Change trends of mean ice thickness, water level, and surface salinity in the Laptev Sea in winter-spring period under further climate warming conditions

Abstract

he purpose of the paper is to identify the most likely trends in interannual changes of the ice cover thickness on sections of the Northern Sea Route in the Laptev Sea in the winter-spring months under conditions of further climate warming. A hypothesis that in the modern period such changes can be significantly impacted by melting of submarine permafrost layers located inside the sea shelf, — a process caused by their heat exchange with bottom sea waters, is put forward. To verify the hypothesis, trends in interannual changes in ice thickness are compared with trends in variations in sea level and surface salinity. As factual material, data from the global reanalysis GLORYS12v1 is used. The research methodology is based on the standard methods of mathematical statistics. A correlation between the trends of the above processes has been found. It allows us to confirm the hypothesis put forward. The results obtained indicate that, under the conditions of ongoing climate warming, there remains a high probability that the average thickness of the ice cover will not decrease, and the ice situation in the Laptev Sea in the winter-spring months will not improve significantly. The latter confirms the need and feasibility of further development of the Russian icebreaker fleet