Temperature dependence of COVID-19 transmission

Abstract

The recent COVID-19 pandemic follows in its early stages an almost exponential expansion, with the number of cases as a function of time reasonably well fit by N(t) ∝ eαt, in many countries. We analyze the rate α in different countries, starting in each country from a threshold of 30 total cases and fitting for the following 12 days, capturing thus the early exponential growth in a rather homogeneous way. We look for a link between the rate α and the average temperature T of each country, in the month of the initial epidemic growth. We analyze a base set of 42 countries, which developed the epidemic at an earlier stage, an intermediate set of 88 countries and an extended set of 125 countries, which developed the epidemic more recently. Fitting with a linear behavior α(T), we find increasing evidence in the three datasets for a slower spread at high T, at 99.66% C.L., 99.86% C.L. and 99.99995% C.L. (p-value 5⋅10−7, or 5σ detection) in the base, intermediate and extended dataset, respectively. The doubling time at 25 °C is 40% ~ 50% longer than at 5 °C. Moreover we analyzed the possible existence of a bias: poor countries, typically located in warm regions, might have less intense testing. By excluding countries below a given GDP per capita from the dataset, we find that this affects our conclusions only slightly and only for the extended dataset. The significance always remains high, with a p-value of about 10−3 - 10−4 or less. Our findings give hope that, for northern hemisphere countries, the growth rate should significantly decrease as a result of both warmer weather and lockdown policies. In general, policy measures should be taken to prevent a second wave, such as safe ventilation in public buildings, social distancing, use of masks, testing and tracking policies, before the arrival of the next cold season.