Northern Sea Route Research Articles

Особенности оценки неопределенности и риска при управлении безопасностью критических инфраструктур Северного морского пути

The main focus of the work is on the issues of managing the safety of the socio-economic and transport and logistics infrastructures of the Arctic zone and the Northern Sea Route. Current development trends affecting assessments of uncertainty and risk are considered. It is proposed that plans and prospects for project implementation be assessed from the point of view of their vulnerability and feasibility. Such reflective analysis should be “built into” the safety management information system. Proper consideration of uncertainty and risk is intended to help improve the viability of critical infrastructures.

Prospects for the development of the Northern Sea Route after February 2022: An analysis of Russia's policy in the new conditions

This paper aims to evaluate Russian state policy towards the development of the Northern Sea Route with all the political, economic, and financial challenges that followed the war between Russia and Ukraine after February 2022. Much attention has been paid to the new plan of the development of the Northern Sea Route until 2035, adopted by the Government in August 2022 since this is a strategic document serving as a starting point in the analysis of Russia's long-term goals in the Arctic. The analysis shows that the Russian authorities do not want to downgrade the importance and potential of Arctic development, including the Northern Sea Route, although demand for Russian oil and gas is declining except in China and a few other countries, and Russia is having difficulties acquiring essential technologies from developed countries. The Russian Government appears to be more focused on the domestic purpose of the Northern Sea Route, i.e., maintaining the local economy in the Arctic region, including cabotage transportation (shipping between two Russian ports) and northern supply (severnyi zavoz).

Methodology for zoning the Northern Sea Route water area during salvage and rescue operations and oil spill response

A methodology for assessing the possibility of ensuring salvage and rescue operations and oil and oil product spills response throughout the entire water area of the Northern Sea Route has been proposed. From 2024, it is planned to systematically develop year-round navigation along the Northern Sea Route, which will be associated with the need to ensure safety. At the moment, this possibility is severely limited due to the lack of multifunctional vessels of high ice class and technical means for spills response in ices. The methodological basis for determining the response time to marine oil spills in the Polar waters is laid down in the Polar Code, documents of the Maritime Safety Committee of the International Maritime Organization and documents of the Arctic Council, but their application is determined only by the hydrometeorological and geographical conditions at the place of the accident liquidation. Despite their broad and practical focus, the proposed approaches are only of a general methodological nature, which does not take into account the peculiarities of navigation in the waters of the Northern Sea Route, its length and zoning. The developed methodology largely overcomes these limitations and allows, at a qualitative level, to zone the waters of the Northern Sea Route according to three classification criteria. Two model examples are provided in the paper. The first example assumes that shipping occurs only in the western part of the Northern Sea Route, i. e. in the Kara Sea, the Ob Bay and the Yenisei Gulf, and in the eastern sector, shipping is completely absent; the second example assumes that navigation occurs throughout the entire water area. For each option under study, the entire water area is zoned according to the level of readiness, which is assessed as “high”, “medium” and “low” and depends on the presence of icebreakers and multifunctional vessels in the area. In the future, this methodology can be supplemented by an assessment of other factors, such as the influence of hydrometeorological conditions, ice conditions, navigation risks, forecasting the intensity of shipping and the selection of the necessary technical means for oil and petroleum product spills response.

Change trends of mean ice thickness, water level, and surface salinity in the Laptev Sea in winter-spring period under further climate warming conditions

he purpose of the paper is to identify the most likely trends in interannual changes of the ice cover thickness on sections of the Northern Sea Route in the Laptev Sea in the winter-spring months under conditions of further climate warming. A hypothesis that in the modern period such changes can be significantly impacted by melting of submarine permafrost layers located inside the sea shelf, — a process caused by their heat exchange with bottom sea waters, is put forward. To verify the hypothesis, trends in interannual changes in ice thickness are compared with trends in variations in sea level and surface salinity. As factual material, data from the global reanalysis GLORYS12v1 is used. The research methodology is based on the standard methods of mathematical statistics. A correlation between the trends of the above processes has been found. It allows us to confirm the hypothesis put forward. The results obtained indicate that, under the conditions of ongoing climate warming, there remains a high probability that the average thickness of the ice cover will not decrease, and the ice situation in the Laptev Sea in the winter-spring months will not improve significantly. The latter confirms the need and feasibility of further development of the Russian icebreaker fleet

Potential benefits of climate change on navigation in the northern sea route by 2050

Climate change has been inducing a continuous increase in temperatures within the Arctic region, consequently leading to an escalation in the rates of Arctic ice depletion. These changes have profound implications for navigation along the Arctic Northern Sea Route (NSR). However, access to the NSR is constrained to specific temporal intervals when the sea ice thickness reaches a threshold that permits safe passage of ships. This research employs climate change model simulations and the Polar Operational Limit Assessment Risk Indexing System framework to investigate the navigational feasibility of diverse ship types along NSR during the calendar years 2030, 2040, and 2050, under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Different ship categories were analyzed within the context of these two scenarios. Results indicate considerable variation in the navigability of different ship categories across different scenarios and years. In general, polar ships demonstrate a higher navigational potential throughout most of the year, while pleasure crafts are constrained to specific periods. These findings bear significant implications for the future of shipping along the NSR. As Arctic ice continues to melt, NSR is anticipated to become more accessible to ships, albeit with navigational availability remaining contingent on the ship category and seasonal considerations.

Vitalizing logistics strategies for Tiksi Port using the interpretive structural modelling method

Tiksi Port is a Russian seaport located on the Laptev Sea shore in the Central Arctic region and holds potential as a crucial and versatile hub for the improvement of the Eastern Arctic sector. It is one of the main ports on the Northern Sea Route and can potentially become the primary point for transporting various types of cargo. Currently, Tiksi Port is shallow and incapable of receiving large sea vessels and although it was initially equipped with handling equipment, signs of decline are visible. This study aims to identify the critical logistics elements of Tiksi Port and classify them according to their level of significance in vitalizing the logistics activities of the port for further practical use. Interpretive Structural Modelling and the Matrix of Cross Impacts Multiplication Applied to a Classification (MICMAC) method was used in this study. The study findings revealed ten factors that appeared at three levels of importance. According to the analysis results, “combating oil spills” was present at Level 3, which is the first and most fundamental level to be improved. Tiksi Port officials and government ministries can use these results as a reference for development and to support the establishment of a cost-effective and agile logistics system for related companies.

ТРАНСПОРТНО-ЛОГИСТИЧЕСКОЕ ОБЕСПЕЧЕНИЕ БЕЗОПАСНОСТИ В АРКТИКЕ

The article analyzes the specifics of the priorities of the Russian Federation in the direction of ensuring security in the Arctic. The national transport communication in the designated region is considered – the Northern sea route, the functioning of which is provided by a modern nuclear icebreaker fleet. The author, based on logistics efficiency indicators, draws attention to the availability of material and technical means, 
 in order to ensure the competitiveness of trade operations. Concludes that Russia is rapidly increasing its potential despite the difficult geopolitical situation. There is an increase in cargo turnover of seaports in the arctic basin due to bulk (dangerous) cargo, which requires the development of legal provisions aimed at damping adverse consequences and possible harm to the ecosystem of the Arctic, the waters of the Northern sea route. In conclusion, options for adapting the regulatory framework to modern conditions are proposed, which, according to the author, will have a beneficial effect on ensuring security in the Arctic.

ОБЕСПЕЧЕНИЕ НАЦИОНАЛЬНОЙ БЕЗОПАСНОСТИ В РАМКАХ ИСПОЛЬЗОВАНИЯ СЕВЕРНОГО МОРСКОГО ПУТИ

The article is devoted to the study of the problems of the importance of using the Northern sea route. The normative acts defining the international legal regime for the use of the most important straits used in the modern world are being studied. The problems of economic efficiency and safety of the use of the Northern sea route are investigated. The article examines the history of the normative consolidation of Russia's sovereign rights to polar possessions in the Arctic and the operation of the Northern sea route.

Organizational features of ensuring the stability of the movement of passengers and cargo along the Northern Sea Route on the basis of restrictions on the use of Arctic aviation.

The movement of passengers and cargo along the Northern Sea Route requires the organization of support for navigation from many services on the continent. Ensuring the stability of the movement of passengers and cargo on high routes of the Northern Sea Route is a problem that needs a comprehensive solution. The article presents the author’s approach to the rational spatial organization of airfields in the aviation infrastructure of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation necessary to achieve the goal and solve the problems of ensuring the stability of the movement of passengers and cargo on high routes of the Northern Sea Route. Both organizational and technical and economic requirements for the organization of support for the movement of passengers and cargo following the upper routes of the NSR with the use of Arctic-type helicopters are disclosed.

International legal means of protecting the historical rights of Russia in the waters of the Northern sea route

Provocative actions of the United States of America in Arctic waters stimulate the Russian Federation to take steps to strengthen the legal regime of the Northern Sea Route. At the same time, Russia must rely on indisputable historical rights and focus on the legal experience of another large Arctic state – Canada, which defends its sovereignty in the waters of the Northwest Passage. At the same time, the Russian Federation has an extensive arsenal of legal means at its disposal. In addition to the provisions of the 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea – legal customs, historical title, environmental jurisdiction.

An environmental and economic investigation of shipping network configuration considering the maritime emission trading scheme

Decarbonization is currently an urgent issue for the international shipping industry. The maritime Emission Trading Scheme (METS) is an effective measure, while the utilization of the Arctic Northeast Passage (NEP) and carriers' profit-driven reactions may affect its effectiveness. Thus, this paper proposed an optimization model to investigate the carrier's economic viability and the CO2 emission under METS for the SCR/NEP-combined liner shipping service. Various METS scenarios are set based on 1) geographical scope (GS), 2) free emission quota percentage (FEQP), and 3) carbon price (CP). Results show that METS would guarantee a short-term CO2 emission reduction within the GS, but the volume of overall CO2 emission in some scenarios would be even larger. In individual cases, METS positively affects the carrier's economic viability. METS disincentivizes carriers to use the NEP, especially when it is implemented in the Arctic area or with high pricing. For carriers, the main countermeasure to cope with METS is slow steaming in the GS. Some valuable insights for policymakers designing METS: it is not the case that the higher the value of GS/FEQP/CP, the better the overall CO2 emission reduction effect. A moderate GS and CP may be appropriate for balancing carriers' economic benefits and emission reduction efficiency, in whole or in part. FEQP can be set relatively low at the start of METS and raised gradually to motivate the carriers in emission control.

Application of small spacecraft for automatic identification of vessels

The work is devoted to the development of a specialized complex based on a CubeSat 3U nanosatellite for receiving and processing signals from the AIS system. With the help of such system, it is planned to form a domestic AIS space constellation. The urgency is connected with the current absence of the Russian Federation’s own satellite means of obtaining AIS data for monitoring the movement of ships in the world’s oceans and in its own water area. Access to this data is becoming critical in connection with the development of the Northern Sea Route and the development of shipping in the Azov, Black Seas and the Far East.

Сухой порт Северного морского пути в концепции формирования Урало-Арктического сектора России

Russia strives to develop its Arctic territories and projects for their integrated use, as well as the Northern Sea Route. These tasks can be solved by prioritising the connectivity of Russian regions. The article presents a strategic analysis and conceptual justification of the project “Dry port of Ekaterinburg”, which was created in 2022. The study proved that the project has been gaining importance during implementation as an element of the emerging Ural-Arctic sector of Russia, acting as an aqua-territorial system and a specific object of spatial development. The concept of a dry port on the Northern Sea Route (a system of complementary ports) was proposed. The uniqueness of the dry port on the Northern Sea Route (level I subsystem) in the middle megaregion due to its scale was assumed. Examination of the Greater Urals megaregion confirmed that Ekaterinburg should be at the top of the hierarchy of the dry port system considering Arctic factors and formation patterns of the supporting framework of intersecting transport corridors. Methods of spatial and economic analysis, synthesis of distributed systems, system modelling were utilised. The authors proposed a multi-criteria ranking of planned railway lines between Ural regions and ports on the Northern Sea Route under fundamentally incomplete and unreliable source data. The following criteria were used in the ranking: diversification, cargo formation, resource and technological capacity building, transport accessibility, and project investment financing. The ranking results revealed that a new railway line connecting the Northern Urals with the multifunctional Indiga port under construction on the Northern Sea Route is seen as preferable. The study offered a reasonable set of proposals for implementing the Ural-Arctic dry port in the Middle Urals.

Sino-Russian cooperation on the Ice Silk Road project in the context of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict

This article examines the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict on Sino-Russian cooperation, analyzes the Chinese Ice Silk Road project and the development of the Russian Northern Sea Route, and based on the above analysis, predicts the further course of cooperation between China and Russia on the Ice Silk Road project. The subject of the study is the Chinese-Russian cooperation on the Ice Silk Road project in the context of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. The object of the study is Chinese-Russian cooperation. The author examines in detail such aspects of the topic as the problems of international relations caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine; exchange and cooperation between China and Russia against the background of the conflict, as well as determining the trend of future cooperation between the two countries. Special attention is paid to the situation in the Chinese-Russian Ice Silk Road project against the background of the conflict, analysis and forecast of the possibility of cooperation between the two countries on this project in the future. This article uses the method of system theory, considers Sino-Russian relations as an integral part of the system of international relations, Sino-Russian cooperation on the Ice Silk Road project as a level below the level of Sino-Russian relations, and the Russian-Ukrainian conflict as a change of circumstances. The Russian-Ukrainian conflict has exacerbated the polarization of the world. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine did not have too much impact on Sino-Russian cooperation and even introduced favorable factors into Sino-Russian cooperation, the economic sphere will be the main area of cooperation between the two countries. The conflict directly deprives Russia of its Western partners in the Northern Sea Route, and also further distances China from its Western partners in the Ice Silk Road project. The development of the Russian "Northern Sea Route" urgently needs other countries to fill the gap left by Western countries. Continuing further cooperation in the Ice Silk Road project is a reasonable choice. In the next period of time, China opened a window of opportunity for in-depth cooperation with Russia on the Ice Silk Road project. In the future, China is likely to achieve cooperation with Russia, in addition to energy cooperation in the development of the Russian "Northern Sea Route", such as technical cooperation and other cooperation.

Detection of potential reservoirs of the Mezen syneclise of the Eastern European platform

The possibility of discovering new hydrocarbon deposits within the north-eastern segment of the European part of Russia will reduce the cost of transporting hydrocarbons to major industrial centres. And access to Russia’s most important transport artery, the Northern Sea Route, in the context of the growing importance of the tanker fleet and reorientation of sales markets proves the need to build up the region’s resource base. However, it is necessary to take into account the environmental and climatic risks associated with hydrocarbon production in the Arctic conditions, as well as their transport. This paper presents the data of paleoreconstructions of sedimentation settings of Precambrian sedimentary strata in the light of updating the history of development of the Mezen-Belomr region and studying the reservoir properties of the Riphean-Wendian part of the sedimentary cover section. As a result, formations with enhanced filtration-capacity properties were identified. The Vendian part of the section is characterised by good values of open porosity (up to 20.89%).

Arctic waters: port Sabetta development

Port Sabetta, located in the Russian Arctic along the Northern Sea Route, epitomizes the intersection of geopolitical interests, economic imperatives, and environmental challenges in the Arctic region. The article provides a comprehensive analysis of Port Sabetta's development, focusing on its environmental impact, socio-economic implications, and comparative analysis with other Arctic and non-Arctic ports. The geopolitical context and economic significance of Port Sabetta are explored, highlighting its strategic importance in Russia's Arctic strategy and global energy dynamics. An environmental impact assessment reveals the ecological risks associated with port construction, maritime operations, and industrial activities, emphasizing the need for proactive mitigation measures and regulatory oversight. The socio-economic implications of Port Sabetta's development are examined, including its effects on local communities, regional economies, and indigenous livelihoods. Case studies and comparative analysis of Arctic and non-Arctic ports provide insights into best practices and lessons learned for sustainable port development. The sustainable development of Port Sabetta requires a holistic approach that balances economic growth with environmental protection, social equity, and geopolitical stability.

Length of Navigation Season in Current Conditions of Climate Change on the Northern Sea Route

Length of Navigation Season in Current Conditions of Climate Change on the Northern Sea Route

Northern sea route: present climate and future projections

Northern sea route: present climate and future projections

Trends of Opening and Closing date for Navigation on the Northern Sea Route in the Light of Changes in Ice Cover on the Seas of the Siberian Shelf in the Years 2008-2022

Trends of Opening and Closing date for Navigation on the Northern Sea Route in the Light of Changes in Ice Cover on the Seas of the Siberian Shelf in the Years 2008-2022

Арктиканың көліктік-транзиттік әлеуеті және Қытай: проблемалар, мүмкіндіктер және перспективалар

The Arctic region, with its changing climate and shrinking sea ice, has significant potential for transport and transit activities, especially for countries looking for new trade routes and resource exploration opportunities. This article examines the transport and transit potential of the Arctic and its significance for China. Particular attention is paid to the Arctic routes, including the Northern Sea Route, the Transpolar Sea Route and the Northwest Passage. In addition, the paper examines China's involvement in the development of Arctic infrastructure, as well as the potential benefits and future prospects for China in the use of Arctic transport routes. Through in-depth analysis, this article elucidates the evolving dynamics of transport and transit in the Arctic and its implications for China's economic and strategic interests.