Northern Sea Route Research Articles

Impact of the Primorsky International Transport Corridor on the hinterland competition between ports in Northeast China and Russian Far East

The Primorsky International Transport Corridor (PITC) is considered an important component for connecting the Eurasian Economic Union and the Belt and Road Initiative. However, its development will change the existing transportation and port networks among neighboring countries or regions, which could potentially lead to hinterland competition between regional ports. From the perspective of shippers' route selection for import and export goods, this paper examines the impact of the PITC on the hinterland competition between Russian Far East Ports and Northeast China Ports by establishing a generalized land-sea combined transportation cost model. Furthermore, using the method of scenario analysis, this paper predicts and analyzes the evolution of the hinterland of Russian Far East Ports and Northeast China Ports, and assesses the impact of PITC on port accessibility in Northeast China. It is found that the hinterland competition between Dalian port and Far East ports will intensify with the construction of PITC. If the PITC construction enters a mature stage and the Northern Sea Route is opened in the future, Far East ports will capture more than 60% of the foreign market in Northeast China and Europe trade. The port transshipment efficiency is a key factor affecting the performance of the PITC and port hinterland.

Impacts of 1.5 °C global warming on hydrological conditions of navigation along the Northern Sea Route and Northwest Passage

Arctic navigability is crucial to the global economy and landscape, while there is an omission in understanding how Arctic navigability changes as a function of 1.5 °C of the Paris Agreement. This study investigated the impact of 1.5 °C global warming above the preindustrial level on sea ice conditions and accessibility of the Northern Sea Route (NSR) and Northwest Passage (NWP) with the Polar Operational Limit Assessment Risk Indexing System and new risk demarcation criteria. The Arctic is colder on the Canadian side than on the European side under 1.5 °C warming. Sea ice is mostly less than three years old, and the younger, thinner and less concentrated ice is mainly in the seas along the NSR. Ships above Polar Class (PC) 6 might be unimpeded along two passages all the year. Besides, the NSR and NWP have great potential for PC6 ships in October–December, while it is only the NSR for PC7 ships. Caution is still required when navigating the western East Siberian Sea, its surrounding straits, and the Parry Channel. These changes in hydrological conditions are important for global shipping, and this work is helpful for supporting coordinated international decision-making.

Accessibility in key areas of the Arctic in the 21st mid-century

The navigation potential of the Arctic has improved with the rapid retreat of sea ice under continuous warming. The comprehensive evaluation of Arctic accessibility for low ice-breaking ships (civil use) in the mid-century is important to support coordinated international decision-making. In this study, the hydrological conditions and navigation potential in key areas and crucial straits along the Northern Sea Route (NSR) and Northwest Passage (NWP) were assessed under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) using the Polar Operational Limit Assessment Risk Indexing System. The results showed that the most critical areas for navigation in the mid-century (2046–2055) are the waters around the New Siberian Islands and within the Parry Channel. Arctic navigability improves from SSP1-2.6 to SSP2-4.5 to SSP5-8.5, and the accessibility for PC7 ships under SSP2-4.5 is even better for OW ships under SSP5-8.5. The route on the north side of the New Siberian Islands is a relatively good choice within the NSR, and the southern route has a better navigation potential than the Parry Channel within the NWP. In addition, the accessibility of the Dmitrii Laptev Strait is better than that of the Sannikov Strait at a monthly scale, although the latter has more navigable days. However, there is little difference in accessibility between the eastern and western parts of the Parry Channel. The best navigation potential through the above straits is in September for ordinary ships, and the optimal time window is delayed and extended for PC7 ships. The results can serve as references for policy-making and navigation planning in the Arctic.

Северный завоз как триггер развития транспорта Арк­тической зоны Якутии и Дальнего Востока в целом

The paper analyzes the scheme for organizing the northern delivery of goods to Yakutia, identifies the main problems of the development of regional transport infrastructure, and proves that the northern delivery improvement by the development of water transport will allow the formation of a railway — river transport corridor (Skovorodino — Yakutsk — Tiksi). The Yakutsk transit meridian railway-river corridor will solve many logistical problems of northern delivery by redirecting part of the cargo from the Northern Sea Route to the south of the region and backwards. As a result, the spatial configuration of the transport network of the Sakha Republic will be able to “complete” the transport infrastructure of the Far Eastern Federal District by integrating the Yakutsk railway and river corridor as a western segment into the structure of the promising Great Far Eastern Transport Ring. The measure will expand significantly the prospects for the development of Yakutia and the Far East as a whole, and the logistics potential of the emerging transport ring in the future will complement favorably the Northern Sea Route, reducing the total distance of cargo delivery by 3—3.5 thousand km.

ПЛЮС ГАЗИФИКАЦИЯ/ДОГАЗИФИКАЦИЯ ВСЕХ РОССИЙСКИХ ПОЛЬЗОВАТЕЛЕЙ И ИНЫЕ ПРОБЛЕМЫ ОТРАСЛИ

The material of the proposed article seems to the authors to be extremely relevant in connection with the 11 packages adopted by the Western community against Russia, containing more than 12 thousand of all kinds of sanctions and restrictions, including in relation to the export of hydrocarbons. This circumstance has put the domestic economy in an extremely difficult situation, especially in the context of a special military operation. Reorientation of the oil and gas industry to the East, to the countries of Greater Eurasia, year-round transport and industrial development of the Northern Sea Route and the Arctic zone of Russia will not only overcome the problems and difficulties that have arisen, but also strengthen political and economic ties with the states of the Silk Road and the Organization of the Collective Security Treaty (CSTO). The purpose of the study is to provide a comprehensive economic assessment of the implementation of the state Program for Social Gasification/Additional Gasification in the constituent entities of the Federation, as well as to forecast industrial production based on the processing of hydrocarbon raw materials at different degrees of technological conversion into lines of consumer goods and products intended for export. The research results obtained so far by the authors of the article boil down to a review of information sources on the identified problems, an analysis of individual issues of the dynamics of production, export supplies, transportation and pricing of domestic hydrocarbon raw materials, and to determining the success of the implementation of the gasification program in individual regions of the Federation. The conceptual approaches involved were discussed. In conclusion, the article is accompanied by a number of author's conclusions.

The Caucasus of the Second Half of the 19th Century through the Eyes of a Russian Merchant: From the Travel Notes of Mikhail Konstantinovich Sidorov

The article studies a historical source that previously was not in the focus of research - travel notes of the outstanding Russian merchant of the 19th century, gold miner, and discoverer of the Northern Sea Route Mikhail Konstantinovich Sidorov, which he wrote during a trip to the North Caucasus and Transcaucasia in August – September 1878. It aims to analyze the notes, characterize their content, and reveal the information potential for further study of the processes that took place among the forming Russian bourgeoisie in the post-reform period and testifying to the interest of Russian capital in the study and economic development of the outskirts of the empire. The research relies on the intellectual history approach, which involves the study of the mentality, the emergence and subsequent transformation of various ideas and cultural orientations inherent in a particular social stratum, in this case, the Russian merchant class. The travelogue provides valuable information characterizing the methods of work of its author, who already had extensive experience in the exploration and development of ore and oil fields in Siberia and the lower reaches of the Pechora, in collecting and recording primary information about minerals located in the region, local mining and manufacturing enterprises, his range of interests and, to some extent, ideological attitudes (in particular, adherence to the ideals of the Russian Orthodox Church). The surviving notes are, first of all, a brief fixation of what was seen, necessary for subsequent comprehension and generalization in the form of articles and reports, as well as formulations of practical recommendations on the prospects for further economic development of the territories that recently became part of the Russian Empire. In addition to information about the economic capacities of the region, M. K. Sidorov’s notes reflect the author’s impressions of visiting several local towns and villages, exploring natural and historical attractions, communicating with residents of different ethnicities. As a whole, the source under consideration expands the anthology of diaries and memoirs known to date that have arisen among the Russian peasantry, contains information about the economic and socio-cultural state of the Caucasus in the second half of the 19th century, emphasizes the interest and active participation of Russian business circles in the study and economic development of the region.

A data-driven risk assessment of Arctic maritime incidents: Using machine learning to predict incident types and identify risk factors

The rise in Arctic temperatures has caused sea ice to melt, making the region more navigable through a new, shorter shipping route. Navigating the Arctic poses high risks due to extreme environmental conditions. This study proposes scalable data-driven predictive models to assess the risk of Arctic navigation under uncertain weather and sea ice conditions. Machine learning is applied to predict the type of Arctic incidents and identify their risk factors. Several models are investigated, and the most accurate model for the two Arctic routes, the North West Passage (NWP) and the Northern Sea Route (NSR), is determined based on several validation metrics. Random forest and Naïve Bayes models provide the best accuracy and F1-score for NWP and NSR, respectively. The wind speed, vessel type, length, and age are important risk factors for NWP while temperature at 2 m above the surface, vessel length, and age are important for NSR. Partial dependence plots are used to investigate the effect of each feature on predicting each incident type. Equipment failures are more common among newer and longer vessels. Collision related incidents are more likely to be predicted for longer vessels, while grounding related incidents are more frequent at higher air temperature.

Northern Siberian Trade Route and Polar Urals Railway. Part 2

A reproduced article published in the journal «Zheleznodorozhnoe delo» in 1912 is devoted to a project to build a railway line linking the river network of Siberia (approximately from the current Salekhard to the Ob) with the Arctic coast in Varandey region, where it was supposed to build a seaport.Regardless of the fact that development of the transport infrastructure of the Polar Urals and the North of the European part of Russia eventually went the other way, the economic geography, the foreign trade balance changed, the article is interesting in the historical aspect by the balanced and verified approach to the comprehensive assessment of complex transport projects that was developed more than 110 years ago and their feasibility study. The authors of the project under consideration took into account, when arguing, many factors – of a strategic nature (development of the Siberian region, reduction of the transport load on the backbone transport network of the European part of the country, minimization of competition between domestic producers along the route of goods flows), foreign trade flows, seasonality of navigation along rivers and the Northern Sea Route, technical and economic aspects of construction, distribution of private and public investments, projected optimal tariffs and taxation, payback periods, taking into account payment of dividends, and many others.Of course, the content of factors taken into account and assessment methods have changed significantly since then. One of the paradoxes is that, despite new technologies, modern engineers already assess the risks and difficulties of building in the subpolar zone much higher, which at the beginning of the last century was considered almost an easy and cheaper option for building a railway.In general, we must give credit to the authors for complexity of their approaches, taking into account the time when they were made.

Impacts of Arctic Sea Fog on the Change of Route Planning and Navigational Efficiency in the Northeast Passage during the First Two Decades of the 21st Century

Under the background of climate change, the Northeast Passage’s navigability is on the rise. Arctic sea fog significantly influences navigational efficiency in this region. Existing research primarily focuses on routes accumulating the lowest distance, neglecting routes with the lowest time and sea fog’s influence on route planning and navigational efficiency. This study compares the fastest and shortest routes and analyzes Arctic sea fog’s impact on the Northeast Passage from June to September (2001–2020). The results show that coastal areas are covered with less sea ice under notable monthly variations. Sea fog frequency is highest near coasts, declining with latitude. September offers optimal navigation conditions due to minimal ice and fog. When only sea ice is considered, the fastest route is approximately 4 days quicker than the shortest. The shortest route has migrated towards the higher latitude over two decades, while the fastest route remains closer to the Russian coast. Adding the impact of sea fog on the fastest route, the speed decreased by 30.2%, increasing sailing time to 45.1%. The new fastest route considering both sea ice and sea fog achieved a 13.9% increase in sailing speed and an 11.5% reduction in sailing time compared to the original fastest route.

Review of schemes for transport-geographical zoning of the Arctic water area

The retrospective and modern schemes for geographic and transport zoning of the Arctic and the Northern Sea Route are examined. The historical research method, which consists in identifying and analyzing documented facts, historical processes and their logic in terms of clarifying development, is used. There are several stages in the formation of zones and areas in the waters of the Arctic seas. The time period chosen for the review is from the beginning of the 19th century to the present in chronological order. International relations, national legal and natural conditions, and country characteristics are taken into account. The evolution of the organizational structure for managing the operation of the transport system of the Northern Sea Route, from the creation of the first administration to the present day, is considered. The countries of the Arctic Council have not yet developed a uniform approach to such tasks as the classification of ice (ice conditions) and requirements for the design of a vessel (ship ice class). Most countries use the definitions from the Polar Code. Individual countries apply their own rules and classification. The Russian Federation, for example, when choosing criteria for the admission of ships, uses both the national classification (Arc4-Arc9) and the Baltic one (Ice1-Ice3), while recognizing the ice classes of ships according to the International Association of Classification Societies. The results of a comparison of the Arctic Council countries on the presence of signs for development of transport-geographical zoning and navigation management in the Polar waters are presented. In conclusion, a list of tasks, the solution of which will contribute to the future transition from geographical to transport zoning of the Northern Sea Route and the Polar waters as a whole, is provided.

The tasks for bathymetric investigations and cartographic support of the northern sea high latitude routes in the East Siberian Sea

The current state and issues of bathymetric investigations of the East Siberian Sea are examined in this study. The main sources of bathymetric data are characterized. The possibilities to solve these issues in order to improve the efficiency of the oncoming bathymetric investigation in the East Siberian Sea for supporting the urgent practical tasks of the Russian Federation concerning the Northern Sea high latitude routes are discussed. The importance of a new hydrographic investigation through the high latitude routes in the East Siberian Sea in order to provide the possibility of year-round navigation of the large-tonnage Arc7‑class icebreaking LNG carriers is especially emphasized. Compiling of the new coastal electronic navigation charts for the new Northern Sea high latitude routes is stated as one of the main priorities. The lack of coastal electronic navigation charts of the high latitude routes in the East Siberian Sea will present a challenge for the establishing of year-round navigation for high ice-capable Arc7‑class LNG carriers during the coming several years. The drafting of high latitude routes must also consider the seafloor gas venting in the East Siberian Sea. The satellite remote sensing data from passive microwave radiometers and optical sensors using «modis & amsr2» technology provided by the University of Bremen ensures the complementary observations of sea ice concentration in the eastern part of the East Siberian Sea. The re-analysis of data from microwave radiometers AMSR‑2 beginning from 2018 provides the conclusion about the autumn degradation of the Aion ice massif. The analysis of the sea-ice concentration of the Aion ice massif during autumn–winter of 2022, the most severe in the last 5 years, allows us to give a recommendation concerning the new high latitude route in the East Siberian Sea. This route passes along the northern coast of Vrangel island into the Chukchi Sea and it is more efficient for large-tonnage Arc7‑class icebreaking LNG carriers ensuring year-round navigation in the East Siberian Sea. It is stated that hydrographic investigations carried out on the sections of the Northern Sea Route must adhere to the requirements of the International Hydrographic Organization. The urgency of developing the state integrated bathymetric database for the Arctic Ocean including the Arctic Seas data along with the necessity of providing all Russian bathymetric data acquired in the Arctic region to the assigned national centre is discussed. The FKU 280 ZKP VMF is proposed as such national centre. The importance of coastal electronic navigation charts for the high latitude routes in the East Siberian Sea created on the basis of modern technology is emphasized.

Projected emissions and climate impacts of Arctic shipping along the Northern Sea Route

The navigability of Arctic maritime passages has improved with the rapid retreat of sea ice in recent decades, and it is projected that the Northern Sea Route (NSR) will support further increases in shipping in the future. However, the opening of the NSR may bring potential environmental and climate risks to the Arctic and the rest of the world. This investigation assessed shipping emissions along the NSR and the climate impacts under global warming of 2 °C and 3 °C to support coordinated international decision-making. The results show that the magnitude of annual energy consumption of ships along the NSR is 109 kWh under global warming of 2 °C and 3 °C. The environmental impacts of the shipping decrease with fuel transition to clean, carbon-neutral fuel sources. Specifically, the maximum emission is CO2 (106 t), followed by NOX (104−5 t), CO (103−4 t), SOX (103 t), CH4 (102−3 t), organic carbon (102−3 t), N2O (101−2 t), and black carbon (BC, 101−2 t), in which CO2 and BC have great difference under high and low loads. Total emission exacerbates Arctic and global warming, and it is more significant in the Arctic in the next twenty years and across the rest of the world in the next one hundred years. The greatest climate impact factor is CO2, followed by NOX and BC which are more important in global and Arctic warming, respectively.

Northern Siberian Trade Route and Polar Urals Railway. Part 1

A reproduced article published in the journal «Zheleznodorozhnoe delo» in 1912 is devoted to a project to build a railway linking the fluvial network of Siberia (approximately from the nowadays Salekhard to the Ob) with the Arctic coast in Varandey district, where it was supposed to build a seaport.Although development of the transport infrastructure of the Polar Urals and the North of the European part of Russia eventually went the other way, the economic geography, the foreign trade balance changed, the article is of interest in its historical aspect by the balanced and detail-focused approach to the comprehensive assessment of complex transport projects that was developed more than 110 years ago and their feasibility study. The authors of the project under consideration took into account, when arguing, many factors – of a strategic nature (development of the Siberian region, reduction of the transport load on the backbone transport network of the European part of the country, minimisation of competition between domestic producers along the route of goods flows), foreign trade flows, seasonality of navigation along rivers and the Northern Sea Route, technical and economic aspects of construction, distribution of private and public investments, projected optimal tariffs and taxation, payback periods, taking into account payment of dividends, and many others.Of course, the content of factors taken into account and assessment methods have changed significantly since then. One of the paradoxes is that, despite new technologies, modern engineers already assess the risks and difficulties of building in the subpolar zone much higher, while at the beginning of the last century this area was considered almost an easy and cheaper option for building a railway.In general, we must give credit to the authors for complexity of their approaches, taking into account the time when they were made.The authentic style, punctuation, lexis of the time have been preserved as maximum as possible while reproducing the article.Part 2 is to be published in the next issue.

«С глубочайшим почтением и совершеннейшею преданностию»: из переписки купца М. К. Сидорова с первым епископом Енисейским и Красноярским Никодимом (Казанцевым) (1860-е гг.)

The publication of two letters of the famous merchant, discoverer of the Northern Sea Route Mikhail Konstantinovich Sidorov to the first Yeniseisk and Krasnoyarsk bishop Nikodim (Kazantsev) is presented. The surviving texts dating back to the 1860s testify to the trusting relationship between these two outstanding contemporaries, emphasize their worldview and range of interests. Among the subjects mentioned in the letters there are M.K. Sidorov's donations in favor of the spiritual educational institutions of the Yeniseisk diocese, his service as an honorary guardian of the Krasnoyarsk Religious School, related with that requests of the archpastor, a conflict around the Yeniseisk Convent. At the same time, their communication was not limited exclusively to issues of church life. The bishop was aware of M.K. Sidorov's plans to search for passage through the northern seas and supported this initiative. As the Yeniseisk archpastor, he was particularly interested in the state of the territory of the diocese entrusted to him in the lower reaches of the Yenisei – the Turukhansk Region. The versatility of Bishop Nikodim's personality is emphasized by the mention of his works on the publication of the biography of the Siberian First Martyr Vasily Mangazeyskiy, as well as the telescope sent to him by M.K. Sidorov – a necessary attribute in long journeys to unfamiliar places. Among other things, the letters contain the names of a number of well-known statesmen, high church hierarchs, and large entrepreneurs, which characterizes the correspondents' acquaintances and connections, their social position.

People in the North: Guidelines for Social Policy of the Soviet State in the Arctic (1920s — 1930s)

The article examines the social problems of the development of the Arctic in the early Soviet period. The features of the social policy of the Soviet state in relation to the indigenous peoples of the northern territories are shown. The contradiction between the desire of the Soviet state to introduce the principles of socialism into the daily life of aborigines and the real level of socio-economic development of the indigenous peoples of the North is revealed. The living conditions of the non-indigenous population in the territories adjacent to the Northern Sea Route are considered. It is concluded that the solution of the problems of the social policy of the Soviet state in the process of developing the Arctic was subordinated to the main task of launching and operating the Northern Sea Route.

The Russian Arctic in 2022–2023. New Solutions

The article presents the results of a study of the latest changes in the territory of the most unique macro-region of Russia – the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation. In 2022–2023, socio-political, economic, social and even mental transformations affected all spatial components of our federal state and, especially, the subjects of the Federation and municipalities on the territory of the Russian Arctic. During this period, the country’s leadership, under unprecedented sanctions pressure, managed to urgently adjust the decades-old diplomatic and foreign economic ties and make extraordinary state decisions that stimulate economic activity in all types of economic activities. An example of the effectiveness of this is the innovations in the Russian Arctic, which have become an indicative model of the new course of the development of our state, combining the freedom of market relations and powerful state regulation of the economy, the desire for economic sovereignty and active interstate cooperation, constructive social policy and the imperative nature of spiritual and moral values. Today, what is happening in the Russian Arctic is extremely multidimensional, and therefore, in the limited text space of this article, only a summary assessment of the situation is given and the latest issues of the work of the Northern Sea Route and the Northern Delivery are considered. The Reinformation basis of the study was official documents and publications of 2022–2023.

Genetic features of bivalve transmissible neoplasia in blue mussels from the Kola Bay (Barents Sea) suggest a recent trans-Arctic migration of the cancer lineages.

Ecology and biogeography of bivalve transmissible neoplasia (BTN) are underexplored due to its recent discovery and a challenging diagnostics. Blue mussels harbour two evolutionary lineages of BTN, MtrBTN1 and MtrBTN2, both derived from Mytilus trossulus. MtrBTN1 has been found only in M. trossulus from North Pacific. MtrBTN2 parasitizes different Mytilus spp. worldwide. BTN in M. trossulus in the Atlantic sector has never been studied. We looked for BTN in mussels from the Barents Sea using flow cytometry of cells, qPCR with primers specific to cancer-associated alleles and sequencing of mtDNA and nuclear loci. Both MtrBTN1 and MtrBTN2 were present in our material, though their prevalence was low (~0.4%). All cancers parasitized M. trossulus except one, MtrBTN1, which was found in a hybrid between M. trossulus and M. edulis. The mtDNA haplotypes found in both lineages were nearly identical to those known from the Northwest Pacific but not from elsewhere. Our results suggest that these two lineages may have arrived in the Barents Sea in recent decades with the maritime transport along the Northern Sea Route. A young evolutionary age of MtrBTN1 seems to indicate that it is an emerging disease in the process of niche expansion. Comparing the new and the published sequence data on tumour suppressor p53, we proved that the prevalence of BTN in mussels can reach epizootic levels. The finding of diverse recombinants between paternally and maternally inherited mtDNAs in somatic tissues of M. trossulus was an unexpected result of our study.

Stochastic Modeling of Sea Ice Concentration to Assess Navigation Conditions along the Northern Sea Route

Stochastic Modeling of Sea Ice Concentration to Assess Navigation Conditions along the Northern Sea Route

Feasibility of the Northern Sea route with the effect of emission control measures

Feasibility of the Northern Sea route with the effect of emission control measures

Kazakhstan and the Northern Sea Route: Problems and Prospects

The article is devoted to the analysis of the transit potential of the transboundary river Irtysh to the north towards the Arctic. Landlocked Kazakhstan is making efforts to develop new transport routes thanks to its access to the largest river system. This route connects China, Kazakhstan and Russia, and also gives access to the possibilities of the Northern Sea Route. It should be noted that Kazakhstan constantly needs to diversify transport corridors for export and import. The escalation of the international situation once again emphasized the vulnerability of international agreements in the sphere of transit of goods and resources. If the development of the trans-Caspian international transport route has become a solution and an answer to a sudden onset problem, then the development of the Irtysh route has prospects and opportunities for the future, in the long term. Despite the long-term prospects of the Irtysh transit route, there is a need to carry out analysis and preparatory work already now for development of a new direction in the future.