The role of seasonality in the spread of COVID-19 pandemic

Abstract

It has been reported that the transmission of COVID-19 can be influenced by the variation of environmental factors due to the seasonal cycle. However, its underlying mechanism in the current and onward transmission pattern remains unclear owing to the limited data and difficulties in separating the impacts of social distancing. Understanding the role of seasonality in the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic is imperative in formulating public health interventions. Here, the seasonal signals of the COVID-19 time series are extracted using the EEMD method, and a modified Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Recovered (SEIR) model incorporated with seasonal factors is introduced to quantify its impact on the current COVID-19 pandemic. Seasonal signals decomposed via the EEMD method indicate that infectivity and mortality of SARS-CoV-2 are both higher in colder climates. The quantitative simulation shows that the cold season in the Southern Hemisphere countries caused a 59.71 ± 8.72% increase of the total infections, while the warm season in the Northern Hemisphere countries contributed to a 46.38 ± 29.10% reduction. COVID-19 seasonality is more pronounced at higher latitudes, where larger seasonal amplitudes of environmental indicators are observed. Seasonality alone is not sufficient to curb the virus transmission to an extent that intervention measures are no longer needed, but health care capacity should be scaled up in preparation for new surges in COVID-19 cases in the upcoming cold season. Our study highlights the necessity of considering seasonal factors when formulating intervention strategies.