Impact of the Primorsky International Transport Corridor on the hinterland competition between ports in Northeast China and Russian Far East

Abstract

The Primorsky International Transport Corridor (PITC) is considered an important component for connecting the Eurasian Economic Union and the Belt and Road Initiative. However, its development will change the existing transportation and port networks among neighboring countries or regions, which could potentially lead to hinterland competition between regional ports. From the perspective of shippers' route selection for import and export goods, this paper examines the impact of the PITC on the hinterland competition between Russian Far East Ports and Northeast China Ports by establishing a generalized land-sea combined transportation cost model. Furthermore, using the method of scenario analysis, this paper predicts and analyzes the evolution of the hinterland of Russian Far East Ports and Northeast China Ports, and assesses the impact of PITC on port accessibility in Northeast China. It is found that the hinterland competition between Dalian port and Far East ports will intensify with the construction of PITC. If the PITC construction enters a mature stage and the Northern Sea Route is opened in the future, Far East ports will capture more than 60% of the foreign market in Northeast China and Europe trade. The port transshipment efficiency is a key factor affecting the performance of the PITC and port hinterland.