidity. Based on the correlation between temperature and the rate of increase in COVID-19, it can be estimated that, between the range of 30 to 100 degrees Fahrenheit, a one degree increase is associated with a 1% decrease-and a one degree decrease could be associated with a 3.7% increase-in the rate of increase of the log of daily confirmed cases. This model of the effect of decreasing temperatures can only be verified over time as the pandemic proceeds through colder months. The results suggest that boreal summer months are associated with slower rates of COVID-19 transmission, consistent with the behavior of a seasonal respiratory virus. Knowledge of COVID-19 seasonality could prove useful in local planning for phased reductions social interventions and help to prepare for the timing of possible pandemic resurgence during cooler months.

The Impact of the Tourism Sector of a Country's Economic Downturn: Pre and Post COVID-19 Pandemic

The outbreak of the Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) pandemic causes significant damages globally. As it expands across nations, economic aspect got severely affected whereas, a lot of countries were enforced of mass closure that decline all kinds of travel around the world. Different tourism sector plays a major role in a country?s economy as it offers a wide range of benefits that can boost the revenue of the economy and could create thousands of direct and indirect employments in a country. Due to COVID-19 pandemic, the tourism sector around the world is now facing an economic downturn. The World Economic Outlook projected global economy would contract by 4.4 percent in 2020. The shock in tourism- dependent economies will be far worse. Among tourism- dependent Northern Hemisphere countries, Country X has been in the top 10 most visited country in the world unlike Country Y. Equally, the economic consequences of the coronavirus pandemic have meant tourists are less inclined to spend more, with many expecting their disposable income to continue to fall in the succeeding months. Country X is recommended to review the different response plans of other countries in terms of a viral outbreak. It is also highly recommended that ?Travel Bubble? concept should also be considered for countries to initially jumpstart the tourism industry. The tourism industry, just like any other industry faces one universal truth: life after the pandemic will look significantly different.

Temperature dependence of COVID-19 transmission

The recent COVID-19 pandemic follows in its early stages an almost exponential expansion, with the number of cases as a function of time reasonably well fit by N(t) ∝ eαt, in many countries. We analyze the rate α in different countries, starting in each country from a threshold of 30 total cases and fitting for the following 12 days, capturing thus the early exponential growth in a rather homogeneous way. We look for a link between the rate α and the average temperature T of each country, in the month of the initial epidemic growth. We analyze a base set of 42 countries, which developed the epidemic at an earlier stage, an intermediate set of 88 countries and an extended set of 125 countries, which developed the epidemic more recently. Fitting with a linear behavior α(T), we find increasing evidence in the three datasets for a slower spread at high T, at 99.66% C.L., 99.86% C.L. and 99.99995% C.L. (p-value 5⋅10−7, or 5σ detection) in the base, intermediate and extended dataset, respectively. The doubling time at 25 °C is 40% ~ 50% longer than at 5 °C. Moreover we analyzed the possible existence of a bias: poor countries, typically located in warm regions, might have less intense testing. By excluding countries below a given GDP per capita from the dataset, we find that this affects our conclusions only slightly and only for the extended dataset. The significance always remains high, with a p-value of about 10−3 - 10−4 or less. Our findings give hope that, for northern hemisphere countries, the growth rate should significantly decrease as a result of both warmer weather and lockdown policies. In general, policy measures should be taken to prevent a second wave, such as safe ventilation in public buildings, social distancing, use of masks, testing and tracking policies, before the arrival of the next cold season.

Increased winter drownings in ice-covered regions with warmer winters.

Winter activities on ice are culturally important for many countries, yet they constitute a high safety risk depending upon the stability of the ice. Because consistently cold periods are required to form stable and thick ice, warmer winters could degrade ice conditions and increase the likelihood of falling through the ice. This study provides the first large-scale assessment of winter drowning from 10 Northern Hemisphere countries. We documented over 4000 winter drowning events. Winter drownings increased exponentially in regions with warmer winters when air temperatures neared 0°C. The largest number of drownings occurred when winter air temperatures were between -5°C and 0°C, when ice is less stable, and also in regions where indigenous traditions and livelihood require extended time on ice. Rates of drowning were greatest late in the winter season when ice stability declines. Children and adults up to the age of 39 were at the highest risk of winter drownings. Beyond temperature, differences in cultures, regulations, and human behaviours can be important additional risk factors. Our findings indicate the potential for increased human mortality with warmer winter air temperatures. Incorporating drowning prevention plans would improve adaptation strategies to a changing climate.

Challenges in creating herd immunity to SARS-CoV-2 infection by mass vaccination

Vaccines to protect against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) have risen up the agenda of most policy makers and individuals as the second wave of COVID-19 in northern hemisphere countries grows and there is increasing pressure on health-care systems. For any licensed vaccine, efficacy and duration of protection are key issues. Vaccine efficacies to protect against infection above 80% are desirable,1 but duration of protection will remain uncertain for a number of years post licensure of COVID-19 vaccines.

SARS-CoV-2 pandemic expanding in sub-Saharan Africa: Considerations for COVID-19 in people living with HIV

In December 2019, a novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, started a global pandemic of respiratory illness, termed COVID-19 [1]. The spectrum of COVID-19 has ranged from a mild, self-limiting respiratory tract illness to severe progressive pneumonia, multi-organ failure, and death [2]. Older patients and those with a weaker immune system appear to have a greater risk of death [3]. Thus far, the vast majority of deaths from COVID-19 have occurred in Italy, China, Iran, and Spain—all Northern hemisphere countries with good health care resources and a low HIV prevalence.

When should we get vaccinated against seasonal flu?

Annual influenza vaccination is especially relevant for older people because of their high risk of complications caused by influenza virus infection. It is important to get the elderly and other groups at risk of influenza derived complications to be vaccinated before the onset of the epidemic activity. Vaccination administered too early or delayed will not allow for desired protection. In northern hemisphere countries, influenza vaccination campaign runs between mid-September and the first week of December, with marked variations across countries.Influenza vaccine has moderate effectiveness in its ability to produce a protective immune response, which is reached within 14 days of having received the vaccine. The immunity achieved is attenuated over time resulting in a marked decline in vaccine effectiveness. One strategy used in many countries to limit this decline is to delay the vaccination period by one to two weeks. This delay either compresses the period towards the onset when the epidemic wave usually begins, so that when it initiates the degree of protective immunity of individuals is high.

¿Cuándo debemos vacunarnos ante la gripe estacional?

Annual influenza vaccination is especially relevant for older people because of their high risk of complications caused by influenza virus infection. It is important to get the elderly and other groups at risk of influenza derived complications to be vaccinated before the onset of the epidemic activity. Vaccination administered too early or delayed will not allow for desired protection. In northern hemisphere countries, influenza vaccination campaign runs between mid-September and the first week of December, with marked variations across countries.Influenza vaccine has moderate effectiveness in its ability to produce a protective immune response, which is reached within 14days of having received the vaccine. The immunity achieved is attenuated over time resulting in a marked decline in vaccine effectiveness. One strategy used in many countries to limit this decline is to delay the vaccination period by one to two weeks. This delay either compresses the period towards the onset when the epidemic wave usually begins, so that when it initiates the degree of protective immunity of individuals is high.

901. MEDI8897 Prevents Serious RSV Disease in Healthy Preterm Infants

BackgroundRSV is the principal cause of lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI) among infants, and a significant unmet need exists for RSV prevention in healthy infants. We have developed a highly potent, extended half-life monoclonal antibody (mAb), to protect infants for an entire RSV season using a single IM dose. Here we report the efficacy, safety, pharmacokinetics, and anti-drug antibody (ADA) responses for MEDI8897 in palivizumab-ineligible preterm infants born between 29 and 35 weeks gestation.MethodsA total of 1,453 Infants were randomized 2:1 to receive a single 50 mg IM injection of MEDI8897 (n = 969) or placebo (n = 484) and followed for 360 days. Enrollment occurred just prior to the 2016 and 2017 RSV seasons in 23 northern and southern hemisphere countries. Blood was collected periodically. Infants with a medically attended (MA) LRTI (outpatient or inpatient) had nasal swabs obtained for central RSV testing by RT-PCR. Predefined clinical criteria were used for the case definition.ResultsA total of 1,417 (97.5%) subjects completed the 150-day efficacy follow-up period and 1,367 (94.1%) completed the study. In the MEDI8897 group, a 70.1% (95% CI: 52.3%, 81.2%; P < 0.0001) reduction in the incidence of medically attended RSV LRTI and a 78.4% (95% CI: 51.9%, 90.3%; P = 0.0002) reduction in the incidence of RSV LRTI hospitalization was achieved. These efficacy results were consistent when analyzed by hemisphere, RSV subtype, and subject demographics. Similar proportions of adverse events (86.8% placebo; 86.2% MEDI8897) and serious adverse events (16.9% placebo; 11.2% MEDI8897) were reported in study subjects. There were no significant hypersensitivity reactions with similar proportions reported for both groups (0.6% placebo; 0.5% MEDI8897). The incidence of ADA detected any time post baseline was low (3.8% placebo; 5.6% MEDI8897) with no impact on PK or safety. The occurrence of non-RSV LRTIs was similar for both groups indicating no replacement by other pathogens.ConclusionIn this large randomized study of RSV prophylaxis in healthy preterm infants, MEDI8897 immunoprophylaxis provided a significant reduction in RSV MA-LRTI and hospitalization. These results have promising implications for the future of RSV prophylaxis for all infants.This study was funded by AstraZeneca and sanofi pasteur.Disclosures All Authors: No reported Disclosures.

Seasonality and global public interest in psoriasis: an infodemiology study

ObjectiveAlthough patients with psoriasis frequently report seasonal changes in their symptoms, the seasonality of psoriasis has rarely been explored. This study aims to investigate the seasonal pattern of and global...

Big data analysis reveals the existence of seasonal pseudohyperkalaemia even in temperate climates

BackgroundSeasonal pseudohyperkalaemia has been described in colder northern hemisphere countries. The lower temperatures may inhibit red cell Na-K-ATPase allowing the efflux of potassium and higher measured levels. It has not been described in warmer subtropical climates. AimsThe aim was to determine if seasonal variation in serum potassium occurred in a temperate climate. MethodsWe conducted a retrospective review of serum potassium results over two years in two South African provinces with different microclimates and seasonal temperatures. The study included patient samples from surrounding clinics and hospitals in Pretoria, Gauteng province, and in Durban, KwaZulu-Natal province, South Africa. Average temperature ranges were obtained from the South African weather service from the same period (June 2015–June 2017). ResultsA total of 91,420 results were analysed and we found a statistically significant difference between the January (summer) and June (winter) serum potassium levels (p < .0001). These results demonstrate that the winter months in South Africa are associated with significantly higher measured potassium results. ConclusionSeasonal pseudohyperkalaemia may be more widespread than realized and can occur in more temperate climates and laboratories should take the appropriate action when transporting samples as this could influence interpretation and clinical management.

Description of the Cirad wood collection in Montpellier, France, representing eight thousand identified species

La xylothèque du Cirad est composée d’échantillons provenant de 34 395 arbres issus de 123 pays, appartenant à 235 familles, 2 160 genres et 8 385 espèces (dont 60 % sont représentées par plus d’un spécimen par arbre). Les espèces d’Afrique, d’Asie et d’Amérique représentent 85 % de la collection. Une description botanique des familles, genres et espèces les plus représentés a été faite dans les dix régions géographiques pour lesquelles il y a suffisamment d’échantillons (plus de 1 000). Ces régions comprennent neuf régions tropicales ou subtropicales et une grande entité appelée « Climat Froid du Nord » (NCC), qui couvre tous les pays de l’hémisphère nord ayant une saison froide marquée (climats boréal, alpin tempéré et méditerranéen). Les neuf régions tropicales et subtropicales ont plus ou moins les mêmes familles dominantes, mais différents genres dominants alors que les familles dominantes dans l’entité NCC diffèrent largement. La collection est décrite dans une base de données spécifique : échantillons de bois, sections et photographies avec leurs noms et provenance. La densité a été mesurée pour les deux tiers des spécimens (6 750 espèces). Dans l’ensemble, les valeurs de la densité ont une distribution presque normale dans une plage de 0,04 à 1,36, avec une médiane de 0,72 et un coefficient de variation (CV) de 28 %. La différence entre régions, quant à la distribution de la densité, est assez faible (valeurs moyennes variant de 0,66 à 0,76) avec un CV systématiquement élevé (26 % à 32 %). En examinant les familles, genres et espèces les mieux représentés, le CV moyen pour les familles (26 %) est similaire à celui des régions et beaucoup plus bas pour les genres (18 %) et espèces (13 %). L’éventail des densités augmente de la famille au genre et à l’espèce (0,53 à 0,86, 0,46 à 0,95, 0,23 à 1,07 respectivement). Dans l’article, les différents usages actuels et potentiels de la xylothèque sont discutés.

Characterization of the small hive beetle transcriptome focused on the insecticide target site and RNA interference genes

Abstract The small hive beetle (SHB), Aethina tumida, is an invasive pest species in most Northern Hemisphere countries, including Korea. SHB causes serious damage to apiaries by destroying overwintering honey bee colonies. To obtain basic information for efficient management of SHB, genes encoding conventional insecticide targets, specifically the voltage-sensitive sodium channel α-subunit (VSSC) and acetylcholinesterase (AChE), and RNA interference (RNAi)-related components were annotated and characterized following analysis of transcriptomes of adults and larvae. A single VSSC gene was identified but no apparent mutations associated with pyrethroid resistance were detected. Genes encoding two AChEs (AtAChE1 and AtAChE2) were identified from the SHB transcriptome. No apparent mutations associated with resistance to organophosphorus and carbamate insecticides were identified in the AtAChE1 gene, whereas the S238G mutation, originally identified from the Colorado potato beetle, was detected in the AtAChE2 gene. Native polyacrylamide electrophoresis in conjunction with western blotting revealed that AtAChE1 was the main catalytic enzyme and therefore a toxicologically more relevant target. AtAChE1 was determined to exist in both membrane-anchored and soluble forms. The main components of RNA interference (RNAi) were identified, suggesting that RNAi is likely functional in SHB and an RNAi-based approach is a feasible alternative control measure.